1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The reinstatement of Trump's tariff policy exposes the hidden concerns of the US economic governance coordination, and is not good news for the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange assets [5]. - Glass is currently weak in the short - term, and the key lies in the weak demand and continuous pressure of warehouse receipt pricing. Future improvement depends on the recovery of glass demand [6][7]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are supported by the peak demand season. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil may continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - The shipment of asphalt is slowing down, and it is weak in the near - end. The main contradiction lies in the demand, especially in the South due to the approaching rainy season [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a state of oscillating decline, and silver follows the downward trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [14][18][22]. 3.1.2 Copper - The decrease in copper inventory supports its price, and the trend intensity is 0. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus [24][26]. 3.1.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound oscillation, and alumina is significantly supported by costs. The trend intensities of both are 0 [27][29]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure above, and the trend intensity is 0 [30][31]. 3.1.5 Lead - Lead is in range - bound oscillation, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][34]. 3.1.6 Tin - Tin breaks below the oscillation range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [36][39]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is supported by short - term costs, but weak expectations limit its elasticity. Stainless steel has an increasing marginal reduction in production due to negative feedback and is difficult to fall deeply. The trend intensities of both are 0 [40][41][46]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - The de - stocking speed of carbonate lithium is slow, and its trend may remain weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [48][50]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon hits a new low on the disk, and polysilicon has amplified fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [14][51][53]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Iron Ore - The downstream demand for iron ore has reached a phased peak, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is - 1 [54]. 3.3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation with negative feedback expectations leading. The trend intensities of both are 0 [57][58][60]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a weak oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [62][65]. 3.3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke has completed the second round of price cuts and is in bottom - bound oscillation. Coking coal is also in bottom - bound oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [66][68]. 3.3.5 Thermal Coal - The inventory of thermal coal mines is increasing, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [69][71]. 3.4 Others 3.4.1 Logs - Logs are in repeated oscillations [72].

Group 1 - Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound made in February [1] - The organization expressed cautious optimism regarding copper price prospects, acknowledging tighter global supply conditions than previously expected and strong demand fundamentals [1] - The recent agreement between the US and China to reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has significantly alleviated trade barriers, improving global trade confidence [1] Group 2 - Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals, the largest copper producers, reported increased production in the first quarter, with Codelco's output rising by 5.2% in April [1] - Despite the increase in domestic production, global supply growth is expected to be much lower than previously anticipated, with a revised forecast of 1.3% growth this year, down from 4.7% [1] - Cochilco predicts a 3% increase in Chile's copper production this year and a continued 3% increase in 2026, reaching 5.84 million tons [2]

金十期货5月28日讯，据外媒报道，智利矿业部长Aurora Williams表示，智利国家铜业委员会 （Cochilco）将2025年铜价预估上调至每磅4.30美元，因称在中美暂时达成关税协议后，全球前景改 善。Cochilco还将2026年铜均价预估上调至每磅4.30美元。2月报告中对两年的均价预估都为4.25美元。 另外，Cochilco预测今年智利铜产量将增加3%，2026年将继续增加3%，届时将触及584万吨。产量指导 较Cochilco的2月预测下滑，2月预测2025年产量增速为4.6%，2026年增速为3.6%。 智利Cochilco上调铜价预估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group plans to spin off its overseas gold mining assets into a separate entity, Zijin Gold International, for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its international market presence and capitalize on the rising gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Spin-off Details - The spin-off will involve eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania, which will be integrated into Zijin Gold International [1][2]. - The total resource amount of the spun-off assets is 1,799.79 tons, with a total reserve of 696.83 tons, and an expected production of 46.22 tons in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 78.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.55%, and a net profit of approximately 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.39% [1][4]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 12.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 53.33% increase year-on-year [1][5]. Group 3: Production Growth - The company plans to expand its gold production capacity to 85 tons by 2025, representing a 16% increase, and aims for a further increase to 100-110 tons by 2028 [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, gold production increased by 13.45%, while copper production rose by 9.49% compared to the previous year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with an operating range of approximately 75,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and month - to - month spreads, downstream procurement is cautious, and inventory may still increase slightly. With the release of some delivery goods this week, it is difficult to maintain high premiums [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On May 22, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,010 yuan/ton and closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 77,730 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - On May 22, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a premium of 110 - 160 yuan/ton to the current 2506 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - priced goods had good trading volume. Currently, low - priced goods have been mostly purchased, and warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, but warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. The premium is expected to have limited upward movement [2] 1.3 Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives and is to be reviewed by the Senate. The US Senate voted to terminate California's ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decrease, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Iran vowed to respond "devastatingly" to any Israeli aggression [3] - **Domestic**: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on May 23 [3] - **Mine End**: NGEx Minerals announced a new discovery in the Lunahuasi copper - gold project in Argentina, with high - grade copper - gold porphyry systems. Solaris Resources and Royal Gold reached a 200 million - dollar financing agreement for the Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March, the production was 7.2832 million tons, consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and downstream consumption had limited improvement. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,925 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [5] 2. Tables and Figures - The report provides 10 figures and 1 table, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium quotes, price differences between refined and scrap copper, copper import profits and losses, and various inventory data [8] 3. Spot and Warehouse Receipt Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [29][30]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.22） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77000-78700 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 供给方面，智利铜矿巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）与冶炼厂的年中谈判可能以 0 加工费（TC/RCs）为起点。艾芬豪宣布，目前该矿铜资源总量为 937 万吨，较 2023 年 11 月估算的 500 万吨增长 89%。中国 2025 年 4 月精炼铜（电解铜）产量为 125.4 万吨，同比 增加 9%；1-4 月累计产量为 478.1 万吨，同比增加 5.6%。中国 4 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量 为 292.44 万吨，比上升 22.20%，同比增长 25.62%。尽管 4 月有冶炼厂有检修计划， 但华东新厂投产西南某厂提产，炼厂废铜、阳极板储备充足，硫酸价格仍 处高位弥补亏损，以及港口铜精矿库存增加支撑生产，使得 4 月铜产量环 比小增。进入 5 月，SMM 统计，有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，但 4 月检修 的冶炼厂恢复正常生产，复产的量甚至要多于检修影响量。此外，由于目 前港 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜震荡偏强，主力合约重回牛熊线上方，日内主要是受到美元走弱和最大消费 国中国出台刺激措施带来支撑，不过国内期现价差受到进口货源以及仓单流出冲 击，现货升水坍塌，日内现货升水跌 115 至 275，盘面近月价差降至 290，现货进 口亏损扩大至 450 附近，海外库存延续 LME 下降而 COMEX 增加，总库存依旧在 32 万吨附近，短期内外现货市场转宽松对铜价的支撑有所弱化。不过近期市场在传 闻年中冶炼厂加工费谈判，从目前消息来看下半年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,140 | 0.35% | 77670 | -0.60% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,440 | -1.67% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 72,311 | -37,865 | 180,490 | -6,084 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 7,610 | 1,376 | 294,000 | -171 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 63,247 | 2,712 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 179,375 | -5,275 | 40.08% | -1 ...