美元兑加元可能处于"楔形"模式的形成过程中。相对强弱指数(RSI)低于60，该动能指标也显示卖方压 力较大。上行方面，初步阻力位可关注1.3878附近，若能突破可能缓解短期下行压力；下行方面，重要 支撑则关注1.3758水平，若有效跌破该支撑，可能会确认下行趋势的延续，进一步目标看向1.3375下 方。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3856，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为1.3855。牛津经济研究 院经济学家迈克尔·达文波特表示，核心通胀率依然过于坚挺，加拿大央行官员难以放心降息。 7月份，由于加拿大取消了消费者碳税，能源价格下降，总体通胀率降至1.7%。然而，达文波特表示， 食品、住房和耐用品价格上涨抵消了这一影响，耐用品价格上涨可能反映了关税的影响。他补充说，该 公司预计，随着美加关税争端的成本逐渐转嫁到零售价格，总体通胀率和核心通胀率（目前仍高于 3%）在短期内都将缓慢上升。达文波特预计，加拿大央行将在9月17日维持其政策利率在2.75%不变。 ...

关于住宿税的用途，537个地方政府选择用于建设旅游设施，434个计划用于整体旅游推广，242个用于 保护历史景观和自然环境，228个拟改善外国游客接待环境。 秦天弘/经济参考报 据日本共同社报道，目前，日本不少地方政府已开始或计划向酒店和传统旅馆征收住宿税，以应对境外 游客激增带来的基础设施压力。 根据共同社8月24日发布的调查结果，日本42个地方政府已开始或计划征收住宿税，超过90个地方政府 正认真考虑开征这项税。报道称，这项调查覆盖全国1723个地方政府，回复率达96%。 日本地方政府征收住宿税需要获得中央政府批准。截至7月底，35个地方政府的征税计划已获批，其中 12个已开始征收，其余23个计划最晚于2026年开征。至少7个地方政府已完成对征税条例的制定，正计 划申请批准。 许多地区设定的税额为每人每晚约200日元（约合9.8元人民币），针对部分高档住宿设施的税额可达每 人每晚1000日元（约合48.8元人民币）或更高。 在尚未决定征收住宿税的地方政府中，728个表示"有兴趣"引入住宿税，506个表示"不感兴趣"，60个曾 考虑过但最终放弃，296个则以辖区缺乏可征税住宿设施等为由作"其他"回答。 不过 ...

传统宏观研究范式下，人口通常被视为"慢变量"。但"十五五"时期，我国人口老龄化将进入加速阶段，当人口周期 从"缓坡"走向"陡崖"，将会对宏观经济和政策产生显著影响，人口"灰犀牛"的影响将愈发不可忽视。 从全球人口趋势变化看，人口红利正在消失，老龄化趋势难以逆转。2024 年全球 65 岁及以上人口占比已经达到 10.2%， 按照国际通用的人口老龄化程度划分标准，目前全球已经步入轻度老龄化社会，而主要发达经济体均已处于中度或重 度老龄化社会。此外，全球总和生育率已下降至世代更替水平附近，发达经济体更是面临落入"低生育率陷阱"的风 险。 从人口转型的角度看，当前中国主要面临三个挑战：一是我国已进入加速老龄化时期，人口转型时间更短。根据联合 国《世界人口展望 2024》，中国 2032 年将正式步入重度老龄化社会，到 2035 年 65 岁以上人口占比将达到 22.8%。二 是少子化问题较为严峻。我国 2023 年我国总和生育率已降至 1.0 人，在全球主要经济体中仅略高于韩国。三是未富 先老将给总需求和社会保障体系带来压力。2024 年我国 65 岁以上人口达到 15.6%，接近日本 1997 年的老龄化水平， ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest PMI data supports the view that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October, contrary to expectations of a delay until early next year [1] Group 1: PMI Data Insights - Japan's composite PMI rose to 51.4, marking a four-month high [1] - Both manufacturing and services PMIs showed slight increases in June [1] - The manufacturing output index indicates a re-acceleration in industrial production, while new export orders suggest moderate sales growth [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The services PMI is significantly above historical averages, aligning with substantial growth in consumer spending [1] - Overall, there is a strong rationale for the Bank of Japan to consider an interest rate hike in October [1]

Group 1 - The persistent rise in oil prices may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, as it could weaken demand and impact the resilient labor market [1] - Historically, sudden spikes in oil prices have only temporarily increased inflation, and the Fed typically overlooks this; however, the current economic slowdown makes the threat to growth and employment more significant than the temporary inflation boost [1] - The market may take weeks to gain clarity on oil price trends, with baseline predictions suggesting the Fed may initiate rate cuts in December [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that prolonged conflicts and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially driving U.S. inflation back to around 6% [2] - Rising gasoline prices, which have been a key factor in the recent cooling of inflation, could reverse trends, leading to a delay in the Fed's first rate cut until early 2026 [2] - Higher energy costs may trigger a chain reaction in supply chains, causing prices of other goods and services to rise, potentially resulting in a stagflation scenario [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Town Economic Innovation Development Forum was held in Beijing, where the research results of "2025 China's High-Quality Development of Town Economy" were released, revealing the "2025 Town Economic Top 500 and Central and Western Top 100" [1] - A total of 14 towns from Sichuan entered the national top 500, ranking 8th among all provinces, with Mianyang having the highest number of towns at 8, including two new entries [1] - In the Western Top 100 list, Mianyang, Chengdu, Meishan, and Suining each had multiple towns listed, with Mianyang having 13 towns, an increase of one from last year [1] Group 2 - The development of town economies in Sichuan is on the rise, with Mianyang showing a competitive development trend, while other cities like Suining and Meishan also have significant potential [2] - Recommendations for high-quality development of town economies include creating a new ecosystem for industrial development, selecting a leading industry, nurturing a chain enterprise, building a core industrial park, and establishing supportive policies [2] - The strategy also emphasizes revitalizing land resources, promoting data sharing, facilitating technology integration, diversifying financing, and nurturing local talent [2]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 14,000 to 240,000, the highest level since April, indicating a potential rise in the unemployment rate this month [1][4] - The number of continuing jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 1.92 million, exceeding the expected median of 1.89 million, suggesting increasing layoffs and a weakening labor market [1][4] - The median duration of unemployment increased from 9.8 weeks in March to 10.4 weeks in April, indicating that many unemployed individuals are facing prolonged joblessness [4] Group 2 - Economists expect that due to seasonal adjustment difficulties, the number of unemployment claims in June may exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 [4][5] - Despite concerns about the labor market weakening, a survey indicated that 83% of CEOs anticipate a recession in the next 12-18 months, yet most do not expect significant layoffs [5] - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised to a 0.2% annualized decline, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction, highlighting economic challenges [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. President threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting June 1 due to stalled negotiations [1][4] - The U.S. demands unilateral concessions from the EU to open its market, while the EU seeks a mutually beneficial agreement [4] - EU officials emphasize that trade agreements should be based on mutual respect, not threats [4][8] Group 2 - The German Foreign Minister stated that the U.S. tariff threats are unhelpful and could negatively impact both economies [8] - French trade representatives suggest the EU needs to demonstrate countermeasures to establish a balance of power in negotiations [11] - Analysts believe that moving Apple's entire supply chain to the U.S. is unrealistic and would increase inflationary pressures [14] Group 3 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that the tariff policies could lead to distrust in U.S. assets and harm the economy [18] - The unpredictable tariff policies have caused significant volatility in global markets, affecting ordinary investors [21] - There are allegations of insider trading among U.S. politicians taking advantage of the tariff situation [21][25] Group 4 - Calls for a comprehensive and independent investigation into potential insider trading related to tariff policies have emerged [25] - Concerns have been raised about the ethical implications of politicians trading stocks while influencing market decisions [27]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's national debt is projected to reach a record high of 1,323.7155 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2024, reflecting a significant increase due to rising government expenditures amid inflation and insufficient tax revenue [1][2]. Group 1: National Debt and Budget - The total national debt, consisting of government bonds, loans, and short-term securities, has increased by 26.554 trillion yen compared to the end of the fiscal year 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of record highs [1]. - The Japanese Diet approved a budget of 115.1978 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, which is the highest in history [2]. Group 2: Defense Spending - The defense budget has risen to approximately 8.7 trillion yen, surpassing the previous year's record of 7.9496 trillion yen [3]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the prioritization of military spending over addressing the impact of rising living costs on citizens [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Data - The Cabinet Office has revised down the actual GDP growth for the fourth quarter of the previous year from 0.7% to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, and from 2.8% to 2.2% year-on-year [4]. - There are indications that Japan's economy may experience negative growth in the first quarter of this year, according to economic analysts [4].

Group 1 - The establishment of the Suzhou Digital and Real Economy Research Institute marks a significant outcome of the strategic cooperation between the Central Committee of the China Democratic League and the Suzhou Municipal Government [3] - The research institute aims to focus on the integration of digital and real economies, providing support for political consultation, empowering local development, and fostering innovation in academic research [3] - The institute is expected to become a leading professional think tank in China, with a strong influence in the field of digital economy and real economy integration [3][4] Group 2 - The establishment of the research institute involves a strategic cooperation council formed by the Central Committee of the China Democratic League, the Suzhou Municipal Government, and Suzhou University, which will coordinate and make decisions on major issues [3] - The meeting approved the draft of the institute's charter and elected Zhang Guiping, Chairman of Suning Universal Group, as the institute's chairman [4] - The research institute will address significant issues related to advancing new industrialization and promoting the deep integration of digital economy and real economy, aiming to create internationally competitive digital industry clusters [3][4]