2025 年 5 月 22 日 宏观经济 关税冲击、内需缓冲与政策应对 宏观深度 财信研究院 宏观团队 三、政策应对：建议增加万亿财政储备政策、发挥股市楼市财富效应、加快服务业 供给侧改革。基于前两部分的测算结果，预计 2025 年国内经济可能仍存在 0.4 个百分 点以上的增长缺口，需约 8000 亿元的财政增量资金予以对冲，这是其一。其二是应进 一步加大力度稳股市楼市，充分发挥其财富效应。在当前形势下，虽然畅通国内大循环 无法长期依赖股市楼市财富效应，但在预期难以扭转且需求不足背景下，不充分发挥股 市楼市财富效应国内大循环很难畅通起来。股市楼市财富效应是激活"收入增长—消费 需求增加—物价回升—企业利润提高—经济增长—收入增长"这一循环的有效手段，同 时也是打破经济面临的"扩大消费需求需要有收入、增加收入需要经济增长、经济增长 需要需求增加"这种类似"先有鸡还是先有蛋"无解循环的重要突破口。其三是服务消 费占比高，但供给严重不足，需放宽市场准入释放巨大潜能。 目录 | 一、关税冲击：或导致 下降 0. 6-1.4 个百分点 | GDP | | | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The recent pause in tariffs between China and the U.S. has created a valuable "foreign trade window" for businesses, leading to a surge in demand for shipping and logistics services [1][10][12] - Companies are experiencing a significant increase in orders, with some reporting a 30% rise in order volume since the trade talks [11][19] - The logistics and shipping sectors are particularly busy, with container bookings from China to the U.S. increasing by nearly 300% in a recent week [4][10] Shipping and Logistics - Shipping companies are adjusting their capacities to meet the rising demand, with some reporting a doubling of bookings for freight from China to the U.S. [1][4] - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is experiencing a busy period, with a reported throughput of 998,000 standard containers in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [4][19] - Freight rates for shipping to the U.S. have surged, with costs for the West Coast reaching approximately $6,000 per standard container and the East Coast around $7,000, both doubling from earlier this year [6][8] Export Trends - U.S. retailers are actively seeking to replenish inventory ahead of the holiday season, with a notable increase in inquiries for products from China [10][11] - Various sectors, including toys, clothing, and food products, are seeing a rise in orders as businesses aim to capitalize on the temporary tariff relief [10][11] - Companies are reporting tight shipping space, with some logistics firms experiencing a backlog in shipping requests [6][10] Market Sentiment - Many Chinese exporters are optimistic about the U.S. market, with expectations of continued demand despite the uncertainty surrounding future tariffs [15][19] - The sentiment among exporters is that the trade relationship will improve, as both sides recognize the mutual benefits of trade [15][20] - Companies are exploring new markets and diversifying their export strategies to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [19][20]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of AI on the foreign trade industry, showcasing how AI can facilitate significant transactions and streamline operations [1][3][17] Group 1: AI's Role in Foreign Trade - AI has enabled a $20 million order to be secured without human intervention, demonstrating its efficiency in handling customer inquiries and transactions [1][3] - The use of AI digital assistants allows businesses to overcome traditional barriers such as language, time zones, and cultural differences, significantly improving customer engagement [3][4][20] - AI-driven systems have increased email open rates to 70% and tripled inquiry conversion rates compared to traditional methods [8][10] Group 2: Challenges in Traditional Foreign Trade - Traditional foreign trade is fraught with challenges including language barriers, high customer acquisition costs, and complex logistics, which have historically made it a difficult endeavor [4][6] - The reliance on human experience for decision-making in foreign trade has led to inefficiencies and risks, such as inventory mismanagement [6][13] Group 3: Efficiency Gains from AI - AI enhances operational efficiency by automating repetitive tasks, allowing human workers to focus on higher-value activities [7][8] - The cost of producing marketing content has decreased by over 99.5% due to AI, enabling faster and more cost-effective product promotion [12] - AI systems can analyze vast amounts of data to provide insights for better decision-making, improving the accuracy of inventory and production planning [15][21] Group 4: The Future of Foreign Trade with AI - The integration of AI in foreign trade is not a replacement for human expertise but rather a tool that amplifies traditional strengths, emphasizing the need for skilled professionals who understand both trade and AI [18][21] - Building long-term relationships and trust remains crucial in foreign trade, as AI cannot replace the human element in business interactions [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of helping foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales and effectively implement policies to benefit a broader range of foreign trade companies [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Commerce will focus on accelerating and enhancing efforts to strengthen domestic circulation and expand high-level opening-up to respond to uncertainties with high-quality development [1] - There is a commitment to integrate domestic and foreign trade, assisting enterprises in effectively coping with external shocks [1] Group 2: Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - Active measures will be taken to help foreign trade enterprises tap into domestic markets, including organizing events like "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" to connect associations, supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, and foreign trade companies for procurement [1] - The initiative aims to encourage more foreign trade enterprises in sectors such as automobiles, home appliances, and home decoration to participate in "old-for-new" exchange programs [1] Group 3: Market Capability Enhancement - The Ministry plans to deepen the integration of domestic and foreign trade pilot programs to enhance the operational capabilities of enterprises in both markets, better preparing them to face external risks and challenges [1]

做外贸一定要学会的客户分类，你了解吗？今天分享9种客户分类方法。 一、9种客户分类方法 1.按客户贡献利润情况 A类客户：占客户总数的5%～15％左右，其创造的利润却占企业全部利润的60％～80％左右。 B类客户：占20％～30％左右，其创造的利润大致为总利润的20％～30％左右。 C类客户：占60％～80％左右，而其创造的利润只占 5％～15％左右。 3.按产品线或产品应用分类 这也是很多公司习惯的一种划分方法。比如一个母婴用品公司，首先就会把客户分为女性和婴儿，这对应的产品线是完全不同的。再细分一下，又会按照产 品的用途进行分类。 2.按照地理区域划分 北美客户、南美客户、东欧客户、西欧客户、南亚客户、东南亚客户、中东客户、非洲客户等。 4.按照客户询盘来源 展会客户、B2B平台客户、邮件开发客户、主动找上门客户等。 5.按照购买成交情况 5星-复购客户：长期合作的客户。 4星-订单客户：首次合作的客户。 3星-样单客户：在犹豫的客户。 2星-重潜客户：巨头、连锁等想要合作的客户。 1星-普潜客户：有可能成单的客户。 0星-无潜客户：没有合作可能的客户。 | 0星:无潜客户(永不回乡 | | --- | ...

习近平总书记指出，经济体量大，向前发展就需要更大的推动力。江苏是民营经济大省，在江苏推动高 质量发展的奋斗历程中，民营经济始终是重要支撑力量。这就要求我们以"先行先试"的改革魄力和"内 外兼修"的系统思维，落实法律赋予民营企业的权利，激发民企发展动能，在破除体制机制障碍、激发 创新活力、拓展开放空间中推动民营经济高质量发展。 抓落地见效，需要以系统思维优化服务保障，引导民营企业服务大局。一方面，以改革创新增发展动 能，打造自主可控的产业体系。创新是引领发展的第一动力，我们要用好"揭榜挂帅"机制，加大改革创 新力度，将民营经济纳入"卡脖子"技术攻关主阵地。针对制造业民企"融资难"的结构性矛盾，应将法律 允许的"容错免责"等探索方向，尽快转化为一线金融工作者的创新实践。另一方面，以内外兼修拓开放 空间，培育国际竞争新优势。建设具有世界聚合力的双向开放枢纽，我们需引导民企在开放型经济 中"强筋骨"。比如，针对外贸形势的变化，在民企出海一站式服务等方面持续细化服务内容、扩大服务 覆盖面，让更多民营企业获得有力支持。 5月20日，《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》(以下简称"促进法")正式施行。这部法是我国首次将"两 个 ...

今年前4个月 江苏省对共建"一带一路"国家进出口9033.7亿元，同比增长9.6% 浙江省对东盟、拉美、中东等新兴市场分别出口1802.8亿元、1450.6亿元和1230.1亿元，分别同比增长 9.2%、21.5%和10.4% 太仓港集装箱码头 上海出口6290亿元，同比增长约13.7% 安徽省对欧盟进出口383.9亿元，同比增长17.4%；对东盟进出口379.2亿元，同比增长31.3% 江苏省对共建"一带一路"国家进出口9033.7亿元，同比增长9.6% 浙江省对东盟、拉美、中东等新兴市场分别出口1802.8亿元、1450.6亿元和1230.1亿元，分别同比增长 9.2%、21.5%和10.4% 上海出口6290亿元，同比增长约13.7% 安徽省对欧盟进出口383.9亿元，同比增长17.4%；对东盟进出口379.2亿元，同比增长31.3% ◎记者 操子怡 今年1月至4月，浙江省外贸进出口1.75万亿元，同比增长6.6%。浙江积极开拓新兴市场，前4月，全省 对欧盟、东盟、拉美等主要市场分别进出口2627.8亿元、2594.8亿元和1814.7亿元，分别同比增长 10.3%、10.9%和4.8%。 上海证券报记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 137th Canton Fair emphasizes China's commitment to openness and shared development opportunities amidst global trade barriers and unilateralism, showcasing resilience in foreign trade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Responding to Global Trade Challenges - The Canton Fair reflects China's strategy of openness in response to global trade challenges, particularly high tariffs, by promoting collaboration and stability in the economic order [3][4]. - The forum activities focus on key global issues such as economic growth, international logistics, and digital trade transformation, aiming to maintain stable global supply chains [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Reports - The forum released 11 significant reports, including the "China Foreign Trade Logistics Development Report" and "China Cross-Border E-Commerce B2B Export Development Report 2025," providing strategic guidance for foreign trade [7][8]. - These reports cover various dimensions such as foreign trade logistics, digital trade, and business environment trends, assisting enterprises in navigating complex international markets [8]. Group 3: Financial Support for Trade - Collaborative efforts between government, enterprises, and financial institutions resulted in initiatives like the "China Bank Guangdong Branch Support for Stable Foreign Trade Growth Action Plan," addressing urgent needs of foreign trade enterprises [9]. Group 4: Forum Effectiveness - The forum's integration of experts from government, academia, and industry leaders highlights the "Canton Fair+" effect, enhancing the overall impact of the event [10][11]. - Approximately 2,600 attendees participated in the forum activities, with a satisfaction rate exceeding 90%, indicating strong engagement and relevance [11]. Group 5: Media Influence and Public Engagement - The forum garnered extensive media coverage, enhancing the visibility and reputation of the Canton Fair, with participation from over 100 media outlets [14][15]. - Key industry figures and experts shared insights on high tariffs and strategies for enterprises, contributing to a broader discourse on foreign trade challenges [14][15].

Group 1 - The foreign trade industry is experiencing renewed vitality with inventory clearance, resumption of new order negotiations, and increased cross-border logistics activity [1] - Foreign trade enterprises are cautious due to raw material price fluctuations and long-term policy uncertainties, preparing for potential challenges ahead [1] Group 2 - Shanghai is actively promoting the "export to domestic sales" initiative, with various districts responding to support foreign trade enterprises in tapping into the domestic market [2][4] - Supermarkets and large e-commerce platforms in Shanghai have launched "foreign trade to domestic sales zones" to facilitate this transition [2] Group 3 - The "foreign trade to domestic sales zone" at the Global Harbor in Shanghai has seen significant success, with over 100,000 orders in just 21 days, indicating strong domestic market potential [2][4] - Companies are adapting their strategies, such as a shoe brand shifting focus to domestic sales and exploring new markets in Europe [4] Group 4 - The Longzhimeng City Life Center in Changning District has introduced a "foreign trade quality goods market," showcasing various products at factory-direct prices [7] - The event aims to enhance brand visibility and sales for participating foreign trade enterprises while providing consumers with affordable options [11] Group 5 - The Shanghai Municipal Commerce Commission is facilitating connections between foreign trade enterprises and domestic market resources through multiple initiatives [13] - E-commerce platforms are offering support for foreign trade enterprises, including zero-commission policies and expedited onboarding processes [14] Group 6 - Challenges faced by foreign trade enterprises in transitioning to domestic sales include insufficient personnel, mismatched products, and supply chain limitations [15][16] - E-commerce platforms are positioned to assist foreign trade enterprises by leveraging their supply chain capabilities and digital tools to enhance market entry [16]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a phase of rotation among different sectors, with banks showing a distinct pattern of fluctuation compared to other stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Behavior - The index has shown a slight increase of around 8 to 9 points, but individual stock performances vary significantly, indicating a non-symmetrical transition between bank stocks and others [1]. - Recent market activity has seen a shift from sectors like ports, military, and foreign trade to others such as precious metals, batteries, and coal mining, suggesting a gradual integration process that may lead to a new market trend [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on individual stocks rather than the overall index, emphasizing the importance of stock selection over index fluctuations and trading volume [2]. - The current upward trend in short to medium-term moving averages suggests a higher probability of continued growth, although minor adjustments may occur in the near term [3]. - Investors are advised to identify and act on key market events and trends, employing a trial-and-error approach to buying, particularly in sectors showing potential, such as solid-state batteries [3].