封关首月，离岛免税市场也交出一份亮眼答卷。据统计，自2025年12月18日至2026年1月17日，海口海 关共监管离岛免税购物金额48.6亿元，同比增长46.8%；购物人数74.5万人次，同比增长30.2%；购物件 数349.4万件，同比增长14.6%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。 此外，海南自贸港还吸引更多旅客通过海南口岸进出境，一个月来，海关共监管海南空港口岸进出境人 员31.1万人次，同比增长48.8%。 目前，海口海关以智慧监管为引擎，从商品入库到旅客提货，构建了一套全链条、智能化、高效率的海 关监管服务模式。依托大数据平台和"集中+自动"审单系统，实现免税品"即到即报、即审即放"，显著 节约企业时间与物流成本，为封关平稳运行提供有力保障。 本报北京1月18日电(记者王俊岭)记者18日从海关总署了解到，海南自贸港封关以来，各项政策扎实推 进，口岸通关顺畅高效，整体运行平稳有序。据海口海关统计，自2025年12月18日封关以来截至2026年 1月17日，海关在"一线"监管"零关税"货物7.5亿元，在"二线"监管销往内地的加工增值免关税货物 8586.7万元。受海南自贸港封关利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current equity market, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, presents a favorable investment period despite a disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment [1] Economic Recovery and Structural Changes - The core variables that have caused market concerns in recent years, such as real estate, foreign trade structure, and manufacturing supply-demand relationships, are undergoing significant adjustments [2] - The real estate sector has experienced substantial adjustments since 2021, leading to a gradual reduction in its negative impact on consumer wealth and spending [2] - China's reliance on a single export market has decreased, with a more diversified export structure and an increase in high-value-added products, reducing overall external risk exposure [2] - The manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery as capital expenditures have declined, leading to clearer supply constraints and a correction of previous over-expansion impacts [2] - The capital market is also evolving, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Industry Trends: Technology, New Energy, and Cycles - The investment framework emphasizes that technology, new energy, and cyclical industries are interconnected and reflect different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results rather than short-term gains, with particular attention on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy investments are driven by supply-demand structural changes, with some sectors experiencing reduced capital expenditures while downstream demand continues to grow [3] - The cyclical sector is assessed based on structural judgments, focusing on industries with clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can enhance profitability even with limited demand growth [3] Portfolio Structure - The core of the portfolio structure is not to bet on a single direction but to find value across different industrial cycles [4] - The current stage allows for a resonance among technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors in terms of industrial logic, valuation levels, and verifiability, enhancing the portfolio's adaptability in structural markets [4] Company Quality Focus - The emphasis is placed on company quality, with a preference for long-term holdings that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential [5][6] - Companies must demonstrate the ability to navigate through cycles and consistently deliver performance, with dividends and buybacks seen as indicators of mature corporate governance [6] - A more cautious approach to left-side positioning is adopted, with a focus on participating during clearer industrial trends and balancing return potential with risk control over a 3 to 12-month horizon [6] - The importance of research collaboration is highlighted, with the goal of supporting real investment decisions and maintaining patience and discipline to achieve returns in structural markets [6]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in foreign trade enterprises, with 5,132 new registered foreign trade companies since the closure on December 18, 2025 [1] - The average approval time for enterprise registration has been reduced by nearly 60%, with over 100 inquiries received daily through a single hotline [1] - In the first month of operation, customs regulated zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, benefiting local enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions [1] Group 2 - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with a total shopping amount of 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, reflecting a 30.2% increase, while the number of items purchased grew by 14.6% to 3.494 million [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has attracted more travelers, with 311,000 people passing through the Hainan air port, marking a 48.8% year-on-year increase [2]

集中开工热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 3 期） 本报告导读： 消费与科技领域政策协同加码，基建和房建建设进度较快，生产偏强。 投资要点： | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23219820 S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：消费者信心持续修复 2026.01.11 开年经济温和回暖 2026.01.11 元旦"微度假"热度高 2026.01.04 地缘风险再起，国际油价或迎剧烈波动 2026.01.04 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | ...

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully completed its first month of operation under the policy framework of "open on the first line, controlled on the second line, and free within the island" [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The total amount of duty-free shopping in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.2% [3] - A total of 3.494 million items were purchased, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [3] Group 2: Trade and Customs - Customs supervision recorded 750 million yuan in "zero tariff" imports during the first month [6] - The value of goods exported to the mainland under the processing and value-added duty-free policy was 85.867 million yuan [6] - The number of inbound and outbound passengers at Hainan's air ports reached 311,000, showing a year-on-year increase of 48.8% [6] Group 3: Business Development - Over 5,000 new foreign trade enterprises were registered in Hainan during the first month of the Free Trade Port's operation [1]

1月16日，广州召开2026年全市商务工作会议。会议全面总结了2025年商务工作情况，部署2026年工作 安排。同时，系统回顾"十四五"时期广州商务发展成绩，明确"十五五"时期商务发展思路。 "十四五"期间，广州多项指标领跑全国，进出口总额五年增长约30%，跨境电商进口规模连续10年居全 国第一，服务贸易、数字贸易快速增长。 "十五五"期间，广州将聚力打造国际消费中心、国际贸易中心、国际会展中心、国际产业链供应链中 心。2026年作为开局之年，广州将全力促消费稳外贸稳外资，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 "十四五"成绩单 2025年工作回顾 主中头彻商品网上零售额超 3100亿元 增长 10.2% 全市首家市内免税店落地 离境退税门店增至1620家 离境退税业务量超9.1万份 增长9.3倍 实际外资 251.9亿元 增长9.1% 持续激发消费活力 创新推出"羊城消费新八景"IP 举办国际购物节、精品美食周等 主题活动超 2000场 消费品以旧换新、"广东优品购" 带动销售超 900亿元 惠及居民超 910万人次 荔湾太古里、番禺K11等 一批高端商业载体落地 新增两条省级特色商圈(步行街) 引入高能级首店近4 ...

Group 1 - China Aviation Engine Group's "Taihang Three Brothers" has completed evaluation and acceptance, marking a significant breakthrough in gas turbine R&D and technology, which will strongly promote the industrialization and commercialization of the gas turbine industry in China [1][1][1] - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans will be adjusted to no less than 30%, aiming to support a new model for real estate development [1][1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the management measures for high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises, including technology-based SMEs in the cultivation scope, which will be implemented from April 1, 2026 [1][1] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption will exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5%, which is unprecedented for a single country [1][1][1] - In 2025, the foreign trade import and export volume of Yiwu, Zhejiang, is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan, reaching 836.5 billion yuan, with imports hitting 105.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3% [1][1] - In 2025, Shanxi's renewable energy generation is projected to reach 118 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 26%, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of approximately 35 million households [1][1]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shanghai's foreign trade import and export value reached 4.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports at 2.02 trillion yuan, up 10.8%, and imports at 2.49 trillion yuan, up 1.8%, all hitting historical highs [1] - Shanghai's exports demonstrated resilience, maintaining a stable growth rate of around 10% each quarter, indicating strong export momentum [1] - The city experienced growth in trade with 167 countries and regions, particularly with emerging markets like Africa, India, and ASEAN, which saw double-digit growth [1] Trade Dynamics - The "billion-level trade partner club" expanded to 49 members, reflecting a broadening of trade relationships [1] - New foreign trade formats, such as cross-border e-commerce and bonded maintenance, are thriving and contributing to trade structure optimization [1] High-end Manufacturing - Exports of high-end manufacturing products, referred to as the "new three samples," rose to 156.67 billion yuan, with electric vehicle exports surpassing 100 billion yuan and hybrid vehicle exports increasing by nearly 1.5 times [1] - Leading industries showed significant export growth, with high-end machine tool exports up nearly 30%, industrial robot exports exceeding 40%, and surgical robot exports experiencing explosive growth of 3.7 times, indicating a shift towards "Shanghai Intelligent Manufacturing" [1] Special Supervision Zones - The ten special supervision zones in Shanghai collectively achieved an import and export value of 1.87 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.4%, accounting for over 40% of the city's total trade [2] - The Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone surpassed 1 trillion yuan in import and export scale, maintaining its position as the leading special supervision zone in the country [2] - The Yangshan Comprehensive Bonded Zone experienced rapid growth in trade, with an increase of 58.3% [2]

Group 1 - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales will both exceed 34 million units, setting a new historical high and maintaining the position as the world's largest for 17 consecutive years [4] - The foreign exchange market transaction volume in China will reach 42.6 trillion USD in 2025, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both marking historical highs [7] - The number of inbound and outbound personnel through the Zhuhai Port of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge will exceed 31 million, with over 6.8 million vehicles, and the import and export value through the bridge will surpass 300 billion CNY [9] Group 2 - The inter-provincial electricity transaction volume in the State Grid's operating area will reach 1.67 trillion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%, with the transaction scale hitting a historical high [11]

本报讯 （记者 王菲菲） 1月16日，记者从"'十四五'发展成就"系列主题新闻发布会省外贸经济工作专场 获悉，"十四五"以来，全省外贸通道建设取得长足发展，西向、南向、东向通道进一步畅通，"青货出 海"通道布局持续优化。 航空口岸功能不断优化，"十四五"时期，自2023年恢复国际航班以来，全省进出境航班290架次，进出 境旅客3.7万余人，通过航空运输出口的货运量达8599.8吨，较"十三五"时期增长32.8%。2025年全省进 出境航班165架次、进出境旅客20066人，同比增长71.9%、53.6%。通过"腹舱带货"出口同比增长17 倍。 青藏高原第一个海关特殊监管区域——西宁综合保税区于2022年1月封关运营，填补了青海省海关特殊 监管区域的空白，为青海外贸发展注入了新活力。西宁、海东跨境电商试验区稳步发展，全省首个跨境 电商、外贸综合服务平台建成运行，开展跨境电商业务的企业增至33家，较"十三五"时期增加31家，企 业通过海关跨境电商平台的进出口14亿元，年均增长34.1%。 ...