证券研究报告|金融工程专题 2025年5月22日 极端风格的回摆是坚守还是调仓 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号：S0210524100005 何佳玮 执业证书编号：S0210524100009 华福证券 ➢ 极端风格的情绪、交易预警。报告重点分析以下7种风格：成长（创业板指、TMT）、稳定（中字头央国企）、消费、金融、 红利、低估值、盈利质量风格。短期行情中，风格更多受到情绪的影响，体现在资金流、拥挤度、强弱势市场环境中，影响 风格的相对热度。对比全市场交易情绪，大多数的极端风格截止时间对应交易情绪的局部高点，成长风格下情绪指标拉升幅 度较大，百分位变动23%-35%均为较安全区间；对比风格内部交易情绪，收益分化程度到达高位时，极端风格行情结束的概 率较高，拥挤度方面当风格中的资金逐步流出、拥挤度从高位下跌至90%以下时，可能对应极端风格行情的结束。 ➢ 极端风格行情结束后短期风格收敛的方式。极端风格行情结束后，未来短期建议关注前期涨幅较少的风格，过往15年的极端 风格裂口弥合的方式中弱势风格补涨特征显著。极端风格结束后，未来短期（未来10、20个交易日）风格收敛方式受到市场 强弱影响：强势市场中，短期风格 ...

多为市场老将，但风格迥异。 | 作者 | | 破浪 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 上个周末，公募界发生了不少事——张坤卸任易方达副总，选择专注投资，同时4月份就传出离职的 鲍无可也正式官宣了。 4月初，鲍无可在管的多只基金增聘基金经理，且增聘的多是市场老将，这一风向被市场解读为鲍师 傅要离职了，毕竟"增聘"这一举动几乎是基金经理离任前的"标配"。 因而，鲍无可的离职是意料之中，但走的这么快风云君还是有些稍感意外，业内不少人猜测他的下一 站或为私募。 这两年，不少绩优基金经理纷纷卸任出走，公募基金难道真要变成"私募的黄埔军校"？ 注：如无特殊说明，全文数据截至2025年5月16日。 年化回报超15%的十年老将退场 鲍无可是市场里少数的"双十"基金经理之一，即基金经理从业年限超过10年、年化回报高于10%，他 目前只服务过景顺长城一家公募，而且一干就是15年多。 2009年12月，鲍无可加入景顺长城，先后担任研究部研究员、高级研究员、基金经理职务，2014年6 月开始管理基金，后做到投资部投资副总监。 净值走势上，鲍无可管理的基金整体走势平稳向上，是业内为数不多、确实能让 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 总量研究 金融地产主题基金热度延续，科创、TMT 主题 ETF 资金流入占优 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250520 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.5.12-2025.5.16）美股大涨，国内权益市场指数涨跌分化，沪深 300 上 涨 1.12%。行业方面，本周美容护理、非银金融、汽车行业涨幅居前，计算 机、国防军工、传媒行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周权益类基金净值延 续上涨，其中股票指数型基金上涨 0.60%。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场热度回升，新成立基金 24 只，合计 发行份额为 240.04 亿份。其中债券型基金 6 只、股票型基金 12 只、混合型 基金 5 只、FOF 基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 34 只，从类型来看，股票型 基金 18 只、混合型基金 7 只、债券型基金 6 只、FOF 基金 3 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周金融地产主题基金热 度延续，净值上涨 1.45%，国防军工基金净值呈现小幅回调。截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日， 本周金融地产、消费、 ...

□本报记者杨皖玉 "不是所有回撤都能收复失地。"见惯了股市的跌宕起伏，易方达基金刘健维在他的投资中始终强调"确 定性"。 在投资时，刘健维也非常强调以好价格买入。"即使一家公司非常优秀，若在高估期买入也会产生亏 损，价格很重要。" 对于买卖决策，他明确表示，会在个股估值相对合理、具备市值增长空间时买入，在行业或个股投资逻 辑发生变化或泡沫化时果断卖出。 从选择景气行业到精选优质个股，再到以好价格买入……这些动作都在追求所谓的"确定性"，力争获取 更好的风险收益比。 "投资最大的挑战在于不断筛选出好的行业和公司。"刘健维坦言，在不同行业间的切换，从长期来看， 为投资穿越周期提供了可能。 成长投资是不断成长的过程 中国证券报：你经历了A股几轮周期，其中有哪些让你印象深刻的事情？ 刘健维：2014年入行后，见证了2015年互联网标的大涨以及2016、2017年TMT行业表现不尽如人意的 过程，也看到过许多十倍股诞生之后又跌超80%、90%，给我留下了很深的印象。 除此之外，上一轮新能源行情也让我印象深刻。我自2019年开始管理基金，亲身参与了这轮行情，对于 新能源板块，从牛股频出到后面的深度调整，我的感受更加真切。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the A-share market, public funds, and various sectors including technology, consumer goods, manufacturing, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. Core Points and Arguments - **Market Overview**: The market lacks a clear direction, with public fund adjustments and high-frequency data being the main trading logic. Non-bank sectors show a demand for catch-up, becoming a preferred direction for funds. The market is expected to remain volatile with both bullish and bearish factors present [1][4][5]. - **Sector Allocation Recommendations**: The recommendation is to maintain a strategy focused on broad technology, domestic demand, and dividend stocks. New regulations favor large-cap stocks, and the technology sector is expected to see short-term trading opportunities due to upcoming industry events [1][6]. - **Hong Kong Market Outlook**: The Hong Kong market is expected to gain attractiveness due to tariff easing and expectations of RMB appreciation, which will facilitate capital inflow from the south [1][7]. - **Public Fund Regulations Impact**: New regulations pose challenges for fund managers, with only 30.9% of equity mixed funds expected to pass assessments from 2022 to 2024. Strategies may shift towards quantitative methods or changing benchmarks to adapt to these regulations [1][8]. - **Market Capital Flow**: The overall capital flow in the market remained stable, with net inflows in financing funds. However, foreign capital showed mixed trends, with active foreign investments withdrawing from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][10][11]. - **Sector-Specific Trends**: The consumer sector saw significant net outflows in ETFs, while manufacturing and technology sectors experienced slight outflows after previous inflows. Corporate buybacks and major shareholder increases are expected to provide support to the market [1][12]. - **April A-Share Economic Data**: A-share economic data showed a downward trend, with consumer sectors showing signs of recovery, while manufacturing sector improvements slowed down. The TMT sector demonstrated resilience [2][14]. - **Highlighted Industries**: Key industries to watch include lithium batteries, photovoltaic equipment, e-commerce, textiles, dairy products, and condiments, all showing signs of recovery or growth [2][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment Complexity**: Recent market sentiment is described as complex and slightly weaker than expected, with strong performances in certain sectors like photovoltaic and shipping, while others like military and robotics faced corrections [3]. - **Future Market Dynamics**: The market is expected to adapt to new regulations, potentially leading to increased indexation, which may affect the uniqueness and competitiveness of products offered by fund managers [1][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, and their valuations slightly declined. Amid better - than - expected Sino - US economic and trade talks, the equity market accelerated its recovery in the first half of the week and then pulled back. There was a divergence in the performance of large - and small - cap styles in the convertible bond market. Large - cap convertible bonds performed strongly due to the continuous replenishment of under - allocated industries by funds, while previously active styles such as TMT declined. Currently, with limited fluctuations in the bond market and doubts about the medium - to - long - term profit improvement of equities, although there is limited upward space for convertible bond valuations, strong support is likely due to supply - demand contradictions, and no breakthrough variables have emerged. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on high - dividend large - cap debt - biased convertible bonds, combined with a balanced equity - biased direction. Pay attention to recent cases of proposed downward revisions and look for potential targets with a strong willingness to promote conversion. Asymmetrical trading, double - low momentum, and clause - based gaming are still recommended [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks this week, with slightly reduced valuations. The equity market first recovered and then pulled back. There was a style divergence in the convertible bond market. - Given the current situation of the bond and equity markets, convertible bond valuations have limited upward space but are likely to be strongly supported. - Allocate high - dividend large - cap debt - biased convertible bonds, combined with a balanced equity - biased direction. Focus on downward - revision cases and use strategies like asymmetrical trading [1][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, and overall valuations slightly decreased. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market was 28%, down 0.02% week - on - week, at the 73.1st percentile since 2017. Low - rated convertible bonds had a 100 - yuan premium rate of 23%, down 0.2%, at the 71.2nd percentile. High - rated convertible bonds had a 100 - yuan premium rate of 22%, down 0.31%, at the 79.6th percentile [3][7]. - The conversion premium rate decreased, the pure - bond premium rate increased, and the yield to maturity decreased. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 47.24%, 26.13%, and - 2.48% respectively, changing by - 0.91%, 0.42%, and - 0.13% from last week, at the 72.4th, 33.3rd, and 15.3rd percentiles since 2017 [3][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - No new convertible bonds issued early - redemption announcements this week. There is currently 1 convertible bond that has issued an early - redemption announcement and is still trading, and no bonds with maturity - redemption announcements are trading. The potential maturity or conversion balance of early - redeemed and matured convertible bonds still trading is 275 million yuan. - There are 26 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 7 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, which are recommended for observation. - Two convertible bonds, including Qianglian, announced not to redeem early. As of now, 49 convertible bonds are within the non - redemption period [13][18][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - Gaoce and Puli announced downward - revision board plans this week. As of now, 170 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the trigger price but no announcement has been made, 46 are in the downward - revision process, and 4 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [20][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - Three convertible bonds, including Sannuo, Lepu 2, and Changhong, issued put - option announcements this week. As of now, 9 convertible bonds are in the cumulative put - option process, 1 is in the downward - revision process, 2 are in the process of board - proposed revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders. Currently, 6 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There are no convertible bonds scheduled for issuance or listing next week. As of now, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with an expected issuance scale of about 1.45 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee approval process, with an expected issuance scale of about 270 million yuan [25].

野村首席经济学家陆挺表示，由于许多出口商可能在4月暂缓了对美国发货，此次大幅降税可能会刺激 一波被压抑的出口。 高盛分析师也表示，在关税暂缓期内，中国出口商和美国进口商将急切下单，"抢先"会成为关键词。 5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》(以下简称《联合声明》)发布，中美双方均大幅下调美国 发布"对等关税"措施以来互相加征的税率，同时，双方表示后续建设性的谈判将继续。 在《联合声明》发布后，恒生科技指数快速上涨2.5%，当日全天涨幅达5.16%；富时中国A50指数期 货、MSCI中国A50互联互通指数期货盘中双双涨超2%，市场情绪出现了显著变化。 市场情绪改善 《联合声明》发布后，市场机构纷纷表示关注。华夏基金表示，整体看关税暂缓和下调幅度超预期，市 场对此反应积极，这一消息也将为全球市场注入强心剂。 机构表示坚定看好中国资产投资价值。基金人士表示，在当前投资环境下，A股的性价比依旧引人注 目，当前全部A股市盈率中位数25倍，仍处于低于中枢的水平，具备较强的投资价值。 "考虑到目前A股市场较全球新兴市场仍大幅折价，全球资金或呈现持续净流入态势。"瑞银证券中国股 票策略分析师孟磊认为，中美大幅降低双边关 ...

高盛月内第二次做出上调动作。 "中美关税大幅降低，或助力A股市场重拾上升趋势。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为。 他分析，考虑到低基数效应以及更多支持政策的推出，预计今年A股盈利将呈逐季回升态势。市场估值 方面，更为明确的财政政策支持、进一步的对外开放政策、大力推动民营经济发展等举措，或有助于降 低股权风险溢价。 第一财经获悉，在最新发布的研报中，高盛上调MSCI中国指数和沪深300的目标点位至84点和4600点， 对应潜在上涨空间为11%和17%。同时，该公司维持对中国股票的超配评级。 这是高盛月内第二次做出上调中国股票评级。该公司5月8称，维持对中国股市的增持评级，并上调 MSCI中国指数、沪深300指数的12个月目标点位，从前期的75点和4300点，分别上调至78点和4400点， 对应潜在上升空间为7%和15%。 当时，央行等三部门联合推出多项金融政策。高盛认为，一揽子宽松政策具有针对性，愈发以需求侧为 导向，将目标明确指向稳定房地产市场、支持中小企业发展、促进股东回报以及培育稳定、健康的股市 等。 此次再度上调重要指数目标点位，高盛称，至5月14日，中国股市已完全收复美国"自由日"以来的失 地，M ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...