12月上旬，马克龙对中国进行访问，中国给予高规格接待，但马克龙回国后不久即对中国口出狂言，声称如果中国不解决中欧之间的贸易失衡问题，欧盟将 会采取更多的贸易保护主义措施，效仿美国对中国加征关税，完全将中国对他的礼遇和善意抛到了脑后。实际上，这已经不是马克龙第一次伤害中国了，欧 盟对中国电动汽车加征关税，就是马克龙带头支持的。马克龙过去几年曾经两次访华，中国都相当重视，但从实际效果来看，马克龙似乎并不领情，看来中 国需要说一些马克龙听得懂的话。 根据环球网12月23日消息，中国决定自当天起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时的反补贴措施，从价补贴率范围为21.9%至42.7%。路透社等媒体 认为，这是中国对欧盟对华征收电动汽车关税的回应。中方此举，最难受的大概就是法国总统马克龙了。根据业内人士的分析，中国商务部此次公布的15家 抽样公司中，有12家都是法国公司，其中比较有代表性的企业菲仕兰比利时有限公司和菲仕兰荷兰有限公司均被征收最高的42.7%。 中国新能源汽车性能强悍、技术先进，即便承受着高额关税，在欧盟市场上依然非常受消费者欢迎，足以证明其不可替代性。而乳制品、猪肉制品，中国可 选择的就太多了，仅仅是新 ...

Core Insights - The company is the largest independent digital payment solution provider in China, holding 65 global licenses and covering key markets including mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, the US, the UK, Thailand, Luxembourg, and Indonesia, with plans to expand into emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America [1][2] - The digital payment market is rapidly growing due to globalization and the expansion of cross-border e-commerce, with China's cross-border e-commerce import and export compound growth rate reaching 13.7% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The company's revenue primarily comes from cross-border payment services, which account for approximately 60% of total revenue, helping merchants navigate high costs and compliance risks associated with cross-border transactions [3] Company Performance - The company's cross-border payment fee rates have remained stable between 2.8‰ and 3.8‰ from 2020 to 2024, while domestic payment rates are around 0.1-0.2‰, influenced by intense competition [3] - The company has seen significant growth in its value-added services, particularly in digital marketing, which generated revenues of 3.76 million, 53.58 million, and 79.08 million yuan from 2021 to the first three quarters of 2023, respectively [3] - The sale of shares in a subsidiary contributed approximately 2 billion yuan to the company's performance in the first half of 2025, with expectations of reduced impairment losses in the future [3] Regulatory Developments - The company obtained a VATP (Virtual Asset Trading Platform) license in Hong Kong by the end of 2024, which is expected to enhance its business capabilities and service offerings [4] - The VATP license is rare, and the company is one of the few licensed institutions with trade payment scenarios, potentially allowing for improved efficiency in cross-border payment settlements [4] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 1.7 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.3%, 29.6%, and 22.7% respectively [4] - The company is expected to leverage its WEB3 ecosystem applications to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and create synergies with its core business [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the complexities of the US-China tariff situation, highlighting the misleading narratives surrounding the percentage of tariffs imposed by each country [1][3] - Prior to Trump's presidency, the average tariffs were 3.1% for the US on Chinese goods and 8% for China on US goods, reflecting a common trend where developing countries have higher tariffs than developed ones [3] - By the beginning of Biden's administration in 2021, the US had an average tariff rate of 19.3% on Chinese goods, while China imposed approximately 20.7% on US products [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's second term saw an increase of 20% tariffs related to the fentanyl issue, with a total of 30% tariffs imposed, although only 10% were actually collected [4][6] - The weighted average tariff for US goods exported to China is estimated to be between 45% and 50%, indicating significant costs for importers and consumers in both countries [5][6] - The article emphasizes that high tariffs lead to a trade war that ultimately harms both nations, reinforcing the idea that there are no winners in such conflicts [8][9] Group 3 - The strategic implications of the tariff war are significant, as it serves as a geopolitical weapon rather than just a trade policy tool, indicating a shift in how tariffs are perceived and utilized [10] - The ongoing nature of the tariff battle suggests that companies must prepare for a long-term high-tariff environment, as the situation remains unpredictable [9][10] - The article concludes that unilateral protectionism cannot halt the natural progression of industrial development and globalization, with China focusing on building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10]

Group 1 - The trade tariffs initially aimed at China have backfired, negatively impacting American farmers and companies like Tesla [1][3] - The chaotic tariff situation is severely harming the interests of American agricultural producers, particularly small farmers who have low risk tolerance [3][4] - U.S. poultry farmers are struggling as China, once their largest market, has reduced imports significantly [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean industry is facing devastating impacts due to tariffs, with over half of U.S. soybean production reliant on exports, primarily to China [12][14] - Brazilian farmers are benefiting from the situation as China shifts its soybean imports from the U.S. to Brazil, highlighting the competitive nature of agricultural exports [16][18] - The cost of beer cans has risen due to tariffs, leading to the closure of many small breweries, as they cannot absorb the increased costs like larger companies can [21][24] Group 3 - Despite recent talks leading to reduced tariffs, the impact on U.S. agriculture remains significant, with a 10% tariff still in place for low-value primary agricultural products [26] - Chinese manufacturers are adapting by shifting focus to domestic markets, with some companies experiencing increased sales despite the trade tensions [27][31] - The resilience of the Chinese market is evident as it continues to grow, even amidst tariffs, with exports to other countries compensating for losses in the U.S. market [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration poses significant risks to global trade and supply chains, particularly affecting Jiangsu's economy, which will face both short-term pressures and long-term structural adjustments [1] Short-term Impacts - Jiangsu's exports to the U.S. are expected to decline due to increased tariffs, leading companies to shift orders to emerging markets like Europe and South America [2] - The impact of tariffs on export companies varies based on price elasticity; companies with inelastic demand may pass costs to U.S. consumers, while those with elastic demand may exit the market or absorb costs [2] - The strict origin inspection policies in the U.S. complicate re-export trade through countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, limiting options for Jiangsu companies [2] - Tariffs will increase the cost of imported raw materials and components, reducing market competitiveness and demand for Jiangsu enterprises [2][3] - Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate due to tariffs will significantly affect small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in exports, leading to profit reductions and increased operational risks [3] - The inconsistency of U.S. tariff policies creates uncertainty, hindering investment decisions and operational activities of companies [3] Long-term Impacts - The "reciprocal tariff" policy may drive Jiangsu's economic transformation by pushing companies to enhance product value to offset rising tariffs [4] - Jiangsu enterprises are encouraged to diversify markets and explore non-U.S. markets, with exports to Belt and Road countries projected to grow significantly [5] - Government policy adjustments, including tariff reductions in key sectors, will support enterprise transformation and attract foreign investment [5] - Companies are increasingly localizing supply chains and establishing production bases in non-U.S. countries to mitigate tariff impacts [5] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is accelerating, with initiatives to promote "export to domestic sales" models [6] Recommendations for Jiangsu - The government should innovate policies to support exports and establish a responsive mechanism for tariff impacts [7] - Companies should focus on enhancing competitiveness through technological advancements and transitioning to high-end production [8] - Jiangsu should continue to develop diverse market strategies to mitigate external risks, particularly in Belt and Road countries [9] - Financial innovations should be implemented to help enterprises manage operational risks, including currency hedging and supply chain financing [10] - Regional collaboration should be enhanced to improve overall resilience against risks, focusing on key industries like semiconductor and biomedicine [11] - A dynamic risk prevention system should be established to monitor tariff changes and support enterprises in adapting to new trade environments [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, indicating a strategy of unilateral bullying under the guise of "reciprocity" [1][3] - China has issued a rare public warning against sacrificing its interests for U.S. tariff exemptions, emphasizing its determination to take reciprocal measures if necessary [1][5] - The ongoing trade war has led China to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, while actively seeking alternative supply chains to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [5][8] Group 2 - The strategy of uniting other countries against China is viewed as misguided, as previous attempts to isolate China have not succeeded, and the current geopolitical landscape may not support such a coalition [3][5] - The potential collapse of global trade due to escalating tariffs could have devastating effects on weaker economies, with the U.S. being held responsible for any resulting chaos [5][8] - There is a call for international solidarity to resist U.S. hegemonic behavior, with warnings that countries cooperating with the U.S. may face severe consequences in the future [8]

本文约 3 5 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 5 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 4月2日，美国对全球贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，国际资本市场经历了最动 荡的一周。尽管在现在和可预见的未来，关税还将出现暂缓、豁免和反 复，但潘多拉的盒子一旦打开，再想关上就是另外一回事了。美元的信用 体系严重崩塌，中方与欧盟、东盟交往密切，欧元和日元走高，国际新秩 序正在悄然形成…… 此前，我国国务院总理李强已于4月8日同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话，随即，我国 商务部部长王文涛同欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。新闻通 稿中提到： " 双方同意尽快启动磋商，深入讨论市场准入相关问题，为企业创造更有利 的营商环境，并立即开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判，以及讨论中欧汽车产业投资合作问 题 " 。 此次欧盟发言人的表态进一步确认了"最低进口价格"这一机制方案，也就是说，双方将 设定一个价格阈值，若中国车企以高于该阈值的价格销售电动汽车，则可以享受与本土 企业同等的税收待遇。 根据最新消息，中欧双方团队已经开始接触。 1 肉眼可见的下滑 欧盟对中国电动车的关税政策始于2 0 2 3年9月冯德莱恩突然发动的反补贴调查。 经过一 ...