Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel ore benchmark prices have slightly declined, but the premium operation has been relatively stable. In the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, the transaction center of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the raw material support has weakened, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market has shown a sluggish performance. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material side is tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious, with the output of primary nickel increasing month - on - month in December. Referring to the cost support of SMM's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110,000 yuan/ton, one can consider making low - position layouts and waiting for the realization of positive factors, but should be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly decline: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel both fell 3.7%, and most product prices in the industry chain declined. For example, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped from 925 yuan/nickel point last month to 883 yuan/nickel point this month, a decrease of 42 yuan/nickel point [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly changes: LME inventory decreased by 3,744 tons to 254,760 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 239 tons to 33,309 tons; social inventory increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons; and bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,200 tons [8][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Nickel ore**: The domestic trade price of 1.2% nickel ore in Indonesia remained at $23/wet ton, and that of 1.6% remained at $52.5/wet ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5/wet ton, and the price of Philippine nickel ore remained at $8.0/wet ton [5][22]. - **Refined nickel**: The output of refined nickel in December is expected to increase by 6.2% month - on - month to 27,400 tons [5][24]. - **Nickel iron**: The purchase price of large nickel - iron plants is 880 yuan/nickel point. Traders' inquiries are relatively active, but factory quotations are scarce. There may be production cuts in December [5][26]. - **Intermediate products**: The weekly average spot prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte have slightly declined. Recently, some intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park have been affected by tailings dam stacking issues, which are expected to last until the first quarter of next year. SMM expects that the MHP output in December will decrease by about 6,000 nickel tons [5][29]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The economic efficiency of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, and high - grade nickel matte has declined [5][34]. 3.4 Demand - **New energy**: In December 2025, the estimated output of ternary precursors in China is 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 23.09%. Domestic and export demands have declined, and the output is expected to drop. The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons. In November, the estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars is about 2.25 million, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, the retail volume of new energy vehicles can reach about 1.35 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% [6][46]. - **Stainless steel**: Most spot prices of stainless steel have declined this month, and the spot premium has dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country, measured by 89 warehouses, is 1.086 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series has increased by 10,000 tons to 669,000 tons. The estimated crude steel production in November is 3.4551 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. In October, the import of stainless steel increased by 3% month - on - month to 120,000 tons, the export decreased by 14% month - on - month to 358,000 tons, and the net export was 233,000 tons. The positions of raw materials and finished products have fluctuated, and the profit has changed little [6][8]. 3.5 Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [91]. 3.6 Options - Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and the put - call ratios of option trading volume and open interest related to Shanghai nickel is provided [96][101].

Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - December is traditionally a slow season for lithium consumption, but downstream demand has exceeded expectations, leading to a forecast of high lithium prices [1] - In November, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased by 3% and 2% respectively, with limited growth expected in December [1] - Demand for lithium remains strong, with November orders for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing by 4.7% and decreasing by 0.2% respectively, while December orders are expected to remain robust [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - The market experienced a shortage of over 10,000 tons in November, with a projected shortfall of over 5,000 tons in December, indicating continued expectations for inventory depletion [1] - Lithium carbonate inventory has fallen below 120,000 tons, with lithium salt plant inventories decreasing from nearly 60,000 tons to 24,000 tons since mid-year [1] - The high demand expected in the second quarter of next year will likely lead to a rebound in prices due to insufficient inventory levels [1] Group 3: Nickel Market Overview - The LME nickel price is currently at $14,820 per ton, reflecting a 1.4% increase from the previous week, while the SHFE nickel price rose by 2.7% to 117,080 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to reach 40,500 tons this week, with an increase in operating rates due to support from processing and some manufacturers resuming production [3] - Demand for nickel sulfate remains weak, with low purchasing intentions from downstream precursor companies, leading to a reliance on just-in-time orders [3] Group 4: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - Rare earth prices have shown fluctuations, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 556,500 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from last week, while dysprosium oxide decreased by 1.01% to 1,470,000 yuan per ton [5] - Supply constraints are evident as some separation enterprises face operational issues, leading to tighter availability of oxides [5] - Demand from magnetic material companies remains stable, with increasing orders from both domestic and overseas markets, providing solid support for the market [5]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 库存跟踪： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：现实基本面仍有压力，宏观与消息影响边际。精炼镍累库矛盾和湿法投产预期压制估值， 火法利润遭重导致 11 月精炼镍排产环比减少 6%至 31580 吨，部分企业将精炼镍转向非标镍生产，但由于 市场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，累库 矛盾尚未完全化解。同时，远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线 逻辑或仍有拖累。从宏观与消息面看，美联储偏鸽派言论提振，降息预期回升，宏观压力阶段性缓和，同 时，印尼的资源治理动作频繁，低位追空仍需关注风险。印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预 算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年或可能削减配额，仍需紧密关注印尼审批进展的下一步动作。因此，整体 而言，现实面和预期都存在压力，但是短线在还未实质出清的阶段，宏观情绪回升，叠加消息面仍存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On November 26, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, after getting support around 115,000, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery [1]. - Stainless steel: On November 26, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening, but with the production - cut disturbance in the 400 - series, the stainless steel is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates (2025 - 11 - 19, 2025 - 11 - 25, 2025 - 11 - 26) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 117,030 yuan/ton, up 1,090 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active nickel futures contract on November 26 was 176,566 hands (+60,128), and the open interest was 128,268 hands (- 12,947) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased, while the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless - Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates also fluctuated. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract on November 26 was 151,599 hands (+1,313), and the open interest was 131,410 hands (- 15,827) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 620,400 tons (- 2,800) [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic production in November decreasing and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and the production of the 300 - series was basically flat [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - **Nickel**: Not much information on cost analysis for nickel in the report. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, indicating that the cost support for stainless steel was weakening [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Indonesian nickel industry emphasizes sustainable development based on green and low - carbon technologies. Indonesian Vale's director pointed out that the sustainable development of the nickel industry must be based on green and low - carbon technologies. The company has implemented multiple de - phosphorus measures, including using hydropower, recycling waste heat, and using carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Indonesian Mining Holding Company (Mind Id) said Indonesia can build a world - class supply chain meeting net - zero emission goals [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short after a rebound [1].

Industry Overview - Indonesia's nickel industry is facing increasing pressure due to a mismatch between nickel ore supply and rapidly expanding smelting capacity, leading to potential production cuts at smelting plants [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association's chairman highlighted that the demand for mining quotas is sharply rising, while the government has reduced the validity period of mining quotas from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply [1] - There is a growing gap between mining output and smelting demand, which could lead to structural raw material shortages if upstream planning is not strengthened [1] Company Insights - Liqin Resources (02245) has successfully transformed into a global nickel smelting leader, securing a 20-year agreement with partners for nickel ore supply at government-regulated minimum prices, benefiting from significant cost advantages due to short transportation distances [2] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) owns four nickel-copper mines and two vanadium mines, indicating a diversified resource base [2] - Minmetals Resources (01208) is in the process of acquiring Anglo American's nickel business, with the EU extending the review period until June 30, 2026, for the acquisition of nickel operations in Brazil [2] - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) is a global leader in nickel and cobalt pCAM for lithium-ion batteries, holding significant stakes in three nickel laterite mines in Indonesia and various lithium and phosphate mines [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the high inventory restricts the rebound strength of nickel prices. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the production of pure nickel will significantly decline from November to December. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options at resistance levels [6]. - For stainless steel, the overall trading atmosphere is still weak, with terminal demand in the off - season. The price is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The strategy is to sell on rebounds for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 308,000 tons. LME inventory is 254,000 tons, increasing by 2,082 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 39,800 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 52,000 tons, decreasing by 855 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period [17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand of Refined Nickel - **Supply**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. The net import was 47,200 tons, compared with a net export of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, it turned to net export. The supply from January to October was 383,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. It is expected that the total output in November will remain high at 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month [25]. - **Demand**: From January to October, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will be more obvious. In October, the downstream demand for nickel fell below the 50 boom - bust line [29]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore is stable but under great pressure. The willingness of Philippine nickel mines to hold prices is strong, but the high - nickel iron market has limited ability to absorb nickel ore, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The premium of domestic - trade nickel ore in November was flat month - on - month [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increased, and the price was under pressure. The production of China + Indonesia's NPI from January to October showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory of NPI in China also increased [34][36]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series weakened. The price of chrome ore has been declining continuously. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in December 2025 decreased month - on - month [38]. - **Cost Inversion of Cold - Rolled Products**: The prices of various raw materials such as nickel ore, high - nickel iron, and chromium series showed a downward trend from November 17th to 21st [43]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to October, the combined stainless - steel crude - steel output of China and Indonesia increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the output decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, exports remained flat year - on - year, and net exports increased by 14% year - on - year [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate and provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to September reached 28%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%. From January to October, the sales were 12.911 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The power cell production also increased. However, the off - season is coming, and a decline in the power sector is likely [61]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year. US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year, and European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports from January to October increased by 87% year - on - year [68]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to October, the cumulative output of nickel sulfate decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The output of ternary precursors decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons, and the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons [70]. - **Raw Materials**: The output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons, and the output of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate has stimulated the recovery of intermediate product output [74]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Market - There is a significant domestic surplus of pure nickel due to a large increase in imports [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - **Spot**: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Overview - Date: November 21, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures Core Views - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and a cooling market sentiment may lead to a price correction [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: The market shows a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][14]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380 yuan, down 270 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 154,598 lots, with a decrease of 40,178 lots from the previous day. Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel ore prices, and stainless - steel product prices also showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Issues include the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, China's suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, sanctions on Indonesian mining companies, new regulations on Indonesian mining business plans, potential US tariffs on China, and Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses [5][6][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,980 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, a decrease of 171,782 lots from the previous day. Other data related to the lithium carbonate market, including spot prices, raw material prices, and downstream product prices, all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 2563 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. This week, the lithium carbonate output increased by 585 tons, and the industry inventory decreased by 2052 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9075 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 574,345 lots, a decrease of 181,387 lots from the previous day. Data such as prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and their related products also showed different trends [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 18, a 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was completed and put into operation, with a total investment of about 5 billion yuan and an average annual power generation of about 3.2 billion kWh [14][16]. - **Trend Strength**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16].