新闻聚焦 ◐ 2025年1 2月全国新增建档立卡新能源发电项目共6 233个。 2月3日，国家能源局发布2 02 5年1 2月全国新增建档立卡新能源发 电（不含户用光伏）项目情况。2025年12月，全国新增建档立卡新能源发电（不含户用光伏）项目共6 233个，其中风电项目36 个，光伏发电项目619 0个（集中式光伏发电项目48个，工商业分布式光伏发电项目614 2个），生物质发电项目7个。 国内新闻 ◐ 国内成品油价格按机制调整。 据国家发改委网站2月3日消息，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均 价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上 涨2 05元和1 95元。 ◐ 山东公示一批关停并转低效燃煤机组名单。 据山东能源局网站消息，2月2日，山东省能源局公示淄博、潍坊、滨州、菏泽市 已关停并转低效燃煤机组名单，共计3 0台机组，装机容量合计49.05万千瓦。 国际新闻 ◐ 特朗普称墨西哥将停止向古巴输油。 据新华社华报道，美国总统特朗普2月2日称，墨西哥将停止向古巴输送石油。当天有媒 体在白宫提问，美国同古巴谈 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the tech sector as major companies like Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta saw significant drops [3] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.12% to $64.08 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 2.88% to $68.21 per barrel, reflecting a positive trend in the energy sector [4] - European stock indices closed slightly lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.07%, France's CAC40 down 0.02%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.26%, indicating a cautious market environment in Europe [5] Group 2 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released a document focusing on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for technological innovation in agriculture and the development of key agricultural technologies [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China highlighted the importance of advancing in fields such as 6G, quantum technology, and bio-manufacturing, aiming for breakthroughs in these future industries [9] - The People's Bank of China announced an operation to conduct 800 billion yuan of reverse repos to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [10] Group 3 - The recent news regarding the "couple's online purchase of contaminated vegetables" led to legal actions against the individuals involved for extortion, showcasing the legal implications of consumer safety issues [11] - The incident at Lingyin Temple, where 380,000 reservations were made but many did not show up, prompted a review of the reservation system to improve attendance and manage visitor expectations [12] - Reports of potential increases in VAT rates for the gaming and financial sectors were dismissed by experts, reinforcing the stability of current tax policies in these industries [13] Group 4 - The announcement of a large-scale robot gala by Zhiyuan Robotics, set to be broadcasted globally, signifies a growing interest in integrating robotics with entertainment, potentially influencing the tech and entertainment sectors [21] - The response from Chaozhou Jewelry regarding quality concerns over their products, backed by authoritative testing, aims to maintain brand reputation and consumer trust [23] - Tencent's revival of the classic QQ Farm game is expected to enhance user engagement and interaction, reflecting a trend in leveraging nostalgia in gaming [24]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have seen a peak of 110,000 yuan/ton on January 30, followed by a decline of 2.82%, and a further drop to 98,500 yuan/ton by February 2, marking a decrease of over 9% [1][2] - The demand for copper remains strong in the medium to long term, driven by sectors such as renewable energy, electricity, and AI computing, with the domestic air conditioning industry consuming approximately 850,000 tons of copper annually [1][4] - The supply side shows limited short-term increases from major copper suppliers, with declining ore grades affecting production, particularly at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and Southern Copper [3] Group 2 - The copper market's medium to long-term outlook remains unchanged, with expectations of gradual price recovery, although not as rapid as before [3] - The overall price trend for non-ferrous metals is projected to rise significantly by 2025, influenced by capital flows and market sentiment [2] - Major air conditioning companies, such as Midea Group and Haier, have reported revenue growth despite rising copper prices, with Midea achieving 363.06 billion yuan in revenue, a 13.82% increase year-on-year [5][6] Group 3 - Companies are actively engaging in commodity hedging to mitigate cost pressures from fluctuating raw material prices, with Midea and Haier planning to conduct hedging activities valued at up to 6 billion yuan and 5.46 billion yuan, respectively [6][7] - The industry is witnessing a consensus on price increases to offset rising raw material costs, with estimates suggesting a 3%-5% price hike could cover the impact of copper prices at 105,000 yuan/ton [7]

本报北京2月3日电（记者蒋菡）记者从中国有色金属工业协会今天举行的新闻发布会上获悉，2025年， 有色金属行业在内外复杂环境的多重考验下，坚守高质量发展主线，全年运行呈现"稳中向好、质效双 升"的良好态势，行业效益水平创下历史新高，尽显"传统产业焕发朝阳活力"的发展韧性。 下游应用领域的升级迭代和拓展，为有色金属行业创造了新的增长极。航空航天、新能源（如新能源汽 车、光伏）、新一代信息技术、AI等战略性新兴产业的快速发展，对有色金属产品的市场需求持续扩 大。这种以新质生产力为核心的需求拉动，正推动行业产品结构加速向高附加值领域升级，为效益增长 注入动力。 2025年，规模以上有色金属工业企业实现利润总额5284.5亿元，较上年增长25.6%，创历史新高。 （来源：工人日报） 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森分析，国家一系列稳增长政策落地见效，"两新"政策行动深入推 进，货币政策与积极财政政策协同发力，为实体经济发展、基础设施投资提供有力支撑，直接拉动铜、 铝等大宗金属消费需求。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a "V-shaped" trend with a total trading volume of 2.67 trillion yuan, despite a slight contraction in volume [1][5] - The market showed a good profit effect with 4,856 stocks closing in the green, particularly in technology sectors such as military, machinery, and power equipment, as well as resource sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, and chemicals [1][12] Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29% to 4,067.74 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86% to 3,324.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index climbed by 2.19% [5] - Technology and resource stocks rebounded significantly, with specialized equipment, aerospace, optoelectronic devices, and fertilizers showing notable gains [6][12] - Among the 31 first-level industries, all but the banking sector saw gains, with 24 sectors rising over 1%, and the comprehensive sector up by 5.63% [7][11] Notable Stocks - In the machinery sector, 11 related stocks hit the daily limit, including Robotech, which surged by 20%, and other stocks like Jieput and Oatmeal Technology also saw significant increases [9][10] - The power equipment sector experienced a surge with 16 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Zairun New Energy and Aotwei, both rising by nearly 20% [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector rebounded, with notable gains from companies like Xiaocheng Technology, which rose by 18.67% [11] Market Sentiment and Outlook - Despite the positive market performance, there remains a cautious sentiment among investors, with concerns about the sustainability of the rebound due to pre-holiday risk aversion [3][15] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound is primarily driven by emotional recovery and technical corrections rather than strong fundamental support, indicating a potential for short-term volatility [12][16] - The market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with a likelihood of further fluctuations before establishing a more stable upward trend [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 成长占优，大小盘表现差异收敛 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202602） 展望 2 月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。日 历效应显示 2 月小盘、成长风格的胜率相对更高，考虑到市场仍处春季行情阶 段，风格层面继续推荐成长风格，大小盘表现差异有望收敛，先大盘后小盘。推 荐指数主要包括中证 1000、创业板 50、300 质量、800 信息等。 ❑流动性与资金供需：2 月增量资金或继续净流入，节前外资有望继续净流入， 节后融资有望回流。宏观流动性方面，政府债券在 1 月集中发行缴款，对流动 性形成一定抽水效应。央行采取了精准有力的对冲措施，通过中期流动性工具 弥补资金缺口，2 月资金面有望继续保持平稳充裕。外部流动性方面，从特朗 普新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策主张来看，沃什更可能采取温和且渐进的降 息策略，其更倾向于将降息与缩减资产负债表（缩表）配合，以对冲宽松效应， 避免通胀反弹。目前市场对 2026 年的降息预期从原先的 1 次上调至 2 次。股 票市场资金供需方面，1 月股票市场可跟踪资金转为净流出，融资成为主力增 ...

2026/2/3 有色金属周度观点 国投期货 研究院有色全属团队 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关注M40 60日线点价买槛。1)行情:加速期,上周铜以极端速度基本免现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标,且价格明显与供求基本面背 | | | | | 离。铜资源溢价已快速降温,短线价格顶部高位可能形成对资金配置交易的阶段性震慑,基本金属交投可能转向基本面。2)国内供 | | | | | 篇:,一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调,在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证明、也不能证伪的阶段,资金仍可能依托技术形态,在 | | | | | 关键支撑位重返铜配置领向,同时需要关注国内产业端春节前的备货点价。周一SBL上海铜贴水130元、广东铜贴水扩至265元,洋山铜溢 | | | 1 | 把 | 价反弹回39美元,SM七地库存升至33万吨。高硫酸价格支持下,国内饰厂1月仍以稳健增产为主。倾向铜材类产品1-2月开工率明显低于 | | | | | 去年同期相对高开工水平。反映在沪铜价差上,长线叙事驱动与供需弱现实强化正向市场结构。3》海外:方铜 ...

Core Insights - In early 2026, ETF fund flows showed significant divergence, with core broad-based ETFs experiencing large net outflows, while industry-themed ETFs gained popularity and saw substantial inflows [1][9] - The preference for industry-themed ETFs highlights a consensus among investors regarding the support from industrial policies and the positive fundamentals in specific sectors [1][6] ETF Performance - As of January 31, 2026, 14 ETFs had their scales increase by over 10 billion yuan, including 7 stock ETFs, 4 commodity ETFs, 2 cross-border ETFs, and 1 bond ETF [3] - Notable increases in scale included the Huaan Gold ETF (335.4 billion yuan), Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF (242.17 billion yuan), and Huaxia Nonferrous Metals ETF (169.52 billion yuan) [4][7] - The stock ETFs that saw significant scale growth were primarily industry-focused, indicating a market signal for bullish sentiment in related sectors [5][6] Market Trends - The overall ETF fund flow in January 2026 reflected a structural shift, with significant net outflows from core broad-based ETFs and inflows into industry-specific ETFs and gold [9][10] - The A-share market experienced a transition from exuberance to cooling, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points before entering a consolidation phase [9][11] Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest that the market in February will likely experience volatility, with a focus on "growth and cyclical" dual strategies while being cautious of overheating sectors [11][12] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on global manufacturing recovery, traditional industry improvements, and technology growth, particularly in AI applications and robotics [12][13]

前期涨得有多"狂热"，近期跌得就有多"血腥"。 众所周知，因各国央行不断增持黄金作为美元的替代品，以及地缘政治风险加剧，黄金的涨势已持续多年。前几周，在中国"投机资金"的集中买入大力助推 下——即从个人投资者到涉足大宗商品的大型股票基金都大举购买，进而将黄金、白银等等金属价格推至新的纪录高位。 据wind数据显示， 2026年1月，伦敦现货黄金从4318美元起步，1月29日盘中最高至5598美元，月度涨幅达28.18%;COMEX黄金期货则最高至5626.8美元，一 个月内涨幅超1300美元。与此同时，国际银价格也开启暴涨模式，伦敦银现1月初约70美元/盎司，1月下旬最高破117美元/盎司;开年至1月下旬涨幅超60%， 1月单月涨幅超38%。 COMEX白银期货1月30日盘中最高至120美元/盎司，创历史峰值。 这场史诗级的暴涨，也为日后的史诗级暴跌增加了更多戏剧性。 上周五，白银单日暴跌26%创历史最大跌幅，黄金重挫9%遭遇逾十年来最糟糕的单日表现。而铜价在突然飙升至每吨14500美元上方后高位跳水，堪称一场 史诗级崩盘。与此同时，暴跌行情亦在中国有色金属板块上演，1月29日至2月22日，港股有色金属板块累 ...

或由于现货黄金重回4900美元，完全收复昨日跌幅，今日（2月3日）有色ETF华宝（159876）强势反 弹，场内价格最高飙涨超6.7%，最终收涨6.4%，一举收复20日均线。 成份股方面，湖南黄金涨停，中稀有色涨超8%，涨幅居前。权重股方面，紫金矿业、北方稀土涨超 6%，洛阳钼业涨逾4%，中国铝业涨超3%。 有色金属为何能够强势反弹？或可从两方面进行拆解： 1、市场"误判"新美联储主席，降息是获提名前提 高盛指出，沃什愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件，并且不认为沃什会推动资产负债表大幅缩减， 因美联储内部对"充足准备金"框架有广泛支持。沃什可能不会真正推动重启量化紧缩，因为这对风险资 产的破坏性太大。* 2、地缘政治扰动，"战略自主"重要性凸显 巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是"扩张性财政+关税通胀"。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约 束，投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧因政策不确定性而加剧。德意志银行指出，继俄罗斯储备被冻结后， 全球央行"战略自主"需求凸显。黄金的储备地位从"收益驱动"转向"生存驱动"*。 黄金牛市还在吗？近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为"技术性洗盘"，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000 美 ...