Group 1: Cross-Border Tourism and Economic Growth - The Chinese inbound tourism market is experiencing significant growth potential, with predictions of a 4 to 8 times increase in market size over the next decade [1] - Current inbound tourism revenue accounts for only 0.5% of China's GDP, compared to 2% in Italy and France, indicating substantial room for growth [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange and Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB exchange rate saw a significant increase, rising over 600 basis points in a single day, driven by improved expectations for China's foreign trade environment and actions by major U.S. retailers [2] - The A-share market is experiencing a period of low trading volume and sector rotation, with certain industries like automotive parts and software development performing well [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are at 13.97 and 34.47 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3] - The market is expected to continue a structural trend driven by policies and performance, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts [3] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 exceeding expectations [4][5] - Emphasis on stabilizing and activating the capital market, with a focus on technology and consumption sectors, is expected to enhance market stability [5][6] Group 5: Robotics and Technology Investment - The development of dexterous hands for humanoid robots is set to accelerate, with significant advancements expected by 2025, enhancing the operational capabilities of robots [7] - The market for humanoid robots is projected to reach approximately 90 billion by 2030, with key components like tactile sensors and motors being critical for growth [9] Group 6: Domestic Innovation and Technology Independence - The domestic innovation industry is entering a phase of accelerated growth, with a projected market size of 26,559 billion by 2026 [10] - The urgency for technological self-sufficiency is increasing due to external uncertainties, with government policies supporting the development of domestic software and hardware solutions [11][12]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

Industry Overview - The esports industry in China has matured, with significant breakthroughs in technologies such as 5G and AIGC. The domestic game market achieved a sales revenue of 302.96 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.95% and surpassing the 300 billion yuan mark for the first time. The market is projected to reach 324.64 billion yuan in 2024, indicating steady growth potential [1][20][25]. Industry Chain - The esports industry chain has formed a complete ecosystem covering hardware, content, events, and commercialization. The demand for GPUs is driven by the increasing use of high-end computing systems for graphics-intensive gaming applications. The GPU market in China reached 80.7 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 32.78% from 2022, and is expected to reach 107.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 120 billion yuan in 2025 [2][34][39]. Company Focus - Thunderobot Technology, the first esports equipment company listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focuses on integrating AI technology. The company has launched the flagship AI gaming laptop ZERO 18 Pro, equipped with high-performance hardware. In 2024, Thunderobot is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.955 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.65% [3][23][59]. Market Dynamics - The esports market is benefiting from the robust growth of esports games, the development of professional and amateur esports events, and the flourishing esports ecosystem. The number of registered esports-related companies in China exceeded 120,000 by the end of 2023, indicating intense competition within the industry [25][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]

Group 1 - The current situation between China and the US is significantly different from the previous trade conflict that began in 2018, with China having more room for policy maneuvering and asset price adjustments [1][14][43] - By early 2025, China's economic indicators such as PPI, real estate cycle, inventory cycle, and AH valuation are expected to be at historical lows, while fiscal expansion has considerable room for growth [2][15] - In contrast, the US economy in early 2025 is characterized by high deficit rates, debt levels, and interest expenditures, which limit further fiscal expansion, alongside a weak real estate recovery [19][20][21] Group 2 - The strategy for China involves enhancing domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and accelerating the development of new productive forces in technology, while waiting for increased domestic pressure in the US to explore negotiation opportunities [43] - Investment opportunities may arise from fiscal countermeasures, technology independence, and breaking through external demand channels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, military electronics, and the Belt and Road Initiative [43][61] Group 3 - The market is expected to respond positively to increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and technology independence, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from fiscal stimulus [44][45] - The technology sector, particularly in consumer electronics and semiconductors, is anticipated to gradually desensitize to trade conflicts, as seen in previous cycles [48][57] - The diversification of export markets is a potential strategy, with a notable decrease in reliance on the US market and an increase in exports to Southeast Asia and other regions [61][63]

Core Viewpoint - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological innovation, macroeconomic policies, industrial environment, and valuation levels, with a particular focus on AI technology as a significant catalyst for change [2][3][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Asset Revaluation - Technological innovation, exemplified by DeepSeek in the AI sector, is a key factor driving the revaluation of Chinese assets, showcasing China's capabilities in manufacturing and technology [2]. - The macroeconomic policy environment is improving, with the government signaling a shift to a "dual easing" cycle, which is expected to stabilize the economy and improve corporate profitability [3]. - Industrial policies are revitalizing market confidence, particularly in the private sector, which is crucial for economic growth and investment [3]. Group 2: Valuation Characteristics - Current asset valuations in China are at historical lows, with broad indices and major industries undervalued compared to international peers, creating an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - The combination of low valuations and improving fundamentals is drawing global investors to reassess the investment value of the Chinese market [4]. Group 3: International Market Context - The global market's adjustments, including a weakening dollar and volatility in U.S. stocks, are enhancing the comparative advantages of Chinese equities [5][6]. - The current economic uncertainty in the U.S. is prompting capital to flow out of American markets, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7]. Group 4: AI Sector Potential - The AI sector in China is characterized by low-cost advantages, an open-source ecosystem, and ongoing application innovations, indicating significant growth potential [8][9]. - The transition from concept validation to commercial realization in AI is expected to drive performance in the next 1-3 years, marking a shift towards earnings-driven investment [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Three categories of industries are identified for potential investment: those driven by policy stimulus, those with cleared supply-side issues, and those with clear demand-side support [10][11][12]. - A phased investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with immediate policy impacts, followed by those with supply-side adjustments, and finally, long-term growth sectors in technology [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the investment strategy of "Technology + Consumption" for 2025, with technology already forming a consensus expectation while the consumption aspect still has potential to be explored [1][9]. - The report identifies two key expectation gaps: the first being that even with weak fiscal expansion, retail sales (社零) will exhibit higher elasticity [2][12]. - The report anticipates that as the fiscal spending cycle transitions from a contraction phase in 2023-2024 to a weak expansion phase in 2025, retail sales will show significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Group 2 - The second expectation gap highlights the easing of local debt pressure on consumption, indicating that provinces with higher debt burdens will see more pronounced rebounds in retail sales in categories such as jewelry, clothing, automobiles, and cosmetics [3][18]. - The report suggests that the market may experience short-term consolidation due to high market sentiment, profit-taking, and the calendar effect of the Two Sessions, but the core driving force of the current market remains unchanged [20][21]. - Industry allocation recommendations include four key sectors: (1) Technology growth focusing on AI and autonomous control, (2) Consumption driven by policy and endogenous recovery, (3) Cost improvement sectors, and (4) Structural opportunities in overseas markets [21][22].