Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Group 1 - Retail sector saw a significant afternoon rally with Zhejiang Dongri (600113) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Yinzou Co. (600858) increased by over 7% [1] - Other companies such as Guofang Group (601086), Aiyingshi (603214), and Guoguang Chain (605188) also experienced upward movement [1] Group 2 - Dark pool funds are flowing into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the expected daily related transactions for 2025, which are deemed necessary for normal business operations and comply with fair trading principles [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Daily Related Transactions - The board of directors has approved the expected daily related transactions for 2025, with no need for shareholder meeting approval [1] - Independent directors have reviewed the transactions and confirmed they are normal and reasonable, adhering to fair trading principles [2] Previous Related Transactions - In 2024, the company did not engage in any related transactions with Shanxi Maoye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd [2] Related Party Information - Shanxi Maoye Real Estate has a registered capital of 11 million yuan and is involved in various retail sectors, with 100% ownership by the company [2] Financial Indicators - Key financial metrics for the related party over the last three years indicate total assets of 416,014 million yuan, total liabilities of 158,318 million yuan, and net profit of 2,867 million yuan [4] Expected Transaction Amount and Categories - The total expected amount for the new related transactions in 2025 is capped at 60 million yuan, primarily involving sales of goods between the company and Shanxi Maoye Real Estate [5][6] Pricing Policy - The pricing for these transactions will be based on market prices, industry standards, and government guidelines, ensuring fairness and transparency [6] Purpose and Impact of Related Transactions - The transactions aim to leverage the resources and channel advantages of the related party to expand the company's To B group purchasing business, enhancing operational efficiency and resilience against economic cycles [6][7] Risk Management - The company plans to use advance payment methods to mitigate performance risks and protect the interests of minority shareholders [7]

Core Insights - Sichuan's departure tax refund sales and refund amounts have both increased by over 200% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, indicating a strong growth in inbound tourism and retail consumption [1][2] - The province has 447 tax refund stores across 10 cities, with 103 "immediate refund" stores, ranking third in the country after Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] Group 1 - The implementation of the "immediate refund" pilot program by the Sichuan Provincial Taxation Bureau has moved the tax refund process from departure points to urban shopping areas, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" loop [2] - Chengdu Customs has significantly improved clearance efficiency, with an average verification time for tax refund items reduced to under 3 minutes, enhancing the travel experience for tourists [2] - The upcoming 2025 Chengdu World Sports Games is expected to further boost inbound tourism, with plans to establish 9 "immediate refund" pilot stores in key tourist areas [2] Group 2 - Multiple departments in Sichuan will collaborate to release lists of "Must Buy" tax refund products and "Must Go" stores, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers [2][3] - New service models such as centralized refunds, in-store refunds, and online refunds will be optimized to improve the tax refund shopping experience [2] - The promotion of tax refund product delivery services and the implementation of new verification models will enhance convenience and strengthen Sichuan's role as an international consumption hub [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - The total import and export value of goods was 38,098 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [1] Trade and Export Dynamics - The diversification strategy of China's export markets has shown effectiveness against the backdrop of trade frictions, with private enterprises expected to continue leading as the largest foreign trade entity [1][9] - In May, high-end manufacturing exports, including electromechanical products and integrated circuits, grew significantly by 7.4%, with private enterprises accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade, marking a record high [9][10] Consumer Market Recovery - The retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, the highest since 2024, driven by government subsidies, the early promotion of the "618" shopping festival, and holiday effects [3] - The "old for new" policy for consumer goods has positively impacted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment, with significant year-on-year growth rates [3] Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with ongoing efforts to stabilize and restore market confidence [2][6] - New housing prices in major cities have seen a narrowing of year-on-year declines, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [6][7] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to enhance support for private enterprises in technology innovation and brand building, shifting foreign trade development from "price competition" to "quality competition" [1][10] - The government is encouraged to implement localized standards for "good housing" to improve residential quality and adapt to regional differences [8]

Global Asset Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined last week, while commodity prices generally increased. The Nikkei 225 rose by 1.50%, emerging market stock index increased by 0.05%, S&P 500 fell by 0.15%, developed market stock index decreased by 0.30%, Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.51%, and Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [1][3] - Commodity prices saw significant increases, with IPE Brent crude futures up by 2.85%, S&P-Goldman Commodity Index rising by 2.30%, South China Commodity Index increasing by 2.29%, and COMEX copper up by 1.74%. However, London gold spot price decreased by 1.91% [1][3] - In the bond market, domestic 10Y government bond futures prices rose by 0.30%, and the total price index of China bonds increased by 0.16%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.38% [1][3] Economic Indicators in the U.S. - U.S. industrial output fell both year-on-year and month-on-month in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.13% compared to 0.55% in the previous month, and a month-on-month growth rate of -0.21% compared to -0.10% [6][10] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in the U.S. decreased to 77.43%, while the manufacturing capacity utilization rate slightly increased to 76.73% [6] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June remained unchanged at -4.0, showing improvement from April's -26.4 [8] - New private housing starts in the U.S. fell by 4.56% year-on-year in May, and retail and food service sales also declined by 3.29% year-on-year [10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. However, inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed lowering its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [24] - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that its anti-inflation measures are nearly complete, with a cautious stance on future rate cuts, although market expectations suggest a potential rate cut later in the year [25] - The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5% and will slow the pace of bond purchase reductions starting in the fiscal year 2026 [26]

【资讯导读】 ·日本大幅削减超长期国债发行规模 ·美国参众两院联手限制总统战争权力 ·英国零售销售环比暴跌创最大跌幅纪录 ·国际油轮运费飙升部分航线涨幅达2.5倍 【市场资讯】 ·美国参众两院发起决议，旨在限制总统发动战争的权力。由共和党与民主党议员共同提出，强调国会 权威，并指出当前美国未面临紧急威胁，同时批评了在国会休会期间未向议员通报情况的做法。 ·美国最高法院拒绝加快处理对特朗普关税政策的法律挑战，维持原定30天回复期限，而非申请中要求 的更短时间。 ·一名联邦法官发布初步禁令，暂停特朗普政府禁止哈佛大学招收国际学生的决定，确保哈佛大学在此 案审理期间仍可继续接收国际学生。 ·美联储：劳动力市场稳健，继续观望政策 ·日本核心CPI连续45个月上升，5月同比上涨3.7%，其中粳米价格同比翻倍以上增长。 ·英国零售销售5月环比下降2.7%，远低于预期，创下自2023年12月以来最大跌幅。 ·波罗的海重油油轮指数显示，过去一周国际平均运费上涨12%，部分航线运费涨幅高达2.5倍。 【全球市场动态】 ·道琼斯工业指数上涨0.08%报42206.82点，标准普尔500指数下跌0.22%报5967.84点，纳斯达 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 热点思考：美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但CPI表现较弱。 密歇根大学1年通胀预期 一度飙升至6.6%，4月11日以来10Y美债隐含通胀预期上行13BP，进口价格指数也在4月、5月明显上涨。 但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5月CPI环比仅0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。 1）1-5月油价走弱拖累整体 通胀，但6月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持续性较强；3）关税 对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is significantly boosting inbound consumption and expanding domestic demand in China [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The departure tax refund policy has led to a 116% year-on-year increase in the number of tax refund transactions and a 56% increase in sales at tax refund stores in its first month of implementation [1] - The number of departure tax refund stores has increased to 5,196, which is 1.4 times the number at the end of 2024 [1] - The policy includes eight measures aimed at expanding the number of tax refund stores, enriching the range of refundable goods, and improving service levels [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The policy is expected to enhance the shopping experience for foreign travelers, thereby increasing their willingness to spend and stimulating domestic consumption [2][3] - The growth of tax refund stores and the optimization of their layout are contributing to the prosperity of the retail sector, providing broader market opportunities for domestic enterprises [2][3] - The departure tax refund policy is seen as a key to unlocking a trillion-yuan inbound consumption market, facilitating China's transition from a "world factory" to a "global consumption hub" [3] Group 3: Regional Innovations and Developments - Various regions are innovating their processes and services, such as Beijing establishing centralized refund points and Shanghai introducing self-service tax refund machines [2][3] - Shenzhen has launched a "one order, one package" model for customs inspection and has set up a dedicated departure tax refund area at a national cultural industry expo [2][3] Group 4: Future Optimization Suggestions - There is potential for further optimization of the departure tax refund policy, including expanding the range of refundable goods and enhancing digital services for refunds [4] - Improving inter-departmental coordination and reducing unnecessary procedures can enhance visitor satisfaction [4] - Increasing awareness and usage of the policy through better promotion and considering international collaborations for tax refund services can further enhance China's attractiveness as a shopping destination [4]

Group 1 - The national consumption market has experienced a new wave of enthusiasm since mid-June, significantly boosted by the mid-year promotional season [1] - This year's promotional activities started earlier and lasted longer than in previous years, with major e-commerce platforms beginning pre-sale promotions in mid-May, lasting over a month [1] - AI-related products and domestic brands have gained considerable attention, with over 70% of the top 100 brands in terms of consumption heat being Chinese brands, and searches for "AI elements" and "intangible cultural heritage elements" products increasing by over 120% and 270% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 2 - The consumption vitality in lower-tier markets is robust, with order volume in rural areas increasing by over 130% and the number of users growing by over 140% year-on-year [5] - The retail industry in China has maintained an expansion trend for 10 consecutive months, driven by online promotional activities and the "old-for-new" policy [5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023 [7]