证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 02 月 26 日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） AI 战略持续推进，阿里云视觉生成基座模型万相 2.1 宣布开源 | 财务指标 | FY2023A | FY 2024A | FY 2025E | FY 2026E | FY 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 868,687 | 941,168 | 999,615 | 1,112,571 | 1,197,349 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 1.83 | 8.34 | 6.21 | 11.30 | 7.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 72,509 | 79,741 | 125,071 | 159,183 | 186,010 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 17.03 | 9.97 | 56.32 | 27.27 | 16.85 | | ROE（%） | 7.35 | 8.11 | 12.54 | 14.81 | 15.59 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 3.83 | 4.21 | 6.58 | 8.37 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 蜜雪冰城 IPO 融资认购额创港股历史纪录 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：门店拓展不及预期、需求减弱、行业竞争加剧、宏 观经济增长放缓等风险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in Xiaomi's stock price, highlighting the significant role of foreign capital in driving the stock's performance, while domestic investors have been reducing their holdings [1][5]. Group 1: Xiaomi Stock Analysis - Xiaomi's stock experienced a sharp fluctuation, rising by 4% to a peak of 58.7 HKD before dropping by 8% to a low of 51.4 HKD [1]. - Over the past month, foreign banks like HSBC and Citibank have been the largest net buyers of Xiaomi shares, acquiring over 200 million shares combined, while domestic investors have sold approximately 52.5 million shares [1]. - The current short interest in Xiaomi remains high, with 349 million shares still shorted, indicating a potential short squeeze scenario as the stock price continues to rise [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.26% and 0.52%, respectively [8]. - The total market turnover reached 20,422 billion CNY, an increase of 722 billion CNY from the previous day, indicating heightened trading activity [8]. - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage stocks, saw significant gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [8]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased significantly, reaching a total of 1,910.208 billion CNY, the highest since September 2021, reflecting strong bullish sentiment [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The top ten industries for financing purchases include electronics, computers, machinery, and electric power equipment, while non-bank financials and electronics lead in short selling [6]. - The market's preference for high-growth sectors has been bolstered by positive news regarding AI technology and significant investments from major companies like Alibaba [6]. - The upcoming "Two Sessions" in China is expected to bring policies aimed at boosting consumption, which could further influence market dynamics [8].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23% on February 27, with 18 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by retail and food & beverage sectors, which increased by 2.28% and 2.24% respectively [1] - The sectors that saw the largest declines were telecommunications and computers, with decreases of 2.77% and 1.88% respectively [1] - The electronics sector fell by 0.88% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 76.648 billion yuan across the two markets, with 9 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The food & beverage sector had the highest net inflow of capital, totaling 2.286 billion yuan, while the retail sector followed with a net inflow of 1.664 billion yuan [1] - A total of 22 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the computer sector leading with an outflow of 18.624 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics sector with an outflow of 18.521 billion yuan [1] Electronics Sector Details - The electronics sector saw a decline of 0.88% with a total net outflow of 18.521 billion yuan [2] - Out of 458 stocks in the electronics sector, 104 stocks rose, including 6 that hit the daily limit, while 351 stocks fell [2] - Notably, 90 stocks in the electronics sector experienced net inflows, with 6 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows, led by Zhuoyue Technology with 329 million yuan [2] - Conversely, 52 stocks faced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Industrial Fulian, SMIC, and Changying Precision, amounting to 658 million yuan, 608 million yuan, and 599 million yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23% on February 27, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, particularly in retail and food & beverage sectors, which increased by 2.28% and 2.24% respectively [1] Market Performance - The food & beverage sector saw a net inflow of 22.86 billion yuan, contributing to its 2.24% increase, while the retail sector also performed well with a 2.28% rise and a net inflow of 16.64 billion yuan [1][2] - Conversely, the computer and communication sectors faced significant declines, with losses of 2.77% and 1.88% respectively, and a total net outflow of 766.48 billion yuan across the market [1] Sector Analysis - In the food & beverage sector, out of 123 stocks, 118 rose, with 7 hitting the daily limit, while only 5 declined [2] - The top net inflow stocks in the food & beverage sector included Kweichow Moutai with a net inflow of 4.90 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye and Haoxiangni with inflows of 3.40 billion yuan and 3.01 billion yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had 7 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, led by Shanxi Fenjiu, Lianhua Holdings, and Anjijia Foods, with outflows of 76.29 million yuan, 64.32 million yuan, and 27.96 million yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The domestic market experienced a low open followed by a high close, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346.72 points, up 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10749.46 points, up 1.16% [1][4] - Among 30 first-level industries, 16 saw an increase, with notable gains in the computer, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors, while comprehensive finance, real estate, and retail sectors faced significant declines [1][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 17448 billion, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3346.72 points, increasing by 14.24 points or 0.43% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10749.46 points, increasing by 122.83 points or 1.16% [4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.8%, and the STAR Market 50 Index increased by 0.53% [4] - The trading volume for the entire A-share market was 17448 billion, slightly down from the previous day [4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.41% [2][4] - Notable declines were seen in Procter & Gamble, which fell over 4%, and Travelers Group, which dropped nearly 2% [2] - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with notable increases in companies like WeRide, which surged 83.46%, and Kingsoft Cloud, which rose about 20% [2][4] Key Economic Data - In January, M2 grew by 7% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 0.4% [10][13] - New RMB loans in January amounted to 5.13 trillion, with a total social financing scale increase of 7.06 trillion, which is 583.3 billion more than the same period last year [10][13] - The total social financing scale stock reached 415.2 trillion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [10][13]

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 17 日 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 《哪吒 2》助力"谷子"消费热潮 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 2 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，终端需求疲软，宏观经济增长放缓， 重点 IP 热度波动的风险等。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（ ...

作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 随着公募基金2024年四季报进入密集披露期，顶流基金经理的调仓路径和投资思路也浮出水面。 Choice数据显示，四季报期间，上证指数上涨0.4%，沪深300指数下跌2.1%，创业板指数下跌1.5%， 恒生指数下跌5.1%，恒生中国企业指数下跌2.9%。 在四季度，股市整体呈现抗压态势，多头与空头交锋激烈，振幅较大，以上证指数为例，整体振幅高 达15.6%。 （来源：Choice数据） 因此风云君认为本次四季报中的业绩展示和调仓路径更能展示基金经理们的抗压能力及盈利思路，也 是其综合能力的体现。 接下来将对张坤、傅鹏博、李晓星等顶流基金经理的四季报进行研究。 管理规模继续缩水。 张坤：尝试在新领域中捕获盈利 1月21日，顶流基金经理张坤掌管的易方达蓝筹精选混合（005827.OF）、易方达优质企业三年持有 （009342.OF）、易方达优质精选混合（QDII）（110011.OF）、易方达亚洲精选股票（QDII）（118 001.OF）四只基金披露了2024年四季报。 从基金收益看，张坤掌管的4只基金在2024年四季度没有实现正收益，基金份额净值增长率从-6.6% 到-9 ...