晨报 成材 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 12 日 逻辑：Mysteel 建筑企业调研数据显示，2025 年 12 月实际钢材采购 量 667 万吨，月环比减少 6.6%；1 月份企业计划钢材采购量 578 万吨，1 月份实际采购量月环比或大幅下滑。上周，全国 95 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 56.91%，环比上升 1.76 个百分点；钢厂平均开工率 72.97%， 环比上升 4.34 个百分点。上周，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79.31%，环比上 周增加 0.37 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 37.66%，环比上周减少 0.44 个百分 点；日均铁水产量 229.5 万吨，环比上周增加 2.07 万吨。乘联分会：2025 年 12 月新能源乘用车国内零售销量达 133.7 万辆，同比增长 2.6%，环比 增长 1.2%；1-12 月累计零售 1280.9 万辆，增长 17.6%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 原材料：程 鹏 上周成材冲高回落，周中原料的上涨带动钢价走高，但钢材基本面较 弱， ...

人民财讯1月9日电，乘联分会数据显示，2025年12月新能源乘用车厂商出口27.3万辆，同比增长 119.8%，环比下降4.0%；2025年1—12月累计出口242.2万辆，增长86.2%。 ...

Core Insights - The tax revenue data reflects the resilience and vitality of China's high-quality economic development, with significant growth in various sectors and a stable manufacturing tax revenue share [2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to November, the total tax revenue exceeded 29 trillion yuan, with tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) surpassing 16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Corporate investment in machinery and equipment increased by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating strong confidence among market participants [2][3] - Sales revenue in the retail sector for home appliances and communication devices grew by 26.5% and 20.3% respectively, supported by the "old for new" consumption policy [4] Group 2: Economic Structure Optimization - The manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role, with its tax revenue share remaining around 30% [3] - Clean energy sectors, including wind and solar power, saw sales revenue growth of 16.8% and 35.7% respectively, while thermal power revenue declined by 7.2% [3] Group 3: Economic Dynamics - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.7%, with smart device manufacturing growing by 28.2% [5][6] - The manufacturing sector's sales revenue for high-end equipment rose by 8.3%, with specific segments like computer and communication equipment seeing increases of 12.3% and 10.3% [5] Group 4: Consumption Trends - The consumption market has shown positive changes, with new consumption scenarios and policies driving demand, particularly in the retail of new energy vehicles, which grew by 19.1% [4] - The tourism, sports health, and consumption sectors targeting the elderly and youth demographics are also exhibiting robust growth [4] Group 5: Tax Policy and Support - Tax policies supporting manufacturing and innovation have resulted in a reduction of 16.65 billion yuan in taxes and fees for the manufacturing sector in the first ten months [5] - The introduction of reverse invoicing for resource recovery enterprises has facilitated large-scale equipment updates and consumption recycling, with nearly 9 billion yuan in reverse invoicing this year [8] Group 6: Cross-Border Consumption - The optimization of the outbound tax refund policy has led to a 285% year-on-year increase in the number of travelers receiving refunds [9] - By the end of November, there were 12,252 stores offering tax refunds, with over 7,000 providing "immediate refund" services [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and a return to profitability, driven by increased vehicle sales and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Performance Review - Q3 2025 revenue reached 19.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 150 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, although it decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Cumulative net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 180 million yuan [1]. Development Trends - Multiple vehicle models contributed to sustained high sales growth, with Q3 2025 sales volume at 174,000 units, up 102% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The C series and B series saw sales increase to 98,000 units and 61,000 units respectively, with October sales surpassing 70,000 units for the first time [1]. - The T series small car's sales proportion decreased, leading to a 5.4% increase in average revenue per vehicle to 112,000 yuan [1]. - The D19 large six-seater model is expected to further enhance the product matrix and growth potential [1]. Profitability and Cash Flow - Q3 2025 gross margin improved to 14.5%, up 6.4% year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from economies of scale, cost control, and product structure optimization [1]. - The combined selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 14.3%, reflecting effective management [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 reached 4.88 billion yuan, indicating ongoing improvement in cash flow performance [1]. Global Strategy and Market Expansion - The company is advancing its globalization strategy, with a strong new vehicle cycle and the launch of the Lafa5 sports sedan and D19 flagship SUV [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company exported 17,000 units, with total exports for the first three quarters reaching 38,000 units [2]. - By the end of September, the company established over 700 sales and service outlets in international markets, enhancing its competitive edge in the new energy passenger vehicle sector [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 860 million yuan and 4.89 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 14.4 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [2]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 12.6% to 78.00 HKD, reflecting a 20.5 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a potential upside of 42.3% from the current stock price [2].

Group 1 - China Communications Signal (中国通号) won four significant railway projects with a total bid amount of approximately 1.36 billion yuan, accounting for about 4.19% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [1] - China Railway (中国中铁) secured 11 major engineering projects with a total bid price of approximately 50.215 billion yuan, representing about 4.34% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [2] - China Merchants Energy (招商轮船) received two new ships, including a 175,000 cubic meter LNG carrier and an 82,000-ton bulk carrier, expanding its fleet to 27 LNG vessels and 103 bulk carriers [3][4] Group 2 - North Medical (北大医药) obtained a drug registration certificate for Apremilast tablets, used for treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in adults [5] - Jihong Co. (吉宏股份) projected a net profit increase of 55%-65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, estimating a profit of 209 million to 222 million yuan [6] - Dongjie Intelligent (东杰智能) signed a framework agreement with a Malaysian construction company for an automated warehousing project valued at approximately 3.387 billion yuan [9] Group 3 - New Link Electronics (新联电子) won a procurement project from the State Grid with a total bid amount of 55.7756 million yuan [10] - Macro Construction (宏润建设) is expected to be awarded an EPC project with a bid price of 1.36 billion yuan [12] - Huakang Clean (华康洁净) secured a project for medical purification engineering with a bid price of 136 million yuan [22] Group 4 - New Nuo Wei (新诺威) received approval for clinical trials of its monoclonal antibody injection for Alzheimer's disease [23] - Changgao Electric (长高电新) won multiple procurement projects from the State Grid with a total bid amount of 313 million yuan, accounting for 17.77% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [24] - Tian Shili (天士力) received approval for clinical trials of TSL2109 capsules for late-stage solid tumors [25] Group 5 - China Giant (中国巨石) announced a share buyback plan to repurchase 30 million to 40 million shares at a price not exceeding 22 yuan per share [48] - Dalong Real Estate (大龙地产) is in the process of acquiring a 60% stake in Beijing Chengzhu Real Estate Company [50]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Hozon Auto's affiliated company, Hozon New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., along with two other companies, has filed for bankruptcy review in a court in Tongxiang, Zhejiang Province, indicating potential financial distress within the company [1]. Company Overview - Hozon New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. was established in October 2014 with a registered capital of over 2.8 billion yuan [4]. - The company has been involved in multiple bankruptcy restructuring applications and has a significant number of enforcement and high consumption restriction records [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Hozon New Energy reported a revenue of 13.148 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 6.6871 billion yuan [5]. Legal Issues - The company has faced several bankruptcy cases, with the latest being filed by three individuals against Hozon Auto and its subsidiaries [1][2]. - The court handling these cases is the Tongxiang People's Court in Zhejiang Province [1].

Core Insights - In July, the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 213,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 120.4% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44.7% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to July, the total wholesale sales amounted to 7.63 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35% [1]

Core Insights - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 789,000 units from July 1 to July 27, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%, but a month-on-month decline of 17% [1] - Cumulatively, the retail sales for the year amount to 6.258 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 31% [1] - The wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers totaled 816,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17%, but a month-on-month decline of 20% [1] - Year-to-date wholesale figures stand at 7.264 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35% [1]

Core Insights - In June, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [1] Industry Summary - The data indicates a strong upward trend in the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market, reflecting increasing consumer demand and market penetration [1] - The growth rate of 29.7% suggests a robust expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, which may be driven by favorable government policies and advancements in technology [1]