（来源：千龙网） 2026年货币政策将会如何发力，资金将重点流向哪些领域，这些政策都将如何影响你的钱袋子，财经老 王专访中国人民银行行长潘功胜。 对于今年适度宽松的货币政策，央行会有什么安排？ 潘功胜：总量政策方面，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策 工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 今年降准降息还有一定的空间。 结构性政策方面，坚持聚焦重点、合理适度、有进有退，不断优化结构性货币政策工具的设计和管理， 引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。 在支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小企业方面，央行今年有何考虑？ 潘功胜：在扩大内需、支持消费方面，专设5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，激励引导金融机构创新金 融产品，满足消费领域多样化金融需求。 在支持科技创新方面，持续加大政策支持力度。科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度的基础上再增加至1.2 万亿元，并将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域，推动发展债券市场"科技板"。 潘功胜：从目前实施的效果看，一大批的人得到了个人信用修复，违约记录就不再展示了。它是一个 ...

Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions this year to maintain stable financial market operations [1][5] - The PBOC announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [2][5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of Japan requiring additional documentation for rare earth imports, emphasizing China's commitment to international non-proliferation obligations [5] Company News - Beijing Chuanxue Company has booked over 20 space tourists and aims to achieve its first manned flight by 2028 [3][7] - Yushun released a clarification on its sales data, stating that the actual shipment of humanoid robots for the entire year of 2025 will exceed 5,500 units [3][10] - Xiaomi Group announced a share repurchase plan of up to 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, intending to cancel the repurchased shares [11] - Intel reported an adjusted earnings per share of $0.15 for Q4, slightly above the previous year's $0.13, but saw a post-market drop of over 10% [12][15] Global Market - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55%, while technology stocks saw broad gains [12] - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, with gold exceeding $4,941 per ounce and silver surpassing $96.6 per ounce amid a weaker dollar [13]

中国人民 银行行长潘功胜接受采访表示，将继续维护好金融市场的平稳运行。做好预期管理，保持人 民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票据市场、 黄金市场 监督管理。建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本市场的两项货币 政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。（新华社） ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济 稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增 长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金 融支撑。 总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。人民 银行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 结构性政策方面，中国人民银 行已在今年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 在利率 上，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。在类型上，单设1万亿元民营企业再贷款，合并 设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。在额度上，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元至4.35万亿 元，增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度4000亿元至1.2万亿元。在支持范围上，拓展碳减排支持工 具、服务消费与养老再贷款这两项工具的支持领域。这些政策已落地实施。 我们还要继续维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas to maintain financial stability and promote high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Financial Risk Management - The meeting highlights the need to balance economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial risk prevention at the macro level [1] - There is a commitment to maintaining stable financial market operations and ensuring the sound management of micro financial institutions [1] Group 2: Support for Financial Institutions - The establishment of mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios is emphasized [1] - The bank is determined to advance the resolution of debt risks associated with financing platforms [1] Group 3: Market Principles and Real Estate Management - The principles of marketization and rule of law will guide the proactive and prudent handling of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] - The importance of macro-prudential management in the real estate finance sector is underscored [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas to maintain financial stability and support high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Financial Risk Management - The meeting highlights the need to balance economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial risk prevention at the macro level [1] - Strengthening the monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems for financial risks is a priority [1] - A mechanism for providing liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios will be established to mitigate moral hazards in the financial market [1] Group 2: Support for Financial Institutions - The bank is committed to advancing the resolution of debt risks associated with financing platforms [1] - The principles of marketization and rule of law will guide the proactive and prudent handling of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] - Macro-prudential management of real estate finance will be emphasized to ensure stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on both domestic and international factors while ensuring liquidity remains ample [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the economic landscape to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the PBOC aims to enhance financial support for the real economy while also prioritizing the prevention of financial risks and maintaining financial stability [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The PBOC has achieved a significant reduction in local government financing platform risks, with the number of financing platforms decreasing by over 60% and financial debt scale declining by over 50% compared to the beginning of 2023 [2] - The PBOC is committed to maintaining stable financial market operations and has supported the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in playing a role similar to a "stabilization fund" [2] - Legislative efforts are ongoing to enhance the financial stability framework, including the advancement of laws related to financial stability and the PBOC, as well as the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's overall assessment indicates that financial risks are manageable, and the financial system is operating robustly, providing strong support for high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Discussions regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be communicated after central government directives [3]