证券日报网讯盛新锂能9月15日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，上半年锂盐行业受周期下行的影 响，产品价格低位运行，对公司生产经营和业绩产生较大影响；同时公司根据会计准则计提了资产减值 准备，因汇率变动确认了汇兑损失，上述事项综合影响了公司上半年的业绩情况。7月以来，锂盐价格 自前期低位有所反弹，公司也将努力做好各项经营管理工作，改善公司盈利能力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to the development of the solid-state battery industry and is actively advancing the research and industrialization of lithium sulfide, a key raw material for solid-state batteries [1] Group 1 - The company has established a lithium salt production research and development center that has determined the synthesis process route for lithium sulfide and the construction plan for the synthesis experimental platform [1] - The company is collaborating with several partner enterprises and universities to promote the research and industrialization of lithium sulfide and sulfide solid electrolytes [1] - The company expects to complete sample production and customer delivery by the end of the year, with plans to start pilot line construction in 2026 [1]

| 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月12日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周五SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72398元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌406元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.09-7.4万元/吨，均价7.2 45万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7. 08万元/吨，均价7.02万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨。碳 酸锂期货价格持续横盘低位震荡，下游材 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Price Trend**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices first declined and then rebounded due to the expected resumption of production at Jianxiawo. The 2511 contract closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 71,260 yuan/ton, down 3,060 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price decreased by 2,300 yuan/ton to 72,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Production has exceeded the level before the shutdown at Jianxiawo. Raw material shipments decreased while arrivals increased. Weekly production reached 19,963 tons, up 544 tons week-on-week. In September, lithium battery production is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a 5% month-on-month increase. Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 139,000 tons, with upstream inventory at an absolute low and downstream inventory at an absolute high [2]. - **Market Outlook**: A weak outlook is expected. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was -100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract price is expected to range between 61,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on inventory as the basis gradually recovers [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Tables**: The report presents data on the spot market prices of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery products, showing price changes and percentages [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Raw Material Situation**: Hedland Port started its annual maintenance and dredging on September 12, expected to last 3 - 4 weeks. Last week, Australian ore shipments reached a record high of 157,000 - 207,000 tons, but this week it was 0 tons. In September, the known arrival of Australian ore from all countries was 388,000 tons, with 364,000 tons arriving in China, a week - on - week increase of about 100,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Production Graphs**: Multiple graphs illustrate the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, and the monthly and weekly production and inventory of lithium carbonate [9][10][11][12][13]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **Production and Consumption Graphs**: Graphs show the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, and the production and capacity utilization rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [14][15][16].

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market has experienced price fluctuations, with domestic spot prices falling to around 70,000 yuan per ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine and a decline in lithium carbonate futures prices [1] - In August, the Jiangxiawo lithium mine was temporarily shut down, leading to a significant decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production. However, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased substantially, filling the supply gap [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production reached 85,000 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 39% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, driven by improved production enthusiasm from spodumene lithium extraction companies [3] Group 2 - Following the confirmation of the Jiangxiawo mine's shutdown on August 11, lithium carbonate futures contracts surged, leading to a significant increase in related stocks. Conversely, the announcement of the mine's resumption on September 10 caused a sharp decline in futures and stock prices, indicating a return to a "supply surplus" market condition [4] - Despite the short-term decline in lithium prices, the average price of lithium carbonate in the third quarter is significantly higher than in the second quarter, with an average price of 72,947.92 yuan per ton compared to 65,237.17 yuan per ton in the second quarter, reflecting an 11.82% increase [4] - Companies with stable production costs, such as salt lake enterprises, are expected to see a rebound in profitability in the third quarter due to rising lithium carbonate prices, although the impact on profitability may be limited due to their cost advantages [5] Group 3 - Spodumene lithium extraction companies, with production costs around 70,000 yuan per ton, are likely to achieve a turnaround in profitability for their lithium salt business in the third quarter, as the average price of lithium carbonate rises to 73,000 yuan per ton [6] - Some raw material self-sufficient spodumene lithium extraction companies still face significant operational pressure due to relatively low lithium prices, and the upcoming low-cost production capacity may further increase market supply pressure [6] - Salt Lake companies are planning to start trial production of a 40,000-ton-per-year lithium salt project by the end of September, which, combined with the potential resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine, raises questions about whether spot prices can maintain above 70,000 yuan per ton [6]

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures [1][8] - Despite a decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production in August, overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow, indicating significant supply elasticity in the market [2][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter is 72,947.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a nearly 12% increase compared to the second quarter [2][10] Supply and Production - In August, lithium mica production decreased significantly, with a reported 13,980 tons LCE produced, down 7,120 tons from the previous month [5] - The overall lithium carbonate production in August reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [7] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, with the market remaining oversupplied despite fluctuations in production due to external factors [7][12] Price Fluctuations - The lithium carbonate market experienced two price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation and supply disruptions [4] - Following the announcement of the Jiangxiawo mine's resumption, the futures market and related lithium stocks saw significant declines, indicating a return to a supply-overhang pricing environment [8][15] - The average price of lithium hydroxide also increased compared to the second quarter, contributing to improved profitability for certain lithium salt companies [10][12] Profitability and Market Dynamics - Companies that did not experience production cuts are expected to see a temporary bottoming out of profits in the third quarter [3] - Salt lake enterprises with stable production costs are likely to see a recovery in profit margins, although the impact of rising lithium prices may be limited due to their cost advantages [11][12] - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources are projected to potentially turn losses into profits in the third quarter due to the increase in lithium carbonate prices [13] Future Outlook - New low-cost production capacity is expected to come online soon, which may further increase supply pressure in the market [14] - The potential for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine to resume production raises uncertainty about whether the spot price of lithium carbonate can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [15]

Group 1 - The company, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ), is currently focused on its core business of potassium and lithium and has no plans to invest in the non-ferrous metal industry [2] - There was an inquiry from investors regarding the possibility of the company investing in copper mining enterprises [2] - The company reaffirmed its commitment to its main business areas without diversifying into other metal sectors at this time [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with strong supply and weak demand, making it difficult to change the downward trend. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,320 - 73,440 [13][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, a 1.23% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 592 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 79,330 yuan/ton, a 1.00% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,571 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis on September 3rd showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,020 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, and the inventory situation is neutral. The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, which is neutral. The net short position of the main contract increased, which is negative [9][12][13]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.06% to 75,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.13% to 73,600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous week. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase from the previous month [22]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous month. The monthly production of ternary materials was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease from the previous month [22]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium ore**: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale also showed certain changes over time [28]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends. The monthly production and import of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a deficit in some months [33][39]. - **Lithium hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide changed over time. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months [41][48]. 3.4 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) showed different trends over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state [51]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory) showed different trends. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [9]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries changed over time [62]. - **Ternary precursor**: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors was positive in some months and negative in others [67][70]. - **Ternary materials**: The price, production, cost - profit, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials fluctuated over time [73]. - **Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate**: The price, production, cost - profit, and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. The production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate changed over time [77][80]. - **New energy vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased slightly in some periods [85].

Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses how Shanghai Lishimo New Materials Co., Ltd. has adapted to market volatility in the lithium salt industry by leveraging financial tools and partnerships to manage risks effectively [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to below 60,000 yuan/ton in mid-June, before rebounding to over 75,000 yuan/ton [1] - The volatility of over 50% in lithium prices has created challenges for the entire lithium salt industry, leading to the exit of smaller traders due to financial constraints [1] Group 2: Strategic Adaptation - Shanghai Lishimo has shifted its trading model from a traditional "buy cost + profit" approach to a more market-oriented "spot-futures combination" model following the launch of lithium carbonate futures in 2023 [2] - The company has engaged Citic Futures to explore a futures asset management model, allowing for lower-cost risk hedging and compliance with new asset management regulations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The integration of spot and futures markets is expected to enhance risk management capabilities, with the company aiming to expand its services to more upstream and downstream clients in the lithium carbonate supply chain [2][3] - The focus on risk control rather than immediate profit is emphasized, suggesting that companies should engage in limited speculative activities while adhering to established operational rules for sustainable growth [3]