证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-18 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251217：关键金属成为大国博弈关键优势 一级市场发行情况：本周（20251208-20251212）银行间市场及交易所市 场共新发行二级资本债 4 只，发行规模为 360 亿元。 二级市场发行情 况：本周（20251208-20251212）二级资本债周成交量合计约 3292 亿元， 较上周增加 1343 亿元。 固收点评 20251210：澳弘转债：PCB 领域稳健经营者 关键金属的出口管制措施成为了我国进行大国博弈的关键优势 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20251214：重要会议表述对债券市场操作的指示性意义 临近年底，围绕明年政策的博弈增加，因而本周发布的中央政治局会议和 中央经济工作会议通稿对于市场的影响更大。对于债券市场而言，2026 年或难以出现 2022-2024 年的利率单边下行情况，政策的灵活性令债券 市场也应秉持波段操作的思路。 固收周报 20251213：转债配置建议关注预期差较大的三个价值 ...

因博通令人失望的业绩指引和甲骨文项目延迟的传闻，投资者信心遭受重创，引发市场剧烈抛售。博通股价周五重挫12%，费城半导体指数重挫 5%创下数月最大跌幅，股市的抛售甚至蔓延到债券市场，AI巨头的债券收益率溢价大幅跃升。这场连锁反应或许正在拷问：对于承诺中的AI回 报，市场还有多少耐心？ 市场的恐慌情绪迅速蔓延，美股七巨头Mag7股票的表现远逊于标普500指数中的其他493公司。 更关键的是，这场冲击波不仅限于股票市场， 债券交易员也纷纷采取行动，减少对该行业的风险敞口。根据MarketAxess的数据，投资者持有甲骨文公司债券所要求的收益率溢价大幅跃 升。 而这场抛售由两记重拳引燃。 首先，芯片设计商博通在周四盘后公布了财报，尽管销售额创下历史新高，但其对AI业务的收入预测未能满足华 尔街的极高期望。 其次，甲骨文刚公布完不及预期的财报后，其为ChatGPT所有者OpenAI建设的部分数据中心，又被曝完工日期可能从2027年推迟至2028年， 这直接引发了市场对AI基础设施建设速度的质疑。 这一系列连锁反应凸显出AI叙事对当前市场的关键重要性，它足以拖累整个大盘，并向投资者提出了一个核心问题：对于承诺中的AI回 ...

北京时间12月11日，甲骨文发布了该公司截至2025年11月30日的2026财年第二财季（对应2025年9月至11月）财报。 报告显示，甲骨文第二财季总营收为160.58亿美元，与去年同期的140.59亿美元相比增长14%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长13%。 据LSEG提供的数据显示，分析师此前平均预期甲骨文第二财季营收将达162.1亿美元。 | | | | | | | | | % Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Three Months Ended November 30, | | | | % Increase | (Decrease) | | | | | % of | | | % of | (Decrease) | in Constant | | | 2025 | | Revenues | 2024 | | Revenues | in US $ | Currency (1) | | REVENUES | | | | | | | | | | Cloud | S | 7,977 | 50 ...

甲骨文(ORCL.US)的常态化超预期增长业绩，已经不足以缓解与公司债务堆积以及AI泡沫即将破裂相关的市场浓 厚担忧情绪，一份堪比英伟达2023-2024年的那种动辄100%+的"炸裂式跃升业绩"，以及在业绩展望中公布更多除 OpenAI外的新云计算订单，才有可能全面缓和市场对于该公司基本面以及全球与AI算力基础设施密切相关联的科 技股的"AI泡沫负面情绪"。 即将于美东时间周三收盘后公布业绩的甲骨文，可谓是近期这一轮AI泡沫论调席卷全球股市导致股票市场陷入调 整的罪魁祸首。现在，甲骨文公司的业绩前景与未来展望，已经深度"捆绑"于ChatGPT开发者OpenAI长期、高额 且远远未兑现的大型AI数据中心云计算基础设施订单以及"星际之门"AI基建项目相关的云计算IaaS投资回报。 为了满足这些遥远的未来式的承诺，毛利率已然陷入困境的甲骨文正通过大规模举债与强劲资本支出(capex)助力 OpenAI扩建或新建大型AI数据中心;然而其自由现金流正转为负数，信用违约掉期 (CDS) 价格飙至多年高点，甲骨 文这种深度绑定OpenAI的无比强劲云计算基础设施订单背后的愈发高企债务负担与偿债风险不容忽视。 估值高达50 ...

来源：央视财经 本周，全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"，多国央行将陆续公布最新的利率决议。其中最受市场关注的是美 联储本周的议息会议。 上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，俄乌和平协议的关键谈判陷入僵局，美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势持续，多重地缘政治风险推 动国际油价上周小幅上涨，其中美油期货主力合约价格累计上涨约2.6%，布油期货主力合约价格涨幅为 0.87%。 上周国际金价小幅下跌 贵金属市场方面，因部分投资者赶在国际金价涨至近六周高位后获利了结，上周国际金价累计下跌 0.28%。 本周迎来 " 超级央行周 " 市场认为美联储年内第三次降息几无悬念 上周美国三大股指集体上涨 上周发布的多项经济数据表明，美国就业市场持续疲软、9月关键通胀数据好于预期，市场对于美联储的降 息预期持续升温，提振投资者乐观情绪，美股三大指数上周全部累计上涨。其中道指累计上涨0.50%，标 普500指数累计上涨0.31%，纳指涨幅为0.91%。 本周，全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"，多国央行将陆续公布最新的利率决议。其中最受市场关注的是美 联储本周的议息会议。因近期美国劳动力市场持续疲软，市场普遍预期美联储将在此前两次降息的基础 上，再次下调 ...

上周国际金价小幅下跌 贵金属市场方面，因部分投资者赶在国际金价涨至近六周高位后获利了结，上周国际金价累计下跌约 0.3%。 本周迎来"超级央行周" 市场认为美联储年内第三次降息几无悬念 本周，全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"，多国央行将陆续公布最新的利率决议。其中最受市场关注的是 美联储本周的议息会议。因近期美国劳动力市场持续疲软，市场普遍预期美联储将在此前两次降息的基 础上，再次下调利率25个基点。 但美联储内部关于是否降息仍分歧巨大，市场关注的焦点转向以下三点：一是联邦公开市场委员会内部 投票的结果，美联储主席鲍威尔能否以最少反对票推动本轮降息，过于分裂的美联储将会直接影响市场 信心。二是鲍威尔在议息会议后的表态，以及他明年是否会继续留任美联储理事。三是美联储官员们预 测后续利率路径的"点阵图"。 转自：北京日报客户端 上周发布的多项经济数据表明，美国就业市场持续疲软、9月关键通胀数据好于预期，市场对于美联储 的降息预期持续升温，提振投资者乐观情绪，美股三大指数上周全部累计上涨。其中道指累计上涨 0.50%，标普500指数累计上涨0.31%，纳指涨幅为0.91%。 上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，俄乌和平协 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.10%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.33% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.62%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC40 up by 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.65% [1] - WTI crude oil is down by 0.19% at $59.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 0.30% at $62.98 per barrel [1] Economic Insights - Strong online sales on Cyber Monday reached $17.3 billion, indicating consumer resilience despite economic concerns [2] - The overall retail spending increase is driven more by rising prices than by an increase in sales volume, highlighting a K-shaped economic recovery where wealthier consumers and lower-income groups behave differently [2] Company News - MongoDB reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $628 million, significantly exceeding market expectations, with its core product, Atlas, growing by 30% [4] - Apple faces increased risks of collective lawsuits in the EU following a ruling by the European Court of Justice, which allows users to file claims in the Netherlands [5] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced new partnerships during its annual re:Invent conference, focusing on cloud security and sustainability [5] - Michael Burry criticized Tesla for being "absurdly overvalued," citing concerns over stock dilution due to executive compensation [6] - Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire Celestial AI for over $5 billion, aiming to address memory bottlenecks in AI computing [6]

Core Viewpoint - MongoDB reported strong earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, exceeding Wall Street expectations, with a revenue of approximately $628 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 19% [6][7]. The company's stock surged over 24% following the announcement [1]. Financial Performance - The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $665 million and $670 million, significantly higher than Wall Street's average expectation of approximately $626 million [5][6]. - MongoDB raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $2.434 billion to $2.439 billion, up from a previous range of $2.34 billion to $2.36 billion, also exceeding analyst expectations [5][6]. - The core cloud product, MongoDB Atlas, achieved a revenue growth of 30%, accounting for about 75% of the total revenue in the third quarter [6][7]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - MongoDB is positioned as a key beneficiary of the increasing demand for AI computing power on cloud platforms, particularly through its deep integration with Google Cloud and the Gemini AI product suite [3][4][9]. - The company is capitalizing on the trend of AI-native startups adopting Google Cloud and MongoDB Atlas as their primary database and cloud infrastructure [4][9]. - The demand for AI applications is driving MongoDB's growth, with a notable increase in large enterprise business and self-service offerings [8][15]. Strategic Initiatives - The new CEO, CJ Desai, emphasized the company's focus on becoming the foundational data platform for AI workloads, leveraging its document model and integrated search capabilities [18][19]. - MongoDB is investing in engineering and marketing to enhance developer engagement and support the growing ecosystem of AI-native companies [16][19]. - The acquisition of Voyage AI is seen as a strategic move to acquire talent and technology that will bolster MongoDB's position in the AI space [16]. Customer Growth and Engagement - The total number of customers exceeded 62,500, with an increase of 2,600 in the third quarter alone, reflecting a 65% year-to-date growth in customer acquisition [18][20]. - MongoDB's platform supports various enterprise applications, providing robust security, durability, and performance standards necessary for AI applications [17][19]. - The company is witnessing strong demand from both AI-native startups and large enterprises seeking to modernize their technology stacks [15][19].

盘前市场动向 1. 12月2日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.10%，标普500指数期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨 0.33%。 | 疆 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年2月 | 62.98 | 63.36 | 62.86 | -0.19 | -0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年1月 | 59.21 | 59.67 | 59.09 | -0.11 | -0.19% | 市场消息 QT结束叠加美联储鸽派立场!"华尔街神算子"乐观展望：标普500年底前剑指7300点新高。有"华尔街神算子"之称的金融市场研 究机构Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee预计，12月美股将表现强劲，标普500指数到年底可能攀升至7300点高位，这意 味着较当前水平上涨10%。Tom Lee表示："标普500指数达到7000点仅需上涨2%。从当前点位来看，我认为该指数12月可能实 现5%、甚至10%的涨幅。"他指出，美联储结束量化紧缩(QT)将成为市场上涨的主要推动力。他将当前形势与2019年 ...

Core Insights - MongoDB reported strong earnings for Q3 of fiscal year 2026, exceeding Wall Street expectations, leading to a stock price surge of over 20% in after-hours trading [1][5] - The company's growth is closely tied to its integration with Google Cloud and the Gemini AI product line, positioning it as a key beneficiary in the AI ecosystem [2][7] Financial Performance - For Q3, MongoDB's total revenue was approximately $628 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 19%, significantly above the expected $592 million [4][5] - The Non-GAAP earnings per share were reported at $1.32, far exceeding the anticipated $0.80 [4][5] - MongoDB's core product, Atlas, achieved a revenue increase of 30%, accounting for about 75% of total revenue, surpassing the expected growth of 20%-25% [4][5] Future Guidance - The company raised its revenue guidance for Q4 to a range of $665 million to $670 million, well above the Wall Street consensus of approximately $626 million [2][4] - For the full fiscal year 2026, MongoDB increased its revenue forecast to between $2.434 billion and $2.439 billion, up from a previous estimate of $2.34 billion to $2.36 billion, and above the average analyst expectation of $2.36 billion [3][4] Market Context - The strong performance of MongoDB is reflective of the broader demand for AI-related infrastructure and services, particularly in the context of Google's significant investments in AI and cloud computing [6][8] - The launch of Google's Gemini AI products has driven a surge in AI token processing, indicating a robust demand for AI capabilities that MongoDB is well-positioned to support [9][10]