滙富快訊 香港及中國市場日報 今日焦點: ►永旺信貸（900 HK，股價7.23港元，市值30億港元，公允 價值12.00港元）3Q26業績穩健，貸款規模創新高，資產質 量持續改善 3Q26業績符合預期。永旺信貸（ACSA）在香港提供各類消費信貸融資服 務，包括簽發信用卡，提供私人貸款，租賃融資等。3Q26業績穩健，收 入按年增長3.8%至4.61億港元，符合我們預期。公司在精準營銷與品牌 力提升的雙重推動下，有效控制銷售費用，營業費用率按年收窄1個百分 點至45%。減值前營業利潤按年增長6.7%至2.37億港元。淨利潤達1.19億 港元，按年增長13.5%，符合我們預期，連續第五個季度利潤增速高於收 入增長。 | 香港及中國市場指數 | | 收 市 每日升跌 今年累升 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指數 | 25,774 | -0.1% | 28.5% | | 中資企業指數 | 8,913 | -0.3% | 22.3% | | 紅籌指數 | 4,067 | -0.2% | 7.6% | | 滬深300指數 | 4,620 | 0.2% | 17.4% | | 上海A股 ...

在当今消费信贷市场蓬勃发展的浪潮中，"还呗"作为一款备受瞩目的借贷产品，背靠A股上市公司 分众 传媒 ，由 上海数禾信息科技有限公司 运营，凭借 金融科技 的概念在市场中一路狂奔。然而，深入探 究其运营模式与用户反馈，不难发现，"还呗"实则是一个隐藏在金融科技光环下的高利贷陷阱，伴随着 一系列令人震惊的乱象。 "还呗"的产品页面虽清晰标注年化利率（单利）为7.2%-35.99%，看似符合监管要求，但实际上却暗藏 玄机。大量投诉案例表明，用户的真实借贷成本被一系列复杂且不透明的收费项目推高至36%的监管红 线边缘。"会员费""担保费"成为了利率的"放大器"，是"还呗"被用户诟病最多的手段。 营销电话的"无差别攻击"也让用户苦不堪言。即便是从未借款的用户，也可能被卷入这场骚扰漩涡。据 《财中社》2025年9月的报道，有用户仅因好奇在"还呗"小程序中输入了手机号，未完成注册流程，便 在随后几分钟开始接到密集的上海区号来电，骚扰持续数月。另一名用户则是在注销账号后，仍被"还 呗"工作人员用私人手机号持续推销骚扰长达半年。这种无差别的、侵犯性极强的营销方式，将"获 客"变成了"扰民"，严重影响了用户的正常生活。 面对潮 ...

近日，演员杜淳的妻子王灿兮在微博平台发文称，自己从未开通过花呗，却频繁遭到花呗相关催债电话骚扰，该事件迅速引发广大网友关注和热议。 另外，据信号新闻报道，负责花呗安全技术的工作人员回应，用户遭遇此类情况可先向平台反馈，平台核实后会进行对应处理，但对于信息保护措施等核心 问题，并未给出明确答复。这种模糊回应，也让部分用户对平台的信息安全保障能力产生质疑。 作为重庆蚂蚁消费金融有限公司旗下消费信贷产品，花呗以"先消费、后还款"为核心机制，凭借便捷性和灵活性等优势，在市场中占据重要地位。此外，依 托支付宝生态，无需实体卡片与复杂手续，大幅降低了用户接入成本。 然而，在为广大用户带来便利的同时，花呗也暗藏不少隐忧，进一步加剧了用户端的信任危机。在黑猫投诉平台上，关于支付宝花呗的相关搜索词超4万 条，暴力催收已成为投诉重灾区。 有网友反映，"我在支付宝花呗上有逾期，目前暂无能力偿还，但肯定会还，可支付宝花呗催收人员采取暴力催收方式，给我父母打电话，导致我妈妈心悸 就医"。这类事件的频发，不仅损害了用户权益，更不断消耗着平台积累的用户信任。 不少有过类似经历的网友纷纷分享自身遭遇，并支招解决办法。收到网友建议后，王灿兮于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $6.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance showed steady results with a net profit of 510 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%. However, challenges are anticipated in Q4 2025 due to tightening loan supply and rising risks [1][4]. - The net profit take rate (NTR) increased to 2.0% in Q3 2025, primarily driven by reduced marketing expenses following a decrease in loan disbursements [1][4]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having utilized $25 million of its $50 million buyback plan [1]. Performance Summary Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net profit reached 510 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 68% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2% [1]. - The NTR improved to 2.0% from 1.92% in Q2 2025, attributed to lower marketing expenses [1][4]. - The company anticipates a significant decline in Q4 2025 profits to approximately 340 million RMB, a decrease of 34% from Q3 2025, due to reduced loan volumes and increased credit costs [4]. Risk Assessment - The first-day overdue rate increased slightly by 0.05% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a minor uptick in risk [2]. - The company has been cautious in provisioning, with credit costs rising by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, now accounting for 4.15% of loan balances [2]. Loan Disbursement Trends - New loan disbursements in Q3 2025 decreased by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter to 50.9 billion RMB, primarily due to a reduction in the company's ICP business [3]. - The report forecasts a further decline in loan disbursements by approximately 10% in Q4 2025, driven by regulatory changes and increased risk aversion [3]. Valuation Adjustments - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to 1.81 billion RMB, 1.66 billion RMB, and 2.48 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting significant adjustments of -17.1%, -48.3%, and -31.2% [5][12]. - The target price has been adjusted down to $6.00 from $12.00, based on a revised expected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.53x for 2026 [5][14].

Core Insights - The core point of the news is that Zhejiang Vipshop Payment Co., Ltd. has increased its registered capital from 100 million RMB to 200 million RMB, marking a 100% increase, which enhances its capital strength and risk resilience in the payment industry [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase and Strategic Importance - The capital increase directly enhances the payment institution's capital strength and aligns with regulatory requirements for stable operations in the payment sector [1][2]. - For Vipshop, this capital increase is not merely a financial supplement but a critical step in upgrading its financial technology infrastructure, providing a solid foundation for its core e-commerce business and related financial services [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Value of Payment License - Vipshop Payment, established in 2011, holds a payment business license from the People's Bank of China, allowing it to conduct internet payment services [2]. - The payment license is seen as a "digital lifeline" for platforms like Vipshop, enabling control over cash flow and data flow, which is essential for building a competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Integration of Payment and Financial Services - The strategic significance of the capital increase is expected to be reflected in the core product "Vipshop Flower," which has evolved from a consumer installment tool to a key driver of transactions and financial connectivity [3]. - The integration of payment capabilities enhances user payment flexibility and willingness to consume, supported by a stable payment channel [3][4]. Group 4: Scene Finance and Competitive Landscape - The payment industry is experiencing dynamic changes, with Vipshop's capital increase and other platforms' activities indicating a shift towards "scene finance" [5]. - The successful model of integrating e-commerce, payment, and consumer finance has been validated by the growth of products like JD's White Bar and Meituan's Monthly Payment [5][6]. Group 5: Unique Advantages and Future Challenges - Vipshop's clear user profile and stable consumption scenarios provide it with unique advantages in the competitive landscape of scene finance [6]. - The focus on specific consumption scenarios allows for a higher degree of alignment with user needs, which is crucial for future competition [6].

Core Insights - The trend of Chinese tech giants expanding their financial services overseas is gaining momentum as they seek opportunities in less competitive markets while facing challenges in their domestic market [1][2][12] Group 1: Overview of Overseas Expansion - Major Chinese companies like Ant Group, Tencent, Didi, Meituan, and ByteDance are venturing into international markets, offering a variety of financial services from payments to digital banking and personal loans [1][2] - The overseas expansion is characterized by technology and business model exports, which not only promote Chinese products but also foster local inclusive finance [2][12] Group 2: Didi's International Financial Services - Didi has established a significant presence in Mexico, focusing on credit services and electronic payments, and has been recognized by local regulators for its financial offerings [4][7] - The company aims to enhance user experience by providing basic payment services and exploring savings and micro-loan options in Brazil and Mexico [6][7] Group 3: Ant Group's Strategy - Ant Group is leveraging its core strengths in payment technology and risk control to expand its international footprint, with a focus on cross-border digital payments and financial services [8][9] - The company has adopted a strategy of "technology licensing + strategic investment + ecosystem cooperation" to integrate into local markets while avoiding regulatory hurdles [9][12] Group 4: Tencent's Approach - Tencent's overseas financial strategy revolves around its WeChat ecosystem, offering cross-border payment solutions and supporting local digital banks with its cloud computing capabilities [10][11] - The company is cautious in its expansion, focusing on partnerships and technology empowerment rather than direct competition with local players [11][12] Group 5: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Chinese tech giants face significant challenges in their overseas ventures, including stringent regulatory environments, competition from local firms, and a lack of user trust [2][13][15] - The shift from East Asia to regions like the Middle East and Latin America reflects a strategic pivot to less saturated markets, aiming to meet local financial needs [17][18] Group 6: Future Directions - The focus of Chinese companies is shifting from individual service offerings to building comprehensive ecosystems that integrate various financial services with e-commerce, social media, and other platforms [17][19] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, prioritize local compliance, and leverage advanced technologies to enhance their international operations [19][20]

Group 1 - The US IPO market is expected to rebound in 2025, with 40-60 large IPOs anticipated, bringing the total to 190 and raising $35 billion [1] - Key sectors for potential IPOs include technology, fintech, and consumer goods, with Klarna and StubHub leading the way [1] - The list of companies to watch for potential IPOs in Q4 includes Avalara, Wealthfront, and Grayscale [1] - The momentum of the IPO rebound is expected to continue into 2026, with tech leaders like Databricks, Canva, and Proofpoint poised for recovery [1] Group 2 - As autumn approaches, trading activity is expected to reach its fastest pace since 2021, driven by a surge in IPO enthusiasm [2] - In August, 29 new IPO applications were submitted, with 10 seeking at least $50 million, double the number from the previous year [2] - A total of 113 US IPO companies submitted new or updated public applications in the past three months, with 15 seeking at least $50 million [2] - The thriving SPAC market is providing an alternative route for companies to go public [2] Group 3 - Technology IPOs are returning to the market at an encouraging pace, although overall activity remains below 2021 levels [4] - The pricing of tech IPOs this year has exceeded last year's levels, with many large transactions yielding substantial returns [4] - Retail investor enthusiasm for technology, fintech, cryptocurrency, and AI is driving this IPO rebound [4] Group 4 - Klarna, a leading IPO candidate, plans to raise $1 billion in its upcoming IPO, making it one of the largest IPOs of the year [5] - Other notable companies that submitted IPO applications in August include Netskope, Via Transportation, Figure, Pattern, and Gemini [5] Group 5 - Klarna offers "buy now, pay later" loans and has approximately 111 million active customers and 790,000 merchants across 26 countries as of June 2025 [7] - Klarna facilitated a total merchandise volume (GMV) of $112 billion in the 12 months ending June 30, 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is potentially entering a significant opportunity, described as an "epic opportunity," due to the introduction of personal consumption loan subsidies, which are expected to stimulate the consumption market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumption - The newly introduced consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to address insufficient domestic demand and weak consumer confidence, which are currently hindering economic recovery [5][6]. - The policy is designed to lower the cost of consumer loans, thereby enhancing residents' consumption capacity and stimulating market activity [6][8]. - Fund companies believe that the subsidy policy will benefit the consumer sector significantly, with expectations of continued policy support for consumption in the future [8][10]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector has underperformed in the market, with the CSI Consumer Index down 2.11% year-to-date as of August 14, 2023, indicating a potential investment opportunity due to low valuations [10][11]. - Current market sentiment towards the consumer sector is pessimistic, with valuations dropping below 20 times earnings, suggesting that the sector may be oversold [10][11]. - Despite short-term challenges, structural opportunities within the consumer sector are still worth monitoring, particularly in areas like automotive and service consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The subsidy policy is not only focused on consumption but also aims to rebalance the entire domestic demand chain, potentially benefiting sectors like banking and technology services [12][13]. - Banks are expected to benefit from reduced financing costs and increased demand for retail loans, which could lead to a positive cycle of growth in the consumer market [12][13]. - The revival of consumer activity is likely to enhance transaction volumes in payment services and local life platforms, creating opportunities for technology service providers [12][13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenue for Q2 was RMB 5.22 billion, up from RMB 4.69 billion in Q1 and RMB 4.16 billion a year ago [16] - Non-GAAP net income increased by 30.8% year over year to RMB 1.85 billion, while non-GAAP EPADS rose by 48.8% to RMB 13.63 [5][22] - The effective tax rate for Q2 was 19.3%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.57 billion in Q2, compared to RMB 3.11 billion in Q1 and RMB 2.91 billion a year ago [17] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.65 billion in Q2, up from RMB 1.58 billion in Q1 and RMB 1.25 billion a year ago [17] - Loan volume supported by total technology solutions business increased approximately 150% year over year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan facilitation and origination volume increased by approximately 16% year over year to RMB 84.6 billion [4] - New credit line users grew 40% year over year to 1.79 million, while the number of new borrowers increased by approximately 60% year over year to 1.23 million [10] - Total ABS issuance in the first half of the year nearly matched the full year total in 2024, with issuance costs declining to a record low [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its AI plus bank strategy and enhancing its AI agent platform to drive digital transformation in financial institutions [11][13] - The company aims to optimize products and services to better address user needs while improving operational efficiency [13] - The company is exploring overseas expansion opportunities, with initial operations launched in the UK [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that consumer confidence and credit demand remain soft, with no clear signs of recovery [31] - The company plans to prioritize risk management and take a cautious approach to loan origination in the second half of the year [33] - The company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.8 billion for 2025, reflecting a prudent approach amid economic uncertainties [26] Other Important Information - The company has executed a share repurchase plan, purchasing approximately 7.1 million ADS for a total of approximately RMB 277 million [25] - The company reported a provision coverage ratio of 662% in Q2, indicating a robust financial position [21][58] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the management's latest outlook on loan volume growth? - Management indicated that consumer confidence remains soft, with a decrease in short-term household loans and no clear signs of recovery [31][32] Question: What are the latest views on take rates? - Management stated that the Q2 take rate was 5.4% and expected it to remain around 5% in Q3, with potential volatility due to new regulations [34][35] Question: What is the estimated impact of the new regulation on the ICE business? - Management views the new rules positively for the industry, expecting improved health and sustainability, while preparing alternative plans for the ICE business [40][44] Question: What are the main considerations for selecting target markets for overseas expansion? - Management considers regulatory environment, openness to fintech innovation, and financial infrastructure when selecting target markets [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's WeChat Pay has updated its consumer credit service "Fenfu" to include both "payment at the time of consumption" and "borrowing to bank card for consumption" as part of its offerings, indicating a shift towards more flexible borrowing options for users [1][2]. Group 1: Product Features and Competition - Fenfu is a consumer credit product that allows users to borrow for various consumption scenarios, such as dining and shopping, but does not support red envelope transfers [2][5]. - The newly introduced borrowing feature is designed to assess user consumption levels based on transaction history, which aids in credit evaluation [2][8]. - Fenfu is currently in a gray testing phase and is only available to select users, while the more established product, WeChat's "Weilidai," is more visible and accessible within the app [3][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Performance - Tencent's financial technology revenue has been steadily increasing, with consumer loan services contributing significantly to this growth [6][7]. - In the first half of 2024, Tencent's financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached RMB 555 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [6]. - The registered capital of Tencent's financial subsidiary, Caifutong Xiaodai, ranks among the top in the industry, indicating strong financial backing for its lending operations [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the integration of consumption loans and cash loans could enhance flexibility in funding usage, catering to both immediate consumption and short-term financial needs [8]. - The reliance on transaction history for credit assessment may improve risk control but could also exclude users with low transaction frequency despite having good credit [8]. - As Fenfu matures, it is expected to elevate the scale of consumer credit offerings within Tencent's ecosystem, intensifying competition in the consumer credit market [8].