1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science - innovation policy support, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 have defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][12] - The market for crude oil is affected by factors such as trade agreements and OPEC's production decisions. The organization may fully restore the additional voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September [4][14] - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. For example, the prices of glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion, and their market performance is related to the "anti - involution" policy and fundamental repair [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment for infrastructure and defense [6] 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Party Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, protecting their land rights, and promoting urban - rural integration development with the county as the focus [7] 3.1.3 Industry News - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and dumping below cost [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas financial products on July 25 and July 28, such as the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and ICE Brent crude oil [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a volatile rebound. The defense and military industry sector led the rise, and the coal sector adjusted. The trading volume reached 1.77 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, which is conducive to reducing market volatility [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.715%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the tightness of the capital market eased. Due to policy expectations and market sentiment, the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices will increase [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.06% at night. The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement. OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting on August 3 to decide the production level in September [4][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.23% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventory continued to rise, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways at night. The spot market was stable. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the supply - demand relationship [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. They are in the process of inventory digestion. The market sentiment was affected by policy expectations and fundamental repair [17] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. Supply - side factors supported the price, while the demand side was weak. The inventory in Qingdao continued to increase, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to decline [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices weakened continuously, and silver also corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the reduction of risk - aversion sentiment led to the decline. The long - term driving force for gold still exists, but the prices may fluctuate [19] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The low processing fees of concentrates and low copper prices test smelting production. The downstream demand is generally stable, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The processing fees of concentrates continued to rise. The market expects an improvement in supply, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi and then fell sharply. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise. The short - term core contradiction lies in warehouse receipts, and the medium - term upside is limited [22] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the profit - driven production of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The supply - demand imbalance pressure is large in the medium term, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [24] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The export of billets is strong. The market is affected by macro - expectations and raw material sentiment, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [25] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily hot metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills increased slightly. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range after the correction [3][26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal traded weakly. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was lower than expected, and the export prospects are uncertain. The price of soybean meal is expected to have limited downside [27] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats closed up at night. The fundamental data of Indonesia is positive, and the export of palm oil to the EU is expected to increase. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil are negative in the short term, but the price is expected to rise slowly in the long term [28] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 1.84%. The SCFIS European line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is showing signs of decline. The market is waiting to see the extent and slope of the freight rate correction [30]

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and closing flat. The price closed slightly up 0.00% at 14,810 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 195 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the supply pressure in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas increased, but domestic tire enterprises saw an increase in the motivation of operating rate. With both supply and demand increasing, the rubber price maintained a stable and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and slightly closing up. The price closed slightly up 0.09% at 2,239 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 74 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the improvement in the supply - demand structure of the methanol market was limited, the destocking of social inventory might be coming to an end, and the external supply was expected to increase. Considering the potential macro - risks, methanol maintained a weak pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rebounding from an oversold situation, and closing sharply up. The price closed sharply up 2.40% at 460.8 yuan/barrel. Although the US non - farm payroll data and price index showed signs of improvement, leading to an increase in the expected number of Fed rate cuts throughout the year, the US debt crisis in June was approaching, and the "gray rhino" effect might trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. At the same time, OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand was expected to be weak. With bearish factors dominant, the continued rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices was expected to face greater pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat trend. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons, and a significant increase of 210,100 tons compared with 1.6889 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 29.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 7.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 85.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.09%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.63%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 239 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 87 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 572 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 123,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China totaled 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons or 0.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 35,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 55,600 tons compared with 365,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12][14]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 483, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 23 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.36 million barrels per day. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels and a significant decrease of 10.521 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 25.019 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 397.5 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 468,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Since April 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend, and the market's long - buying power has continued to decline. As of April 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 177,209 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 6,254 contracts and a significant increase of 10,622 contracts or 6.38% compared with the March average of 166,587 contracts. At the same time, as of April 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 106,722 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,080 contracts and a significant decrease of 79,918 contracts or 42.82% compared with the March average of 186,640 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,460 yuan/ton | -32 yuan/ton | 2,239 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | +221 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.8 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | -37.2 yuan/barrel | -1.9 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22][25][27][29]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term rebound [15] - **Gold**: Short - term market volatility increases, and the risk of correction after a rapid rise increases [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Fed officials' attitude change repairs short - term market sentiment, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [20] - **Stock Index Futures**: Wait for the Politburo meeting in April to set the future policy direction [25] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: After a sharp short - term decline, market sentiment is released. The near - month contract has weak performance in delivery games, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [27] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices remain volatile for the time being. Soybean meal spot is strong in the short term but is expected to decline gradually in May [31] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [34] - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of the external market in Q2 2025. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the Brazilian crushing production [39] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Long the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term. The 5 - 7 spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities [42] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious with light positions and pay attention to spot rebound hedging opportunities [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: Pay attention to the PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spread opportunities [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Partially stop profit on previous short positions. Do not go long on the left side. Consider going long on the right side after clear signals appear [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Adopt a bearish approach and pay attention to shorting opportunities at the upper edge of the range [51] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. Adopt a band - trading strategy and pay attention to the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage strategy [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Hold previous long positions. Investors without positions should wait and see and pay attention to position management [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Wait and see in the short term. Hold previous long positions and wait for high - selling opportunities. Hold the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Pay attention to the mid - line rebound shorting opportunities near the moving average. Adopt the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage strategy in the mid - line [67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [71] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: The futures price is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the implementation of the industry's joint production reduction [77] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The rebound of caustic soda spot weakens, and the futures price falls. Pay attention to macro - impacts [79] - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The short - term market is dominated by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [81] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on commodity demand and domestic stimulus policies [82] - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: CEA prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [85] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87] 2. Core Views - Trump changed his stance on firing Powell in advance, hoping that the Fed would cut interest rates quickly. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded [14]. - Spot gold prices fell after rising to $3500. Market speculative fever cooled down. Trump's statement of not firing Powell led to a rebound in overseas market risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. In the Chinese stock market, on April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the market rose slightly with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [3]. - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market was sensitive to overseas trade risks and was in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality [4]. - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. The polysilicon contract valuation is low, and positive spread opportunities can be关注 [5]. - US API crude oil inventory data affected the market, and oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the US economy is in good shape, but there are concerns about corporate investment and consumer spending [12]. - The US, Ukraine, and European allies will hold talks on a peace plan. Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell and hopes for faster interest - rate cuts. Market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar index rebounded [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said the cryptocurrency industry needs clear regulatory policies. Spot gold prices fell after reaching a high. The end of the market driven by end - of - the - world options and Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. US officials signaled a relaxation of tariff policies, and Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell. Market sentiment improved in the short term, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple regions in China are planning to introduce a new round of stimulus policies. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. On April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is weak. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but further increases are difficult. The supply of coke is relatively high, and inventories are decreasing. The coking coal market is under pressure, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ADM will close a soybean processing plant in South Carolina. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of April were 9423 million tons. The domestic soybean meal spot is in short supply, and futures prices remain volatile [28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20 increased by 3.64% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of April 19 was 92.5%. The oil market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India plans to increase sugarcane production by 7% in the next three years. Pakistan's sugar exports in the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season increased significantly. A sugar factory in Guangxi cleared its inventory ahead of schedule. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in Q2 2025 [35][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable. Due to high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the market is in a stalemate. After the export restriction policy was lifted, starch exports increased, and the futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is rising. The average national corn price on April 21 was 2198.33 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [41][42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. India imposed a 12% temporary safeguard tax on flat steel products. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market is in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality. It is recommended to be cautious with light positions [43][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. It is expected that polysilicon production will increase in May, and inventory will decrease. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In March, the export of silicone increased significantly. The price of industrial silicon has fallen below the cash cost line. Some manufacturers plan to reduce production. It is recommended to partially stop profit on previous short positions and wait for clear signals to go long [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine in Inner Mongolia obtained a mining license. Some salt factories are undergoing maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, the decline in ore prices makes it difficult for prices to rebound. Adopt a bearish approach [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A copper mine project in Zambia was approved for mining, and a company in Yingtan plans to expand its recycled copper project. Macro - factors are less negative for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. Consider a band - trading strategy and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April, which decreased. Stainless steel mills are reducing production. The price of nickel is expected to repair its valuation. Hold previous long positions and wait and see for investors without positions [55][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead refineries in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. The supply of lead may decline earlier than demand. Short - term tightness is possible. It is recommended to wait and see and hold previous long positions [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc - mining companies' production in Q1 2025 decreased. The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with demand being weaker. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [63][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased. The US announced new sanctions on Iran. Oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news and are expected to range - bound [68][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In March 2025, urea imports decreased, and exports increased. The futures price of urea is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [72][74]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, with some slight decreases. The polyester raw material market is weak. The supply of bottle chips may increase under high - capacity operation. Pay attention to the implementation of industry - wide production reduction [75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On April 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was good. The futures price of caustic soda fell. Pay attention to macro - impacts [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp weakened. The futures price of pulp was affected by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [82]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration released the "China Green Power Certificate Development Report (2024)". The CEA price is under pressure due to a large supply surplus. It is expected to continue to decline in the short term [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On April 22, the soda ash market in Shahe adjusted weakly. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is not strong. Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On April 22, the price of float glass in Shahe was stable. The glass futures price fluctuated slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - **Asphalt**: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - **Lead**: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - **Plastics and Fibers** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - **Meat and Eggs** - **Pork**: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - **Bond**: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].