4月7日 1 7 : 0 0 ，富时A5 0中国指数期货重开后走高，一度涨超3%，截至北京时间2 0 : 4 7，涨 幅为2 . 3 4%。该指数1 6 : 3 0收盘下跌8 . 4 5%。 | 富时中国A50期货 | | | | | W | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CN.SG | | | | | | | | | | | | | 昨结 | 11924 | 总手 | | | | 12203 | | | | 8.03万 | | | 11945 | | 现手 | | | +279 | +2.34% 十字 | | | | 3 | | | 估结算 | | 基 差 | | | 结算价 | | | | | 0.00 | | | EK | | FK | | | 分时 | 五日 글 K | | | 申念 | | | | | | 3.04% = | 12204 | | 12287.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue performance in 2024 due to fluctuations in defense demand and insufficient orders, with a projected revenue of 5.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.08%. The net profit is expected to be 347 million yuan, down 53.75% year-on-year. However, the gross margin is stable and slightly increasing, while the net profit margin is expected to decline due to rising operating expenses [2][12]. - The significant increase in inventory is aimed at ensuring short-term delivery, while the establishment of production capacity solidifies long-term growth certainty [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.025 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.08% year-on-year. The total profit was 408 million yuan, down 56.43% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 347 million yuan, a decline of 53.75% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.31%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 65 million yuan, down 141.72% year-on-year [6][12]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to increase by 0.35 percentage points to 38.34%, while the overall operating expense ratio is rising, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 5.94 percentage points to 8.04% [12]. Inventory and Demand - The company's inventory balance at the end of 2024 increased significantly to 1.851 billion yuan, reflecting proactive production and material reserves to ensure product delivery. The contract liabilities also increased to 137 million yuan, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 894 million yuan, 1.153 billion yuan, and 1.402 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 158%, 29%, and 22%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 29, 22, and 18 times [12].

Core Viewpoint - Aerospace Electric's 2024 annual report reveals a significant decline in revenue and profit, primarily due to a slowdown in defense demand, despite growth in civilian and international markets [1][4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, Aerospace Electric's total revenue was 5.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.08%, marking the first substantial decline in recent years [1][4]. - The primary reason for the revenue drop is the phase of reduced demand in the defense industry, which has historically been a core business area for the company [4]. Cost Management - The company achieved a reduction in operating costs, which amounted to 3.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.24%, attributed to the implementation of a cost-reduction plan [5]. - However, management expenses increased to 574 million yuan, a rise of 10.33% year-on-year, primarily due to higher salary costs associated with business expansion [6]. Research and Development - R&D expenses rose to 751 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.50%, as the company focuses on strategic emerging industries and future technologies [6]. Cash Flow and Accounts Receivable - The net cash flow from operating activities was -259 million yuan, a decline of 115.76% year-on-year, largely due to reduced accounts receivable recovery and increased material reserve funding [7]. - The company's "make-to-order" model, characterized by small batch and diverse product orders, has led to higher material reserves, further straining cash flow [7]. Overall Assessment - The overall performance of Aerospace Electric in 2024 is concerning, with defense demand slowdown being the main factor for revenue and profit decline. Despite some success in cost control and expansion into emerging markets, rising management expenses and cash flow pressures present significant challenges for future growth [7].