截至2026年1月9日美元兑加元呈现偏强震荡态势，盘中报1.3868，较前一交易日上涨0.0007，涨幅 0.0505%，当日最高触及1.3872，最低下探1.3859，波动幅度温和。这一走势延续了近期的上行格局， 背后是美加央行政策分化、原油供应预期变化及经济增长差异等多重因素的共同作用，市场后续聚焦政 策路径与能源市场动态的边际变化。 货币政策分化是主导汇率走势的核心逻辑。回顾2025年，美加央行政策节奏差异显著：美联储全年累计 降息75个基点，年末联邦基金利率区间降至3.5%-3.75%，市场普遍预期2026年将再降息两次，而官方预 测仅为一次，预期差持续扰动市场。加拿大央行则更为激进，全年四次降息累计达100个基点，年末将 主要隔夜利率降至2.25%，并明确当前利率水平或在可预见未来维持不变，市场预期其2026年3月前不 会再降息，这种"美松加稳"的格局为美元兑加元提供支撑。 经济增长差异与原油供应预期则加剧汇率波动，形成"政策支撑"与"商品压制"的博弈。经合组织预测， 2025年美国GDP增速为1.6%，2026年将降至1.5%；加拿大GDP增速2025年为1%，2026年略升至1.1%， 两国均面 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价高位下调，跨年涨势快，外盘多头减仓锁盈。国内铜市关注基本面变动，上海铜贴水50 元、精废价差扩至6000元，等待本周社库。伦铜关注实值期权仓量变动。前期2602期权组合策略仍 可持有。 【铝】 隔夜有色整体回落。开年资金助推沪铝冲击历史高点后回落，未能创造历史新高，短期走势和基本 面背离，有色整体波动率高，投机保持谨慎。吨铝利润飙升至8000元附近，铝厂卖出保值考虑参 与。 综合晨报 2026年01月08日 (原油) 当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库格局，从EIA、 IEA、OPEC三大机构平衡表预估情况来看, 2026Q1全球原油市场面临较大累库压力。美委局势难为油价反弹提供持续性的基本面支撑，反而美 国对委内打击目标在于快速实现政权更迭后接管委内石油资源，若后续制裁放松、外资重新进入委 内石油基础设施,则委内石油产量及出口面临增加可能。综上,油价主基调仍为供需宽松主导的中 枢下行趋势。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业 PM154.4好于预期和前值，上期所调整白银期货交易 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Wednesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The intraday price center shifted significantly up to around 15,650 yuan/ton, closing up 2.42% at 15,650 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke out of the triangular range and formed an upward breakthrough pattern [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,179 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,143 yuan/ton, closing up 0.88% at 2,172 yuan/ton. The 1-5 month spread discount widened to 38 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started an oscillating and strengthening trend [6]. - On Wednesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 444.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 439.7 yuan/barrel, closing up 0.68% at 444.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become prominent again, and the conflict between the United States and Venezuela has escalated, posing risks to the export of Venezuelan crude oil. The strengthening of geopolitical premiums has driven the oil price to rebound, and crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%. The general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week-on-week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week-on-week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises during the week drove the capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week. Currently, the shipment rhythms of enterprises vary, with most enterprises having slow shipments. Under production and sales pressure, enterprises will continue flexible production control. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, it is not ruled out that individual enterprises will conduct maintenance or reduce production [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month-on-month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year-on-year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, China's heavy truck market has sold more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.57%, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a small increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03%. In the case of dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 8.68%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week-on-week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 82.06%, a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was -205 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month-on-month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a significant week-on-week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32,500 tons, and a small increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 406, a week-on-week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.843 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year-on-year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant year-on-year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 20.862 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 412.2 million barrels, a week-on-week increase of 249,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 94.8%, a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a small year-on-year increase of 3.0 percentage points [14]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non-commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,433 contracts, a significant week-on-week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. On the other hand, as of December 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 40,988 contracts, a significant week-on-week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | -550 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,172 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | -6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.2 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 444.7 yuan/barrel | +3.8 yuan/barrel | -36.5 yuan/barrel | -4.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1-5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all-steel tire operating rate trend, and semi-steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][21][22][24]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1-5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefins operating rate change, and coal-to-methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][52].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Saudi Aramco set the price of "Arab Light Crude" for Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021, due to global crude oil supply surplus pressure [2] - As of the week ending December 4, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week, and factory and social inventories decreased for the eighth consecutive week. Rebar production was 1.8931 million tons, a decrease of 167,700 tons or 8.14% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.1698 million tons, a decrease of 109,600 tons or 4.81% [2] - The CEO of Hapag - Lloyd said there is no specific timeline for the shipping industry to resume Suez Canal navigation. Any resumption will be gradual, with a 60 - 90 - day transition period to adjust logistics and avoid sudden port congestion. If the Suez Canal route re - opens in 2026, the industry will need several months to restart gradually [2] - From January to October 2025, global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, sales were 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In the US, sales from January to October were 1.4 million, a 10% increase. In October, US new energy vehicle sales were 93,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 51% due to high tariffs and the cancellation of new energy subsidies [2] - According to incomplete statistics from Fantang Technology, two more sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 44 sugar mills in the 2025/2026 crushing season in Guangxi have started production, 22 less than the same period last year, and the daily sugarcane crushing capacity is about 349,500 tons, a decrease of 193,500 tons year - on - year [3] 2. Key Attention - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] 3. Night - session Performance 3.1 Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.71% increase; precious metals had a 30.02% increase; oilseeds had an 8.83% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 24.59% increase; soft commodities had a 2.83% increase; coal, coke, and steel ore had a 12.12% increase; energy had a 2.82% increase; chemicals had a 10.86% increase; grains had a 1.47% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.75% increase [4] 3.2 Plate Position - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graph [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.06 | - 0.33 | 15.63 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 10.79 | | | CSI 300 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 15.54 | | | CSI 500 | 0.24 | - 0.27 | 22.48 | | | S&P 500 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 16.59 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.68 | 0.30 | 29.29 | | | German DAX | 0.87 | 0.26 | 20.04 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 27.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.19 | - 0.10 | 18.82 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.35 | - 0.25 | - 1.15 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.24 | - 0.14 | - 0.89 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.05 | - 0.01 | - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.55 | 0.81 | 2.43 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.27 | 2.23 | - 16.99 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.12 | - 0.25 | 60.35 | | | LME Copper | - 0.47 | 2.31 | 30.21 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.41 | 0.85 | 34.93 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.20 | - 0.38 | - 8.68 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 1.65 | - 7.32 | [6] 5. Main Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn through graphs, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graphs [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Rubber - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,210 yuan/ton, closing down 0.46% to 15,210 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,140 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,115 yuan/ton, closing down 0.79% to 2,128 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 86 yuan/ton. As the supply - demand outlook for methanol shows an improving trend, methanol futures prices are expected to see a valuation repair in the future [7]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price rose to a maximum of 452.8 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 444.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/barrel. The oversupply situation is pitted against the seasonal recovery in demand. Coupled with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil is weakening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points week - on - week but an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, mainly because of insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment upgrades in some sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover next week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [11]. - In November 2025, China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the auto circulation industry [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 6% from October this year but a significant increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight decrease of 0.17% week - on - week, a small increase of 1.06% month - on - month, and a small increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a small increase of 38,100 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 70,700 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight increase of 0.05% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.96% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a small increase of 2.89% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a small increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight increase of 0.85 percentage points week - on - week but a small decrease of 3.78% month - on - month. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 7 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a small decrease of 35,100 tons week - on - week, a small decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month, but a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a small increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 13,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 419, a small increase of 2 rigs week - on - week but a decrease of 60 rigs compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a small decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week - on - week but a significant increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year, remaining at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant increase of 2.774 million barrels week - on - week but a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.753 million barrels, a small decrease of 68,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a small increase of 498,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a small increase of 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, a small recovery of 5.7 percentage points month - on - month, and a small increase of 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 60,991 contracts, a significant decrease of 13,318 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 125,587 contracts, a significant decrease of 52,240 contracts week - on - week but a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,210 yuan/ton | -150 yuan/ton | -360 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,135 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | 2,128 yuan/ton | -4 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | -1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.1 yuan/barrel | -0.2 yuan/barrel | 448.1 yuan/barrel | -5.7 yuan/barrel | -31.0 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (including methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change) [17][30][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic indicators show mixed trends, with some signs of slowdown and others indicating growth potential. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly in Q3 2025, while export and import values increased year - on - year [1]. - The commodity market is influenced by various factors such as political events, supply - demand dynamics, and corporate strategies. Gold prices rose due to concerns about the US economy, and oil prices fell on fears of oversupply [4][9]. - The financial market is affected by central bank policies, government debt management, and international economic relations. The bond market continues to be volatile, and the stock market shows different performances in different regions [12][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, lower than the previous month and last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month but lower than last year [1]. - Social financing scale and money supply indicators showed different trends, with M1 growth accelerating and M2 growth slowing [1]. - CPI and PPI were both in negative territory in September 2025, indicating weak inflationary pressures [1]. - Fixed - asset investment decreased in September 2025, while social consumption and foreign trade showed growth [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6, and the composite PMI was 51.8, both slightly lower than the previous month [2]. - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and relaxation of export controls [2]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff policy, and a decision may be announced in December [2]. - On November 5, 2025, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis [3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on November 5, 2025, due to concerns about the US government shutdown and economic outlook [4]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China plans to open a precious metal warehouse at Hong Kong International Airport [5]. - Anhui Province released a draft plan for the high - quality development of the gold industry from 2025 - 2027 [5]. - London Metal Exchange inventory data on November 4 showed changes in tin, lead, zinc, and other metal inventories [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits and margin ratios for alumina futures contracts [7]. - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group won the exploration rights for a copper - gold - molybdenum mine [7]. - The EU will investigate the sale of a nickel mine business to China Minmetals [7]. Energy and Chemicals - On November 5, 2025, US and Brent crude oil futures fell due to concerns about oversupply and increased US crude oil production [9]. - Libya plans to increase oil and gas production and is in talks with Chevron and Egyptian companies [9]. - Poland is negotiating to import more US LNG for Ukraine and Slovakia [9]. - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arabian Light crude oil to Asia in December [9]. Agricultural Products - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade, and China hopes the US will create a favorable environment for cooperation [10]. - The pig industry is facing challenges such as low prices, overcapacity, and high debt, and industry self - regulation is needed [10][11]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [12]. Key News - China announced measures to implement the China - US economic and trade consultation consensus [13]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's tariff policy [13]. - China's October S&P services and composite PMIs decreased [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to high - quality development and opening - up [13]. - Chinese and US officials discussed agricultural trade cooperation [14]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks [14]. - China and Russia agreed to strengthen macro - economic policy coordination [14]. - The central bank's 10 - month bond - buying operation resumed but was lower than expected [15]. - The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department [16]. - The US Treasury announced its quarterly refinancing plan [17]. - Indonesia issued offshore RMB bonds in Hong Kong [17]. - Global bond sales reached a record high in 2025 [17]. - The US government shutdown continued, potentially affecting the economy [17]. - US ADP employment data was better than expected in October [18]. - There were various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, rating changes, and issuance cancellations [18][19]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market continued to fluctuate weakly, with limited impact from the central bank's bond - buying [20]. - Bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends, and interest rates in the money market had mixed changes [20][21]. - Yields of European and US bonds generally rose [24]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly, while the offshore RMB appreciated [25]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed different performances [25]. Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, and the bond market may shift from a duration strategy to a carry - trade strategy [26]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income expects the bond market to continue its recovery in Q4, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields likely to decline [27]. Today's Reminders - On November 6, 2025, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have their principal and interest repaid [28]. 4. Stock Market Key News - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with the energy storage and new energy sectors leading the gains [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell slightly, and the Southbound funds had a large net purchase [29][30].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science - innovation policy support, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 have defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][12] - The market for crude oil is affected by factors such as trade agreements and OPEC's production decisions. The organization may fully restore the additional voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September [4][14] - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. For example, the prices of glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion, and their market performance is related to the "anti - involution" policy and fundamental repair [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment for infrastructure and defense [6] 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Party Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, protecting their land rights, and promoting urban - rural integration development with the county as the focus [7] 3.1.3 Industry News - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and dumping below cost [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas financial products on July 25 and July 28, such as the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and ICE Brent crude oil [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a volatile rebound. The defense and military industry sector led the rise, and the coal sector adjusted. The trading volume reached 1.77 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, which is conducive to reducing market volatility [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.715%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the tightness of the capital market eased. Due to policy expectations and market sentiment, the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices will increase [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.06% at night. The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement. OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting on August 3 to decide the production level in September [4][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.23% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventory continued to rise, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways at night. The spot market was stable. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the supply - demand relationship [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. They are in the process of inventory digestion. The market sentiment was affected by policy expectations and fundamental repair [17] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. Supply - side factors supported the price, while the demand side was weak. The inventory in Qingdao continued to increase, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to decline [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices weakened continuously, and silver also corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the reduction of risk - aversion sentiment led to the decline. The long - term driving force for gold still exists, but the prices may fluctuate [19] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The low processing fees of concentrates and low copper prices test smelting production. The downstream demand is generally stable, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The processing fees of concentrates continued to rise. The market expects an improvement in supply, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi and then fell sharply. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise. The short - term core contradiction lies in warehouse receipts, and the medium - term upside is limited [22] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the profit - driven production of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The supply - demand imbalance pressure is large in the medium term, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [24] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The export of billets is strong. The market is affected by macro - expectations and raw material sentiment, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [25] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily hot metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills increased slightly. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range after the correction [3][26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal traded weakly. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was lower than expected, and the export prospects are uncertain. The price of soybean meal is expected to have limited downside [27] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats closed up at night. The fundamental data of Indonesia is positive, and the export of palm oil to the EU is expected to increase. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil are negative in the short term, but the price is expected to rise slowly in the long term [28] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 1.84%. The SCFIS European line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is showing signs of decline. The market is waiting to see the extent and slope of the freight rate correction [30]

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...