Group 1 - The trade tariffs initially aimed at China have backfired, negatively impacting American farmers and companies like Tesla [1][3] - The chaotic tariff situation is severely harming the interests of American agricultural producers, particularly small farmers who have low risk tolerance [3][4] - U.S. poultry farmers are struggling as China, once their largest market, has reduced imports significantly [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean industry is facing devastating impacts due to tariffs, with over half of U.S. soybean production reliant on exports, primarily to China [12][14] - Brazilian farmers are benefiting from the situation as China shifts its soybean imports from the U.S. to Brazil, highlighting the competitive nature of agricultural exports [16][18] - The cost of beer cans has risen due to tariffs, leading to the closure of many small breweries, as they cannot absorb the increased costs like larger companies can [21][24] Group 3 - Despite recent talks leading to reduced tariffs, the impact on U.S. agriculture remains significant, with a 10% tariff still in place for low-value primary agricultural products [26] - Chinese manufacturers are adapting by shifting focus to domestic markets, with some companies experiencing increased sales despite the trade tensions [27][31] - The resilience of the Chinese market is evident as it continues to grow, even amidst tariffs, with exports to other countries compensating for losses in the U.S. market [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration poses significant risks to global trade and supply chains, particularly affecting Jiangsu's economy, which will face both short-term pressures and long-term structural adjustments [1] Short-term Impacts - Jiangsu's exports to the U.S. are expected to decline due to increased tariffs, leading companies to shift orders to emerging markets like Europe and South America [2] - The impact of tariffs on export companies varies based on price elasticity; companies with inelastic demand may pass costs to U.S. consumers, while those with elastic demand may exit the market or absorb costs [2] - The strict origin inspection policies in the U.S. complicate re-export trade through countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, limiting options for Jiangsu companies [2] - Tariffs will increase the cost of imported raw materials and components, reducing market competitiveness and demand for Jiangsu enterprises [2][3] - Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate due to tariffs will significantly affect small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in exports, leading to profit reductions and increased operational risks [3] - The inconsistency of U.S. tariff policies creates uncertainty, hindering investment decisions and operational activities of companies [3] Long-term Impacts - The "reciprocal tariff" policy may drive Jiangsu's economic transformation by pushing companies to enhance product value to offset rising tariffs [4] - Jiangsu enterprises are encouraged to diversify markets and explore non-U.S. markets, with exports to Belt and Road countries projected to grow significantly [5] - Government policy adjustments, including tariff reductions in key sectors, will support enterprise transformation and attract foreign investment [5] - Companies are increasingly localizing supply chains and establishing production bases in non-U.S. countries to mitigate tariff impacts [5] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is accelerating, with initiatives to promote "export to domestic sales" models [6] Recommendations for Jiangsu - The government should innovate policies to support exports and establish a responsive mechanism for tariff impacts [7] - Companies should focus on enhancing competitiveness through technological advancements and transitioning to high-end production [8] - Jiangsu should continue to develop diverse market strategies to mitigate external risks, particularly in Belt and Road countries [9] - Financial innovations should be implemented to help enterprises manage operational risks, including currency hedging and supply chain financing [10] - Regional collaboration should be enhanced to improve overall resilience against risks, focusing on key industries like semiconductor and biomedicine [11] - A dynamic risk prevention system should be established to monitor tariff changes and support enterprises in adapting to new trade environments [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, indicating a strategy of unilateral bullying under the guise of "reciprocity" [1][3] - China has issued a rare public warning against sacrificing its interests for U.S. tariff exemptions, emphasizing its determination to take reciprocal measures if necessary [1][5] - The ongoing trade war has led China to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, while actively seeking alternative supply chains to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [5][8] Group 2 - The strategy of uniting other countries against China is viewed as misguided, as previous attempts to isolate China have not succeeded, and the current geopolitical landscape may not support such a coalition [3][5] - The potential collapse of global trade due to escalating tariffs could have devastating effects on weaker economies, with the U.S. being held responsible for any resulting chaos [5][8] - There is a call for international solidarity to resist U.S. hegemonic behavior, with warnings that countries cooperating with the U.S. may face severe consequences in the future [8]

本文约 3 5 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 5 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 4月2日，美国对全球贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，国际资本市场经历了最动 荡的一周。尽管在现在和可预见的未来，关税还将出现暂缓、豁免和反 复，但潘多拉的盒子一旦打开，再想关上就是另外一回事了。美元的信用 体系严重崩塌，中方与欧盟、东盟交往密切，欧元和日元走高，国际新秩 序正在悄然形成…… 此前，我国国务院总理李强已于4月8日同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话，随即，我国 商务部部长王文涛同欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。新闻通 稿中提到： " 双方同意尽快启动磋商，深入讨论市场准入相关问题，为企业创造更有利 的营商环境，并立即开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判，以及讨论中欧汽车产业投资合作问 题 " 。 此次欧盟发言人的表态进一步确认了"最低进口价格"这一机制方案，也就是说，双方将 设定一个价格阈值，若中国车企以高于该阈值的价格销售电动汽车，则可以享受与本土 企业同等的税收待遇。 根据最新消息，中欧双方团队已经开始接触。 1 肉眼可见的下滑 欧盟对中国电动车的关税政策始于2 0 2 3年9月冯德莱恩突然发动的反补贴调查。 经过一 ...