Core Viewpoint - Global copper prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by mining accidents, particularly in Indonesia's Grasberg mine, leading to a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - The LME copper futures price has exceeded $10,000 per ton, marking a nearly 13-month high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [1]. - A significant mining accident in Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to a production cut of over 400,000 tons over the next two years, with full recovery not expected until 2027 [1]. - Other countries, including Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have also experienced production reductions due to natural disasters, exacerbating the global copper supply chain issues [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global copper ore grade has been declining for over a decade, increasing extraction difficulty and costs, while recent mining accidents have led to upward revisions in copper price forecasts by major banks [2]. - Global copper production is expected to grow only 0.2% this year, significantly lower than the previously anticipated 0.8% [2]. - Demand for copper is being driven by sectors such as AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy, with electric vehicles requiring three times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles [2]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Analysts predict that the sharp reduction in copper production will support high prices, with copper entering a period of strong demand [3]. - China remains the largest consumer of copper globally, with robust demand driven by investments in power grids and low-carbon transitions [3]. - The future trajectory of copper prices remains uncertain, influenced by supply interruptions, high demand, and potential monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve [3].

Core Viewpoint - Codelco expects a slight rebound in copper production in 2025 and 2026, surpassing 2024 levels, following a significant mining accident in July 2023 [1] Group 1: Production Outlook - Codelco's forecast for 2025 and 2026 production is the first since the fatal collapse at its largest mine [1] - Despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in national copper production in Chile in September, Codelco's moderate production increase is anticipated to alleviate some pressure on soaring copper prices due to global supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Recovery Efforts - The company is focused on recovering from the impacts of the mining accident and is continuing to advance its production automation initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, internal differences within the Fed have increased. Many officials have turned cautious about a December rate cut, and the rebound of the US dollar index has pressured the metal market. There are also concerns about a slowdown in the US economic growth rate in the fourth quarter. In China, the 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development, and the long - term positive momentum of the economy remains unchanged [2][96]. - This year, the global refined ore supply growth rate may be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production has declined month - by - month, while imports have rebounded. In the consumption sector, the traditional industries did not show a peak - season boom in October, but emerging industries, especially data centers, provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Domestic and global inventories have continued to rise [2][96]. - With the long - term government shutdown in the US lacking key data guidance, the Fed's balance of dual risks is challenged again. The market is pricing in a recession expectation for the US economy in the fourth quarter. China's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the high - quality development path, and anti - involution policies are being gradually implemented. The shortage of ore supply is difficult to resolve, domestic refined copper production is declining, and high copper prices are suppressing some traditional terminal consumption. However, strong cost support remains. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96]. Summary by Directory 1. October 2025 Copper Market Review - In October 2025, copper prices showed an overall oscillating upward trend. LME copper rose from a minimum of $10,263 at the beginning of the month to $11,200, and SHFE copper rose from 84,600 to around 89,200. As of October 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly, and the copper market showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic [7]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but Powell's post - meeting statement made the December rate cut uncertain. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts. Overseas, major copper mines had slow resumption of production, and domestic refined copper production declined in the fourth quarter, providing cost support for copper prices. The improvement in macro - sentiment also contributed to the rise in copper prices. However, after copper prices reached new highs, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the traditional peak season was lackluster [7][10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Sino - US Economic and Trade Negotiations Reached a Phased Consensus, and Powell Turned Hawkish After the Fed Rate Cut - Sino - US leaders reached a phased consensus on economic and trade issues in late October. The US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff on China, suspended relevant export control rules, and China suspended relevant counter - measures. This will help reduce bilateral trade costs, boost China's exports, and strengthen the RMB [13]. - The US government shutdown has entered its sixth week, causing an economic loss of $18 billion this year, with the Q4 real GDP growth rate expected to be 1.5% lower than previously forecast. Powell turned hawkish after the October rate cut, and the December rate cut is uncertain due to high inflation and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. However, in the medium - term, the new Fed chairman may adopt a more dovish policy [14]. 2.2 The US Service Industry Showed Weakness, and the Eurozone's Q3 GDP Growth Rate Exceeded Expectations - The US ISM services PMI in October dropped to 50, the lowest since 2020. New orders and business activity declined, and the employment index contracted for four consecutive months. The US economy in the fourth quarter faces downward pressure [15]. - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. France's economy grew by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter, but Germany's economy stagnated. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts in October, and it may continue to cut rates in the future due to the impact of US tariffs. The IMF predicts that the Eurozone's GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [17]. 2.3 The Fourth Plenary Session Focused on High - Quality Development and Implemented the "Artificial Intelligence +" Initiative - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic and social development, including high - quality development, reform and innovation, and meeting people's needs. It also emphasizes principles such as Party leadership, people - centeredness, and high - quality development [18]. - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the top - level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, including basic research, the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, governance, and international cooperation. The plan also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and layout future industries, which will drive economic growth in the next 10 years [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - As of the end of October, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained above - $40/ton, at a relatively low historical level. The resumption of major interrupted mines is slow, and the global copper concentrate supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Some major miners have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year, and concerns about medium - term supply shortages are rising [22][23]. - Glencore's Q3 copper production was 239,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 36.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Its full - year production guidance was lowered to 850,000 - 875,000 tons. Antamina's Q3 equity copper production was 34,500 tons, with a quarterly increase of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Its full - year production guidance is 126,000 - 129,000 tons [24]. - First Quantum's Q3 copper production was 104,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. Its full - year production guidance was slightly lowered to 390,000 - 410,000 tons. Rio Tinto's Q3 copper production was 204,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarterly decrease of 11%. It maintained its full - year production guidance of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [25][27]. 3.2 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 11.1534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In October, domestic production continued to decline due to the shortage of concentrate supply and the reduction of waste copper supply [29]. - Overseas, some smelters faced problems such as production suspension and slow production ramp - up. The actual output increase of overseas refined copper in 2025 is expected to be about 50,000 tons [30]. 3.3 Continuous Recovery of Refined Copper Imports and Stable Waste Copper Imports - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The imports of copper ore and concentrate were 22.6667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The imports of refined copper were 2.537 million tons, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to 4.1%. In September, imports recovered rapidly, but may have declined slightly in October [54]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium continued to fall in October, and the import window was not effectively opened. The total waste copper imports from January to September were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. China will continue to expand waste copper imports from Southeast Asia [54][56]. 3.4 High - level Increase in North American Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since October, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. As of October 31, the total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) was 605,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous month. Domestic copper visible inventories (SHFE + Shanghai bonded area) rose to 222,700 tons, a significant increase of 44,700 tons from the previous month [61][62]. - High copper prices have led to a lackluster peak season in the terminal consumption market, and domestic inventories have continued to rise, dragging the near - month futures structure towards flat water [61][63]. 3.5 Traditional Industries Had a Lackluster Peak Season, and Emerging Industries Showed Strong Development Momentum - In the power grid investment sector, the cumulative growth rate has slowed down. In October, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was less than 70%. The high copper prices have significantly dragged down downstream orders in the power grid investment industry, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in power grid investment will remain at a low level of 2.5% - 3% [67][68]. - In the photovoltaic industry, it is undergoing structural reform. The growth rate of the wind power industry is sluggish, and it is expected that the total copper consumption in the wind and solar industries will decline by about 10% this year [69][72]. - The real estate market has not emerged from the bottom - building cycle, and it is expected that the decline in copper consumption in the real estate sector will exceed 10% this year [73][74]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in new energy vehicles will remain above 25% this year [77][78]. - The global data center market is expected to exceed $230 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10%. It is expected to bring about 1.05 million tons of incremental copper demand by 2026 [79]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed's internal differences have increased after the October rate cut, and the government shutdown has made the December rate cut uncertain. The US dollar index rebound has pressured the metal market, and there are concerns about a US economic recession in Q4. In China, the long - term positive economic trend remains unchanged [2][96]. - Fundamentally, the global refined ore supply growth rate is expected to be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production is declining, while imports are rebounding. Traditional industries had a lackluster peak season in October, but emerging industries provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Inventories are rising [2][96]. - Overall, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96].

Group 1 - The price of copper has declined from its record high due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, with LME three-month copper contracts falling by 1.62% to $10,669.00 per ton [1] - Copper is considered a "barometer" of the global economy, widely used in construction, electricity, and manufacturing. It reached a record high of $11,200 per ton last week, driven by optimistic expectations from US-China trade talks [3] - Supply uncertainties have been a significant driver for recent copper price increases, with major mining companies like Glencore and Anglo American warning of production shortfalls, and Freeport-McMoRan reducing its 2026 production guidance by 35%, equating to a loss of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in copper prices is largely priced in, as market sentiment shifts back to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with a stronger dollar making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with several officials expressing skepticism about the need for further reductions, which has contributed to the uncertainty in the market [6][7] - Current market expectations place the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December at approximately 67%, but economic data gaps and inflation trends are creating a more uncertain policy outlook [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. due to rising gold prices driven by concerns over the US dollar's status, with significant increases in revenue and profit reported for the third quarter of the year [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit of 950 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141% [2]. - Total revenue for the third quarter reached 3.37 billion yuan, up 66.4% year-on-year, while the first three quarters saw revenue of 8.644 billion yuan, a 38.9% increase, and net profit surged 86% to 2.05 billion yuan [2][3]. Gold Sales - The primary revenue source for the company is gold, with gold sales volume for the first nine months reaching 10,700 kilograms, a slight decline of 2.56% year-on-year. However, the average selling price increased by 44.1% to 729.58 yuan per gram, resulting in total sales revenue of 7.78 billion yuan, accounting for 90% of total revenue [3][4]. Copper and Rare Earth Business - The second-largest revenue source comes from copper products, contributing 4.4% of total revenue with 383 million yuan. The demand for copper is expected to rise due to the need for upgrading aging power grids in Europe and the US [3][4]. - The company has also begun to develop its rare earth business, which, although currently contributing only 0.9% of total revenue, has a high selling price of 172,300 yuan per ton. This sector is gaining importance due to its applications in electric vehicles and robotics [4][6]. Market Position and Valuation - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining is positioned as a leading gold mining company in mainland China, with a projected earnings growth of 86% and 17% for the next two years, reaching 3.28 billion and 3.83 billion yuan, respectively [6][7]. - The company's current market P/E ratio is 16.7, which is significantly lower than its peers, indicating an attractive valuation and potential for stock price appreciation [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply shortage in the mining sector and the persistently low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association proposes to set an upper limit on smelting capacity. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The strategy for November is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with a suggested buying range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 90,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,210 yuan/ton and closed at 87,300 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 87,430 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 80 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 5 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price dropped, attracting downstream buyers, but more arrivals made holders eager to sell, pressuring the spot premium. It is expected that downstream buyers will continue to bargain today, and the spot premium is unlikely to rise significantly [2] Important Information Summary - Interest rate: Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, while Governor Cook said December rate cuts depend on new information. Economic data: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, with new orders falling and production weak [3] Mining End - Tanzania's election unrest closed the Dar es Salaam Port, causing shipping delays and cost increases. Ivanhoe Mines' Prat Reef Phase I concentrator started feeding on October 29, and Indonesia approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrate [4] Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline to 134,625 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased 10.83% to 116,140 tons, reaching a six - month high. International copper inventory decreased by 1,422 tons to 15,059 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate to 355,660 tons, the highest since mid - April 2003 [4] Consumption - In October, the copper cable market was sluggish due to high copper prices, with the monthly operating rate between 60% - 63%, down significantly year - on - year. In November, the market is still dominated by rigid demand, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 325 tons to 133,600 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 356 tons to 40,066 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [6][7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Category | Project | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 03 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | - 5 | 0 | - 45 | 15 | | | Premium Copper | 60 | 55 | - 5 | 70 | | | Flat - water Copper | - 30 | - 50 | - 75 | - 30 | | | Wet - process Copper | - 100 | - 115 | - 135 | - 80 | | | Yangshan Premium | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 26 | - 43 | | Inventory | LME | 133,600 | 134,625 | 135,975 | 141,725 | | | SHFE | 116,140 | | 104,792 | | | | COMEX | 322,649 | 320,493 | 315,665 | 294,007 | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | 40,066 | 39,710 | 35,392 | 26,823 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 9.95% | 10.54% | 7.59% | 5.68% | | Arbitrage | CU2602 - CU251 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 70 | - 40 | - 10 | - 300 | | | CU2512 - CU2511 (Main - Near Month) | 40 | | - 20 | - 20 | - 240 | | | CU12/AL12 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.02 | | | CU12/ZN12 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 3.95 | 3.81 | | Import Profit | - 872 | - 793 | - 786 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | 8.07 | 7.99 | 8.03 | 8.07 | [26][27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Sino-US summit and the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the macro positives are exhausted. Copper reached a record high and then consolidated at a high level to accumulate strength. It is recommended to use trailing stop-loss to protect long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored. [6] - Copper, as the "gold" of the new era, has increasing strategic value in the context of Sino-US competition. In the short term, due to the exhaustion of macro positives, copper needs to consolidate at a high level. In the long term, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand, copper is expected to perform well. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Sino-US summit led to a relaxation of Sino-US relations, with both sides making concessions. The US inflation data was lower than expected, and the government was shut down. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. In the short term, the macro positives are exhausted, and copper needs to consolidate at a high level after reaching a record high. [99] - On the fundamental side, global copper concentrate supply is disrupted, and the copper smelting industry at home and abroad is against the so - called "involution." With the winter maintenance of domestic smelters, the electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of output contraction in the fourth quarter. [99] - In terms of inventory, non-US copper inventory is decreasing, but most of it is locked by hedge funds and traders, unable to adjust the global copper inventory imbalance. High copper prices suppress demand, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors drag down demand, while the power and automotive sectors maintain resilience. [99] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Monetary Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a December rate cut. [9][11] - **Sino-US Relations**: The Sino-US summit on October 30 led to both sides making concessions. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control for one year, and China will suspend relevant export control measures. [12] - **China's Policy**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the economy as the center, which boosts market confidence and is conducive to the transformation of new and old kinetic energy in the economy. [13] - **China's Economic Data**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. [16] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - **Copper Concentrate**: Global copper concentrate supply is facing continuous disruptions. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and production interruptions in other mines have exacerbated the shortage of copper concentrate. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted. [49] - **Refined Copper**: In 2025, China's refined copper production contributed most of the global increment, while overseas production declined in many countries. In October, the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to continue to decline due to smelter maintenance. [58][64] - **Waste Copper**: The supply of waste copper is tight. The export of high - quality waste copper in Europe is restricted, and the import of US waste copper is limited. The refined - waste price difference has widened. [55] Demand - **Downstream Processing**: High copper prices have suppressed demand. In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased slightly, but the overall demand has not improved significantly. The operating rate of some downstream enterprises has fluctuated. [73] - **Terminal Demand**: The power and new energy vehicle sectors show resilience. From January to September, grid engineering investment increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly. [77] 4. Summary and Outlook - **Price Range**: In November, the focus range for Shanghai copper is [84,500, 91,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,500] US dollars/ton. [7][99] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions, do not blindly chase high prices. For new entrants, try to go long on dips. [7][99]

Group 1 - Mercuria Energy Trading and Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) have agreed on a three-year copper supply agreement, with Mercuria prepaying up to $100 million to ERG [1] - ERG will supply copper from its mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which currently produce nearly 140,000 tons of copper annually, primarily for the power and construction industries [1] - The agreement signifies an important step in deepening collaboration with global partners, according to ERG's CEO Shukhrat Ibragimov [1] Group 2 - The copper supply agreement is expected to enhance ERG's asset development in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is increasingly significant for Mercuria [1] - The specific annual copper delivery quantities from ERG to Mercuria have not been disclosed [1] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [1]