Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [3]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported net sales of $1.077 billion, a decrease of 20.87% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a decline in energy storage product prices, although specialty product sales increased by 11% [1][4]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $267 million, down from $291 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of $24 million [9]. - The company’s lithium salt sales volume was 44,000 tons in Q1 2025, down from 49,000 tons in the previous quarter, with net sales for lithium salts at $525 million, a year-over-year decline of 35% [4][5]. - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 21.0%, significantly higher than 2.2% in the same quarter of 2024, influenced by changes in geographic income structure [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net sales were $1.077 billion, down from $1.361 billion in Q1 2024, a decrease of 20.87% [1]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $156 million, a significant increase of 301.4% year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was $19.76 million, compared to a loss of $180 million in the same quarter last year [1]. Business Segment Performance - Lithium Salt Segment: Q1 2025 sales volume was 44,000 tons, with net sales of $525 million, reflecting a 35% year-over-year decline [4]. - Specialty Products: Q1 2025 net sales were $321 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, driven by an 11% increase in sales volume [5]. - Ketjen Segment: Q1 2025 net sales were $231 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $39 million, up 1700% from the previous year [6]. 2025 Outlook - The company expects capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $700 million and $800 million, a reduction of over 50% from 2024 [7]. - The projected lithium salt production for 2025 is expected to grow between 0% to 10% compared to 2024, with a focus on maintaining existing assets and selective growth projects [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 7.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 0.26 billion, showing a significant increase of 539.6% [1][5]. - The stable contribution from the civil explosives business is noted, while the lithium salt business is impacted by falling lithium prices [2][3]. - The company has significant potential with its own lithium mining capacity expected to ramp up, alongside ongoing expansion in lithium salt production [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.2 billion, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 539.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 17.9 billion, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.0 billion, showing a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 15.4 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 0.8 billion, up 446.7% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The civil explosives business generated revenue of 32.6 billion in 2024, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 23.5% [2]. - Lithium salt sales volume in 2024 reached 48,000 tons, up 63.4% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 41.2 billion, down 50.4% due to price declines [2]. Growth Potential - The company has established its own lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe and Namibia, with significant production capacity expected to come online [3]. - The lithium salt production capacity is projected to expand to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with key customers including Tesla and CATL [3]. - The overseas mining service business is anticipated to grow, leveraging cost advantages in civil explosives [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.5 billion for 2025, 8.5 billion for 2026, and 10.6 billion for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 15, and 12 [5][9].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：自有矿即将 贡献利润，民爆业绩增速亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 9,456 | 11,909 | 15,206 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 22.55 | 25.94 | 27.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.22 | 257.12 | 808.12 | 1,281.52 | 1,942.01 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 214.30 | 58.58 | 51.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 324.72 | 50.79 | 16.16 | 10.19 | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：自有矿即将 贡献利润，民爆业绩增速亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 9,456 | 11,909 | 15,206 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 22.55 | 25.94 | 27.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.22 | 257.12 | 808.12 | 1,281.52 | 1,942.01 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 214.30 | 58.58 | 51.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 324.72 | 50.79 | 16.16 | 10.19 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 消费预期仍较弱，碳酸锂继续探底 市场分析 2025年4月28日，碳酸锂主力合约2505开于68080元/吨，收于66960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌2.07%。当 日成交量为145735手，持仓量为246197手，较前一交易日增加28827手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1890 元/吨。所有合约总持仓393166手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加42206手，成交 量增加，整体投机度为0.49 。当日碳酸锂仓单32847手，较上个交易日增加1052手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年4月28日电池级碳酸锂报价6.74-7.03万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.665-6.755万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产量 环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成实 质性改变。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心大幅下移。由于当前下游材料厂五一节前备库已结束，采购意愿较为薄弱； 叠加后续需求难达此 ...

据悉，此次谈判导火索源于4月以来碳酸锂价格快速下探，击穿该厂商长协"地板价"红线，下游采购意 愿低迷倒逼定价机制调整。 中信证券发布研报称，固态电池凭借其优异性能有望拓宽锂电池的应用场景，中信证券预计2030年全球 固态电池出货量将超600GWh。硫化物固态电解质、金属锂负极以及富锂锰基正极材料的应用有望带动 固态电池锂单耗达到现有电池的2倍以上。 中信证券预计2030年全球固态电池行业对锂需求量超55万吨LCE，带动全球碳酸锂需求量增长5%。 涉及碳酸锂相关港股企业： 天齐锂业（09696）、赣锋锂业（01772） 业内人士分析，目前谈判暂未涉及生产端减量，若厂商采取惜售挺价策略或对锂价形成托底效应；但若 最终以变相降价方式达成协议，或引发原料端价格二次松动，加剧市场悲观情绪。 中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会消息，2025年3月，碳酸锂产量逐步提高，部分产线检修完成、恢复生 产，氢氧化锂产量增长。需求端，新能源汽车产销继续保持较快增长，动力电池装机量同比增长。2025 年3月，国内碳酸锂价格基本持平。 工信部发布消息，2024年，我国锂离子电池产业延续增长态势。根据锂电池行业规范公告企业信息和行 业协会测算， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - After continuous decline, the downstream procurement willingness of lithium carbonate has increased. The price has fallen below the previously agreed bottom price in the industry, and the subsequent price may need to be renegotiated. The market has stabilized and rebounded. However, the current oversupply pattern remains unchanged, with high total industry inventory pressure and a large number of new warehouse receipts registered. In the medium to long term, lithium prices are still under pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 68,000 yuan/ton and closed at 68,980 yuan/ton, a 0.96% increase from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 216,166 lots, and the open interest was 206,388 lots, an increase of 941 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 365,876 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the contracts increased by 62,193 lots from the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.75. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,735 lots, an increase of 350 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a pattern of opening high, moving low, and rising at the end of the session, ultimately closing up 0.96% [1]. Lithium Carbonate Spot - On April 23, 2025, the quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 71,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,700 - 68,700 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - After the continuous decline of lithium carbonate spot prices, the procurement willingness of downstream material factories has improved marginally, driving up market trading activity. Although upstream lithium salt factories are less willing to sell at this price point, the high inventory of traders continues to drive down the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate. As the pre - May Day stockpiling procurement has not yet started intensively, considering the downstream stockpiling demand, the short - term market may stabilize [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options. - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, and spot - futures operations [3].

2025年04月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：试探前高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，价格回升受限 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 锌：短期承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：基本面短线支撑，镍价坚挺运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：成本或底部支撑，负反馈预期施压 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面考验成本支撑 | 14 | | 多晶硅：交割资源或受限，关注市场情绪变化 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：月差走强，震荡走势延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2504 | 781.60 | 2.24% | 792.56 | 2.62% | | | 黄金T+D | 78 ...

图为天齐锂业电池级碳酸锂生产工厂 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 胡雅文 北京报道 截至4月10日，电池级碳酸锂急挫至7.05万元/吨，清明节至今4个交易日共跌去3400元。 《华夏时报》记者从业内了解到，产品角度来讲并没有太多下跌的理由。对于碳酸锂价格波动，鑫椤资讯高级研 究员张金惠告诉记者，"如今全球市场普遍下跌，大宗商品市场受到影响。" 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师李 攀表示，短期来看，美国关税将导致中国锂电出口减少从而传导至碳酸锂需求量，全年碳酸锂价格重心下移。 受盘面及宏观情绪影响，锂矿价格同步下跌，锂盐市场"矿盐倒挂"或因此加重。2024年碳酸锂均价同比暴跌 64.35%至9.02万元/吨，2025年开年即跌破7.6万元/吨。尽管锂矿价格同步下行，但成本倒挂矛盾愈发尖锐——当 前835美元/吨的锂辉石精矿对应碳酸锂成本线已达7.4—7.6万元/吨，近日锂盐大跌进一步拉大了单位亏损。 若是按照2024年美国市场40吉瓦时的储能电池计算，对应的碳酸锂当量约为2.4万吨。不过根据上海有色网数据， 2024年我国碳酸锂出口不足0.5万吨。天齐锂业也于4月9日回复投资者称，20 ...