业负荷仍有降低，但青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启，行业开工率存提升预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2250-2 甲醇产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2293 | 78 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 53 | 10 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 824536 | 50952 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -128251 | -21279 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8205 | 1557 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2250 | 40 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1847.5 | -10 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 362.5 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -43 | -38 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 5 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 320 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Although the overall supply is relatively abundant and demand changes are limited, the methanol futures market may operate strongly due to expected supply reduction and downstream stocking expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - **Futures**: Last week, influenced by improved expectations, methanol futures showed a strong oscillation. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,160 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous week [5][11]. - **Spot**: Last week, the port methanol price was still strong, while the inland methanol price was weak, showing a regional differentiation trend. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,090 - 2,130 yuan/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, domestic methanol production continued to rise as more plants resumed production than were under maintenance. The supply - side support remained weak [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream olefin operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall downstream demand was stable but weak. The demand in the inland area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises rose, and the volume of pending orders decreased. The port methanol inventory increased significantly, with a large increase in Jiangsu [7][19][21]. - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices stopped falling, while methanol prices were still weak, and the profits of coal - to - methanol enterprises deteriorated again [7][24]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Around New Year's Day, methanol supply will remain relatively abundant. In the future, domestic and foreign methanol maintenance may increase, imports may decline, and the supply is expected to decrease [8]. - **Demand**: The change in demand is limited. Downstream enterprises have stocking expectations, and macro - policies may be introduced [8]. - **Market Trend**: The spot market may be narrowly sorted, while the futures market may operate strongly [8]. 3.4 Operation Strategy Considering the positive expectations, methanol futures may operate strongly, and investors can consider selling put options [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Wednesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The intraday price center shifted significantly up to around 15,650 yuan/ton, closing up 2.42% at 15,650 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke out of the triangular range and formed an upward breakthrough pattern [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,179 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,143 yuan/ton, closing up 0.88% at 2,172 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 38 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started an oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 444.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 439.7 yuan/barrel, closing up 0.68% at 444.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become prominent again, and the conflict between the United States and Venezuela has escalated, posing risks to the export of Venezuelan crude oil. The strengthening of geopolitical premiums has driven the oil price to rebound, and crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%. The general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week-on-week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week-on-week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises during the week drove the capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week. Currently, the shipment rhythms of enterprises vary, with most enterprises having slow shipments. Under production and sales pressure, enterprises will continue flexible production control. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, it is not ruled out that individual enterprises will conduct maintenance or reduce production [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month-on-month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year-on-year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, China's heavy truck market has sold more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.57%, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a small increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03%. In the case of dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 8.68%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week-on-week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 82.06%, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was -205 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month-on-month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a significant week-on-week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32,500 tons, and a small increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 406, a week-on-week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.843 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year-on-year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant year-on-year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 20.862 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 412.2 million barrels, a week-on-week increase of 249,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 94.8%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a small year-on-year increase of 3.0 percentage points [14]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non-commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,433 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. On the other hand, as of December 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 40,988 contracts, a significant week-on-week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | -550 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,172 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | -6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.2 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 444.7 yuan/barrel | +3.8 yuan/barrel | -36.5 yuan/barrel | -4.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1-5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all-steel tire operating rate trend, and semi-steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][21][22][24]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1-5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefins operating rate change, and coal-to-methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the methanol industry is a narrow - range fluctuation [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central price of methanol is expected to be slightly higher than that in Q4 2025 but not reach the level of H1 2025, showing seasonal fluctuations. One can focus on the low - buying opportunities in the 03 and 05 contracts [2] - In 2025, the methanol industry had significant differentiation in various aspects. In 2026, the supply is affected by overseas factors, the cost is supported by coal price increase, the demand growth may slow down, and the inventory will show seasonal fluctuations [103][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (2024.12 - 2025.12) - In Dec 2024, methanol prices rose from 2,500 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton due to Iranian methanol plant shutdowns and reduced imports [6] - From Jan - Feb 2025, downstream MTO profit was eroded, ports started to accumulate inventory, and port prices declined while inland prices rose [6] - In Mar 2025, the arbitrage window closed, and the market oscillated due to the restart of plants [6] - In Apr 2025, methanol prices dropped significantly due to the Sino - US tariff war and expected overseas supply recovery [6] - From May - Dec 2025, prices were affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, geopolitical conflicts, plant maintenance, and inventory changes [7][8] 2. Supply Side 2.1 Capacity - China's methanol production capacity accounts for 58% of the global total, approaching 103 million tons/year in 2025. The new production capacity in 2025 is 8.2 million tons/year, and the national production capacity will reach 108 million tons/year with a 4.8% year - on - year increase [10][11] - In 2026, the new production capacity is expected to be 8.93 million tons/year, with a growth rate of about 5%. The future 5 - year capacity growth rate is expected to decline [11] 2.2 Domestic Production and Operating Rate - As of early December 2025, the domestic methanol production was 95.3 million tons, and the annual production is expected to reach 100 million tons, a nearly 10% year - on - year increase [19] - The operating rate is expected to be close to 90% in 2025, showing a significant upward trend for two consecutive years [22] 2.3 Overseas Production - Overseas methanol capacity growth rate is greater than demand growth rate, and it is in a state of relative over - supply. In 2025, the overseas capacity is about 77.75 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 4.5%, and it is expected to be 4.2% in 2026 [25] - In the next 3 years, there will be about 6.75 million tons/year of new overseas production capacity [25] 2.4 Imports - Iranian methanol (including Iran, Oman, and the UAE) accounts for about 50% of China's methanol imports, significantly affecting China's imports. In 2025, imports were affected by the Iran - Israel conflict, with a decline in June - July and a new high after August [30][31] - Non - Iranian imports increased in the second half of 2025, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the Americas. In the next 2 - 3 years, China's imports are expected to continue growing [31][32] 3. Cost Side 3.1 Coal in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, coal prices declined due to strong supply and weak demand, with inventory accumulation. In the second half, prices rebounded due to supply tightening and demand improvement [36][40] 3.2 Coal Outlook in 2026 - Supply growth is under pressure due to limited capacity increment, strict policy control, complex mining conditions, and limited import growth [48][50] - Demand has growth potential, with electricity demand remaining stable and non - electricity demand expected to improve [50] - Coal prices are expected to have a steadily rising central price and fluctuate within a range [50] 4. Demand Side 4.1 MTO - In 2025, three integrated MTO plants were put into operation. The MTO industry's profit first decreased and then increased, with the operating rate fluctuating between 80% - 90% and an 18% year - on - year increase in production [52][57] - In 2026, multiple MTO plants are planned to be put into operation, bringing new demand for methanol. However, due to over - capacity in the polyolefin industry, MTO's profit will be under pressure [62][65] 4.2 Traditional Downstream - In 2025, traditional downstream industries showed a "differentiated operation and profit - pressured" pattern. MTBE performed best, while acetic acid's growth slowed, formaldehyde's profit was thin, and dimethyl ether shrank [69][71] - In 2026, new capacity will continue to be put into operation, but profit and operating rate will be under pressure, and the demand for methanol will have limited elasticity [84][86] 5. Profit Side - In 2025, the profitability of coal - based methanol was high in the first half and declined in the second half. Gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol had weak profitability throughout the year [87] - In 2026, the cost side may strengthen, and the methanol industry's profit will be restricted by downstream demand, import pressure, and high inventory [93][95] 6. Inventory Side - In 2025, inland methanol inventory was at a relatively low level, while port inventory was at a historical high, first decreasing and then increasing [96] - In 2026, inventory is expected to first decrease and then increase, with the port inventory change mainly driven by overseas supply fluctuations. Inland inventory is expected to remain low [101][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a volatile rebound. The port fundamentals have improved due to the continuous reduction of port inventories caused by slow vessel unloading. The macro situation may also drive methanol to follow a volatile rebound, but the upside is limited due to fundamental valuation constraints [2][4]. - The MTO fundamentals are currently weak, with production profits being continuously compressed. The range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol, with the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton [4]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, methanol is expected to have a volatile rebound, with the 05 contract having an upper resistance at 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton and a lower support at 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 calendar spread has peaked and is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term. The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply** - From December 12 - 18, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,055,975 tons, an increase of 18,370 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0667 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.00%, higher than the current period [4]. - Regarding olefins, the Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continued to be shut down, leading to a decline in the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry [4]. - For traditional downstream industries, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 7.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 21.05%. The overall capacity utilization rate of acetic acid increased despite frequent breakdowns, and the overall capacity utilization rate of methane chloride increased. The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.58%, with the overall capacity utilization rate decreasing compared to the previous week [4]. - **Demand** - The operating rate of some downstream industries has changed. For example, the MTO industry's operating rate decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of some traditional downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and formaldehyde also decreased, while that of acetic acid and methane chloride increased [4]. - **Inventory** - As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25% [4]. - As of December 17, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%. The port inventory decreased slightly, with the East China mainstream social warehouse having good提货, and the Zhejiang olefin plant's shutdown for maintenance affecting consumption. The South China port inventory increased slightly [4]. Price and Spread - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts of methanol, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply - **Production and Operating Rate** - Charts show the production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and the northwest region, as well as the production of methanol by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, natural gas) from 2018 to 2025 [24][26]. - The capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (northwest, southwest, east, central) are presented [29]. - **Import - Related** - Charts display the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [33][34][35]. - **Cost and Profit** - The production costs of methanol by different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, coal - based in Shandong, natural gas - based in Chongqing) are shown from 2020 to 2025 [38][39][40]. - The production profits of methanol by different processes (coal - based in Shandong, natural gas - based in Chongqing, coke oven gas - based in Hebei) are also presented [43][44][45]. Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate** - The capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE are shown from 2020 to 2025 [48][49][50]. - **Downstream Profit** - The production profits of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins in the East China region and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE in Shandong, and acetic acid in Jiangsu are presented from 2020 to 2025 [55][59][61]. - **Procurement Volume** - The procurement volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in different regions (China, East China, northwest, central) and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions (China, north, east, southwest) are shown from 2020 to 2025 [63][68][70]. - **Raw Material Inventory** - The raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in different regions (China, northwest, Shandong, south) are presented from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][75]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory** - Charts show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China, the East China region, the northwest region, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2025 [78][79][80]. - **Port Inventory** - The weekly port inventories of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are presented from 2018 to 2025 [84][85][86].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Rubber - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,210 yuan/ton, closing down 0.46% to 15,210 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,140 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,115 yuan/ton, closing down 0.79% to 2,128 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 86 yuan/ton. As the supply - demand outlook for methanol shows an improving trend, methanol futures prices are expected to see a valuation repair in the future [7]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price rose to a maximum of 452.8 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 444.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/barrel. The oversupply situation is pitted against the seasonal recovery in demand. Coupled with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil is weakening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points week - on - week but an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, mainly because of insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment upgrades in some sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover next week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [11]. - In November 2025, China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the auto circulation industry [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 6% from October this year but a significant increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight decrease of 0.17% week - on - week, a small increase of 1.06% month - on - month, and a small increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a small increase of 38,100 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 70,700 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight increase of 0.05% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.96% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a small increase of 2.89% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a small increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight increase of 0.85 percentage points week - on - week but a small decrease of 3.78% month - on - month. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 7 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a small decrease of 35,100 tons week - on - week, a small decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month, but a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a small increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 13,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 419, a small increase of 2 rigs week - on - week but a decrease of 60 rigs compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a small decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week - on - week but a significant increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year, remaining at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant increase of 2.774 million barrels week - on - week but a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.753 million barrels, a small decrease of 68,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a small increase of 498,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a small increase of 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, a small recovery of 5.7 percentage points month - on - month, and a small increase of 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 60,991 contracts, a significant decrease of 13,318 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 125,587 contracts, a significant decrease of 52,240 contracts week - on - week but a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,210 yuan/ton | -150 yuan/ton | -360 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,135 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | 2,128 yuan/ton | -4 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | -1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.1 yuan/barrel | -0.2 yuan/barrel | 448.1 yuan/barrel | -5.7 yuan/barrel | -31.0 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (including methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change) [17][30][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended to consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily leaving the market for methanol long positions [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol port inventory decreased significantly, and the methanol futures and spot prices strengthened simultaneously. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price reached 2,163 yuan/ton, a 6.24% increase from the previous week. The port methanol market price stopped falling and trended stronger, and the inland methanol price also increased [6][14] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - Last week (20251121 - 1127), China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [15] 3.2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average start - up of the olefin industry increased slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased by 38.49% from the previous week; the load of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [19][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 373,700 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous period, and the order backlog was 230,700 tons, a 6.34% decrease from the previous period. The methanol port sample inventory was 1,363,500 tons, a 7.83% decrease from the previous period [21][26] 3.2.4 Profit - Last week (20251121 - 1127), the theoretical profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises was still weak overall. The profits from coal - based and natural - gas - based production were still weak, while that from coke - oven - gas - based production improved slightly [29] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook 3.3.1 Supply - This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may exceed that of the overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.27%, an increase from last week [34] 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The weekly average start - up of olefins is expected to continue to increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase slightly; and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise [37][38] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 374,900 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The port inventory is expected to increase, but the specific inventory trend still depends on the unloading and picking - up speeds [38] - Overall, the methanol supply and demand remain loose, and there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals. The subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [38]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report, dated November 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Methanol futures continue to decline. With increased international production, improved imports, and high domestic supply, combined with stable downstream demand and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the high - inventory situation and the approaching Iranian gas - restriction season, methanol is likely to continue its downward trend [2][4] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market - The futures price closed at 2029, down 52 or 2.5% [2] Spot Market - Production areas: Inner Mongolia South Line at 1960 yuan/ton, North Line at 1940 yuan/ton; Guanzhong at 1880 yuan/ton, Yulin at 1900 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 1980 yuan/ton, Henan at 2020 yuan/ton [2] - Consumption areas: Southern Shandong at 2100 yuan/ton, Northern Shandong at 2150 yuan/ton, Hebei at 2080 yuan/ton; Southwest: Sichuan - Chongqing at 1980 yuan/ton, Yunnan - Guizhou at 2040 yuan/ton [2] - Ports: Taicang at 2000 yuan/ton, Ningbo at 2000 yuan/ton, Guangzhou at 1990 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Important Information - In the week from November 8 - 14, 2025, international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,072,505 tons, an increase of 21,896 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 73.52%, up 1.50% [3] Group 6: Logic Analysis Supply - Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample supply [4] Import - US dollar prices are falling rapidly, the import premium is widening. Iranian plants are all operating normally, non - Iranian operation rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operation rate has returned to a high level. The price difference between China and Europe has decreased, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 690,000 tons in November, and non - Iranian supplies are abundant [4] Demand - The MTO plant operation rate has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others have sub - full loads [4] Inventory - Port arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; inland enterprise inventory has narrow fluctuations. However, with increased arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 8: Related Charts - Charts show historical data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and various plant operation rates from 2021 - 2025 [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The downstream performance of methanol is not strong during the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. With the MTO economy being squeezed and some devices at risk of shutting down in November, and the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 46 yuan to 2156 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 33 yuan to 2157 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 20,369 lots to 783,800 lots, and short positions increased by 17,233 lots to 1,034,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.7%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period; the overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, while that in South China increased by 2.40 million tons. The inventory of Chinese sample methanol production enterprises is 37.61 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons, a 4.36% increase from the previous period [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 21.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 91.2%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.8%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 69.7%, a 3.2% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.4%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 40.2%, a 2% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 67.9%, a 0.1% increase from the previous period [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, meeting market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The downstream of methanol shows a weak performance in the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. The import volume in September was 142.69 million tons, a 18.9% decrease from the previous period. The MTO economy is squeezed, and some devices may shut down in November. With the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1]