核 心 观 点 货币更注重与财政协同。 政府预计仍是2026年加杠杆的主体，而央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政 府加杠杆放缓的时段维持利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将继续压降；二是 央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期 变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 广义财政扩张稳投资。 中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥 新增专项债作用，以"新基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在中长期促进产业转 型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。 商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支持扩大供给。个体补贴缩量、全国统一补贴标 准，或是在高效利用宝贵财政资源的出发点上，考虑到补贴对存量受惠群体的效用或边际下降，对增量受惠群 体的效用或较高，以图惠及更多消费者、保持较高的政策效用而提出的。发展服务消费或需要更重视优质服务 供给，顺应当前商品消费倾向下滑、服务消费韧性较强、新消费广受关注的消费趋势。 三、反内卷：治标过后要治本，清理欠款稳经营 标准引领落后产能出清，清理欠款减轻企业 ...

来源：世界晋商论坛 12月12日，首届中国会长圆桌会（第三期）在北京成功召开。本次会议以"双碳目标下，绿色基建与循 环经济的创新实践与协同路径"为主题，由中国社会组织促进会主办，中国社会组织促进会行业协会商 会分会承办，喜跃发集团协办。 会议汇聚了来自公路建设、市政工程、房地产、煤炭、交通、机械工业、民用机场、节能环保及饭店业 等15个行业的国家级协会负责人，以及交通部、住建部、发改委等有关部委及科研院所的专家领导，共 话绿色基建与循环经济的发展趋势与实践路径。中国社会组织促进会会长杨岳出席并讲话，副秘书长贾 卫主持会议。中国社会组织促进会行业协会商会分会总干事李有生介绍活动背景、意义及出席嘉宾，中 国社会组织促进会副会长、喜跃发集团董事长刘跃代表主办单位致辞。 中国社会组织促进会会长杨岳讲话 中国社会组织促进会副秘书长贾卫主持会议 中国社会组织促进会行业协会商会分会总干事李有生介绍活动背景、意义及出席嘉宾 2 案例分享：技术创新推动产业循环 喜跃发集团副总经理李俊锋分享了企业在绿色基建领域的实践成果。集团通过100%固废冷拌冷铺技 术、工业固废资源化利用，从源头降低碳排放；推广预防性养护等低碳工艺，减少施工 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 存量挖潜，宽松深入——中央经济工作会议点评 团队成员 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。我们认为，政策 层面对经济运行中的挑战有明确认识，明年经济工作重点将是优化供 给，存量挖潜，财政货币双扩张，实现更大政策效能促进增长和物价 回升，政策评估兼顾存量和增量确保协同，增加居民收入扩大消费， 中央财政扩张维稳投资，以提质优化为主线促进产业健康发展，以绿 色基建促进能源转型和效益改善，防风险指引更加清晰明确。 直面挑战，顶压前行 政策层面能够直面经济运行中的挑战，对风险和机遇建立清晰认 识并着力解决。在经济转型高质量发展的过渡期，对于供给端的改革、 调整的诉求上升，建立清晰认识，在发展实践中应对挑战。 优化供给，存量挖潜 供给匹配需求，存量挖掘增量。新一轮"供给侧改革"或将注重开 发利用现有基建和产能，提升生产效率，释放潜在增长空间，这也是"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能"的指向。 积极财政发挥更大效能 总量保持强度，结构注重节流，积极财政政策要发挥更大效能。 明年财政政策强度可能更高，更重要的是结构新变化，更好统筹利用 ...

Core Insights - China's overseas interests are expanding, leading to a growing demand for risk management and financial services, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - Sunshine Insurance is focusing on energy cooperation and has developed a replicable model of "insurance + green infrastructure" to support high-quality development along the Belt and Road [1] Group 1: Customized Insurance Solutions - The Akmolinsk Wind Power Project in Kazakhstan faces extreme winter temperatures and complex construction conditions, posing significant risks to its operation [2] - Sunshine Insurance has provided a comprehensive insurance package worth approximately 1.5 billion RMB, covering various risks to ensure the project's stable operation in harsh environments [2] Group 2: Green Empowerment - The Akmolinsk Wind Power Project is a model of Sino-Kazakh green cooperation, contributing to local energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality goals [3] - The project generates up to 843 million kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually, reducing carbon emissions by 686,600 tons [3] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - Sunshine Insurance has joined the Belt and Road Reinsurance Community to enhance its underwriting capacity and collaborate with domestic and international reinsurers [4] - The company successfully completed the first transaction on the Shanghai International Reinsurance Trading Center's "Reinsurance International Board," providing insurance for a photovoltaic project in Turkey [4] - Sunshine Insurance aims to continue supporting the Belt and Road Initiative and contribute to national strategies and social development through financial services [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Zero Carbon Mission International Climate Summit 2025" aims to gather insights and strategies for addressing climate change, supporting China's carbon neutrality vision and global emission reduction goals [2] Group 1: China's Role in Global Climate Governance - The summit coincides with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement and the fifth anniversary of China's dual carbon goals, serving as an annual review of global climate actions and a testament to China's green initiatives [4] - Chinese engineering companies have been significant participants in global infrastructure connectivity, adhering to the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [4] Group 2: Clean Energy System Development - Chinese enterprises are experiencing strong growth in overseas renewable energy projects, with renewable energy accounting for 52% of new power installations abroad in 2024, a historical high [5] - Notable projects include the Senj Wind Farm in Croatia, the largest single electrochemical energy storage project in Uzbekistan, and a wind farm cluster in Pakistan, all providing substantial green power [5] Group 3: Climate Resilience and Digital Integration - Chinese companies are integrating climate resilience into project designs, exemplified by the Pelješac Bridge in Croatia and the E763 highway project in Serbia, which utilize innovative solutions to withstand extreme weather [5] - The digital integration in infrastructure projects, such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia and the Colombo International Container Terminal in Sri Lanka, enhances the green performance throughout the project lifecycle [5] Group 4: Industry Representation and Future Outlook - The China International Contractors Association has over 1,500 member companies operating in more than 180 countries, with 76 Chinese firms listed in the global top 250, accounting for 25.4% of the international construction market [6] - The association promotes sustainable infrastructure and has established standards in collaboration with international organizations, aiming to facilitate the implementation of green infrastructure projects [6] - Looking ahead, the association plans to guide Chinese enterprises in participating in global climate governance through green innovation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreements signed by Rongli Construction's subsidiary Rongli New Energy with SANY and logistics companies mark a significant step in the commercial implementation of Hong Kong's zero-carbon smart alliance, transitioning the company's new energy business into a revenue-generating phase [1][2]. Group 1 - The signing of four key agreements, including a strategic cooperation framework with the Hong Kong Logistics Association and three procurement intention agreements, signifies a shift from initial planning to actual revenue generation for Rongli Construction [1][2]. - The strategic cooperation framework with the Hong Kong Logistics Association aims to connect resources in the green logistics supply chain, promoting the development of Hong Kong's green transportation industry and paving the way for future large-scale orders [2][3]. - The procurement intention agreements focus on the large-scale application of new energy logistics vehicles and related services, indicating a clear path to profitable scenarios that can be monetized in the short term [3]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the order-based revenue from Rongli New Energy will act as a stabilizer against fluctuations in traditional business cycles, converting integrated technologies and resources into tangible orders and cash flow [3]. - The developments signal a sustainable profit path for Rongli Construction's new energy business under the "carbon neutrality by 2050" and "Northern Metropolis" policy benefits in Hong Kong, with expectations of revenue and profit breakthroughs as orders materialize [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other regulatory bodies, has issued a plan to promote growth in the power equipment industry from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing international market expansion and cooperation in green energy sectors [1] Group 1: International Market Expansion - The plan encourages active exploration of international markets for power equipment [1] - It highlights the importance of participating in the global energy transition towards green and low-carbon solutions [1] Group 2: Cooperation and Collaboration - The initiative aims to strengthen cooperation in green infrastructure and new infrastructure sectors [1] - It emphasizes deepening collaboration with emerging market countries across the entire industry chain in wind power, photovoltaics, and energy storage [1] Group 3: Quality and Branding - The plan calls for enhancing product quality and building a strong brand image for power equipment [1] - It supports foreign contracting projects in the power sector and encourages energy development and equipment manufacturing companies to collaborate with financial institutions for overseas ventures [1] Group 4: Supply Chain Integration - The initiative promotes the integration of component manufacturing companies into overseas supply chains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adoption of electric container trucks is rapidly increasing in domestic ports, driven by their environmental benefits and operational efficiency, with SANY Marine Engineering Co., Ltd. being a key supplier in this transition [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - SANY Marine Engineering has delivered 92 electric container trucks to Zhejiang Port Group, which now accounts for over 50% of their total container truck fleet [1]. - The electric container trucks provided by SANY have advantages over traditional fuel trucks, including a range of over 120 kilometers per charge and a maximum towing capacity of 70 tons [1]. - The operational data indicates that electric container trucks consume 12% less energy compared to other brands, potentially reducing carbon emissions by approximately 3,818 tons annually for each truck [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Multiple domestic ports, including Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen, are increasingly adopting electric container trucks, supported by charging infrastructure and intelligent dispatch systems [2]. - The trend towards electric container trucks is becoming mainstream in large domestic ports, with expectations that by 2025, the electrification rate will exceed 30% in coastal ports and 20% in inland ports [2]. - The electric container truck market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 25% from 2025 to 2030, driven by policy support and global green infrastructure demands [3].

Group 1: BYD's Export Achievement - BYD's Thailand factory has successfully exported over 900 electric vehicles to Europe, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy [1] - The export destinations include the UK, Germany, and Belgium, enhancing investor confidence in BYD's overseas production capacity and supply chain capabilities [1] - This development reflects the increasing recognition of Chinese manufacturing in the electric vehicle sector, injecting international growth momentum into the A-share new energy sector [1] Group 2: BMW's Localized Smart Transformation - BMW Group announced the introduction of the "Night Package" for its X family models at the Chengdu Auto Show, including the BMW X1, X3 long-wheelbase version, and X5 [2] - The upcoming models will feature the BMW Intelligent Personal Assistant with the new DeepSeek function, highlighting the brand's acceleration towards localization and smart technology [2] - This upgrade is expected to enhance the appeal of the X1, X3, and X5 series, strengthening BMW's competitive edge in the high-end SUV market [2] Group 3: Leap Motor and Zhongxin Innovation Partnership - Leap Motor and Zhongxin Innovation have jointly established a new energy company, Zhongling New Energy Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan [3] - The new company will focus on new materials technology research, battery manufacturing, and sales, as well as the sales of new energy vehicle battery swap facilities [3] - This collaboration is anticipated to drive technological innovation and market expansion in the new energy sector, positively influencing investment enthusiasm and confidence in the market [3] Group 4: China's Charging Network and Renewable Energy Development - China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving a ratio of 2 charging piles for every 5 vehicles [4] - The country has also established the largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system globally, with the share of renewable energy generation capacity increasing from 40% to approximately 60% [4] - These advancements are expected to benefit the new energy industry chain, particularly charging facility manufacturing and operation companies, enhancing market confidence in related technologies and services [4]

Group 1 - BYD's Thailand factory has exported over 900 electric vehicles to Europe, marking a significant breakthrough in its global strategy [1] - This development enhances investor confidence in BYD's overseas production capacity and supply chain capabilities, solidifying its international image in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - The export reflects the increasing recognition of Chinese manufacturing technology in the electric vehicle field, injecting international development momentum into the A-share new energy sector [1] Group 2 - BMW Group announced the introduction of the "Night Package" for its X family models at the Chengdu Auto Show, including the BMW X1, X3 long-wheelbase version, and X5 [2] - The integration of the DeepSeek AI feature into the BMW intelligent personal assistant is expected to enhance the appeal of the X1, X3, and X5 series, strengthening the brand's competitive edge in the high-end SUV market [2] - This move highlights the acceleration of traditional luxury brands towards localization and digital transformation in response to the growing digital demands of the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - Leap Motor and Zhongchuang Innovation have jointly established a new energy company with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, focusing on new materials, battery manufacturing, and electric vehicle charging facilities [3] - The partnership reflects a deep collaboration in the new energy sector, emphasizing the importance of electric infrastructure [3] - This initiative is expected to drive technological innovation and market expansion, positively influencing investment enthusiasm and confidence in the new energy industry [3] Group 4 - China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a ratio of two charging piles for every five vehicles [4] - The country has also established the largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system globally, with the share of renewable energy generation capacity increasing from 40% to approximately 60% [4] - These advancements are beneficial for the new energy industry chain, particularly for charging facility manufacturing and operation companies, enhancing market confidence in related technologies and services [4]