6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 12 月 10 日早 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月中国物价数据。 评论 1： 中国 11 月 CPI 同比为 0.7%，预期为 0.7%，前值 10 月为 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比为 1.2%，， 前值为 1.2%。11 月 CPI 环比为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%，去年同期是-0.6%，可见 11 月 CPI 同比的回升主要受基数的影响；核心 CPI 环比同样为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%。 由于 CPI 的回升，核心 CPI 与 CPI 之间同比差距，由上月 1%缩小至 0.5%。 11 月食品环比为 0.5%，前值为 0.3%，而去年同期是-2.7%。其中，鲜菜环比上涨 7.2%，是影响 CPI 同比回升的关键因素；而猪肉下跌 2.2%，蛋类和水产品环比均 下跌 1.8%，鲜果下跌 0.3%。 11 月非食品环比为-0.2%，前值为 0.2%。其中，其它用品和服务环比上涨 1.2%， 衣着上涨 0.7%，医疗保健环比上涨 0.1%；而交通通讯环比下跌 ...

Demand Side Analysis - The overall domestic demand is showing a slow recovery trend, with significant investment opportunities concentrated in areas with new incremental demand, where innovation is the core driving force [2][5] - Innovation can uncover unmet domestic needs and assist companies in expanding into overseas markets, with the innovative drug sector expected to continue releasing potential [2][5] - The overseas market potential for domestic high-quality medical device companies is substantial, with some leading companies having nearly 50% of their revenue from overseas, while their global market share is only about 3% [2][5] Supply Side Analysis - Although overall investment opportunities on the supply side are not as abundant as on the demand side, there are still structural opportunities [3][6] - The past few years of slowed domestic demand growth have led to operational pressures in many industries, prompting supply-side clearing and optimization of competitive landscapes [3][6] - Companies that have survived the industry downturn are expected to exhibit stronger resilience and significant growth elasticity in the next demand recovery cycle [3][6] - Specific investment targets in the traditional pharmaceutical industry include areas such as traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, and third-party diagnostics, where significant changes on the supply side can be identified [3][6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market, particularly focusing on monetary and fiscal policies, the bond market, the A-share market, and specific sectors such as AI, renewable energy, non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and commercial aerospace. Key Points and Arguments Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy remains accommodative, but the likelihood of further easing in 2026 is low; fiscal policy is actively supportive, focusing on livelihood, consumption, technological innovation, and local government debt resolution, with a projected fiscal deficit exceeding 6 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 6.1 BP, 20.1 BP, and 39.6 BP respectively since the second half of the year, driven by reduced expectations for monetary easing, inflation recovery, and increased supply pressure [3] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, supported by a strong RMB exchange rate and resilient domestic economic fundamentals; the market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase without rapid increases or significant declines [4][5] Cross-Year Market Sentiment - The core of the cross-year market sentiment is the expectation of a spring rally in 2026, with recommendations to position for potential market movements in December [6] Sector Focus for 2026 - Key sectors to watch include AI (especially CPO), renewable energy (storage), non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-ferrous chemicals; opportunities also exist in Hong Kong's internet sector and commercial aerospace [7][13] Specific Company Insights - **Sungrow Power Supply**: The fundamentals remain solid despite recent price drops; price increases in the storage supply chain are demand-driven and do not pose a significant risk [8][9] - **HiSilicon**: Facing significant unlocking pressure on January 27, which may create short-term challenges; however, opportunities in the renewable energy sector post-unlocking in February are noted [9] AI Industry Prospects - The AI sector, particularly in CPO, shows a clear and high certainty outlook; recent market fluctuations due to asset restructuring in specific companies do not significantly impact the overall AI industry [10] Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - Focus on copper and tin, with additional attention to silver, nickel, and rare metals, which present substantial investment opportunities in the near term [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by regulatory measures that enhance capital space and leverage limits for quality institutions, potentially increasing ROE [12] Commercial Aerospace Investment - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a significant investment theme for 2026, with ongoing attention and optimism regarding its growth potential [13] Additional Important Insights - The RMB's appreciation historically supports an upward shift in A-share valuations, indicating a positive correlation between currency strength and market performance [4] - The overall sentiment suggests a strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential and favorable market conditions as the year-end approaches [13]

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strong performance on December 10, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, leading real estate ETFs to rank high in the ETF market's gainers list [1][3] - Notable real estate ETFs included: - 159768.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.575 and a daily increase of 3.79% - 159707.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.64 and a daily increase of 3.73% - 512200.SH Real Estate ETF with a price of 1.534 and a daily increase of 3.09% [4] Group 2: Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector performed well, with themes such as seed industry, land transfer, and aquatic products showing strong performance, leading agriculture-related ETFs to rank among the top gainers [2][5] - The sentiment in the seed industry has been notably boosted, with ongoing commercialization of biological breeding benefiting leading companies [5] Group 3: Technology Sector - Technology ETFs experienced significant inflows, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan last week, and continued inflows in the first two trading days of this week [2][9] - The top net inflows for technology ETFs included: - 159352.OF Southern CSI A500 ETF with a net inflow of 15.66 billion yuan - 159600.OF Harvest CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF with a net inflow of 10.95 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs were actively traded, with several types such as Short-term Bond ETF, Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF, and Yinhua Daily Benefit ETF seeing transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF had a transaction amount of 401.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 54.79% [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest focusing on gold and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment directions, with gold expected to benefit from potential monetary easing and a shift in global credit dynamics [11] - The release of China's first commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is seen as a significant step for the innovative drug industry, potentially enhancing investment opportunities in the healthcare sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing volatility, with Hong Kong stocks continuing to adjust while A-share pharmaceutical stocks saw a slight rebound in the afternoon. The overall market indices for innovative drugs and biotechnology are mixed, indicating varied investor sentiment in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index both declined by 0.7% [1]. - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index increased by 0.2%, while the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index rose by 0.3% [1]. - The CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index saw a gain of 0.4%, reflecting continued capital inflow into the sector [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) attracted a total of 140 million yuan in the previous two trading days, with an additional net subscription of nearly 10 million shares today [1]. Group 3: Policy Updates - The National Medical Insurance Drug List for 2025 and the first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug List (2025) will be released on December 7, marking the 8th adjustment since the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau [1]. - A total of 114 new drugs will be added to the list, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, targeting key areas such as cancer, chronic diseases, mental health, rare diseases, and pediatric medications [1].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory addresses the issue of "can it be used" at the hospital level, but the "last mile" between high-priced innovative drugs and patients remains unconnected. To achieve seamless transformation from "policy text" to "patient benefit," three key barriers must be crossed [1][3]. Group 1: Release of the Directory - On December 7, 2025, the National Healthcare Security Administration officially released the first version of the "Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory," incorporating 19 high-clinical-value, high-cost innovative drugs into the commercial health insurance payment framework for the first time at the national level [2]. - The directory includes 14 anti-tumor drugs (including all 5 CAR-T therapies available in China), 2 rare disease drugs, and 2 Alzheimer's disease new drugs, aligning with the current claims data of commercial health insurance, where malignant tumors are the most prevalent and costly disease area [2]. Group 2: Policy Support and Challenges - The commercial health insurance innovative drug directory is supported by policies that exempt the listed drugs from self-payment rate assessments, collection of alternative monitored varieties, and DRG payment scope, addressing the challenges hospitals face in using innovative drugs under cost control pressures [3]. - Despite the directory solving the "can it be used" issue, the connection between high-priced innovative drugs and patients still needs to be established, requiring standardization and universalization of the directory [3][4]. Group 3: Standardization and Payment Collaboration - The current directory serves as a guiding list rather than a mandatory coverage requirement for commercial insurance products, necessitating the promotion of core drugs in the directory as standard configurations in commercial health insurance, especially in inclusive "benefit insurance" products [4]. - The basic medical insurance market can leverage its large insured population to negotiate lower drug prices, but the fragmented nature of the commercial health insurance market poses challenges in forming a cohesive payment force to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies [4]. Group 4: Service Integration and Patient Experience - An ideal multi-tiered payment system should achieve seamless integration and instant settlement among basic medical insurance, commercial insurance, and patient out-of-pocket expenses, which currently requires patients to prepay and navigate complex claims processes [5]. - Commercial insurance accounts for only 7.7% of the overall payment for innovative drugs, indicating significant growth potential. Bridging the "last mile" between the 19 innovative drugs in the directory and patients requires coordinated efforts from government and market forces [5].

安信基金成长投资部副总经理 池陈森：过去十年，中国医药产业最欣喜的一个变化，就是中国创新药 企业竞争力的全球崛起。 0:00 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is positioning itself as a leading hub for the biopharmaceutical and high-end medical device industries, with significant growth in production value and exports projected through 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Development - From 2020 to 2024, the production value of Shenzhen's biopharmaceutical and medical device sectors is expected to increase from 128 billion to 157.6 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% [1][2]. - Medical device production value is projected to rise from 83.1 billion to 102.8 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in the country [1][2]. - In 2024, the total export value of pharmaceuticals and medical devices is anticipated to reach 41.38 billion yuan, with medical device exports alone accounting for 29.85 billion yuan, also ranking first nationally [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Shenzhen plans to establish an "industrial development pattern" consisting of "one corridor, two zones, and three bases" to enhance its biopharmaceutical sector [2]. - The "4+4+N" development strategy will focus on four emerging tracks, including cell and gene therapy, and will promote key projects in research and development and international expansion [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Ecosystem - The Pingshan District, as a national-level biopharmaceutical industrial base, has developed 13 specialized parks covering over 2.79 million square meters, with an annual compound growth rate of enterprises at 39.8% [2]. - The Guangming District hosts over 900 medical device companies and is developing a comprehensive ecosystem that includes technological innovation, clinical research, and policy support [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Events and Innovations - The Shenzhen International High-Performance Medical Device and Innovative Pharmaceutical Exhibition will take place from December 18 to 20, showcasing advancements in biomanufacturing, AI in pharmaceuticals, and other emerging fields [4][5]. - The exhibition will feature over 300 participating companies, including major international and domestic players, and will highlight new drug developments and clinical trials [5][6].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) experienced a slight decline of 0.12% today, with a total trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 1.1 billion yuan yesterday and more than 1 billion yuan today, accumulating a total of over 1.9 billion yuan in the last 20 days [1] - As of December 9, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF reached over 23 billion yuan, leading its peers in the same category [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [3] - There is a notable division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), leading to the term "hawkish cut" being used, indicating that while a rate cut is expected, further cuts may not be imminent [3] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List has added 114 new drugs, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, up from 76% last year [5][8] - The total number of drugs in the National Medical Insurance Drug List has increased to 3,253, enhancing coverage for critical areas such as oncology, chronic diseases, and rare diseases [8] - The first commercial insurance innovative drug list has been released, including 19 drugs from 18 companies, aimed at improving access to high-value innovative drugs [6][13] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) is fully invested in innovative drugs, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 74% of its weight [15] - The index has shown a year-to-date increase of over 90%, outperforming other Hong Kong pharmaceutical indices [16] - The ETF's underlying assets are Hong Kong stocks, allowing for T+0 trading, which may attract more investors [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector continues to adjust, with the core Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) experiencing fluctuations below the surface, nearing its lowest point since July. However, there is a surge in buying interest as funds have entered the market significantly in recent days, indicating active buying momentum [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) has seen a net subscription of over 56 million yuan in the last two days, totaling over 113 million yuan [1][6]. - Leading stocks in the sector have shown a trend of more declines than gains, with companies like Kangfang Biotech and China Biopharmaceutical dropping over 2%, while CSPC Pharmaceutical rose over 2% [3][8]. Group 2: Industry Developments - Significant progress has been made in the negotiation of innovative drugs within the national medical insurance framework, with multiple products and new indications successfully included in the national medical insurance catalog. Companies like Innovent Biologics, Kangfang Biotech, and Kelun-Biotech have high negotiation success rates, which helps improve drug accessibility [3][8]. - The commercial insurance catalog is becoming an important incremental market, promoting the commercialization of innovative drugs. The overall industry is witnessing accelerated R&D, expansion of indications, and internationalization [3][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Innovative drugs are expected to accelerate their market penetration with the support of medical insurance, particularly in high-incidence areas with unmet clinical needs such as tumors and autoimmune diseases [3][8]. - The outbound model is continuously upgrading, enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drug pipelines. New technologies like bispecific antibodies and targeted drugs are driving product differentiation [3][8]. - Policies continue to encourage the development of innovative drugs, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [3][8]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) is the largest in its category, with a scale of 2.142 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 458 million yuan since its inception [4][12]. - The index tracked by the ETF, the Hang Seng Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index, has a significant concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 72% of the index weight, indicating strong leadership in the innovative drug sector [4][11]. - The ETF is designed to be pure and comprehensive, focusing solely on innovative drug R&D companies, and it effectively controls risks associated with less liquid constituent stocks [4][10].