Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene industry is currently in an expansion phase, with a projected capacity increase of nearly 25 million tons over the next three years. However, a significant supply gap of over 21 million tons is expected to persist until 2024, with an import dependency rate of 31% [2][5][28]. Group 1: Current Industry Status - China's ethylene capacity has grown from 28.54 million tons in 2019 to 53.74 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of over 25 million tons driven by the expansion of private refining and integrated projects [5][7]. - Despite rapid capacity expansion, the import dependency for downstream products remains high, with polyethylene and ethylene glycol import dependency rates at 34% and 26%, respectively [5][8]. - The planned capacity for new projects from 2025 to 2027 totals 24.82 million tons, with expected annual increases of 20%, 12%, and 9% for those years [7][25]. Group 2: Global Supply Dynamics - The global ethylene supply landscape is undergoing a transformation, with an estimated net increase in global capacity of approximately 1.13 million tons in 2025, 1.57 million tons in 2026, and 840,000 tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively [3][25]. - Significant capacity exits are anticipated in Europe and Japan, with a total of 597 to 830 million tons expected to be shut down between 2025 and 2027, representing 3-4% of global capacity [2][24][25]. - The exit of older, less competitive capacity in Europe and Japan is driven by high production costs, with European ethylene production costs estimated at $885 per ton, significantly higher than the $200-$350 per ton costs in the U.S. and Middle East [16][19]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ethylene industry is expected to reach a turning point post-2027, with potential marginal improvements in the market as new capacity aligns more closely with demand growth, which has historically been around 3.5% annually [3][25]. - If domestic and international policies effectively control new capacity and restructure older facilities, the industry may see accelerated recovery and a shift towards net exports by 2027 [39][40]. - The Chinese ethylene market is projected to account for approximately 35% of global capacity by 2027-2028, with a significant portion of new capacity concentrated in China and the Middle East [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, ratings include: "Weakly Bullish" (Urea), "Bullish within a Range" (Crude Oil, Asphalt, High - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, PX, PTA, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Methanol, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda, Styrene), and "Weakly Bearish" (Crude Oil, PP, LLDPE, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda) [4][8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][17][20][21][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][32][33][34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the meeting on September 7, which will exacerbate supply pressure and make the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market in Q4 2025 more severe. The price of oil is expected to be weak. The decline in raw material prices has dragged down the chemical industry. The weak pattern of olefins will continue. The implementation of measures such as "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" by Chinese leading petrochemical enterprises may weaken the upcoming anti - involution efforts in the petrochemical industry. Investors are advised to approach oil and chemical investments with a range - bound mindset and wait for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in the domestic petrochemical industry [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced. OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the September 7 meeting, and the US has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia. The supply pressure is increasing, and the oil price is expected to be weak [2][8] - **Asphalt**: The upward trend has paused. The market is focusing on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price is fluctuating. The market is concerned about negative factors, but geopolitical premiums have increased. The increase in warehouse receipts limits price increases [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low valuation [12] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the price is fluctuating. Inner Mongolia's market sentiment is good, but port inventories have increased. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - term, there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - term [24][25] - **Urea**: The market stalemate continues and is expected to strengthen. The market is waiting for the Indian tender information. The supply is expected to decrease, and autumn demand is expected to pick up [25][26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between low - inventory support and divergent expectations. The commodity sentiment is cold, and the polyester sales are falling. There is pressure on future supply [17][18] - **PX**: The sales of polyester downstream are poor, and sellers are under pressure to lower prices. The macro - financial market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and PX lacks positive support [13] - **PTA**: It is oscillating to find support, with cost and sentiment determining the direction. The commodity market sentiment is poor, and polyester sales are flat. There is support at the bottom, but processing fees may be compressed [13] - **Short - Fiber**: Sales are mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. The upstream cost is poor, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [20][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: The upstream cost is poor, and its own driving force is weak. It follows the cost fluctuations of raw materials [21] - **PP**: The oil price has fallen, and the support from maintenance is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [29][30] - **Propylene (PL)**: It fluctuates with PP in the short - term. The downstream cost pressure is increasing, and the price is mainly adjusted within a narrow range [30] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The oil price has decreased, and it fluctuates weakly. The oil price is under pressure, and the actual impact of domestic measures to address overcapacity is limited. The fundamentals are under pressure [28] - **Pure Benzene**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The import volume is increasing, and the demand of downstream products has not improved significantly [14][15][16] - **Styrene**: Short - sellers have reduced their positions, and the market has rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand of downstream products is poor. There is support at a certain price level, but there is a risk of further decline in valuation [16][17] - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses its performance, and it operates weakly. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost has decreased, and the export expectation is under pressure [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has temporarily reached a peak, and the market is cautiously bearish. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Considering the expected alumina production in the far - term, the downward space is limited [33][34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on basis and warehouse receipts for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided, along with their changes [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spread data, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, showing the changes in spreads [38] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - The report mentions monitoring of basis and spreads for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented [39][52][64] 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of change. For example, the energy index increased by 0.16% on the day, 1.59% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.39% in the past month, and decreased by 0.59% since the beginning of the year [281][282][284]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it uses descriptions like "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., with specific rating criteria provided at the end of the report [273]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is following the decline of raw materials such as coal and crude oil due to the absence of the expected anti - involution policy. The downstream demand of most chemical products is less than expected during the peak season. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the specific anti - involution policies of China's petrochemical industry [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Geopolitical prospects are uncertain, and the market is under supply pressure from OPEC+ rapid production increase and resilient US production. The high -开工 rate of refineries in China and the US is starting to decline, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices oscillate and decline. The supply tension has eased, and the demand is not optimistic. The absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The geopolitical premium has increased and then decreased with the increase of warehouse receipts. The demand has changed, and the cracking spread is still high. Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand to decline, with low valuation and following crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating, but the inventory pressure in the inland is limited. The futures price oscillates. The market buying sentiment is relatively stable, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities in the far - month [21]. - **Urea**: Foreign media reports have triggered an upward sentiment, but it is difficult to implement in practice. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and oscillate [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and the low inventory provides strong support. The price oscillates within a range, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be closed [14][16]. - **PX**: There is selling - short hedging pressure above, and the downstream polyester's willingness to chase the price has slowed down. The price is adjusted in the short term, with a relatively stable pattern and limited adjustment range [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream polyester is waiting and watching, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, the sales volume declines, and the price is passively adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [16][17][18]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The production reduction in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following the raw materials [18][20]. - **PP**: There is still some supply pressure, and it oscillates. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the demand is cautious [24][25]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP to oscillate in the short term. The price is affected by sentiment and inventory, and the processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus [25]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance provides some support, and it oscillates in the short term. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the supply pressure persists [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The inventories in the industry chain are all high, and it returns to a weak state. The short - term trend is dominated by sentiment, and it may return to inventory accumulation in the medium term [11][13]. - **Styrene**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and it resumes decline. The supply - demand situation is still bearish in the fundamentals, but short - term short - selling is against the trend [13][14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment weakens, and it runs weakly. The cost is stable, and the supply is decreasing while the demand has not changed much [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market observes the situation. The short - term spot increase slows down, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the long - term [28][29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in the spread [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and inventory status [31]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., showing the price differences between different products [32].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a "volatile" state, with some being "volatile and weak" or having specific support and resistance levels for trading[4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be volatile. The conflict in Ukraine has affected Russia's crude oil supply and refinery production, which will provide some short - term support to the oil product market. The chemical sector is influenced by raw materials, and the decline of chemical products will not exceed that of the raw material end. Asphalt has a relatively healthy pattern[2][3]. - Different products have different trends: crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the trend of crude oil; methanol, urea, etc. have their own specific trends based on supply, demand, and inventory factors[4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in refinery开工率 and the potential increase in crude oil inventory are concerns. Pay attention to short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation[10]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are volatile and falling. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline[11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in inventory and the weakening of some demand factors lead to the decline[12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It also follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the increase in supply, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation[13]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is volatile and weak. Although there are some policy - related boosts, the actual impact is limited. There may be opportunities to go long in the far - month contract[24][25]. - **Urea**: Some enterprises are under maintenance and shutdown, and the market is in weak consolidation. Wait for positive expectations, and pay attention to actual demand and the new Indian tender[25][26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: With low inventory, price support is strong. The delay in the restart of near - ocean devices and the expected increase in terminal demand provide support[16][17][19]. - **PX**: Affected by cost, after the seasonal improvement in demand, the bottom support is strong. It is expected to oscillate within a range and wait for the stabilization of oil prices[14]. - **PTA**: Due to insufficient cost support, the polyester sales atmosphere cools down. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4700 - 5000[14]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, sales decline, and prices are passively adjusted. It will oscillate in the short term and follow the trend of raw materials[20][21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: As the cost declines, prices are passively adjusted. It is expected to oscillate and follow the trend of raw materials[21][22]. - **PP**: With the weakening of macro - support, it oscillates and declines. Although there are some short - term news stimuli, the actual impact is limited[29][30]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows the oscillation of PP in the short term. The processing fee is a key concern[30][34]. - **Plastic**: Due to the retracement of macro - sentiment, it oscillates in the short term. The supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season[28][29]. - **Pure Benzene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and high inventory in the industry chain, it returns to a weak state[14]. - **Styrene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and prominent inventory pressure, it resumes falling. Although there are short - term emotional supports, the inventory pressure limits the increase[15][16]. - **PVC**: As market sentiment weakens, it operates weakly. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation[35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for the moment. In the short term, the spot increase slows down, and in the long term, it is recommended to buy on dips[35][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.53, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.53, change: 0.12), etc.[37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: 49, change: 32, warehouse receipts: 71500)[38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 95, change: 44), 1 - month TA - EG (343, change: - 37)[39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PTA/MEG: Oscillating [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of petrochemical reform policies boosts market sentiment, and supply disruptions strengthen the near - term pattern. The short - term market sentiment is more affected than the fundamentals, and the continuation of the market depends on the actual situation of the industrial chain fundamentals [2][12] - The supply - side unplanned maintenance of PTA is a driving force for the recent price increase. If the maintenance is fully implemented, the near - term supply - demand pattern will improve significantly. The demand - side season change provides a window for price increases, but the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness of downstream restricts price increases. MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with high far - term supply and low - level port inventory, making it difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3] - The petrochemical capacity reform has shown signs, but the lack of detailed rules for capacity elimination limits the speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are the keys to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] Summary by Directory 1. Petrochemical Reform Policy Expectations Boost Market Sentiment - Two news items have significantly boosted the sentiment of the chemical sector: China plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, and South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity. These reflect long - term policy regulation and global market changes, with a greater impact on short - term market sentiment than fundamentals [2][11] - The proportion of old - fashioned capacities of PX, PTA, and MEG is low, with those over 20 years old not exceeding 5%. It is difficult for them to directly benefit from capacity elimination, and the actual policy progress and implementation need long - term tracking [11][13] - The reduction of the market share of Japanese and South Korean petrochemical businesses has little direct impact on polyester products in the short term, but may bring future export opportunities for Chinese chemical products [11] 2. Supply Disruptions Strengthen the Near - Term Pattern, and Peak - Season Demand Remains to be Observed - The unplanned maintenance on the PTA supply side is a factor in the recent price increase. Low processing fees in August led to unplanned maintenance of some devices, and Hengli's plan to shut down two 500 - million - ton/year devices for a month will change the near - term PTA pattern from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the maintenance is fully implemented, it will increase the PTA loss by about 400,000 tons [3][16] - Although terminal orders have improved in mid - to late August and downstream loads have increased, the high inventory of polyester products of weaving enterprises and the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness limit the upside potential of raw material prices [21] - MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with the device maintenance loss in the second half of the year significantly lower than that in the second quarter. High coal - based loads and the restart of some non - coal - based devices make the far - term supply loose, but low - level port inventory strongly supports the price, and it is difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3][28] 3. Investment Recommendations - Since the petrochemical capacity reform has just shown signs and lacks detailed capacity elimination rules, it has limited impact on speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are key to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] - For PTA, the pattern has marginally improved under supply disruptions, with the near - term changing from balance to inventory depletion, and the short - term price is oscillating strongly. Considering the mandatory cancellation of 09 warehouse receipts, try the 10 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low. If the PTA device maintenance duration is less than expected, the speculative sentiment may decline rapidly [4][31] - For MEG, the contradictions are not prominent. Low inventory and increased far - term supply restrict the price range, and the operation should be within the oscillating range [4][31]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant changes in the petrochemical industry leading up to 2025, focusing on capacity growth and the challenges posed by overcapacity and demand shifts in the refining and ethylene sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Capacity Growth - Since 2015, there has been substantial growth in the production capacity of major petrochemical products, with ethylene, MEG, PE, PP, pure benzene, PX, PTA, and polyester showing cumulative increases of 179%, 219%, 131%, 150%, 130%, 255%, 130%, and 98% respectively [1] - The self-sufficiency rate for ethylene equivalent has improved significantly, rising from 57% in 2020 to 76% in 2024, with expectations for further increases due to upcoming production waves [1] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The refining industry is confronted with the peak and decline of refined oil demand, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than merely controlling new capacity additions [1] - The ethylene sector faces challenges from excessive new capacity driven by oil conversion and differentiated production routes (coal-based and gas-based), which exacerbate overcapacity issues [1] - There is a need for the 14th Five-Year Plan to control new capacity additions, tighten project approvals, and eliminate smaller projects that do not meet energy consumption and carbon emission standards [1]