市统计局相关负责人表示，总的来看，随着一揽子政策措施协同发力，全市经济延续稳中向好态势。但 也要看到，当前外部环境不稳定不确定因素较多，经济持续向好基础还需加力稳固。下阶段仍要抓创新 增动力、抓项目扩投资、抓工业强支撑、抓消费提活力、抓改革促开放，推动经济稳定健康较快增长。 市场物价总体稳定。1~7月，全市居民消费价格（CPI）同比下降0.2%。 固定资产投资增势良好。1~7月，全市固定资产投资同比增长5.4%，比上半年提高1.1个百分点。重大项 目投资带动作用持续提升，亿元及以上项目（不含房地产开发）完成投资同比增长14.3%，比上半年加 快0.9个百分点，拉动全市投资增长7.3个百分点。工业投资延续两位数增长态势，工业投资同比增长 34.6%，比上半年提高3.1个百分点，连续7个月保持两位数高速增长态势。民间投资活力不断释放，民 间投资同比增长11.7%，比上半年提高1.7个百分点。 消费需求持续释放。7月全市社会消费品零售总额492.3亿元，同比增长4.6%。其中，基本生活类消费快 速增长，部分升级类消费增速加快，住宿餐饮消费有所回升。1~7月，全市社会消费品零售总额3829.7 亿元，同比增长6.3% ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 35 周 2025 年 8 月 25 日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.icbc.com.cn 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数进一步扩张，显示中国经济动能持续增强，修复 态势从初步企稳走向更具广度和深度的协调扩张。四大分项指标全线走强，构 成经济运行的多重支撑。其中，消费景气指数显著上行，重回扩张区间并创近 一个月来新高，反映出居民消费信心加快恢复，服务类消费表现尤为亮眼。投 资景气指数进一步提升，政策驱动下的基建和制造业投资持续扩张。生产景气 指数显著改善，产能利用率大幅抬升，供给端延续良好韧性，成为当前经济增 长的重要引擎。出口景气指数同步回升，在外部需求整体偏弱的背景下展现出 较强适应能力和结构优势。总体而言，本周经济运行从边际修复走向实质扩 张，展现出消费、投资、生产与出口协同发力的积极格局，政策效应持续释 放，经济增长基础进一步夯实。 2025 年 7 月中国经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。内需稳步恢复， ...

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady growth trend, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% from January to July [1][3] - The service industry continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to economic stability [6] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintains robust growth, with high-quality development progressing steadily, showcasing resilience and potential [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in integrated circuits and electronic materials [2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are key contributors, with respective growth rates of 8.4% and 9.3% [1][2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to expand, with a total of 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries such as aerospace and information services seeing substantial increases [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales showed positive growth, with total retail sales reaching 38,780 billion yuan in July, up 3.7% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [4][5] - The consumption upgrade policy, including trade-in programs, has positively impacted sales of upgraded goods [5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's contribution to economic growth is significant, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in added value in the first half of 2025 [6] - The service production index rose by 5.8% in July, with information technology services growing at 11.9% [6]

Group 1 - The nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment in China fell to 1.6% in the first seven months, but the actual growth, after excluding price factors, is approximately 4% to 5%, indicating a systematic optimization of the investment structure as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [1] - Investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with notable growth in traditional manufacturing upgrades and high-end industries, such as aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing, which saw year-on-year growth rates of 33.9% and 16% respectively [1] - Investment in major sectors is growing rapidly, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 15.2% year-on-year, accounting for 16.2% of total investment and contributing 2.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Group 2 - Investment in renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower, increased by 21.9% year-on-year, supporting the green transformation of the economy and reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuels [2] - There is significant potential for investment in infrastructure and industrial upgrades, driven by the urbanization of nearly 300 million agricultural migrants, which creates demand for education, healthcare, and housing [2] - Policy measures are being implemented to stimulate effective investment, including the promotion of a unified national market and the activation of private capital through tools like REITs and industrial funds, which will enhance the investment environment [2]

Economic Overview - In July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [3] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the manufacturing value of digital products growing by 8.4% in July [3] - The total import and export volume in July increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [4] High-Tech Manufacturing - The production of industrial robots increased by 24%, while the production of civilian drones rose by 18.9% [3] - Investment in high-end industries has increased significantly, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing investment rising by 33.9% [7] Foreign Trade - The export of high-tech products grew by 7.2%, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 21.8% [4] - The diversification of trade is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries growing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively [4] Consumer Market - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 28.7%, while furniture sales rose by 20.6% in July [5] - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with real growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [7] - Investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 6.2%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate [7] Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a positive change, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, indicating a strengthening market demand [8]

Economic Overview - July economic data shows marginal weakening, with declines in social retail sales, investment, industrial output, and service production indices compared to June [1][6] - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year was better than expected, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6] Export and Import Data - In July, total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing 8.0% [2][3] - Despite a decrease in exports to the US due to tariff adjustments, China's overall export performance remains resilient, particularly in non-US markets [2][3] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, growing only 3.7%, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [2][3] - The slowdown in retail growth is attributed to the temporary suspension of the "trade-in" policy in some regions [3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline from the previous months [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease compared to earlier months [3][4] Policy Implications - The government is expected to enhance macroeconomic policies, including fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts, to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [5][6][8] - The introduction of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in "national subsidies" is anticipated to boost retail sales in August [3][8] Sectoral Performance - New industries are experiencing rapid investment growth, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing seeing increases of 33.9% and 16% respectively from January to July [4] - The renewable energy sector also shows strong investment growth, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments rising by 21.9% [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the international environment was complex and severe, with extreme weather conditions impacting economic operations, yet key economic indicators remained stable overall [1][8] - The industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year in July, while the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1][3] Industrial Production - The industrial production showed a steady and relatively fast growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector performed well, with an increase of 8.4% in added value, and high-tech manufacturing saw a growth of 9.3%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [3] - The "two new" policies continued to show positive effects, with significant growth in specific industries such as shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing, which grew by 29.7% and 15.9% respectively [3] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth estimated between 4% to 5% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 33.9% and 16% respectively [4] Consumer Market - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to June [6] - The sales of home appliances and communication devices saw substantial growth, with increases of 28.7% and 14.9% respectively [6] - Service retail maintained stability, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July, supported by active markets in sports events, movies, and cultural tourism [6] Future Outlook - The economic foundation remains stable with strong potential for growth, supported by effective macroeconomic policies and increased market demand [8][9] - The government plans to implement policies to lower credit costs for personal consumption and service industry loans, which is expected to stimulate consumption and promote service sector growth [9] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for China's economy by 0.8 percentage points, indicating increased international confidence in China's economic development [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the economic performance of China in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a nominal growth in fixed asset investment of 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth adjusted for price factors estimated at around 4%-5% [3][4]. - The decline in nominal investment growth is attributed to several factors, including adverse weather conditions, complex external environments, intensified domestic competition, and a decrease in investment returns, alongside a weakening of traditional industry investment momentum during the transition to new industries [3][4]. - Despite the nominal growth decline, the physical workload of investments remains robust, particularly driven by innovation and large-scale equipment updates, leading to a continuous optimization of investment structure [3][4]. Group 2 - Manufacturing investment has seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in the first seven months, outpacing overall investment growth. Notable sectors include textiles and apparel (25.2%), automotive manufacturing (21.7%), and general equipment manufacturing (14.8%) [3][4]. - Investment in high-end industries has also increased, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing up by 33.9%, computer and office equipment manufacturing by 16%, and information services by 32.8% [4]. - Key infrastructure investments have grown, particularly in water management (12.6%) and information transmission (8.3%), with large-scale equipment purchases contributing significantly to overall investment growth [4]. - Investments in green energy transition are steadily increasing, with combined investments in solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower generation rising by 21.9% year-on-year [4]. Group 3 - Overall, China's investment scale continues to expand, and the investment structure is improving, with pressures on investment growth being viewed as temporary [5]. - The potential for future investment remains substantial, with significant gaps in per capita capital stock compared to developed countries, necessitating increased investment in new productive forces, urban-rural coordination, and social welfare [5]. - The focus moving forward will be on maintaining high-quality development, advancing the construction of a unified national market, optimizing the investment environment, and stimulating private investment to promote effective investment and sustainable economic growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is being enhanced to further stimulate investment and consumption, with a focus on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Growth - The market scale for equipment updates is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually as many existing assets reach their end-of-life [2]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan of special long-term bonds will support over 4,600 projects across 12 sectors, including industrial and environmental infrastructure [2]. - By 2025, the funding for equipment updates will increase to 200 billion yuan, expanding support to additional sectors such as electronic information and agricultural facilities [2]. Group 2: Equipment Update Impact - The total number of equipment updates in key sectors is expected to surpass 20 million units in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in related manufacturing sectors [3]. - Industries such as medical equipment and general parts manufacturing have seen profit increases of 12.1% and 9.5% respectively, indicating a positive impact from the equipment update policies [3]. Group 3: Consumer Activation - There is substantial potential for consumer goods replacement, with over 7 million passenger cars and 180 million household appliances exceeding their safe usage period [4]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan will be allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods, with the funding increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. - The sales generated from consumer goods replacement programs are projected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and 1.6 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [4]. Group 4: Policy Implementation and Support - The government is committed to ensuring the effective use of special long-term bond funds, with 690 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement already distributed [7]. - There is a focus on enhancing the efficiency of project implementation and fund allocation to ensure a smooth execution of the "Two New" policies [7]. - The government aims to create a long-term mechanism for updates and replacements, emphasizing strict supervision and risk management [8].

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, China's fixed asset investment maintained a total growth of 2.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.6% excluding real estate development investment [1] - Manufacturing investment achieved a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, with significant increases in the aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing sectors, growing by 26.3% and 21.5% respectively [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.6% year-on-year, supported by the "two重" policy which has allocated 800 billion yuan for construction projects [1] Group 2 - The "two新" policy has driven a significant increase in equipment and tool purchases, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, particularly in 3D printing and industrial robots, which grew by 43.1% and 35.6% respectively [2] - Investment has played a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting long-term development, despite facing new challenges due to demographic changes [2] - The high proportion of fixed capital formation in GDP necessitates improved investment efficiency to support high-quality economic development [2] Group 3 - There is a need to focus on effective investment that addresses aging infrastructure and meets consumer demand, thereby stimulating suppressed consumption [3] - Investment should also align with new production requirements, emphasizing strategic emerging industries and the transformation of traditional industries [3] - A balanced approach to "investment in people" and "investment in material" is essential for enhancing human capital and improving quality of life [3]