Group 1 - The A500 Index ETF has shown significant liquidity with an intraday turnover of 3.53% and a transaction volume of 5.22 billion yuan, ranking among the top two comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 27.77 billion yuan [3] - The A500 Index ETF has experienced a notable growth in scale, increasing by 3.57 billion yuan over the past two weeks, leading among comparable funds [3] - The A500 Index ETF has added 531 million shares in the last two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds in terms of new shares issued [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the A500 Index ETF is 28.89 million yuan, with a total of 196 million yuan net inflow over the last four trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index, is currently valued at a historical low with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.46, which is below 81.78% of the time over the past year, highlighting its attractive valuation [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index account for 21.21% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and CATL [3] Group 2 - Securities firms are optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of the year, anticipating a continued valuation recovery of Chinese assets, with a focus on technology [4] - Xiangcai Securities has released a mid-term strategy report suggesting that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner throughout 2025 under supportive policies [4] - CITIC Securities emphasizes three long-term trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and resource reserves, and the acceleration of social security improvements in China to stimulate domestic demand [4] - Investors without stock accounts can consider low-cost entry into A-share core assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) [4]

每日观点 今日或受关税预期变化影响，市场风险偏好受到提振，沪深三大指数反弹，两市成交放量至1.21万亿。 昨夜公布的美联储5月议息会议纪要显示，美国经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，联储决策者几乎全都 表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧，对于降息将采取谨慎态度，他们将等待有关财政和贸易政策的更多 明确信息，当前CME基于期货合约价格对于美联储利率的预测，9月降息概率不足5成。国内方面，经 济保持平稳修复态势，今年前四个月主要经济指标的同比增速超过去年四季度水平。当前中美贸易局势 阶段性缓和，在90天关税暂缓期内"抢出口"将继续，生产端偏强或将支撑起企业营收上升的空间。对于 A股而言，短期或将呈现区间震荡走势，中长期维度关注我国自主科技能力的提升，以及加速完善社会 保障并激发内需潜力的政策趋势。 消息面 当地时间5月28日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁 定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。在联邦法院阻止加征关税之后，特朗普政 府提起上诉通知。 简评：联邦法院的裁决可能促使中美贸易关系出现新的变化。此前因"抢出口"透支需求的产业链企业或 迎来订单修复窗口， ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities focuses on the theme "Forge Ahead in a New Era," discussing the mid-term outlook for the US-China economy, global macroeconomic and strategic landscape, as well as the A-share and Hong Kong-US stock markets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities' General Manager, Zou Yingguang, emphasizes that China is responding to external uncertainties with high-quality development, showcasing new policy approaches and a significant improvement in the capital market ecosystem [1] - Chief Economist Mingming notes that the global economy is undergoing deep restructuring, with China's economy showing signs of recovery amidst challenges, including resilient retail consumption and infrastructure investment [2] - The forecast for China's GDP growth in 2025 is around 5.0%, supported by potential fiscal policy enhancements in consumption, social security, and technological innovation [2] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to maintain a favorable valuation compared to other asset classes, with a predicted downward trend in government bond yields [2] - Chief A-share Strategist Qiu Xiang anticipates a significant upward trend in Chinese equity assets starting in Q4 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [3] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on long-term trends such as enhancing China's technological capabilities, European defense autonomy, and improving social security to stimulate domestic demand [3][4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The ongoing trade conflicts are likely to reshape the global industrial landscape, with a trend towards "rebalancing" of global assets [3] - The forum features discussions on various economic hotspots, including macro strategies, US-China relations, trade war implications, energy transitions, and innovations in healthcare and consumption [5]

1.中信证券：聚焦三大不变趋势 中信证券裘翔称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势；三是中国势必要走通"双循环"，加 速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 【 机构观点综评 】中信证券称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势。中金固收团队 称，建议把握二三季度配置窗口，布局债市牛市行情。 一、焦点锐评 1. 降准、降息加增量政策，三部门发力稳预期！ 5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准 0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分 点，设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括加快出台适配 房地产发展新模式的融资制度、再批复600亿元保险资金长期投资试点等。证监会将全力支持中央汇金 发挥好类"平准基金"作用，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施等。 【点评】当前宏观经济面临国内政策变动和经济波动超预期的风险，尤其在中美经贸关系尚未明朗、关 税影响逐步 ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% and the ChiNext Index down 0.12%, with sectors like PEEK materials, grain concepts, and automotive dismantling leading the declines [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that A-shares will continue to show a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation in May, driven by low institutional holdings in thematic trading opportunities [1] - The report highlights three enduring trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, Europe's reconstruction of autonomous defense and energy infrastructure, and China's push for a "dual circulation" strategy to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2 - CITIC Jiantou notes that the recent financial policy package is expected to improve economic expectations, with macroeconomic indicators gradually recovering [2] - The banking sector is currently characterized by strong policy expectations but weak fundamentals, with hopes for substantial improvement in the banking sector's fundamentals following the financial policy's impact [2] - The report emphasizes a focus on dividend yield strategies represented by state-owned banks, driven by a demand for safety and high confidence in investment [2]

中信策略5月观点可以参考下，预计市场风险偏好会有所回升，不过鉴于经济层面的不确定性已经显现（中国4月 PMI数据转弱，美国超额消费将在1~2个月内消耗完），以及贸易战仍处僵持阶段，中期维度仍要聚焦三大高确定 性趋势。 其中把中国自主科技能力的提升趋势放在了第一位。 展望5月，"为签而签"可能成为海外叙事逻辑，我们预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题 轮动的特征，以低机构持仓的主题型交易机会为主； 但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，我们预计中美经济在二季度尾声可能会面临新的变数。 策略聚焦｜交易事实，而非预期 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，我们依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升趋势不 会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走通"双循环"， 加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 其中把中国自主科技能力的提升趋势放在了第一位。 策略聚焦｜交易事实，而非预期 关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都回到原点，表明"交易事实，而非预期"应该是贸易战之下应对不确定 性的第一原则； 关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都 ...

Group 1 - The outlook for May suggests that "signing for the sake of signing" may become a narrative in overseas markets, with expectations of further recovery in risk appetite and a focus on theme-based trading opportunities in A-shares due to low institutional holdings [1] - Economic impacts are already occurring, with three major trends expected to remain unchanged: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and the improvement of energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves, and the necessity for China to promote "dual circulation" to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Global market risk aversion has decreased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, supported by liquidity and a slowdown in trade tensions, with domestic consumption improving due to the May Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The first quarter reports indicate that small-cap growth and technology sectors are likely to outperform in May, with significant improvements in small-cap performance compared to 2024 [2] - The TMT sector shows notable earnings improvements, particularly in sub-sectors like computers, media, and semiconductors [2] - Potential catalysts for technology in May include the anticipated release of new models such as DeepSeek's R2, suggesting a structurally driven market [2]

中信证券：A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动特征 展望5月，中信证券预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓 的主题型交易机会为主。但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，中信证券预计中美经济在二季度尾声 可能会面临新的变数。 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，中信证券依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势不会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走 通"双循环"，加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 广发证券：景气投资回归 短期A股考虑三重因素：一是一些负面的一季报靴子落地；二是TMT反应度模型已经处于下限位置；三是国内 外大厂在大模型、算力芯片、端侧、AI应用的进展不断，5月—6月继续看好科技股的机会。 中期角度来说，回到三类资产对应的三个模型，在出现地产周期大反弹或科技应用大爆发之前，中长期对中性 股息组合保持关注。另外，考虑到国内科技大厂资本开支正在加大、产业链订单开始释放，景气成长组合以及 所代表的景气投资风格，当前大概率仍会占优；但由于报表业绩体现方面存在不确定性，各类上市公司的表观 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and trading opportunities [2] - The overall market is currently in a narrow fluctuation range, and investors are advised to adopt a low-buy high-sell strategy within this range [3] - Domestic policies are entering an observation period, with a focus on internal demand and technology sectors as key investment themes [4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost "Chinese assets," with AI+ becoming a significant investment theme in May [5] - Consumption and technology are both seen as growth directions, with a preference for technology investments due to their relative low position [6] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on bonds and dividend assets, as well as potential opportunities in safe-haven assets like gold and military [7] Group 3 - The consumption data during the May Day holiday showed significant recovery, driven by extended holiday time and favorable policies [10] - The market outlook for May suggests a continuation of the fluctuation pattern, with an emphasis on independent industry trends and policy expectations [10]