行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 券商并购重组再增一例，看好长期格局改善 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商方面，本周中金公司发布公告拟以发行 A 股股票方式换股吸收合并东兴证券及信达证券， 券商并购重组再添一例，看好长期头部集中趋势；保险方面，三季报以来印证了存款搬家、增 配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定性进一步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合 中长期拐点向上的判断，我们认为整体配置性价比正逐步提高，板块重估进行时。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 券商并购重组再增一例，看好长期格局改善 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 1）券商方面，本周中金公司发布公告拟以发行 A 股股票方式换股吸收合并东兴证券及信达证 券，券商并购重组再添一例 ...

国泰海通晨报 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【纺织服装研究】亚玛芬体育：公司 25Q3 收入/op margin 均超指引，所有地区加速增长，持 续看好中长期成长性。 2、【生物医药研究】老百姓：行业整体仍有所承压，公司积极加强门店聚焦于下沉策略，看好环 比向好趋势。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 盛开(分析师) 021-23154510 shengkai@gtht.com S0880525040044 钟启辉(研究助理) 021-23185686 zhongqihui@gtht.com S0880125042254 本次评级：增持 现价：34.76 元 海外报告：亚玛芬体育(AS.N)《25Q3 业绩超指引，所有地区实 现加速增长》2025-11-20 2025 年 11 月 21 日 投资建议：考虑到公司 Q3 表现优异，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for mixed FOF products and recommends brokers with strong institutional service capabilities and investment advisory abilities, specifically mentioning CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities as favorable options [41]. Core Insights - As of October 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 36.02 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.26%. However, the total fund shares decreased by 0.38% to 31.24 trillion shares, with equity funds down by 2.73% and bond funds down by 5.46% [5][8][9]. - The report highlights a significant outflow of existing funds, with personal investors' risk appetite affected by market volatility, while institutional funds continue to seek yield enhancement [22][28]. - The issuance of new funds saw a dramatic decline, with a total of 722.93 billion shares issued in October, a decrease of 56.85% from the previous month. Equity fund issuance dropped by 60.11%, and bond fund issuance fell by 77.98% [10][13][16]. - Mixed FOF products have shown strong performance, with new mixed FOF fund issuance increasing by 67.28% month-on-month, indicating a shift towards more attractive fixed-income plus products amid market volatility [28][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Outflow and Market Overview - In October 2025, the public fund market experienced a net outflow, with total net asset value increasing to 36.02 trillion yuan, while total fund shares decreased to 31.24 trillion shares [5][8][9]. - The average unit net value rose to 1.15 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.65% [5]. 2. Impact of Market Volatility on Investor Behavior - Personal investors' risk appetite has been negatively impacted by market fluctuations, leading to declines in ordinary stock, enhanced index, and mixed fund shares by 4.72%, 7.40%, and 6.02% respectively [22][28]. - Conversely, QDII and FOF funds emerged as significant safe-haven options, with share growth rates of 14.22% and 14.10% respectively [22][28]. 3. New Fund Issuance Trends - The issuance of new funds has significantly decreased, with equity and bond fund issuance dropping by 60.11% and 77.98% respectively, while mixed FOF funds saw a notable increase of 67.28% [10][13][28]. 4. Recommendations for Investment - The report recommends focusing on brokers with strong institutional service capabilities and investment advisory skills, specifically highlighting CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities as key players in the market [41].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **U.S. repurchase (repo) market** and its liquidity conditions, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in repo rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Repo Rate Surge**: At the end of October, the U.S. repo rate surged to **47 basis points**, the highest since the pandemic, indicating significant liquidity pressure in the market [1][2][11]. 2. **Use of Fed's Standing Repo Facility**: The usage of the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility peaked at **$50 billion**, marking the highest level since its establishment in 2021, before declining significantly in the following days [2][21]. 3. **Market Composition**: The U.S. repo market consists of **money market funds, dealer banks, and hedge funds**, with funds flowing primarily through tri-party repos and bilateral delivery versus payment agreements [1][4]. 4. **Liquidity Distribution**: The repo market experienced two distinct phases during the Fed's balance sheet reduction, affecting liquidity distribution and borrowing costs among market participants [7][8]. 5. **Impact of Government Actions**: The recent U.S. government shutdown and Treasury bond issuance led to an increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which in turn reduced bank reserves and affected the repo market dynamics [9][21]. 6. **End-of-Month Effects**: At month-end and quarter-end, dealer banks reduce their balance sheets to meet regulatory requirements, leading to increased borrowing costs for hedge funds and spikes in repo rates [10][11]. 7. **Misinterpretation of Liquidity Crisis**: Claims of a liquidity crisis among foreign banks' U.S. branches were deemed incorrect, as the observed decrease in their reserves was a natural outcome of reduced arbitrage activities rather than a liquidity shock [12]. 8. **Liquidity Definition**: Liquidity refers to the ease with which economic entities can obtain cash, and a liquidity crisis occurs when institutions struggle to access necessary cash [13][14]. 9. **Comparison of Liquidity Events**: The liquidity crisis in March 2020, triggered by the pandemic, was characterized by widespread asset sell-offs and a significant rise in the dollar's value, contrasting with the more contained liquidity pressures observed in recent months [17][18]. 10. **Future Repo Market Outlook**: The repo market's liquidity pressure is expected to ease, contingent on the reopening of the government and potential court rulings affecting TGA balances. The Fed may also consider resuming asset purchases if repo rates continue to rise significantly [21][22]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Arbitrage Mechanisms**: In normal conditions, the tri-party repo rate should lie between the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate (3.75%) and the standing repo facility rate (4%), ensuring that money market funds earn more than depositing with the Fed [5][6]. - **Market Resilience**: Recent fluctuations in the repo market have not significantly impacted broader asset classes, indicating a degree of resilience in the financial system [19]. - **Dollar Strength**: The recent strength of the dollar is attributed to various factors, including the Fed's stance on interest rates and positive economic data, rather than a direct liquidity crisis [24].

Market Performance - US stock markets opened lower, continuing the downward trend from Asia, with the Dow Jones down 0.88%, S&P 500 down 1.2%, and Nasdaq down 1.63% [1][2] - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Oracle, Tesla, and Intel dropping over 3%, while Google and Nvidia fell more than 2% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a decline of over 1.6%, with notable drops in stocks such as Bilibili (over 4%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and Alibaba, JD, and Li Auto (over 2%) [3][4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell to $102,979, a decrease of 4.45% in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum dropped to $3,475.39, down 6.69% [5] Market Outlook - Executives from top Wall Street investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, expressed concerns about current stock valuations, predicting a potential market sell-off in the near future [6] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a 10% to 20% market correction within the next 12 to 24 months, while Morgan Stanley views a 10% to 15% correction as a healthy market development [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [8] Core Insights - A total of 46 listed brokerages reported their Q3 earnings, achieving revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 435.65 billion and 178.95 billion yuan respectively for the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 17.7% and 62.2% [2][4] - The market trading activity remains high, and it is expected that the performance of brokerages will continue to grow significantly, presenting investment opportunities [4] - The insurance sector has seen a substantial upward adjustment in profit growth expectations for the first three quarters, with notable investment returns alleviating short-term concerns [4] - The report indicates a gradual improvement in overall cost-effectiveness for investments, supported by the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs [4] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - The report highlights the strong earnings performance of brokerages, with significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025 [2][4] - Specific recommendations include Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable profit growth and dividend rates [4] Market Trends - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.5% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.6%, indicating a relatively weak performance compared to the broader market [5] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 232.53 billion yuan, up 29.38% from the previous period, reflecting a recovery in market activity [5][42] Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory updates include the issuance of the "Qualified Foreign Investor System Optimization Work Plan" by the CSRC, aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic market to foreign investors [6][64] Company Announcements - Notable company earnings include New China Life Insurance reporting revenue and net profit of 137.25 billion and 32.86 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 28.3% and 58.9% [6] - Other companies such as Guotai Junan and CICC also reported significant increases in revenue and net profit for the same period [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [5]. Core Insights - The investment banking and brokerage industry is entering a new phase of investment and financing rebalancing, with leading brokers benefiting from enhanced corporate client resources, professional service capabilities, and cross-border service capabilities [2][5]. - The report highlights four core tasks to construct a reform framework aimed at promoting investment and financing rebalancing: advancing sector reforms, solidifying market stability, expanding institutional openness, and strengthening risk prevention and investor protection [5]. - The report notes significant growth in equity financing, with A-share IPOs increasing by 67% year-on-year and refinancing (excluding large issuances) rising by 139% in the first three quarters [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Banking and Brokerage Overview - The report discusses the impact of the 2025 Financial Street Forum, where the Chairman of the CSRC, Wu Qing, emphasized the role of comprehensive reform in driving high-quality development of the capital market [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the global financial landscape is undergoing deep adjustments, presenting opportunities for the revaluation of Chinese assets and highlighting the need for patient capital support for new industries like artificial intelligence [5]. Recommendations - The report recommends leading brokers such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and CICC H, which are expected to maintain their leading positions in the evolving investment banking ecosystem [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The industry is entering a period of concentrated third-quarter report disclosures, with the market remaining at high levels, indicating that brokerage firms are likely to continue their high growth trend, presenting investment opportunities [2][4] - In the insurance sector, profit growth for the top companies in the first three quarters has been significantly revised upward compared to previous expectations, with notable investment returns alleviating short-term concerns. This supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerating valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment is gradually improving, aligning with the judgment of a long-term upward turning point [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.0% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 8.1%, although it ranks lower in relative performance against the CSI 300 index [5] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with an average daily turnover of 17,973.14 billion yuan, down 18.04% week-on-week [5] Insurance Sector - The cumulative premium income for the insurance industry in August 2025 reached 47,999 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with life insurance premiums growing by 11.43% [23][24] - The total assets of the insurance industry as of August 2025 were 40.11 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.32% [28][29] Brokerage Firms - The report recommends stable profit growth and dividend rates for companies such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, highlighting their strong market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in the equity market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24% and the ChiNext index by 8.05% [42][47] - The financing scale for equity and bond markets showed a rebound in September, with equity financing reaching 416.34 billion yuan, up 86.6% month-on-month [54]

Market Overview - The overall valuation of the market has increased, with the Wind All A Index leading the rise, up by 2.9 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile[5] - The PB-LF historical percentile also saw an increase across indices, with the CSI 300 leading at a rise of 4.4 percentage points[5] Industry Insights - In the automotive sector, PE valuation increased by 1.1 percentage points, leading among industries[6] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant rise in PB valuation, up by 14.0 percentage points, indicating strong performance[6] Trading Activity - Trading activity has increased, with the turnover rate rising by 26.0% for the SSE 50 index, while total transaction volume decreased by 1.25%[6] - As of September 30, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% compared to September 26, 2025[6] Company Performance - The company reported a revenue growth from 678,800 yuan in 2022 to 1,908,800 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7%[12] - The gross profit margin improved significantly from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, maintaining at 32.4% in the first half of 2025[12] Risk Factors - Risks include uncertainties in overseas economic conditions and geopolitical factors that may impact market stability[8] - Potential risks in the pharmaceutical sector include uncertainties in original IP incubation and fluctuations in consumer demand[13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the investment banking and brokerage industry [3]. Core Insights - The high growth observed in the first half of the year is primarily attributed to base effects, with an annualized return of 3.9%, which is the highest in three years but still below the average of 4.8% from 2019 to 2021. The industry is undergoing a transformation, with leading brokers moving towards global allocation and smaller brokers seeking changes in asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue & Yield - In the first half of 2025, listed brokers reported a net income from proprietary trading of 76.3 billion yuan (after interest expenses), accounting for 30.9% of total revenue, marking a historical high. This represents an 80% year-on-year growth, with an incremental income of 33.9 billion yuan, mainly driven by the recovery in equity trading and proprietary business [3][4]. - The profit margin for the first half of 2025 shows an annualized yield of 3.9%, continuing a recovery trend over three years (2.4%, 3.2%, 3.6% in 2022-2024), but still below the 4.8% average from 2019-2021 [3][4]. Investment Scale - The total investment scale of listed brokers reached 6.8 trillion yuan by the end of the period, with a net increase of 320.6 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, excluding the effects of mergers. The increase in investments includes a rise of 348.3 billion yuan in FVTPL assets and 102.4 billion yuan in OCI equities, while AC and OCI debts decreased by 92.9 billion yuan [3][4]. - The structure of investments shows that 64% are in fixed income, 13% in equities, and 20% in products, with significant increases in cross-border fixed income and high-dividend OCI investments [3][4]. Business Model Changes - The proprietary trading model is evolving, with leading brokers expanding globally and smaller brokers adapting their asset allocation strategies. There is a notable shift towards cross-border investments and the establishment of mixed investment departments, particularly among smaller brokers [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that proprietary trading remains a pillar of the industry, necessitating transformation in the new era. It recommends prioritizing investments in brokers with significant comprehensive advantages, such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, while also suggesting attention to firms with strong equity trading flexibility, like Industrial Securities and Changjiang Securities [3][4].