塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] Core View - Downstream demand follow - up is weak, and the market is weakly consolidating. The market has returned to fundamental trading. The downstream demand is in the off - season. The agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have slightly increased. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement and general inventory - building enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand procurement. The number of PE maintenance devices has increased, and the PE supply side has eased. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has decreased. It is expected that the future supply will increase. Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the production profit of PDH - made PP has recovered. Attention should be paid to the restart of shut - down devices [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][9][12] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 533.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), the PP oil - based production profit is 93.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 290.9 yuan/ton (+ 7.5) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Analyzed the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire in East China [28][35][36] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 91.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), the PP import profit is - 574.5 yuan/ton (+ 3.2), and the PP export profit is 17.7 US dollars/ton (- 0.3) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [72][76][86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Plastic is cautiously bearish in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand is weakening, and polyolefins continue to be weak. With an increase in domestic plant maintenance, domestic supply pressure has weakened, and imports are expected to decrease. Propane prices have fallen, but the production profit of PDH - made PP is still in large losses, and many PDH plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is about to enter the traditional off - season, and the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, with inventory shifting to the middle and lower reaches [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7222元/吨（-16），PP主力合约收盘价为7047元/吨（-31），LL华北现货为7350元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7420元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为128元/吨（-34），LL华东基差为198元/吨（+16），PP华东基差为133元/吨（+31） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.4%（-4.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-3.2%）。PE油制生产利润为569.1元/吨（-15.2），PP油制生产利润为89.1元/吨（-15.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 315.9元/吨（-36.7） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 74.5元/吨（-7.1），PP进口利润为 - 531.6元/吨（-57.3），PP出口利润为22.3美元/吨（+7.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为16.7%（-2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+1.1%），PP下游塑编开工率为45.3%（+0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.9%（+2.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Downstream factories have increased their inventory replenishment efforts, the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, and inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the PVC futures price fluctuated and rose this week. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week's close [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, some PVC production facilities were shut down for maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was not significant. The costs of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits of the two methods were repaired to varying degrees [9]. - Looking ahead, next week, there will be both shutdown and restart of facilities, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with generally low supply pressure. Affected by macro - positive factors, the domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but the weak real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season, and the unresolved tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The calcium carbide price may fluctuate, and the ethylene price may fluctuate slightly within a range. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 4,900 and resistance around 5,100 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PVC futures price fluctuated and rose due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - some facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. Demand side - the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits were repaired [9]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with low supply pressure. The domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but real estate drags down demand. Exports face challenges. Calcium carbide and ethylene prices may fluctuate. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 4,900 and resistance at 5,100 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price and warehouse receipts: The V2509 contract fluctuated and rose, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and spread: The position of the main contract decreased week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread was slightly stronger [14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot price - imports and exports: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [20]. - Spot price - overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [25]. - Spot price - domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method: The prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [28]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures market remained in a contango state [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Lanthanum coke and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide remained stable this week. The lanthanum coke start - up rate was 54.13%, and the calcium carbide start - up rate was 64.38% [37][43]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 US dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 162 US dollars/ton [47]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - capacity and output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tons, a month - on - month increase [51]. - Supply - capacity utilization and maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [55]. - Demand - downstream start - up rate: The pipe start - up rate increased week - on - week, and the profile start - up rate remained stable [59]. - Demand - PVC floor exports: The PVC floor exports in March increased month - on - month [63]. - Imports and exports: Exports in March increased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month but remained at a low level [66]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [70]. - Cost: The calcium carbide method cost decreased slightly, and the ethylene method cost decreased week - on - week [74]. - Profit: The process profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method were repaired this week [80]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.90%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.89%, and that of put options was 19.93% [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefins has been alleviated due to increased plant maintenance, new capacity from Huizhou ExxonMobil, and the "China-US tariff" benefit. However, the inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, leading to high de-stocking pressure. The market may trade based on the "rush to export" logic, and downstream demand may improve in the future. The seasonal decline in agricultural film production is observed, while the operating rates of other industries remain stable, mainly driven by rigid demand. With the significant drop in crude oil prices, the cost support for polyolefins is weak. The production profit of PDH-based PP is slightly in the red, and there are many PDH plants under maintenance. Future attention should be paid to the restart plans of PDH plants [2] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for plastics on a single-side basis, and no cross-period strategy is proposed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,298 yuan/ton (-41), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,161 yuan/ton (-32). The spot price of LL in North China is 7,430 yuan/ton (+30), and in East China is 7,450 yuan/ton (+50). The spot price of PP in East China is 7,250 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is 132 yuan/ton (+71), in East China is 152 yuan/ton (+91), and the basis of PP in East China is 89 yuan/ton (+32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 79.5% (-4.5%), and the operating rate of PP is 76.6% (-3.2%). The oil-based production profit of PE is 515.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), the oil-based production profit of PP is 125.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), and the production profit of PDH-based PP is -273.7 yuan/ton (-7.1) [1] 3. Non-standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - Not provided in the given content 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - The import profit of LL is -81.8 yuan/ton (+13.3), the import profit of PP is -361.9 yuan/ton (-123.4), and the export profit of PP is 12.2 US dollars/ton (-6.1) [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit of Polyolefins - The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 16.7% (-2.8%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.7% (+1.1%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 45.3% (+0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 59.9% (+2.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, and the de-stocking pressure is high, but specific inventory data is not provided [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The PVC market has been experiencing a downward trend since April, with prices in East China dropping to 4730 yuan per ton as of May 8, a decrease of 140 yuan or 2.87% from April 1 [1] - Supply expectations are increasing due to limited maintenance during the conventional repair season and the introduction of new production capacities [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The maintenance period for PVC production is expected to last from April to August, with production rates increasing post-holiday [2] - PVC production is projected to reach 474,000 tons during the period from May 3 to 9, reflecting a 2.4% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Planned maintenance capacity in April was approximately 5.7 million tons, which is a 20.94% decrease compared to the previous two years, limiting effective supply reduction [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for PVC is supported by stimulus policies in the real estate market, but overall demand remains weak due to uncertainties from the US-China trade disputes [3] - The construction and renovation sectors are expected to drive traditional PVC demand, but low operating rates in PVC pipe and profile enterprises indicate weak internal demand [3] - India, as the largest export destination for Chinese PVC, poses risks due to anti-dumping policies, potentially affecting over 700,000 tons of PVC consumption [3] Group 4: Cost Considerations - The domestic PVC production primarily uses the calcium carbide method, but the proportion of ethylene-based PVC is gradually increasing, reaching 27.91% as of April [4] - The reliance on imported ethane for ethylene production could lead to increased costs if tariffs are imposed, potentially pushing production costs above the breakeven point [4][5] - The impact of US-China trade tensions may raise the cost of imported ethane, affecting coastal ethylene projects, although the overall effect on PVC powder may be limited due to diverse raw material sources [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PVC shows a relatively strong trend, but there will still be pressure in the later stage. Macro - level factors like the Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush are positive, but from a fundamental perspective, the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease, and high - price transactions are slowing down with a significantly weakened basis [1]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The high - production situation persists due to strong demand and high profits in the caustic soda market in 2025, the “subsidizing chlorine with alkali” model in the chlor - alkali industry, and upcoming new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can reduce inventory quickly in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand related to real - estate downstream PVC products is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 09 - contract futures price is 4986, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 206, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 98 [1]. Spot Market - Domestic PVC spot prices have been raised. Positive macro - expectations and the rise of industrial products have boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the futures price. However, demand is cautious, high - price transactions have slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode in the short term. The market supply remains high, and the impact of policies on demand is yet to be observed. In the East China region, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4880 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4900 - 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Situation Analysis - **Macro - level**: The Sino - US phased reconciliation is positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [1]. - **Fundamental level**: Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. High - price transactions are slowing down, and the basis has weakened significantly [1]. High - Production Pattern - In the first quarter of 2025, the maintenance volume of PVC was low, and the high - production pattern continued. The strong demand for caustic soda in 2025 supports high profits, and the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali to subsidize chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. Moreover, there will be more new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. High - Inventory Pressure - In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce inventory in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2][3]

Group 1 - PVC futures rose by 1.07% to 4892 yuan/ton in the night session [1] - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, indicating a trend of inventory reduction with limited pressure [2] - The overall operating rate of PVC this week is 80.3%, up 1% week-on-week, with the calcium carbide method at 81.3% (up 2.3%) and the ethylene method at 77.8% (down 2.4%) [2] Group 2 - Spring maintenance is halfway through, with the scale not matching last year's levels, and recent operating rates are rebounding; however, PVC faces pressure until demand improves [3] - Long-term outlook for PVC demand remains weak due to real estate drag, with exports facing anti-dumping and BIS certification pressures, maintaining a stable state of price for volume [3] - Recent inventory reduction is acceptable but still high, with a loose supply-demand balance; macroeconomic factors are expected to dominate price movements [3]

上周受渤化等装置提负影响，PVC产能利用率环比+0.70%至79.33%。上周管材开工率环比+1.05%至 48.34%，型材开工率环比-6.5%至34.15%。 截至5月8日，PVC社会库存新（41家）样本统计环比减少0.41%至65.10万吨，对外出口集中交付依旧带 动市场库存去化。 5月8日PVC常州市场价4660元/吨（-40），主力基差-179元/吨(+3），广州市场价4790元/吨（0），杭州 市场价4730元/吨（-40）。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年5月9日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4805元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持182689 手。 本周（5月6日-5月9日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4930元/吨，最高触及4960元/吨，最低下探至 4800元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.54%。 消息面回顾： 中辉期货：供给端，1月新增新浦化学50万吨装置投产。供给端高位承压，产能利用率为79%。需求 端，房地产竣工面积降幅收窄，下游开工率季节性下降。出口方面，2025年1-3月PVC累计出口98万 吨，累计同比+56%，5月台塑报价环比持平。综上，开工继续上行，上游累库，仓单持续注册， ...