从资金市场表现看，年末短端流动性并未出现明显紧张迹象。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，近期短 端资金利率整体偏低，隔夜利率一度回落至1.3%以下，显示市场流动性超季节性宽松。"央行保持流动 性充裕的取向并未发生变化。"明明认为，随着跨年时点临近，央行仍可能通过公开市场操作、国债买 入等方式，对冲阶段性扰动，平抑资金面波动。（上证报） ...

早在2018年1月24日，设研院股价最高冲击至19.45元/股（前复权）；截至目前，公司股价仅剩不到8元/股，较2018年1月24 日的最高价回调超过60%。 尽管今日（12月24日），设研院(300732)股价反弹1.34%，但自今年8月11日至今，公司股价累计跌幅依然超过35%，这一跌 幅不仅位居申万二级工程咨询服务的首位，也位居整个A股市场跌幅的前25名。 对于股价的下跌，有投资者在互动平台表达不满。12月18日，有投资者提问"贵公司自今年8月8日后连续单边下跌截止到日 前已达-42.5%之多，且毫无反弹，对二级市场的投资者造成极大的伤害。" 公司回复称："近期股价下跌主要受多重因素综合影响：一是工程咨询行业整体受宏观经济周期、基建投资节奏调整影响， 市场预期较为谨慎；二是二级市场资金面、情绪面波动传导至个股；三是公司部分项目回款周期较预期有延长，短期影响 市场信心。但公司基本面未发生重大变化，核心技术优势、客户资源及市场竞争力保持稳定。" ...

新华财经北京12月23日电（王菁）债市周二（12月23日）小幅回暖，中短端表现更优，国债期货主力全 线收涨，银行间现券收益率回落1-2BPs；公开市场单日净回笼760亿元，短期资金利率多数转为下行。 机构认为，随着短端收益率下行，期限利差上涨，长端和超长端的性价比逐渐显现。后续的债市修复过 程中，短债和长债都有相应的机会。短期内跟随市场情绪切换进行高频波段的胜率仍有保障，但趋势行 情开启的难度较大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.89%报112.83，10年期主力合约涨0.26%报108.22，5年期 主力合约涨0.17%报106.025，2年期主力合约涨0.07%报102.526元。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行1.3BP报2.2245%，10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行1.15BP报1.895%，7年期国债"25附息国债18"收益率下行2.2BPs报 1.7%。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12月23日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了593亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量593亿元，中标量593亿元。数据 ...

该行指出，近期四大国有行陆续完成中期分红除净，历史来看除净日后通常股价可能调整，2025年初中 期分红时也出现过类似短期波动，今年四大国有行中期分红除净日提前至12月。预计后续交通银行、邮 储银行、招商银行、兴业银行等大型银行也将在年底、年初、春节前陆续实施中期分红除净，从长期角 度，如果除净等交易因素造成股价调整，通常是长线资金较好的配置时点。 智通财经APP获悉，部分内银股午后走低，截至发稿，交通银行(03328)跌3.93%，报6.84港元；农业银 行(01288)跌2.52%，报5.41港元；建设银行(00939)跌0.79%，报7.58港元；工商银行(01398)跌0.33%，报 6.12港元。 长江证券发布研报称，银行股四季度初上涨与近期调整，主要反映年末交易性资金的配置行为波动。该 行预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为TPL账户，预计保险等 机构年底也存在兑现收益的需要。我们认为跨年节点过后，配置力量将重新推升银行股估值及银行指数 基金规模。 ...

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为1870亿、1847亿和1149亿，净融资额为1016 亿、1267亿和1149亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2068亿，净融资额280亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模3846亿，净融资额1291亿。可转债新券发行1只，预计融资规模5.6亿元。 二级市场回顾 股市连续大跌，但债市窄幅震荡。主要影响因素包括：资金面波动、赎回费新规尚未落地、房贷贴息政 策传闻等。 流动性跟踪 受税期等因素扰动，资金利率先上后下。最终R001和R007分别较前周下行4.2BP和上行0.1BP。 政策与基本面 10月财政收支分化明显，税收收入高增，一般财政支出明显回落。高频数据来看：生产端需求端双双走 弱，食品、生产资料价格下跌。 海外市场 9月非农数据表现分化，英伟达财报超预期，但美股大跌下海外避险情绪上升。10年期美债收盘在 4.06%，较前周下行8BP。 权益市场 上周A股大幅走弱，市场对利空因素颇为敏感，万得全A周内下跌5.13%，成长方向成为下跌重灾区。 成交缩量，上周日均成交量1.87万亿，周度日均成交量减少1787.91亿，周五单天成交 ...

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net injection this week was CNY 13,652 billion, with CNY 2,200 billion in treasury cash deposits maturing[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by CNY 1 trillion to CNY 7.1 trillion, with overall pledged repo volume lower than last week[3] - The new caliber funding gap rose to -640 on Tuesday but fell to -4,625 by Friday, remaining above last week's -5,511[3] Market Reactions and Trends - A-share market strength and the freezing of funds for new listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange have been suggested as factors influencing market adjustments[3] - The average DR001 rate for August was 1.32%, indicating that the central bank may tolerate increased funding volatility in the latter half of the month[3] - Government bond net payments this week totaled CNY 2,948 billion, with next week's treasury payment scale expected to be CNY 2,370 billion[3] Future Projections - The forecast for September includes CNY 12,900 billion in treasury issuance and a net financing of CNY 5,300 billion[4] - The overall government bond issuance scale for August was CNY 2.33 trillion, with a net financing scale of CNY 1.33 trillion, slightly lower than previous expectations[4] - Next week, the government bond net payment scale is projected to decrease to CNY 2,114 billion[4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased liquidity support through significant reverse repo operations to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system [1][2] - On October 23, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 808 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 702 billion yuan [1] - The PBOC's actions are in response to a tightening of the funding environment due to factors such as tax payment deadlines and government bond issuance [2] Group 2 - Analysts note that the recent tightening of the funding environment is influenced by the issuance of local special refinancing bonds, with a total net financing of 943.8 billion yuan reported by October 20 [2] - The expected net financing scale of government bonds in October is projected to reach 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 295.1 billion yuan compared to September [2] - The impact of tax payment deadlines on the funding environment is expected to ease after October 23, as historical trends indicate that funding rates typically peak before tax deadlines [2] Group 3 - The market outlook suggests that funding pressures may persist, but the PBOC is likely to continue increasing reverse repo operations to stabilize the funding environment [2][3] - With the peak supply period for government bonds passing, a significant decrease in net issuance is anticipated for November and December [3] - Overall, both fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain supportive, with the PBOC utilizing various tools to ensure adequate liquidity for economic recovery [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, influenced by multiple factors such as the increasing expectation of fiscal expansion, the continuous seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and fluctuations in the capital market. Although the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, long - term fundamental support remains, and there may be opportunities for a rebound after the market correction [1][2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: On May 20, the central bank cut the LPR, and major state - owned and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates. In July, the LPR remained stable. Sino - US economic and trade talks are scheduled from July 27 - 30. In the first half of 2025, the national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure and optimized revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight 0.3% year - on - year decrease, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. Government - funded budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year. The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding Conditions**: On July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates (1D, 7D, 14D) were 1.52%, 1.65%, and 1.67% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently risen [2]. - **Market Conditions**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.31 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 108.18 yuan, and 117.95 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were - 0.11%, - 0.36%, - 0.53%, and - 1.68% respectively. The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.11 yuan, 0.10 yuan, and 0.80 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: With the rising repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread. - **Hedging**: As there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3].