以下文章来源于芒格书院 ，作者芒格书院小芒 芒格书院 . 由资深出版人施宏俊先生创立，定位于为终身学习者提供学习和思考的知识资源，推动认知升级和思想 分享。 接下来，我将介绍未来5年值得密切关注且可能具备投资价值的几大核心主题： 1.科技领域。第一个毫无疑问是科技领域，但这并不容易，因为科技类股票当前估值普遍较高。 2.金属与采矿业。这一领域可能有些不同寻常，我认为将来可能出现金属短缺，因此相关企业有望迎来爆发 式增长。 3."激情投资"。那些不涉及技术迭代、供给无法扩张的资产，在创新活动极为密集的时期，其价格往往会大 幅上涨。 9月20日下午，丹麦作家、企业家、投资人拉斯·特维德（Lars Tvede）携新作《超智能与未来》现身上海， 在芒格书院与中信出版作家演讲局联合组织的活动中，与书院会员们深度讨论了未来五年最具前景的投资 方向。 拥有横跨金融、科技创业与未来学领域的"跨界头脑"，特维德的经历堪称传奇：他不仅是Supertrends AG创 新地图公司、 Atlas Global Macro对冲基金、Fiftyfive Capital风投基金的联合创始人，更凭借《逃不开的经济 周期》《金融心理学》等著作 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：有色龙头159876） 10月10日，截至11时06分，有色龙头ETF盘中表现疲软，场内价格现跌3.1%，成交额为1.21亿元，基金 最新规模为4.83亿元。 西部证券指出，稀土出口管制政策持续强化，新增对二次资源回收利用的管控，预计2025年二次回收供 给占比将达27%，供给端已完全管控，难以出现突发增量；技术出口限制切断海外企业通过中国技术人 员扩产的可能。政策全面管控下，稀土供给端扰动频发，金属板块有望实现多重共振。 申万宏源证券指出，有色金属行业景气度维持高位，工业金属方面，9月世界铜矿巨头因印尼矿山安全 事件部分停产，供给约束预期叠加弱美元环境，铜铝等工业金属价格延续上行。稀土方面，商务部对稀 土相关技术实施出口管制，供给政策继续收紧，价格延续强势。 有色龙头ETF（$华宝中证有色金属ETF$）被动跟踪中证有色指数，该指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿 业、北方稀土、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、山东黄金、赣锋锂业、中国铝业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、天齐锂 业。 数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应 ...

| 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 6.00 | 5.60 | -3.00 | | 2025 ...

假期期间，贵金属和工业金属价格显著上涨，主要原因包括以下几点：首先， 美国政府停摆导致数据空窗期，引发市场情绪炒作。其次，日本新首相高市早 苗上台后，采取了偏宽松的货币政策，与市场预期的紧缩政策相反，这对全球 商品价格产生了积极影响。此外，美国和日本都走向宽松货币政策，推动全球 主流货币贬值预期，从而刺激商品价格上涨。最后，从微观面来看，包括印尼 政府对锡价格的监管政策以及中非区域内铜矿带资产的变化，都对金属价格产 生了正向影响。 日本新首相高市早苗上台后，其货币政策对全球商品市场有何影响？ 高市早苗上台后采取了偏宽松的货币政策，这与市场预期的紧缩政策相反。此 举在一定程度上缓解了美元强势压力，同时推动贵金属交易活跃。在美国和日 本都走向宽松货币政策的大背景下，全球主流货币贬值预期增强，对后续商品 价格形成积极刺激。 中非区域铜矿带资产变化及其对铜价走势有何影响？ 金、银、铜、钴，动态扫描及观点更新 20251008 摘要 日本新首相宽松货币政策与市场预期相反，缓解美元强势，刺激贵金属 交易，并增强全球主流货币贬值预期，对商品价格形成积极刺激。 中非铜矿带资产变化及洛比托走廊计划提升嘉能可等公司定价能力，逆 ...

2025年国庆中秋假期期间，外盘有色金属品种表现优异，具体来看，伦铜上涨3.54%，伦锡上涨4.06%，伦镍上涨 1.74%，伦铝上涨2.96%，伦锌上涨0.98%。 | 类别 | 品种 | 9月30号15:00 | 10月8号9:00 | 沿线墙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我国日世 | CMX黄金 | 3883.9 | 4014 | 3.35% | | | CMX白银 | 46.965 | 47.715 | 1.60% | | | 铁矿FE | 102.65 | 104.05 | 1.36% | | | 铜 | 10375 | 10742 | 3.54% | | | 铝 | 2664.5 | 2743.5 | 2.96% | | 厚 | 損 | 15200 | 15465 | 1.74% | | | 铝 | 1991 | 2010.5 | 0.98% | | | 锡 | 35125 | 36520 | 4.06% | | | 年 | 2917.5 | 3046 | 4.40% | | | CBOT美豆油 | 49.67 | 51.16 | 3.00% | | | ...

兴业银锡（000426）(000426.SZ)发布公告，公司股票于2025年9月26日、2025年9月29日、2025年9月30 日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅累计偏离20.78%，符合深圳证券交易所股票异常波动的相关标准。 经公司董事会分析，公司本次股价异动主要原因系公司主营产品白银与锡的市场价格近期出现显著波 动。 ...

美国政府直接下场投资企业的行为，正在华尔街催生一种新的高风险投资游戏。随着一连串政府注资引爆目标公司股价，投资者正争相猜测并押注下一个可能获 得垂青的公司，以期在政府行动前布局，攫取惊人回报。 这场高风险的押注游戏近期愈演愈烈。锂矿公司Critical Metals Corp.的股价周一因传闻其正与美国政府洽谈潜在入股而一度飙升，USA Rare Earth Inc.的股价也在上周五因类似传言而大涨。周一晚间，白宫证实将收购Trilogy Metals Inc.公司10%的股份，消息一出，这家市值约3.43亿美元的公司股 价应声翻倍。 政府注资点燃股价 对于投资者而言，紧跟政府的投资步伐有着充分的理由。在国防部为其提供23亿美元贷款后，Lithium Americas的股价已上涨近两倍。在特朗普政府将 其100亿美元的联邦拨款强制转为10%的股权后，陷入困境的英特尔股价也得以重振，今年迄今已上涨82%。而当联邦政府同意购买MP Materials价值 4亿美元的股票时，该股当年涨幅更是达到了惊人的376%。 Global X Investments的研究分析师Brooke Thackray表示："投资者突然之 ...

道指涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.13%，纳指涨0.13%。Trilogy Metals大涨240%，美国政府将收购其10% 股份。戴尔涨超5%，公司上调长期营收增长预期。IBM涨超2%，公司与Anthropic达成企业级人工智能 软件合作协议。 来源：第一财经 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's direct investment in companies is creating a high-risk speculative environment on Wall Street, with investors eager to predict which companies will receive government support next to capitalize on potential stock price surges [1][2]. Group 1: Government Investment Impact - Recent government investments have led to significant stock price increases for companies like Trilogy Metals Inc., which saw its stock double after the government confirmed a 10% stake acquisition [1]. - Previous investments by the Trump administration in companies such as MP Materials Corp. and Intel Corp. resulted in stock price increases of 376% and 82%, respectively, highlighting a pattern of substantial returns following government capital injections [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the government's strategy aims to bolster domestic manufacturers and technology suppliers to secure critical supply chains, further incentivizing investor speculation [3][4]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior and Risks - The speculative nature of current market behavior is underscored by the volatility seen in stocks like Critical Metals Corp., which experienced a 109% surge before a government clarification led to a significant price correction [4]. - Comparisons are drawn between the current market dynamics and the "meme stock" frenzy during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating potential for similar volatility and risk if government investments do not yield expected results [4]. - Despite the risks, Wall Street continues to seek out potential investment targets, with a focus on companies involved in critical materials, both domestically and internationally [5][6]. Group 3: ETF and Market Trends - The interest in critical mineral companies has also positively impacted related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the Sprott Critical Minerals ETF, which saw record inflows and a 77% increase in value this year [7]. - The actions of the U.S. government are viewed as a catalyst for growth in specific industries, indicating a shift from mere verbal support to tangible investment strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future investment opportunities and risks identified by Lars Tvede, focusing on five key themes for the next five years, including technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [6][9]. Group 1: Key Investment Themes - Technology is highlighted as a primary investment area, although current valuations are generally high [9]. - The metals and mining sector is expected to experience significant growth due to potential shortages, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum [30]. - Passion investments, which include unique assets like prime beachfront properties and limited-edition cars, are anticipated to see increased demand as wealth grows [33]. - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are projected to thrive, with China showing significant innovation capabilities and potential for economic growth [36][37]. - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued and is expected to benefit from advancements in AI, leading to a surge in new products and services [40][42]. Group 2: AI and Its Impact - The article emphasizes that a significant portion of future profits will derive from generative AI, which is expected to create strong business moats for companies that effectively implement it [19][20]. - The effective compute power for AI has increased dramatically, with estimates showing a growth of 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023, and this trend is expected to continue [13]. - The rise of reasoning AI and physical AI is anticipated to transform various industries, with predictions indicating that by 2050, 80% of physical labor could be performed by intelligent robots [22][29]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the current valuation of metals is not overly low, making significant price increases challenging, except for specific metals like uranium [30]. - The Asian markets, particularly those in ASEAN, are highlighted for their potential growth, with low forward P/E ratios and significant economic growth prospects [36][37]. - The Chinese stock market is currently at a historical low, presenting a potential opportunity for significant gains as capital flows into the market [38]. Group 4: Future of Energy - The article discusses the potential for nuclear energy, particularly small modular reactors, to play a crucial role in the future energy landscape, with predictions of significant advancements in nuclear fusion technology [57][59]. - The shift towards nuclear energy is seen as a necessary step for companies to meet energy demands sustainably while reducing carbon emissions [58].