Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company experienced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue faced pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with AI high-performance computing facility subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: 1. Intelligent Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year 2. AI Applications: Revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a strong growth of 262% year-on-year, representing 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue [3][25] - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 19.6 billion, 21.6 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for Baidu Group indicate a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with total revenue projected at 130.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is expected to drop to 19.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% [5][33] - Key financial metrics include an adjusted EPS of 7.13 yuan for 2025 and a projected P/E ratio of 14.9 [5][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [10][4] - The company is focusing on AI to drive growth in its core business, with significant advancements in its AI video product, Keling, which achieved quarterly revenue exceeding 300 million RMB [4][32] - The company has improved its gross margin to 55.1%, primarily due to enhanced server efficiency and reduced content costs [10][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Domestic revenue was 34.4 billion RMB (up 15% YoY), while overseas revenue was 1.15 billion RMB (down 13% YoY) [10][4] - The adjusted profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [10][4] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were 3.7 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year [10][4] User Engagement Metrics - The total monthly active users (MAU) for Q3 2025 was 731 million, a 2% increase year-on-year, while daily active users (DAU) reached 416 million, also up 2% year-on-year [2][17] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][17] Commercialization Efforts - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 15% year-on-year, with revenue from live e-commerce increasing by 41% [3][23] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI technology [3][28] - Live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [3][28] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling to 1 billion RMB for the year, driven by successful AI advancements [4][32] - The adjusted profit projections for 2025-2027 are 20.7 billion RMB, 23.5 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [3][21][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%. The retail segment contributed 250.6 billion yuan, growing 11% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in daily necessities and marketing revenue [1][9] - The logistics revenue reached 52.1 billion yuan, also up 15% year-on-year, while new business revenue surged by 214%, primarily due to the rapid growth of JD's food delivery service [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 5.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [2][10] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the daily necessities and platform model post-subsidy phase, with continuous optimization of supply chain efficiency and improving gross margins [3][21] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1,334.9 billion, 1,433.4 billion, and 1,558.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of +15.2%, +7.4%, and +8.7% respectively [4][21] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 30 billion, 41.5 billion, and 57.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of -37.2%, +38.1%, and +38.3% respectively [4][21] - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 9x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月14日 SEA（SE.N） 优于大市 2025Q3 财报点评：收入表现亮眼，电商加大物流基建布局 整体表现：电商/数字金融/游戏驱动收入增速亮眼。收入端看，2025Q3 公司 收入 60 亿美元，同比增长 38%，电商/数字金融/游戏业务增速分别为 35%/61%/31%。利润端看，本季度公司实现净利润 3.8 亿美元，净利率 6%， 实现经调整 EBITDA 8.74 亿美元，对应利润率 15%。 电商业务：收入端快速增长，加大物流建设影响利润释放。本季度电商业 务营收 43 亿美元，同比+35%，主要与 GMV 较快增长、货币化率持续提 升有关，25Q3 GMV yoy+28%，持续保持高速增长，预计全年 GMV 增速 25% 以上。平台货币化率从去年同期 11.0%提升至 11.7%，主要来自广告收 入的强劲增长，广告收入yoy超 70%，使用广告产品的商家数量同比+25%， 付费广告商家季度平均广告支出同比+40%。本季度电商经调整 EBITDA 为 1.86 亿美元，经调 EBITDA 利润率 4.3%，环比-1.7pct，除季节性因 素影响外还与公司加大物流建设投 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached $51.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with advertising revenue also growing by 26% [1][10] - The net profit was reported at $2.7 billion, significantly impacted by a one-time charge of $15.9 billion due to the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [1][10] - The company has raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to $70-72 billion, reflecting a 111% year-on-year increase in Q3 capital expenditures [2][12] Financial Performance - Overall revenue for Q3 was $51.2 billion, with advertising revenue at $50.1 billion, both showing a 26% increase year-on-year [1][10] - Operating profit was $20.5 billion, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 40%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year [1][10] - Adjusted net profit, excluding the one-time charge, was $18.6 billion, representing a 19% increase year-on-year [1][10] Business Highlights - Advertising revenue exceeded guidance, driven by a 14% increase in ad impressions and a 10% rise in average price per ad [2][11] - The AI-driven recommendation system improved user engagement, with Facebook user time increasing by 5% and Threads user time by 10% [2][11] - The annual revenue from AI advertising tools surpassed $60 billion, with advertisers using Advantage+ tools seeing a 14% reduction in customer acquisition costs [2][11] Performance Guidance - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $56 billion and $59 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%-22% [3][36] - Total expenses for the year are projected to be between $116 billion and $118 billion, with a significant increase expected in 2026 [3][36] Capital Expenditure - Q3 capital expenditures reached $19.4 billion, a 111% increase year-on-year, with full-year guidance raised to $70-72 billion [2][12] - The company plans to focus capital expenditures on AI-related infrastructure and hardware expansion [2][12] User Metrics - The Family of Apps reported 3.54 billion daily active users, an 8% increase year-on-year, with Instagram reaching 3 billion monthly active users [2][33] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) was $14.46, an 18% increase year-on-year [2][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's adjusted profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 89%, with revenue reaching 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [8] - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, with revenue of 65.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [2] - Increased subsidies have negatively impacted revenue growth, particularly in the delivery service segment, which saw a decline in growth rates [2][11] - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 22.8% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an operating profit of 230 million yuan, down 98% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 0.2%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [17] Core Local Commerce - Revenue from core local commerce was 65.35 billion yuan, with delivery services, commissions, online marketing, and other services contributing 23.66 billion, 24.95 billion, 13.55 billion, and 3.19 billion yuan respectively [11] - The operating profit for this segment was 3.72 billion yuan, down 75.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 5.7%, a decrease of 19.4 percentage points [11] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving by 3.1 percentage points sequentially [12] - The company plans to focus on core areas and accelerate the expansion of its supermarket business, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities in China [12] Future Outlook - The company expects significant losses in the core local commerce segment in Q3 2025 due to increased strategic investments and competitive pressures [20] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to -7.7 billion, 31.76 billion, and 46.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of -117%, -46%, and -35% [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health [6][18]. Core Insights - JD Health achieved a revenue of 35.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. The growth was driven by an increase in active user numbers and the online penetration of health products [10][18]. - The company reported a non-IFRS net profit margin increase from 9.3% to 10.1% year-on-year, with operating profit margin rising from 3.6% to 6.2% [2][11]. - Active users surpassed 200 million, with a 10% year-on-year growth, and daily consultation volume exceeded 500,000 [3][12]. Revenue Summary - In H1 2025, product revenue reached 29.3 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, while service revenue was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase [10][18]. - The number of merchants increased to over 150,000, up more than 50,000 from the end of the previous year [10][18]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to growth in advertising revenue and improved supply chain capabilities [2][11]. - Fulfillment expenses rose from 2.9 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, but the fulfillment cost rate decreased from 10.4% to 10.1% due to cost dilution from increased order volume [2][11]. Operational Data Summary - The company is actively promoting instant retail services, connecting over 200,000 pharmacies, and expanding online medical insurance payment services to nearly 200 million people [3][12]. - JD Health has launched AI medical products, with over 50 million users served by AI medical assistants by the end of June [3][12]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 70.1 billion, 80.8 billion, and 90.9 billion yuan, with adjustments of +7%, +10%, and +11% respectively [18]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.5 billion, 6.2 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan, with adjustments of +25%, +27%, and +28% respectively [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][31] Core Views - The company's e-commerce business is experiencing strong growth, with quarterly revenue exceeding 250 million RMB [3][30] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 is 56.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [9][31] - The company is expected to maintain a steady performance, with AI continuously empowering its main business [31] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue reached 35 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [9] - The gross profit margin was 55.7%, up 0.3% year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to improved bandwidth server efficiency [9] - The sales expense ratio was 30%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continuous decline in customer acquisition costs [9] Commercialization - E-commerce GMV grew by 18% in Q2 2025, with live e-commerce revenue increasing by 26% [20] - The number of monthly active buyers in e-commerce reached 134 million, with a penetration rate of 19.0% [20] - Advertising revenue for Q2 2025 was 198 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [26] AI Product Development - The AI product "Keling" generated over 250 million RMB in revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on enhancing user interaction experience [30] - The company has raised its annual revenue forecast for Keling AI to 125 million USD due to its successful progress [30] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts adjusted profits of 202 billion RMB, 238 billion RMB, and 281 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [31] - The expected revenue for 2025 is approximately 143.08 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 12.8% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health [6][18]. Core Insights - JD Health achieved a revenue of 35.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. The growth was driven by an increase in active user numbers and the online penetration of health products [10][18]. - The company reported a non-IFRS net profit margin increase from 9.3% to 10.1% year-on-year, with operating profit margin rising from 3.6% to 6.2% [2][11]. - Active users surpassed 200 million, with a 10% year-on-year growth, and daily consultation orders exceeded 500,000 [3][12]. Revenue Summary - In H1 2025, product revenue reached 29.3 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, while service revenue was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase [10][18]. - The number of merchants increased to over 150,000, up more than 50,000 from the end of the previous year [10][18]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to growth in advertising revenue and improved supply chain capabilities [2][11]. - Fulfillment expenses rose from 2.9 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, but the fulfillment cost rate decreased from 10.4% to 10.1% due to cost dilution from increased order volume [2][11]. Operational Data Summary - The company is actively promoting instant retail services, connecting over 200,000 pharmacies, and expanding online medical insurance payment services to nearly 200 million people [3][12]. - JD Health has launched AI medical products, with over 50 million users served by AI medical assistants by the end of June [3][12]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 70.1 billion, 80.8 billion, and 90.9 billion yuan, with adjustments of +7%, +10%, and +11% respectively [18]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 5.5 billion, 6.2 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan, with adjustments of +25%, +27%, and +28% [18].