上证指数站稳5日线，MACD红柱放大，短期趋势确实强。但30分钟级别顶背离已经出现三次，就像开车遇到急转弯，得踩踩刹车。历史经验告诉我们，快 速突破后如果量能跟不上，5%-8%的回撤很正常。所以咱们得盯紧量能——今天要是早盘半小时成交量破3000亿，指数冲3400点才有戏；要是缩量冲高，该 减仓就得减。 第三，聪明钱在悄悄换赛道 老铁们好，这里是帮主郑重每天的盘前策略时间。老规矩，咱们不整虚的，直接上干货，拆解这波行情里的机会和门道。 先说个大实话：昨天A股这根放量长阳，成交额1.3万亿，北向资金狂买118亿，确实够劲爆！但别急着喊牛市，咱们得看清楚这波行情的底层逻辑。 军工板块集体爆发不是偶然，成飞概念股涨停潮背后，是政策对高端制造的持续加码。科技这边更热闹，人形机器人、AI算力、低空经济这些赛道全线开 花，消费电子更是被中美关税松绑的消息点燃。但别光看热闹，得看资金往哪流——北向资金昨天118亿真金白银砸向科技成长股，说明外资对中国产业升 级的信心回来了。 第二，技术面强但别贪杯 2. 死磕主线：科技成长（AI算力、机器人）、新能源（固态电池）、消费电子（关税松绑受益股）这三个方向，重点看有技术突破的龙头 ...

每日经济新闻消息，5月12日，市场全天高开高走，创业板指领涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.82%，深成指 涨1.72%，创业板指涨2.63%。 板块方面，军工、轨交设备、机器人、消费电子等板块涨幅居前，农业、创新药、电力、代糖概念等板 块跌幅居前。 个股涨多跌少，全市场超4100只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.31万亿元，较上个交易日放量1164 亿。 近期持续火热的军工板块，今天又是A股主角。 个股方面，市值2500多亿元的中航成飞（302132）低开高走，收盘20cm涨停，3天2板；全天成交额 97.39亿元，仅次于午后放量的东方财富（112.48亿元）；其早间的强势拉升，带动了多只军工股掀起涨 停潮。 | 英型代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | 周涨跌幅 跟踪指数名称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主 512710 | 军工龙头ETF | 5.53% | 15.30 Z | 4.68% | 5.85% 军工龙头 | | 主 512670 | 国防ETF | 5.05% | 5.30 Z | 7.77% | 5.47% 中证国防 | | ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - Chengfei Integration (002190) achieved a 10.01% increase over 4 consecutive trading days, driven by military industry factors [3] - Tianjian Technology also saw a 10.01% rise over 4 days, attributed to annual work and business developments [3] - Lijun Co. (002651) recorded a 9.96% increase over 4 days, linked to military industry trends [3] - Aerospace Nanhai (航天南湖) experienced a significant 19.99% rise over 3 days, driven by military industry factors [3] - Qifeng Precision (七丰精工) surged by 29.97% over 3 days, influenced by automotive and high-tech sectors [3] Group 2: New Stock Listings and Innovations - Guihang Co. debuted with a 9.97% increase, focusing on military applications [4] - Leike Defense (雷科防务) launched with a 10.02% rise, associated with annual work and satellite technology [4] - Huaru Technology (华如科技) saw a 19.98% increase upon its first listing, driven by military industry factors [4] - The humanoid robot company Songyan Power introduced a new generation of bionic robots, enhancing features such as high degrees of freedom and customizable appearances [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Factors - The recent US-China economic talks held on May 10-11 in Geneva resulted in constructive discussions and significant progress, impacting various sectors including textiles and consumer electronics [10][12] - The solid-state battery market is gaining attention with new product launches from companies like Better Ray and Guoxuan High-Tech scheduled for mid-May [15]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Environment**: - April CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value -0.4%), with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% (previous value -0.1%) [1] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value -1.4%) [1] - PPI year-on-year decline expanded to 2.7% [1] Key Points - **Tariffs and Trade Negotiations**: - China will not sacrifice its principles for a deal with the U.S. [1] - Trump reported a successful meeting in Switzerland with China, discussing many issues and reaching consensus [1] - Significant progress was noted by Bessent, with Greer stating differences are not as large as imagined [1] - The negotiation phases outlined include: - Phase 1: Initial contact and breaking the ice (May-June 2025) - Phase 2: Mechanism establishment focusing on unilateral tariff concessions (July-September 2025) - Phase 3: Substantial negotiation period on core issues (Q4 2025 to Q1 2026) [2] - Short-term comprehensive agreement is unlikely; a reduction to 65% is deemed low probability due to bilateral trade not reaching the threshold [2] - Post-negotiation, tariffs are expected to be reduced by more than half, with the U.S. and China at 54% and 34% respectively [2] - **Robotics Sector**: - U Tree Technology is facing a significant shortage of personnel across all positions [2] - Tesla's new Gen3 robot may feature a universal joint for increased flexibility [2] - Cathie Wood indicated that Tesla's robot progress is faster than expected [2] - **Military Industry**: - India and Pakistan announced a complete ceasefire [3] - The U.S. is forming new forces to address potential conflicts with China [3] - Global military trade sales are projected at $111.6 billion in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for $42.33 billion (37.92%) and China at $3.22 billion (2.88%) [3] - Tungsten prices have risen to 324,000 yuan/ton, a 12% increase since the beginning of the year, marking a three-year high [4] - **Artificial Intelligence**: - OpenAI's CEO hinted at a willingness to collaborate with Musk on AGI development, with plans to release the first open-source model in summer [5] - Nvidia is expected to release a revised H20 chip in July [5] - Alibaba's core strategies are focused on "e-commerce and cloud + AI" [5] - **Solid-State Batteries**: - The 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange Conference will be held from May 15-17, 2025 [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech and Bettery are set to release new solid-state battery products on May 13 and May 16 respectively [6] - **Consumer Sector**: - The central bank issued a notice regarding the establishment of service consumption and pension re-loans [9] - **Market Dynamics**: - Concerns about indices returning to pre-tariff levels persist, despite mitigating factors like transshipment trade [14] - Sectors showing potential include beauty care, banking, and textiles, with military stocks experiencing volatility [14] - The solid-state battery sector is also witnessing individual stock movements [15]

Data Elements - The State Council approved the draft "Regulations on Government Data Sharing," aiming to break down data barriers while ensuring data security, promoting public services, and enhancing economic development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission released the "China Business Environment Development Report (2025)," highlighting data as a core driver of economic innovation [1] - The advancement of government data sharing is expected to benefit data governance service providers and privacy computing technology companies, with a focus on cloud computing, big data platforms, and data security technology [1] Brain-Computer Interface - Fudan University launched China's first online platform for "Brain-Computer Interface Patents and Intellectual Property" during the "2025 Pujiang Innovation Forum" [2] - The brain-computer interface technology is seen as a strategic point in global tech competition, reshaping brain science research and offering breakthroughs in brain disease treatment [2] - The industry is in its early stages of commercialization, with significant support from the government leading to growth in market size, number of companies, and technological innovation [2] Solid-State Batteries - The 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange and Expo (CIBF2025) will take place from May 15 to 17, focusing on advanced battery technologies [3] - Companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Better Ray are set to launch new solid-state battery products, coinciding with accelerated overseas production and domestic material capacity [3] - Solid-state batteries are expected to meet the growing performance demands in various emerging industries, with significant market growth potential anticipated in the coming years [3] National Economic Development Zones - The State Council is advancing reforms in national economic and technological development zones to promote high-level opening and high-quality development [4] - The zones are transitioning from traditional manufacturing bases to open, innovative, and green economic hubs, with new business models emerging in data cross-border flow and green finance [4] - By 2025, the total output value of national economic development zones is projected to reach 15 trillion yuan, accounting for 20% of national GDP [4] 5G-A Technology - 5G-A (5G-Advanced) is gaining visibility among consumers, enhancing coverage in dense areas and industrial applications [5] - As an upgraded version of 5G, 5G-A is expected to increase speeds by tenfold and redefine communication boundaries, driving growth in smart manufacturing and low-altitude economies [5] - Investment in 5G-A in China is projected to reach 120 billion yuan by 2025, stimulating growth in related industries such as chips and base stations [5] Energy Storage - A breakthrough in bionic self-generating energy storage concrete technology has been achieved, which can generate electricity in temperature-variable environments [6] - This technology addresses the instability of clean energy supply and offers a low-carbon solution for the construction industry [6] Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia plans to launch a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip in response to U.S. export restrictions, aiming to maintain its market presence in China [7] - The downgraded chip will have reduced specifications, particularly in memory capacity, but may still be adjustable by downstream customers [7] - Nvidia's revenue from the Chinese market was $17 billion last fiscal year, accounting for 13% of total sales [7] Robotics - The humanoid robot startup Songyan Power introduced a new female humanoid robot named Xiaonuo, featuring advanced interaction capabilities and customizable appearances [8] - The sales of humanoid robots are expected to accelerate, potentially leading to a market scale exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2025, capturing over 50% of the global market [8]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth trends[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The model identifies sectors with recovery potential ("困境反转型板块") and growth opportunities. It recommends sectors such as healthcare (恒生医疗), export-related consumer sectors (e.g., light industry and home appliances), and technology sectors (信创, communication, solid-state batteries). Additionally, it highlights sectors with ongoing upward trends, such as banking and gold[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, emphasizing sectors with recovery potential and growth trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying technology-related sectors with growth potential[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model recommends technology sectors, including 信创, communication, and solid-state batteries, based on their growth potential and market trends[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies technology sectors with strong growth potential, aligning with market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market conditions by analyzing the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine market trends[2][9][14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index 2. Calculate the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ - Latest values: 20-day MA = 4946, 120-day MA = 5088 - Difference = -2.80% (previous week: -3.63%) 3. Monitor the absolute value of the difference; when it falls below 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[2][9][14] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear signal for market consolidation, aiding in timing decisions[2][9][14] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index: - PE ratio: 50th percentile (medium level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend a 60% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and market trends[3][10] Backtesting Results of Models - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **Timing System Model**: - Latest moving average difference: -2.80% - Previous week difference: -3.63% - Absolute difference < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase[2][9][14] - **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 60%[3][10]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 2025(第三届)中国固态电池 技术发展与市场展望高峰论坛 时间 7月8-9日 地点 中国·上海 -主办- 鑫椤资讯 发言嘉宾 I C C S I N O 邀请函 华南师范大学邢震宇 就 硫化锂纳米粉体材料产业化 议题，在 鑫椤资讯·7月8日-9日·上海·浦东假日酒店 举办"2025（第三届）中国固态电池技术发展与市场应用高峰论坛 做主题演讲。 ICCSINO 论坛议题 部分为拟邀企业 固态电池产业现状及发展前景 合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司 固态电池在动力市场的技术及产品路径 清陶(昆山)能源发展集团股份有限公司 华南师范大学 固态电池在储能领域的可行性及产品方案 北京卫蓝新能源科技股份有限公司/ 卫蓝海博（淄博）新能源科技有限公司 固态电池在低空市场产品开发思路 孚能科技（赣州）股份有限公司 固态电池工艺制造难点及解决方案 北京新能源汽车股份有限公司 等静压工艺在全固态电池中的应用现状及可行性 宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司 干法工艺在固态电池中的应用 无锡先导智能装备股份有限公司 新型无机固态电解质的合成与性能优 ...

2025.04. 29 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴（午休版） 推荐阅读 多地宣布发钱奖励结婚！ 截至午盘，上证指数报3287.45点，跌0.03%，深成指报9863.9点，涨0.09%，创业板指报1935.35 点，涨0.05%。PEEK材料概念股爆发，宠物经济、人形机器人、CRO、医美、固态电池、消费电 子、AI算力题材涨幅居前；电力股大幅调整，白酒、统一大市场、零售、免税店概念股走弱。 机构观点 中泰证券投顾邓天认为，目前市场处于修复阶段，预计大盘仍可能延续盘整。在操作上，随着年报、 季报陆续公布，个股不确定性大大降低，活跃资金有望重获定价权。短线可关注科技板块是否有技术 突破和基本面改善。长线可增配基建、光伏、军工等低估资产。 前海波本基金有限公司投资总监晋军认为，市场强势攀升趋势不改，料关税争端尘埃落定前，中期市 场或延续其强劲韧性。短期指数运行至前期3319至3288重压区域难免承压，但节前市场无忧。待一 季报集中披露期后，尤其是节后补缺完成，应加强防范短期回落风险。 作者 | 第一财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Delong Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. (德尔股份) reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 22.7382 million yuan, up 276% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.22 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 15.13% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.7382 million yuan, marking a substantial growth of 276% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Development - The company is focusing on a dual-driven development model of "automotive parts + solid-state batteries," which is expected to enter a harvest period as the solid-state battery industrialization process accelerates in 2025 [1] - Delong has established a research and development center in Japan since 2018 to conduct forward-looking research on solid-state batteries [1] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Advancements - The solid-state battery developed by Delong features an oxide electrolyte, offering high safety, simple process flow, and ease of mass production, with strong competitiveness in performance and cost [1] - At the Tokyo International Battery and Energy Storage Exhibition in February, the company showcased its new generation solid-state battery with an energy density of 260 Wh/kg, aiming to exceed 400 Wh/kg in the next generation [2] - The company plans to increase investment in the Shanghai sample trial line to enhance equipment and processes, improving trial efficiency and sample quality for pilot and mass production [2]