Core Insights - Germany's finance minister confirmed a fiscal gap exceeding €140 billion by 2029, despite an upward revision of tax revenue expectations by €33.6 billion, indicating that structural deficits remain challenging to address [1] - The German economy has contracted for two consecutive years, prompting the government to rely on spending to stimulate recovery, yet the fiscal gap for 2028-2029 is still projected to exceed €60 billion, leading to potential cuts across various departments [1]

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on the 8th, reaching a historic high of $4,039.14 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over the outlook for the US dollar and other currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly buying gold and other alternative assets, leading to a rise in "currency devaluation trades" on Wall Street [1] - Gold has replaced the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset this year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current surge in gold prices is distinct from previous trends, as it is not triggered by a financial collapse [1] - Investors are speculating on continued increases in gold prices while seeking to hedge against potential consequences of US policy failures, including rising budget deficits and government shutdowns [1] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Joe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, noted a tug-of-war in the market, with the S&P 500 reflecting an AI boom while the gold camp is concerned about structural deficits and fiscal pressures in the US [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that even with gold prices exceeding $4,000, investors should allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold for risk diversification, drawing parallels to the early 1970s when inflation was high and confidence in dollar assets collapsed [1]