证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 DeepSeek V3.1 推动国产芯片适配，英伟达将为人形机器人推新大脑 定期报告 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0825） 相关报告 1.《OpenAI 万亿基建计划启 动，海洋经济孕育新动能——全 球产业趋势跟踪周报（0818）》 2.《世界机器人大会正式开幕， ChatGPT-5 重磅发布——全球 产业趋势跟踪周报（0811）》 3.《科技巨头算力竞赛再加码， AI+应用端加速落地——全球产 业趋势跟踪周报（0804）》 4.《2025 世界人工智能大会开 幕，GPT-5 或于 8 月初发布—— 全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0728）》 5.《ChatGPT 统一智能体横空 出世，Kimi 大模型新突破——全 球产业趋势跟踪周报（0721）》 6.《Grok-4 大模型正式发布，多 行业聚焦整治"内卷式"竞争— — 全 球 产 业 趋 势 跟 踪 周 报 （0717）》 本周产业趋势主要集中在国产大模型及算力和海外 AI 应用端方面。国产大模型 及 算 力 方 面 ： DeepSeek 在 8 月 21 日 下 午 于 官 方 公 众 号 正 式 ...

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 新技术继续发力，全球新能源车亮眼 ——汽车行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 乘用车 8 月前半月增速放缓，全年累计依旧强劲 乘用车：8 月 1-17 日，全国乘用车市场零售 86.6 万辆，同比去年 8 月 同期增长 2%，较上月同期增长 8%，今年以来累计零售 1,361.1 万辆， 同比增长 10%；8 月 1-17 日，全国乘用车厂商批发 84.1 万辆，同比去 年 8 月同期增长 20%，较上月同期增长 7%，今年以来累计批发 1,636.6 万辆，同比增长 13%。 新能源：8 月 1-17 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 50.2 万辆，同比去 年 8 月同期增长 9%，较上月同期增长 12%，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 渗透率 58.0%，今年以来累计零售 695.8 万辆，同比增长 28%；8 月 1- 17 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 47.4 万辆，同比去年 8 月同期增长 18%，较上月同期增长 10%，全国乘用车厂商新能源批 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 港股市场速览 优于大市 市场再度启动，风格转换显著 股价表现：市场再次启动，风格发生转换 本周，恒生指数+0.3%，恒生综指+1.9%。风格方面，中盘（恒生中型股+1.9%） ＞大盘（恒生大型股+0.5%）＞小盘（恒生小型股+0.1%）。 业绩预期：整体平稳上修，汽车改善显著 恒生指数 EPS（动态预期 12 个月正数 EPS，后同）+0.2%；恒生综指 EPS +0.3%。 概念指数中，表现较强的有：恒生汽车（+5.0%）、恒生消费（+4.2%）；表 现较弱的有：恒生公用事业（-1.2%）、恒生金融（基本持平）。 国信海外选股策略中，表现较强的是红利贵族 50（+0.7%）；表现较弱的是 ROE 策略进攻型（-0.9%）。 22 个行业上涨，8 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：纺织服装（+5.9%）、 汽车（+5.5%）、轻工制造（+5.1%）、综合（+4.1%）、国防军工（+2.6%）； 跌幅居前的行业有：煤炭（-4.9%）、电力及公用事业（-1.9%）、有色金属 （-1.4%）、电力设备及新能源（-0.9%）、建筑（-0.8%）。 估值水平：总体略有拉升，行业分化 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain recommendation [6] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a stable and rapid growth in passenger vehicles, with retail sales for the first ten days of August reaching 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a month-on-month increase of 6%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year have reached 13.198 million units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1][20]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, retail sales for the same period reached 262,000 units, marking a 6% year-on-year increase and a 57.9% market penetration rate. Cumulatively, new energy vehicle retail sales have reached 6.717 million units, a 28% year-on-year growth [1][20]. - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and Huawei is accelerating, with companies like GAC and SAIC enhancing their partnerships to improve product iteration and technological upgrades [2][41]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector saw a 3.08% increase in the week from August 9 to August 15, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [12]. - Major stocks in the passenger vehicle sector, such as SAIC Group and Great Wall Motors, showed significant gains, while some stocks in the automotive parts sector experienced substantial increases, with Feilong Co. rising by 39.06% [12][15]. Data Tracking - Passenger vehicle wholesale for the first ten days of August was 403,000 units, a 16% year-on-year increase, with cumulative wholesale reaching 15.927 million units, a 13% year-on-year growth [20]. - The new energy vehicle wholesale for the same period was 229,000 units, a 15% year-on-year increase, with cumulative wholesale reaching 7.862 million units, a 35% year-on-year growth [20]. Industry News - GAC Group announced a 600 million RMB investment in Huawei's automotive technology project, aiming to create a high-end independent automotive brand [2][41]. - The implementation of a 60-day payment term for suppliers by major automotive companies has largely been fulfilled, improving cash flow for parts suppliers [3][38]. - The market share of Chinese new energy passenger vehicles reached 68.3% globally in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the market share of pure electric vehicles [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The US stock market experienced a rapid rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 3.9% [3] - There is significant sector differentiation in capital flows, with 17 sectors seeing inflows and 7 experiencing outflows [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been revised upward by 0.4% for the next 12 months [5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 closed at 6,389, reflecting a 2.4% increase for the week and a 19.6% increase year-to-date [11] - The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite also showed strong performance, with increases of 3.7% and 3.9% respectively [11] Price Trends - The technology hardware and equipment sector led the market with an 11.5% increase, followed by the automotive and automotive parts sector at 8.3% [3] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector saw a decline of 2.7% [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 were +$1.7 billion this week, contrasting with a significant outflow of -$10.8 billion in the previous week [4] - The technology hardware and equipment sector attracted the most capital, with inflows of $2.3 billion [19] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates that 21 sectors have seen upward revisions in earnings expectations, with consumer services and commercial and professional services leading at +0.7% [5] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector was among those with upward revisions, despite its recent performance decline [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates a potential small net inflow of northbound funds, estimating a net inflow of 3.3 billion yuan during the week of August 4-8, 2025, compared to a net outflow of 12.1 billion yuan the previous week [11] - The report highlights that the top active stocks in the northbound trading include Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 9.4 billion yuan, accounting for 19% of the stock's trading volume for the week [11] - The report notes that flexible foreign capital estimated a net inflow of 1.8 billion yuan during the recent week, contrasting with a net outflow of 8.5 billion yuan the week before [11] Group 2 - The report states that a total of 14.8 billion Hong Kong dollars flowed into the Hong Kong stock market during the week of July 30 to August 5, 2025, with stable foreign capital outflow of 29.8 billion Hong Kong dollars and flexible foreign capital outflow of 3.2 billion Hong Kong dollars [18] - It mentions that the main inflows from southbound funds were observed in software and services, as well as retail sectors [23] - The report indicates that stable foreign capital primarily flowed into pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences, while flexible foreign capital saw significant inflows into banks and materials [23] Group 3 - The report highlights that foreign capital saw a net outflow from the Japanese stock market amounting to 198 billion yen during the week ending July 28, 2025, compared to a net inflow of 688.9 billion yen the previous week [30] - It also notes that in July, overseas institutional investors withdrew 2.1 billion dollars from the Indian stock market, contrasting with a net inflow of 1.7 billion dollars the previous month [30] - The report states that since 2023, the cumulative net inflow into the Japanese stock market has reached 7.7 trillion yen [30] Group 4 - The report indicates that in the US stock market, global mutual funds saw a net inflow of 6.8 billion dollars in June 2025, reversing a net outflow of 13.3 billion dollars the previous month [37] - It mentions that in Europe, global mutual funds recorded net inflows into the equity markets of the UK, Germany, and France, amounting to 0.2 billion dollars, 19.8 billion dollars, and 17.8 billion dollars respectively [37] - The report highlights that since 2020, the cumulative net inflow into the US equity market has reached 730.9 billion dollars [37]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a total of 79 merger and acquisition (M&A) events during the period from July 28 to August 3, with 14 classified as significant M&A transactions. Out of these, 15 M&A events were completed, while no significant M&A transactions were finalized [10]. - Recent policy updates emphasize that government investment funds should not engage in public trading of stocks, except for M&A, directed placements, and strategic allocations. This aims to prevent the increase of local government hidden debts [7][8]. - The report notes that the restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 1.07% during the specified period, indicating a strong performance in the restructuring sector [25]. Summary by Sections M&A Activity Overview - During the week of July 28 to August 3, there were 79 M&A events involving listed companies, with 2 failures. The significant M&A events included 14 transactions, with 15 completed [10][16]. Major M&A Updates - The report lists several major M&A transactions involving state-owned enterprises and private companies, with notable transactions including China Shipbuilding's acquisition of China Heavy Industry for approximately 11.52 billion CNY [14]. Control Changes - Four listed companies reported changes in actual control, with notable transitions including Renfu Pharmaceutical being taken over by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [19]. Market Performance - The restructuring index showed a positive trend, outperforming the broader market index, which reflects a favorable environment for M&A activities [25].

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 批发快于零售，乘用车仍处 10%以上增长区间 乘用车：7 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车市场零售 144.5 万辆，同比去年 7 月 同期增 9%，较上月同期降 19%，今年以来累计零售 1234.6 万辆，同比增 11%；7 月 1-27 日,全国乘用车厂商批发 150.5 万辆，同比去年 7 月同期 增 17%，较上月同期降 25%，今年以来累计批发 1478.5 万辆，同比增 13%。 新能源：7 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车市场新能源车零售 78.9 万辆，同比 去年 7 月同期增长 15%，较上月同期下降 17%，新能源市场零售渗透率 54.6%，今年以来累计零售 625.8 万辆，同比增长 31%；7 月 1-27 日，全 国乘用车厂商新能源批发 81.6 万辆，同比去年 7 月同期增长 17%，较上 月同期下降 20%，新能源厂商批发渗透率 54.2%，今年以来累计批发 726.4 万辆，同比增 35%。 央企整合企业发展为先，中国长安集团成立 中国长安汽车集团有限公司 7 月 2 ...

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [7] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in growth, with passenger vehicles continuing to show stable and rapid growth [2] - The report highlights the synergy between technological advancements and anti-involution reforms, driving the industry's development momentum [5] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review (2025.07.19-07.25) - The automotive sector rose by 1.03% this week, with all related sub-sectors also increasing. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.69% [13] - The commercial vehicle sector saw the highest increase at 4.22%, while individual stocks like Great Wall Motors and BYD also performed well [13][16] Data Tracking (2025.07.19-07.25) - From July 1-20, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while wholesale sales were 960,000 units, up 22% year-on-year [21] - In the new energy vehicle segment, retail sales reached 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 54.9% [21] Industry News (2025.07.19-07.25) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed a new policy to ban the transfer of new cars to second-hand status within six months of registration to combat zero-kilometer second-hand cars [34][35] - Guangdong and Anhui provinces are implementing measures to promote fair competition in the automotive industry, including commitments from manufacturers to optimize payment processes for suppliers [42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology-driven sectors such as artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, as well as opportunities in the anti-involution segment, particularly in dealership-related areas [5]