泛太平洋铜业公司(Pan Pacific Copper)和伦丁矿业公司已同意，明年将把把铜矿石加工成金属的加工费 用大致维持不变。据知情人士透露，2026年商业条款的展期协议包括冶炼费用（即加工精炼费用）保持 不变。该协议表明了一种趋势：随着全球冶炼行业陷入更深层次的危机，矿商正在向关键的长期客户做 出商业让步。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US and Eurozone Economic Situations**: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - **Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast**: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - **Growth Rate Forecast**: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - **Domestic Production and Reduction Plan**: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - **Overseas Capacity Release**: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - **Import Volume Forecast**: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - **Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling**: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - **Grid Investment**: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - **Air - Conditioning Industry**: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - **AI Data Centers**: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - **Overall Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors**: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - **Price Forecast**: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights an impending global copper crisis triggered by the shutdown of key copper smelting facilities by Glencore, which could significantly impact future technological advancements and economic stability due to copper's essential role in various industries [4][5][34]. Supply Side - Glencore's decision to close its two major copper smelting plants in Canada is a critical signal of a broader supply crisis in the copper industry, marking the collapse of a 30-year supply-demand balance [10][11]. - The copper smelting industry is facing unprecedented pressure due to a severe shortage of copper concentrate, leading to negative processing fees (TC/RC), indicating that smelters are losing money just to keep operations running [12][34]. - Environmental regulations and the high costs of modernizing aging smelting facilities are further complicating the supply situation, making it economically unfeasible for companies to continue operations under current conditions [13][28]. Demand Side - The demand for copper is driven by three major engines: the transition to green energy, the AI revolution, and the global upgrade of electrical grids, all of which are creating a structural and irreversible increase in copper consumption [15][24]. - Electric vehicles (EVs) require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles, with each EV using 4 to 6 times more copper, contributing to the rising demand [16][20]. - AI data centers are emerging as new growth areas for copper consumption, necessitating extensive electrical infrastructure and cooling systems that rely heavily on copper [19][20]. Structural Challenges - The copper supply chain is constrained by geological limits, with declining ore grades in major producing countries like Chile, leading to increased extraction costs and environmental pressures [28][29]. - The long investment cycle in mining means that even with high copper prices, new production cannot be brought online quickly enough to meet demand, creating a significant supply gap [31]. - Geopolitical risks in major copper-producing countries are rising, with resource nationalism leading to stricter regulations and potential disruptions in supply [32][34]. Strategic Responses - To address the looming copper crisis, China must adopt a dual strategy of expanding overseas resource acquisition while simultaneously developing a domestic recycling system for copper [43][48]. - The focus on recycling and urban mining can help mitigate reliance on imported copper, as China has a substantial stock of waste copper that can be repurposed [48][49]. - Establishing a robust overseas presence in resource-rich but politically stable regions is essential for securing copper supplies and reducing vulnerability to geopolitical risks [44][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by short-term supply disruptions, policy interventions, and the financialization of commodities, rather than a fundamental shift in global copper supply and demand dynamics [1][2][4] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price recently reached a historical high of $11,461 per ton, while domestic copper futures in China surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a significant increase in market sentiment and capital inflow, with domestic copper futures' capital exceeding 50 billion yuan [1] - Supply disruptions from major copper mines, including incidents in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have led to a year-on-year decline in global copper production, exacerbating market fears [1][2] Group 2 - Despite rising prices, the global copper market is not expected to experience a fundamental supply-demand gap, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicting a slight surplus of 17,800 tons in 2025, transitioning to a shortfall of 15,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The increase in copper prices has been significantly influenced by speculative trading and expectations surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which have led to a regional supply-demand mismatch rather than a global shortage [2][3] - Emerging sectors such as AI data centers, renewable energy grids, and electric vehicles are anticipated to drive copper demand; however, the current growth in these areas is insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors, and high copper prices are accelerating the substitution of copper with aluminum [3][4] Group 3 - The global copper market is characterized by a phase of "short-term turbulence and long-term transformation," with structural issues such as insufficient mining investment and geopolitical factors threatening supply chain stability [4] - Future copper price trends will depend on three key variables: U.S. tariff policies, the actual realization of demand from AI and energy transitions, and the effective release of additional capacity through adjustments in global smelting and resource exploration investments [4] - The ongoing discussion of copper as the "new oil" highlights the need for a long-term transformation in the global copper supply-demand landscape, which is expected to take time to materialize [4]

截至2025年12月5日当周，沪铜期货主力合约收于92780元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持18237手。 本周(12月1日-12月5日)市场上看，沪铜期货周内开盘报87630元/吨，最高触及92910元/吨，最低下探至87530元/吨，周度涨跌幅达6.39%。 消息面回顾： 2025年12月第4周，共计19个工作日，巴西累计装出铜矿石和铜精矿4.96万吨，去年12月为18.86万吨。日均装运量为0.26万吨/日，较去年12月的 0.99万吨/日减少73.7%。 力拓上调了2025年铜产量预期，预计将比此前估算高出3%。2025年铜产量预计为86万至87.5万吨(此前为78-85万吨)，2026年预计为80万至87万 吨。目标是到2030年实现年产100万吨。 中辉期货：美国ADP就业数据大幅不及预期，LME铜库存注销仓单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧，国内淡季去库，伦铜和沪铜创历史新高后，多单积 极止盈兑现，等待回调入场机会，中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下对铜 依旧看好。短期沪铜关注区间【89000，92000】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【11000，1 ...

供应端的"伤筋动骨"，让全球铜市场瞬间紧张起来。原本就有限的铜资源变得更加稀缺，各国买家们开始四处奔走，试图抢购有限的铜资源，这就如同在干 旱的沙漠里，人们为了争夺最后一滴水而争得头破血流。而这场供应端的危机，只是铜价狂飙的开场大戏，后续的剧情更加精彩。 贸易端：关税阴影下的"疯狂大转移" 近期，国际铜价宛如坐上了火箭，一路狂飙突进，当地时间12月3日，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及每吨11540美元的历史高位，将历史纪录狠狠踩在 脚下。这看似简单的价格波动，背后却隐藏着一场可能席卷全球经济的巨大风暴，各方势力在这场铜价风云中暗流涌动，搞出了一场又一场令人瞠目结舌 的"大事情"。 供应端：天灾人祸齐上阵，铜矿"伤筋动骨" 全球铜供应本就处于一种微妙的平衡状态，可偏偏这时候，智利矿山坍塌事故如同一颗重磅炸弹，将这脆弱的平衡炸得粉碎。智利，这个全球铜矿的"超级 大户"，其矿山的一举一动都牵动着全球铜市场的神经。此次坍塌事故，让全球矿业与大宗商品巨头嘉能可损失惨重。嘉能可无奈宣布下调今年铜产能至85 万到87.5万吨，与2018年相比，产量减少了近4成，这就像是在全球铜供应的大水池里突然抽走了一大桶水。而且，该公 ...

12月5日（周五），一名秘鲁高级外交官表示，印度企业集团阿达尼（Adani）和印度铝业公司 （Hindalco Industries）正在探索在秘鲁铜行业的投资，可能是通过合资企业，也可能是参股现有矿山。 "目前处于初始阶段，他们正在努力寻找机会，"他说道，这里他所指的是Adani和Hindalco。 秘鲁是全球第三大铜生产国，铜用于电力线路、建筑和制造业等行业。在与印度谈判一项更广泛的自由 贸易协定之际，该国正在吸引新的投资。 印度在截至2025年3月的财政年度里铜进口量增长了4%，至120万吨。政府表示，到2030年需求料攀升 至300万-330万吨，到2047年料达到890万-980万吨。 "Birla （Hindalco）和Adani正试图在秘鲁投资。我们愿意提供便利，"秘鲁驻印度大使Javier Paulinich在 新德里表示。 秘鲁在2024年生产了约270万吨铜，该行业吸引了49.6亿美元的外国投资。 印度是全球增长最快的主要经济体。根据印度政府7月份发布的一份政策文件，预计需求激增和潜在的 供应短缺，印度已敦促该国的矿业公司投资海外，以确保铜供应链的安全，并应对可能出现的供应中 断。 印度是 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - In the context of negative year - on - year PPI in China, the month - on - month PPI of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has significantly rebounded, and the year - on - year growth has remained positive. The operating income of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to October increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 14.0% year - on - year, which strongly supports the copper price. It is expected that the Shanghai copper futures price will face resistance at 90,000 yuan this week, and the volatility may increase [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2601 was 90,960 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous night - session closing price. The night - session closing price of the second - main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 90,980 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.22%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGZ25E was 5.2795 US dollars/pound (converted to yuan/ton), down 0.54% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 8,227.7 US dollars/ton (converted to yuan/ton), with a decline of 0.13% [1] Important News - Ivanhoe Mines expects the annual output of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to be between 380,000 and 420,000 tons in 2026, and it will increase by about 30% in 2027, reaching between 500,000 and 540,000 tons [1] - Glencore has lowered its 2026 copper production forecast from 930,000 tons to a range of 810,000 - 870,000 tons, mainly due to operational setbacks at the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile [1] - On December 3, Vale (VALE.N) expects its copper production to be 350,000 tons in 2026, and its copper production in 2025 was about 380,000 tons [1] - On December 3, Vale's subsidiary Vale Base Metals has signed an agreement with Glencore to jointly evaluate a brownfield copper mining development project in adjacent mining areas in the Sudbury Basin, Canada [1] - On December 2, a CICC research report stated that the consumables for AI electroplated copper powder in PCB are in a prosperous cycle, which will drive the rapid growth of processing fee profits in the copper powder industry. Copper balls and copper powder are electroplating consumables, accounting for 6% and 13% of the PCB cost respectively [1] - On December 2, Ivanhoe Mines officially launched the smelter of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine, the largest and most environmentally friendly in Africa, and will put the first batch of copper concentrates into the smelter before the end of the year to officially start the production of blister copper anode plates with a purity of 99.7% [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 14 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 14 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 16 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库边际放缓，上方或承压 | 18 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - On December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. It is expected that the medium - and long - term monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - The macro - environment for the black sector is generally positive, but the black market has no conditions for a trending rise. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and coking coal's far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank's Monetary Operations - On December 4, the central bank announced that on December 5, it would conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 3 - month (91 - day) term. Since 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase is due in December, it means an equal - amount roll - over. It is also expected that the central bank will conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this month, with a high possibility of an increased - amount roll - over. The central bank has basically formed a medium - and long - term capital injection model [8]. Black Sector - **Overall situation**: The fundamentals of the black sector are mediocre, waiting for macro - drivers. The macro environment is generally positive, but steel inventories are high, demand weakens seasonally, and the black industry chain is in a stage of production cut and inventory reduction [10]. - **Iron ore**: The profitability of steel mills has been continuously compressed, and iron ore's rigid demand has decreased. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, but there is demand for winter stockpiling by steel mills, so short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coking coal**: The settlement price of the coking coal 2512 futures contract is 969.5 yuan/ton, at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the spot. The far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Commodity Futures - **Precious metals**: Gold's expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, and silver has fluctuated downward. The trend intensity of both is 1 [13][16][19]. - **Base metals**: - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][21][23]. - **Zinc**: Supply has been cut, and prices are on the strong side, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][24][26]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][27][28]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][30][32]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are resilient; alumina continues to decline; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities are 1, - 1, and 1 respectively [13][33][35]. - **Platinum and palladium**: Platinum trades thinly and fluctuates sideways; palladium consolidates sideways. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel's fundamentals limit its upward potential and it fluctuates at a low level; stainless steel has high inventories, weak supply and demand, and cost limits its downward potential. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][40][44]. - **Energy and chemical products**: - **Carbonate lithium**: The marginal slowdown of inventory reduction may put pressure on the upper side, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][49][52]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][50][52]. - **Iron ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][53]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][56][59]. - **Silicon iron and manganese silicon**: Silicon iron's electricity cost has risen, and it fluctuates strongly; manganese silicon's ore - end quotation is firm, and it also fluctuates strongly. The trend intensities of both are 1 [13][61][65]. - **Coke and coking coal**: They fluctuate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [13][66][67]. - **Log**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][68][71]. - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is supported by cost and fluctuates at a high level; PTA fluctuates at a high level unilaterally; MEG's price hits a new low and trends weakly. The trend intensities are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [13][72][77]. - **Rubber and synthetic rubber**: Rubber fluctuates; synthetic rubber fluctuates downward. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][79][85]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates at a low level, and factory inventories have a slight increase, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][86][94]. - **LLDPE**: The basis has declined, and the supply is still loose, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][96][98]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][99][101]. - **Caustic soda**: The trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][103][105]. - **Pulp**: It fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][107][109]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][112][114]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][116][120]. - **Urea**: It gradually enters a fluctuating pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][121][123]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of - 1 [128]. - **LPG and propylene**: LPG's trend is under pressure; propylene's pattern remains loose. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [130][131][135]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [139][140]. - **Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil**: Fuel oil rebounds slightly and may temporarily get out of the weak situation; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens at night, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][142]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][144][157]. - **Agricultural products**: - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip**: They fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][158][159]. - **Offset printing paper**: Long positions should be closed at an appropriate time, with a trend intensity of 0 [160][161]. - **Pure benzene**: It fluctuates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][165][166]. - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Palm oil is waiting for the inflection point to be confirmed and is traded within a range for the time being; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and fluctuates mainly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][168][173]. - **Soybean meal and soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuated; the spot price of soybeans is stable and strong, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][174][176]. - **Corn**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][177][180]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][181][183]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][185][188]. - **Eggs**: Culling continues, and the spot price fluctuates mainly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][191]. - **Hogs**: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic returns, with a trend intensity of - 2 [13][193][196]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][198][200].