1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current US-Iran conflict only affects the methanol market from the emotional and expected aspects, without substantial long-term supply interruption. High inventory and sufficient domestic production capacity form a strong safety buffer, and price fluctuations are mainly short-term pulses. Key attention should be paid to the two core risks of unexpected conflict escalation and lower-than-expected downstream demand. [45] 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,580 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 18% and a position of 820,000 lots. The basis strengthened slightly but remained at a discount. [6] - **Methanol Spot Prices in Various Regions and Price Differences between Production and Sales Areas**: The methanol spot market rose overall this week. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2,355 yuan/ton, a 5.84% increase from last week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,918 yuan/ton, a 3.51% increase from the previous week. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, there was an expectation of reduced supply. Some olefin enterprises made periodic purchases, and the overall trading center of the market moved up. However, the overall trading volume was relatively limited, and some industry players remained on the sidelines. The increase in coastal areas was higher than that in inland areas, and the price difference between production and sales areas widened. [9] - **Methanol Foreign Prices and Domestic-Foreign Price Differences**: Globally, methanol prices rose to varying degrees. This week, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far future was 274 - 310 US dollars/ton, and Iranian cargoes lacked active offers. The price in South Korea rose to around 380 US dollars/ton, and the European methanol price was 355 - 360 euros/ton, a 17.74% increase from the beginning of the week. [12] Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of March 5, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but a 5.72 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and a 3.96 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest decreased slightly this week, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance. [16] - **Import and Transshipment Arbitrage Windows**: Both the import and transshipment arbitrage windows were closed. [17] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.4133 million tons, still at a relatively high level in history. It increased by 14,600 tons from last week, a 1.04% increase, and was 35.76% higher than the same period last year. The estimated available methanol supply in coastal areas was 724,000 tons. The overall提货 volume in Taicang this week increased compared with last week, and the提货 volume of ship cargoes and road transport increased steadily. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships in China from early to mid-March will be 270,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the arrival of methanol cargoes from the Middle East in the later period. [22] - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: Tensions in the situation have raised concerns about the energy supply security in the Middle East, causing international crude oil and natural gas prices to rise, which has increased the cost of imported methanol. [24] - **Methanol's Upstream - Coal**: The domestic thermal coal market rose first and then fell this week. Most coal mines in production had good sales, and the pithead prices continued to be adjusted strongly. However, the downstream's acceptance of high prices declined, and the procurement rhythm slowed down. Some coal mines with relatively fast cumulative price increases in the early stage had relatively large price corrections. The profit of coal-to-methanol production has been repaired, and coal-to-methanol enterprises have a strong willingness to start production. [29] - **Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates**: The operating loads of dimethyl ether, methylal, acetic acid, and formaldehyde increased, while the demand for olefins was weak. The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 72%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 55.6%, a 7.52% increase from the previous week. [31][32] - **Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: Not elaborated in detail in the report - **Methanol's Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol-to-olefin plants this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 2.14 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.29%, the same as last week. This week, the olefin plant in Shaanxi was under maintenance, and the operating load of domestic CTO/MTO decreased. Among the externally purchased plants, Ningbo Fude and Chengzhi Phase II planned to reduce their loads, Sierbang and Xingxing had not restarted yet, and the two sets of equipment of Lianhong were operating at low loads. The operating conditions of coastal externally purchased plants were average, and the demand side remained weak. [42] Part 3: Future Outlook - **Short-term Operation**: Driven by events, closely monitor the development of the situation. The market is volatile and prone to fluctuations, so avoid blindly chasing high prices. - **Medium-term Operation**: Wait for the layout window after the emotional impact fades, and pay attention to the convergence of the 5 - 9 spread. Anchor on the fundamentals (core fundamental data such as port inventory, downstream operating rate, and domestic plant load). After the geopolitical sentiment fades and the price falls to a reasonable range, conduct trend layout based on the supply - demand pattern, and do not participate in highly uncertain emotional games. [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has a significant impact on the methanol market. There are two major bullish factors: concerns about the supply of Iranian methanol and the increase in the cost of methanol downstream due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, which in turn raises the valuation of methanol [3]. - The short - term trading logic is the concern about the Iranian geopolitical conflict and high capital sentiment, while the long - term trading expectation is the expected shutdown of MTO in the distant future [11][12]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2200 - 2450 [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - China is the world's largest methanol consumer, with an annual methanol import volume of over 10 million tons. In 2025, over 60% of methanol imports came from Iran. The geopolitical conflict has two bullish factors for methanol: concerns about Iranian methanol supply and the increase in downstream costs due to rising crude oil prices [3]. - Key indicators to monitor include whether the conflict will affect Iran's main methanol production areas, whether the South Pars gas field will be attacked, and the situation of Iran's main ports and the Strait of Hormuz. As of February, Iran's methanol shipment volume was 1.8 million tons, and future shipment progress needs to be closely monitored [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 05 was 2220. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 05 base - spread declined [14]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: None [14]. - **Trend Judgment**: The methanol market is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2200 - 2450. No specific strategy recommendations are provided [15]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data such as northwest methanol inventory (excluding MTO), northwest MTO inventory, southern and northern line methanol plant inventories, national methanol plant inventories, and national net plant inventories are presented in the form of seasonal charts [22][26][30]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Multiple port inventory data, including China's port inventory, provincial - level port inventories, and port inventory of specific regions, as well as information on port throughput and arrival volumes, are presented in the form of seasonal charts [36][46][52]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [64]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [64]. - **Likely Positive Information**: The US and Israel's military strike on Iran has led to a sharp rise in global risk - aversion sentiment, a direct 8% increase in the dark - market price of crude oil, and a halt in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The domestic crude oil SC is expected to hit the daily limit [65][66]. - **Likely Negative Information**: None [67]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event to Watch - The status of the Strait of Hormuz [68]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, affected by the war, the inland price has increased by 80 - 90 [70]. - This week, the 5 - 9 month - spread has increased, mainly due to the war in Iran [72]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Price data of various products such as coal prices, methanol market prices, and warehouse receipts are presented in the form of charts [75][76][81]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Cost and profit data of different methanol production methods, as well as profit data of downstream products, are presented in the form of seasonal charts [87][89][107]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Data on the weekly production, output, and operating rates of methanol and its downstream products are presented in the form of charts [91][95][101]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - Import volume data of methanol from different countries, external market structure, import profit, and price difference data are presented in the form of charts [129][130]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - Data on the overseas production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are presented in the form of charts [132][133]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the supply, demand, and inventory changes of methanol in ports from January 2025 to May 2026 [136].

Market Overview - Methanol futures experienced weak fluctuations before the Spring Festival, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East easing, leading the market to return to fundamental trading. The last trading day before the holiday saw the main contract close at 2188 CNY/ton, the lowest since late January [5][27] - Following the holiday, methanol futures opened higher, gaining over 3% in early trading, recovering losses from the previous week [5][27] Supply Side - Domestic methanol production remained high, with January output at 9.0024 million tons, a decrease of 66,800 tons from December but still the second-highest in recent years. February production is expected to reach a new historical high [8][29] - As of February 20, domestic methanol capacity utilization was 92.75%, up 0.68 percentage points month-on-month and 3.63 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly production at 2.072 million tons, an increase of 15,200 tons [8][29] - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization increased slightly to 51.24%, but remained below the same period last year by 7.24 percentage points. Weekly production was 747,500 tons, an increase of 72,700 tons month-on-month but a decrease of 82,700 tons year-on-year [10][31] Demand Side - Demand remains weak as the market enters a seasonal lull, with downstream procurement cautious. MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) demand has seen a slight recovery but overall remains weak, with capacity utilization at 84.08%, up 1.34 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.07 percentage points year-on-year [11][32] - The impact of the Spring Festival has led to a general decline in operating rates across various downstream industries, significantly reducing methanol demand [14][33] Inventory - Overall social inventory of methanol remains high, with 1.7726 million tons reported as of February 13, a slight decrease of 7400 tons week-on-week but an increase of 303,100 tons year-on-year [16][37] - Port inventory reached 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons week-on-week and 462,700 tons year-on-year, indicating ongoing accumulation due to slow downstream recovery [17][38] Cost Side - Coal-based and natural gas-based methanol production facilities are currently operating at a loss, while coke oven gas facilities are slightly profitable. Domestic thermal coal prices have risen due to reduced output from Indonesia, which has tightened supply in the Asia-Pacific region [19][40] - The average temperature across most regions during the Spring Festival was higher than usual, leading to reduced electricity demand and further impacting coal consumption [19][40] Macroeconomic Factors - International crude oil prices have shown a trend of rising volatility, with WTI crude increasing from $60.65 per barrel on February 13 to $66.29 on February 23, driven by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical tensions [21][42] - The rise in crude oil prices has positively influenced the chemical sector, with methanol prices also experiencing upward pressure due to overall market sentiment [21][42] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have heightened market risk preferences, contributing to a rebound in methanol prices. Domestic supply remains ample, while overseas supply is constrained [23][43] - The uncertainty surrounding Iran's production and export capabilities continues to support methanol prices, although any easing of tensions could lead to price corrections [10][31][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has a small increase, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions, and the overall overseas market is at a low operating level. The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Considering the overall situation, although the coal price is weakly fluctuating and the domestic supply is loose, the unstable Middle - East situation and the strong operation of domestic chemical products provide strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply**: The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous domestic supply. The US dollar price has a small increase, most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, the non - Iranian operating rate has dropped, and the overall overseas operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 120 tons, and the import volume in February is expected to be revised up to around 80 tons. The coal price is weakly fluctuating, and the domestic supply is loose [4]. - **Demand**: The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly, with multiple large - scale MTO devices shut down or operating at a low load. The inland MTO operating rate is stable, and some CTOs make external purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased due to the reduction of imported arrivals caused by navigation closures, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter market: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of January 22, the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 77.41%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 88.44%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol is 70.91%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From January 10 - 16, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) production is 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate is 59.41%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week. The Petronas No. 2 device has restarted, and the Indonesian device is under maintenance [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From January 15 - 21, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 28.49 tons, including 26.35 tons of foreign vessels and 2.14 tons of domestic vessels (1.41 tons in Jiangsu and 0.73 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 44.38%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 85.15%, with the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO device remaining shut down and the load of some enterprises continuing to decrease [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is 5.25%, a month - on - month increase of 40.37%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is 80.67%, and the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.51% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 6.27 tons, an increase of 1.63 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 35.13% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory is 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of January 21, 2026, the total methanol port inventory is 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has decreased by 1.36 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 3.58 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The chemical coal in the northwest region is stable, the inland methanol auction price is weak, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and the profit in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 330 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang is 2,260 yuan/ton (+30), and the price in the north line is 1,770 yuan/ton (-50) [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MTO industry's weekly average operating rate continued to decline this week, and there is an expectation that the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate will still decrease after the offset of the expected shutdown of the Sierbang MTO unit and the planned restart of the Ningbo Fude MTO unit. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2260 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was - 19 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 817,171 lots, a decrease of 31,791 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 124,400 lots, an increase of 45,132 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,675, a decrease of 400 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 262 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 60 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 5.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 1.15 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 11.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.16 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 3.74%, an increase of 0.78% [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 956 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.76%, a decrease of 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.46%, a decrease of 1.32% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 20.57%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 20.56%, an increase of 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2]. - As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. There was a slight accumulation of methanol port inventory this week, with 19.80 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading, and there were still two vessels being unloaded that were not included [2]. - As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO unit of Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down, and the load of some enterprises continued to decrease [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, and the weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm. The inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2172 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 27 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 797,941 lots, down 57,443 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 110,375 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,748, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest spread is 220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 37 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 248 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 252 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons. The methanol import profit is 3.14 yuan/ton, down 2.05 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.52%, up 0.71%. [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.58%, up 1.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.09%, down 1.89%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.51%, up 2.62%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, down 0.85%; the olefin operating rate is 89.51%, down 0.44%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1038 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.78%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.81%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.07%, up 0.3% [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 40.40 tons, up 1.28 tons, a 3.28% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 19.36 tons, down 2.68 tons, a 12.16% decrease. The total methanol port inventory is 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons. The inventory in East China has increased, and in South China, it has decreased [2]. - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 89.49%, a 0.71% decrease. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continue to be shut down, and the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry has decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The coal demand has weakened, leading to a decline in coal prices. However, the domestic methanol auction prices remain firm, and the coal - to - methanol profit is stable at a high level. After the autumn maintenance, the domestic methanol supply is abundant. The international methanol device operating rate is stable, with most devices in Iran restarted, and imports are gradually recovering. As the arrival volume increases, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly. With stable downstream demand and general port demand, methanol should be shorted at high prices but not chased when shorting [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Analysis of raw coal**: As of September 10, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions have rebounded, with daily coal production around 4 million tons. The demand has weakened, and the pit - mouth price continues to decline [4] - **Supply situation**: The price of raw coal has fallen, but the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. The domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price of imported methanol has dropped, and the import parity is stable. The operating rate of overseas devices is high, and the import volume in September is expected to reach 1.4 billion tons [4] - **Demand situation**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4] - **Inventory situation**: The port inventory has increased significantly due to more imports, and the basis is weakly stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4] - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. In the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 66.54%, a decrease of 3.10 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From August 30, 2025, to September 5, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol production was 1,090,107 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a 0.21% increase from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 10, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 457,100 tons during the cycle [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.69%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 82.66%, with a slight decline [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have different changes. The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 19.10% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 940 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of September 10, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,280 (+30), and the price in the north line is 2,100 (+60) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The开工率 of coal mines is stable. As of December 6, the开工 rate of coal mines in Ordos is 76%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The coal production in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons per day, but the demand is declining, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply of methanol is continuously abundant. The US dollar price is stable, the Iranian point reduction is decreasing, and the import parity is stable. Most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, while the non - Iranian plants' operating rate is increasing. The import volume in January is expected to reach about 1.25 million tons. The MTO device operating rate has slightly increased. The port inventory has decreased, but the basis is still weak, and the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device operating rate has declined, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the methanol market continues to be in an oscillatory state. The trading strategies are to gradually build long positions for 05 contracts on dips, hang on to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The raw coal situation shows stable coal mine operation, with the recovery of production in Ordos and Yulin. However, demand is weak, causing coal prices to fall. The supply of methanol is abundant, with stable profits from coal - to - methanol production and high - level domestic operation. The import situation is affected by Iranian gas restrictions and non - Iranian supply adjustments. The demand from MTO devices shows a slight increase. The inventory situation includes a decrease in port inventory and narrow fluctuations in inland enterprise inventory. The overall market is oscillatory, and the trading strategies are proposed as mentioned above [3][4]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of December 4, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 76.19%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 86.48%, up 0.55 percentage points from last week and 1.44 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants is 68.26%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production is 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 376,000 tons, including 354,700 tons of foreign vessels and 21,300 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 87.48%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 91.78% [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged from last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, with some plants restarting or having load adjustments. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, with some small - scale device adjustments [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 84,500 tons, up 33,500 tons (33,500 tons) from the previous statistical date, a 65.69% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 361,500 tons, down 12,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 239,700 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of December 3, 2025, the total port inventory is 1.3494 million tons, down 14,100 tons from the previous period, with a 1,300 - ton increase in East China and a 15,400 - ton decrease in South China [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has risen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 80 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is - 130 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang is 2080 (+90), and the price in the north line is 1990 (+30) [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should continue to monitor the progress of winter inspections of Iranian methanol plants. Although some Iranian plants have shut down, the shipping volume in November exceeded 1 million tons, so there is still significant inventory pressure at ports in December, and the current situation remains weak [3]. - In the domestic market, there are both new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Among traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid and formaldehyde have low operating rates, while only MTBE has a relatively high operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [6][27][28]. 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is presented through charts [6][35][36]. 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts showing regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280, East China and Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang and Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][55]. 3.6 Market News and Key Data Domestic Market - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 583 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of methanol in different domestic regions have different changes, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The inventory and pending order volumes of domestic factories also show different trends, with inventory decreasing and pending orders increasing [1]. Port Market - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2060 yuan/ton (+7 yuan), and CFR China is 238 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars). Port inventory has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO has increased slightly [2]. Regional Price Differences - There are various changes in regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280 increasing by 15 yuan/ton, and the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 increasing by 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Market Analysis - At ports, the market is waiting for further progress of winter inspections of Iranian plants. Although some plants have shut down, the high shipping volume in November leads to high inventory pressure in December. In the domestic market, there are new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and traditional downstream sectors have different operating rates [3]. 3.8 Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [4]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].