Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has been declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market has been fluctuating widely. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. - The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try going long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - In the context of international instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [2]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, SCFIS (European route) was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [2]. d. Contract Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, with a decline of 3.11%, a trading volume of 1.67 million lots, and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haitong Development, is a leading player in the domestic private dry bulk shipping sector, benefiting from the depreciation of the Renminbi and expanding its operations in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. Company Overview - Haitong Development is primarily engaged in domestic coastal and international ocean dry bulk transportation, with a significant focus on coal transportation in the Bohai Sea to Yangtze River route [2][7]. - The company was established on March 19, 2009, and went public on March 29, 2023, with its main revenue sources being shipping income (90.84%) and other income (9.16%) [7]. - As of June 30, 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.14% to 86.87 million yuan [7]. Financial Performance - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 65.04% of total revenue, benefiting from the depreciation of the Renminbi [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 266 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [8]. Market Activity - On September 30, the stock price of Haitong Development increased by 1.69%, with a trading volume of 109 million yuan and a turnover rate of 4.39%, bringing the total market capitalization to 8.37 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has shown no significant trend in major capital inflows, with a net outflow of 313,700 yuan on the day [4][5]. Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of the stock is 8.88 yuan, with the current price approaching a resistance level of 9.09 yuan, indicating potential for a price correction if this level is not surpassed [6].

中新网海南洋浦9月29日电 (房广杰 谢梦茹)海南自贸港"航运争议多元解纷中心"29日在海南洋浦揭牌， 这是海南自贸港首个整合调解、仲裁、诉讼、事故处置功能的"四位一体"航运争议解决平台，将为服 务"西部陆海新通道国际航运枢纽"建设、优化自贸港法治化营商环境提供关键支撑。 海南海事局纪检组组长刘浩介绍，海南自贸港"航运争议多元解纷中心"于今年5月签署协作备忘录，6月 首案成功调处，经过四个多月的机制搭建与流程打磨，将为航运主体提供更高效、更便捷的纠纷解决服 务。 海南自贸港"航运争议多元解纷中心"揭牌。洋浦海事局 供图 洋浦海事局介绍，截至9月28日，该中心已接收航运纠纷咨询50余件，正式受理15件，成功调解15件， 其中包括1起涉外案件，平均调解用时仅5.6天，当事人满意率达100%。 8月15日，航运争议多元解纷中心接到某外国航运公司"巴亚迪利XX"与中国某船员服务企业的经济纠纷 申请。由于涉及涉外主体，中心迅速启动"多语种专家库"支持，联合海南国际仲裁院、海口海事法院洋 浦法庭开展跨部门协同调解，仅用7天便促成双方达成协议，展现了自贸港背景下涉外纠纷的高效化解 能力。 海口海事法院洋浦法庭庭长雷鸣表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "I am a Shareholder" organized by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and other institutions aims to enhance communication between listed companies and investors, promoting rational, value, and long-term investment in the market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy Transportation Company (招商轮船, 601872) was established in 1872, making it the first national industrial enterprise in modern China, with a mission to revitalize national shipping rights [2][3] - The company was listed on the A-share market in 2006, symbolizing a new starting point for its century-old shipping legacy [2] Group 2: Recent Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.125 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to high-quality growth [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.70 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 565 million yuan, which represents 41.22% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5] Group 3: Fleet and Operations - By the end of 2024, the company will operate and manage 349 vessels with a total deadweight of 49.49 million tons, ranking second among non-financial shipowners globally [6] - The company has the largest fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOC) in the world, with its dry bulk and LNG fleets also ranking among the top globally [6] Group 4: ESG and Future Strategy - The company emphasizes its commitment to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives, aiming to become a growth-oriented shipping platform while adopting advanced energy-saving technologies and exploring alternative materials for energy transition [7] - The management highlighted the importance of AI technology and large models in enhancing operational efficiency and smart capabilities in shipping [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodity prices, highlighting the mixed performance across sectors, with some showing strength due to external factors like overseas interest rate cuts and supply disruptions in Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 865 points as of September 29, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the end of August, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 3.8% month-on-month [1][4]. - Domestic demand for bulk commodities saw most prices increase, with glass and coking coal futures rising by 15.2% and 2.1% respectively, while chemical products and cement prices saw slight declines [9][10]. - The South China comprehensive index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.0% compared to the previous 3.3% [9][10]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index for four first-tier cities showing changes of -0.7%, -0.4%, 1.6%, and -0.2% respectively compared to the last week of August [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors showed strong price performance, with the photovoltaic industry composite index rising by 6.9% month-on-month, and the DXI index for the semiconductor sector increasing by 25.7% [11][11]. Group 4: Non-Food Prices - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, slightly increased to 100.20 as of September 29, with notable increases in housing, daily necessities, and transportation services [14]. - In the export shipping sector, container shipping prices generally declined, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% [14][15]. Group 5: Logistics and Food Prices - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous 0.8% [18]. - Food prices showed mixed trends, with a 3.1% decrease in the average wholesale price of pork, while key vegetable prices rose by 1.4% [19].

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [2]. d. Market Conditions and Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long at around 1600 for the 12 and 02 contracts. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold positions stubbornly. Set stop - losses [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [2]. e. Contract - related Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 1.67 million lots and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcement nodes, high operation space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating, and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts for December and February are still high, but they may still fluctuate in the short term under the poor implementation expectations in October and the expected price increase in November. The current valuation of the April contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, with attention to the fact that low liquidity may cause short - term disturbances [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1115.0, with a decline of 2.11%, the trading volume was 16679, the open interest was 29314, and the open interest change was - 3117. For EC2512, the closing price was 1756.3, with a decline of 1.16%, the trading volume was 11879, the open interest was 20683, and the open interest change was - 1012. Similar data are provided for other contracts like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 [2] - The monthly spreads such as EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 also have their respective changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Spot Market - The SCEIS SCFI (European line) index on September 29, 2025, was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 10.71% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 614.14, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period [2] Current European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of September and early October (week 40 - 41). The average quotation for week 40 - 41 is 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). For week 42, MSK's opening quotation is 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and some shipping companies have announced price increases after the holiday [4] News - On September 30, it was reported that Hamas is unlikely to accept Trump's Gaza peace plan. The new cease - fire plan put forward by US President Trump is essentially an ultimatum to Hamas, and it is predicted that the US will use Hamas' possible rejection to "portray Palestinians as obstacles to peace" [5]

2025 年 9 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注宣涨与地缘事件发酵 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,115.0 | -3.11% | 16,679 | 29,314 | -3,117 | 0.57 | | 0.68 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,756.3 | -1.36% | 11,879 | 20,683 | -1,012 | 0.57 | | 0.89 | | | EC2602 | 1,667.0 | -1.47% | 4,011 | 8,852 | 84 | 0.45 | | 0.74 | | | EC2510 - EC ...