2025 年 6 月 11 日 星期三 每日大市点评 6 月 10 日，港股大盘走势反复，恒生指数盘中一度再上试高位，但买盘动力不足，最终微跌 19 点或 0.1%，收报 24,162 点。恒生科指下跌 0.8%，收报 5,392 点。大市成交金额 2,503 亿港元，其中盈富基金及恒生中国企业两只指数 ETF 成交 金额分别达到 165 亿及 140 亿港元，近期罕有登上成交活跃榜首两位。港股通净流入 75.9 亿港元。盘面上，内银、保 险、电力、生物医药、材料、交运等细分板块表现较理想。农行、建行及工行再创上市新高。生物医药继续憧憬 BD 交 易，乐普生物(2157 HK)、康方生物(9926 HK)、三生制药(1530 HK)分别升 9.8%至 15.5%不等。 当前 AH 溢价指数已回落至 130.5，处于三年内 8.8%分位数的低位水平。对于港股通内地个人投资者，H 股投资需缴纳 20% 股息税，考虑该税收后 AH 溢价指数约为 125，可见 H 股进一步上行空间不大。港股整体估值当前未达显著低估区间，恒 生指数风险溢价逼近滚动两年均值负两个标准差，反映市场风险补偿不足。然而，在情绪回暖及成交量回升 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Innovative Pharmaceuticals Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the innovative pharmaceuticals industry, particularly in the context of clinical data, pricing policies, and market dynamics in China and the U.S. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Clinical Data Certainty**: There is an increase in certainty regarding clinical data for new products in oncology, but poor results from key clinical trials could negatively impact the innovative drug market and trading strategies [1][2] 2. **Biosimilar Procurement Policy Risks**: The implementation of biosimilar procurement policies poses risks, particularly if price controls are strict. However, experts believe that the difficulty of implementation in 2025 may lead to better-than-expected pricing [1][2] 3. **Commercial Insurance Directory Progress**: Slow progress in the commercial insurance directory could lead to market skepticism regarding its implementation, affecting company valuations if no clear advancements are made by mid-year [1][2] 4. **Eleventh Batch of Procurement Policies**: The upcoming eleventh batch of procurement policies is expected to be optimized, with a lower probability of stricter measures, alleviating market concerns [1][2] 5. **Impact of U.S. Healthcare Policies**: The U.S. healthcare fund usage regulation bill may affect disease recognition for patients, leading to differentiation among innovative drugs, favoring orphan drugs while negatively impacting others [1][3] 6. **PBM Responsibility Reform**: The reform of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBM) could lead to a decrease in overall drug prices in the U.S., benefiting the export of innovative drugs, although the exact impact remains uncertain [1][5] 7. **Potential Catalysts for Market Growth**: Anticipated catalysts for the innovative drug market include large-scale business development (BD) transactions, important conference data releases, and better-than-expected mid-year reports from leading pharmaceutical companies [1][15] Additional Important Insights 1. **Valuation of BeiGene**: BeiGene's valuation is primarily based on its product pipeline post-phase II clinical trials, with core products expected to generate peak sales between $9 billion and $11 billion, leading to an overall valuation of approximately $30 billion [1][9] 2. **Market Performance of PBM Companies**: In 2025, most PBM companies have shown good stock performance, while UnitedHealth has struggled due to internal issues [1][6] 3. **Bubble Phenomenon in Innovative Drugs**: There is a concern about bubble-like conditions in the innovative drug sector, particularly for companies with overly optimistic single-product expectations [1][8] 4. **China's Position in Global Oncology**: Chinese companies have transitioned from followers to leaders in the oncology treatment field, with many mainstream clinical products being developed domestically [1][13] 5. **Comparison of Market Valuations**: The higher valuation of Hong Kong stocks compared to U.S. stocks can be attributed to asset scarcity and differing market stages, with Hong Kong currently experiencing strong BD expectations [1][18] Conclusion The innovative pharmaceuticals industry is navigating a complex landscape of clinical data, regulatory changes, and market dynamics. Key players like BeiGene and Heng Rui are positioned for potential growth, while external factors such as U.S. healthcare policies and market sentiment will continue to shape the industry's trajectory.