Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the platinum market, highlighting its supply and demand dynamics, key applications, and future outlooks for both platinum and lithium markets [2][3][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Platinum Price Trends**: Platinum has seen significant price increases, becoming the metal with the highest price growth among precious metals in 2025, with a notable supply-demand gap of 21.6 tons expected [2][11]. - **Supply Concentration**: Global platinum supply is heavily concentrated in South Africa (70%), Zimbabwe (8%), and Russia (11-12%), with China contributing only 1.5% [3][5]. - **Demand Decline**: A projected decline in automotive demand for platinum is anticipated at a rate of approximately 1.9% annually due to the rise of electric vehicles and stricter emission standards [3][20][21]. - **Strategic Importance in Hydrogen Energy**: Platinum plays a crucial role in hydrogen energy applications, particularly in proton exchange membrane electrolyzers and fuel cells, indicating its strategic significance in future energy transitions [3][4][22]. - **Recycling Trends**: The recycling of platinum is expected to increase, with projections of 55.4 tons by 2026, accounting for 25% of the overall supply [7][12]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Role**: China is a major consumer of platinum, expected to account for 22% of global demand by 2026, while also facing supply constraints [7][24]. - **Impact of Tax Policy Changes**: The removal of the import VAT exemption for platinum in China is expected to align domestic prices with international markets, potentially increasing trading volumes [26][27]. - **Long-term Supply Challenges**: The platinum market is projected to face a continuous supply shortage until at least 2029, with an average annual gap of about 19 tons anticipated [12][19]. - **Investment Demand Dynamics**: Investment demand for platinum is influenced by various factors, including ETF flows and trading volumes, which can fluctuate significantly based on market conditions [29]. Conclusion - The platinum market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, changing demand dynamics, and strategic applications in emerging technologies. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for both short-term volatility and long-term supply challenges.

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

编辑丨孙超逸 在上金所、上期所元旦休市期间，全国最大的黄金珠宝现货交易市场——深圳水贝的交易并未停歇。 1月4日， 21世纪经济报道记者走访深圳水贝市场时注意到，部分商家将银条叠放在金条之上售卖。 记者丨黄子潇 按照常规的销售思路，商家往往会把最畅销或者价值最高的商品置于显眼之处。 不过，水贝商家向记者给出了更直白的原因：新进货的银条没地方摆了。因此，更为昂贵的金条只 能"屈居其下"。 疯狂的白银：拿料变困难，加工费水涨船高 在刚过去的2025年，银价以约140%的涨幅超越金价约60%的涨幅，成为年内表现最强的贵金属品种。 即便在全市场大类资产配置中，白银的表现也堪称一枝独秀。 白银的行情，甚至导致交易从场内转到场外。 12月下旬，内地市场唯一主投白银的国投瑞银LOF宣布限购且频繁停牌。 为此，投资者涌向了水贝这座全国最大的黄金珠宝批发市场，通过线下渠道抢购银条、银锭等实物白 银。部分人甚至被告知银条已被尽数预定，只得空手而归。 一时间，即便溢价出售的银条仍供不应求。在此期间，部分商家亦加入队伍，愿出高价向料商购入银 板、银条。 这也侧面反映出，这批银条大概率是商家的匆忙补货，柜台甚至还没来得及为其"腾出空间 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, which may delay exports of tin, nickel, and bauxite, leading to short-term price stimulation but limited long-term effects. The focus remains on precious metals as safe-haven assets, with a positive outlook on lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have seen a decline, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4324.5 and $70.5 per ounce, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -4.79% and -7.69%. The Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate cuts post-December is expected to influence market sentiment positively [2] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to show price elasticity due to supply constraints, with LME copper closing at $12496.5 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week. The report also mentions a strike at Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper mine, which could impact supply [2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased, with COMEX gold at $4324.5/oz and silver at $70.5/oz. The market sentiment is influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and increased central bank and ETF purchases [2] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, and others in the gold sector [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints, with LME copper at $12496.5/ton and a notable strike affecting production. The report indicates a potential increase in exports post-holiday [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices remain strong, with LME aluminum at $2997.0/ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but a decrease in downstream demand due to high prices [3] - Suggested companies include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [3] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at 327680 yuan/ton. The report anticipates continued high prices due to supply concerns from major producing regions [9] - Companies to watch include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings [9] Strategic Metals - The report highlights a positive outlook for lithium, with prices at 121580 yuan/ton, driven by increasing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries [10] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 460000 yuan/ton [10] - Companies of interest include Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [10][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are expected to rise, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide at 607500 yuan/ton and 596500 yuan/ton, respectively. The report notes a potential recovery in export demand [12] - Recommended companies include Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [12]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver rising nearly 150% and gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 and indicating a systemic loss of confidence in the global monetary system centered around the US dollar [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) fell over 9% in 2025, with a 10.6% drop in the first half of the year, representing the worst performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The decline in the dollar's purchasing power is driven by a collapse in the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies, with three interest rate cuts since September 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% [3] - There are concerns about the politicization of monetary policy under the Trump administration, which could lead to a repeat of the 1970s "Great Inflation" scenario, where a lack of discipline in monetary policy resulted in a collapse of dollar credibility and a 2,300% increase in gold prices over a decade [3] Group 3: De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with emerging economies like China, India, Turkey, and Russia leading the charge, indicating a strategic shift away from the dollar [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict, have heightened awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on dollar assets, prompting a reassessment of the dollar's safety [4] Group 4: Gold and Silver as Strategic Assets - Gold's status as a non-sanctionable and non-freezable ultimate settlement asset has been elevated, while the internationalization of the renminbi is creating a parallel payment system, enhancing gold's role as a neutral medium of exchange [5] - Silver's price surge reflects both its financial attributes and a surge in industrial demand, particularly driven by its role in the electrification and green transition [7][8] Group 5: Structural Changes in Precious Metal Demand - The buying structure for precious metals has fundamentally shifted, with central bank purchases, private accumulation, and industrial demand providing stronger support compared to the past decade dominated by ETFs and futures [9] - The disconnect between "paper gold" and "physical gold" indicates a growing preference for tangible assets over financial derivatives, reflecting a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated financial assets [9] Group 6: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Current market conditions are often compared to the 1979-1980 gold bull market, but a more accurate reference may be the 1971-1974 period following the Nixon shock, where gold prices rose nearly 400% amid a vacuum in monetary order [10] - The ongoing rise in precious metals is not merely speculative but represents a collective vote of global capital against the dollar-centric monetary logic, signaling an irreversible loss of confidence in the existing unipolar currency system [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to exert selling pressure on gold and silver, potentially leading to significant sell-offs in these precious metals [1]. Group 1: Price Performance - In the previous year, silver and gold prices surged approximately 148% and 65% respectively, marking the largest annual increases since 1979 [1]. - The price increases of these precious metals outpaced the stock price growth of major tech companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - JPMorgan warns that the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks about $109 billion in assets, could suppress recent volatility in precious metals [1]. - The rebalancing period is set to occur from January 8 to January 14, during which approximately $3.8 billion in silver and $4.7 billion in gold may be sold off [1].

Group 1 - The report predicts that the A-share bull market will continue in 2026, driven by resilient overseas economies, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "dual easing" tone, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [4][7][8] - During the New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.76%, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology and materials sectors [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December, marking the first increase since April, driven by policy support and pre-holiday inventory buildup [8][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of service consumption policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a 2.95 billion yuan investment plan and 625 million yuan in special bonds to support consumption [9][10] - The real estate sector is expected to experience a significant divergence in policy expectations, with new housing sales projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11][12] - The public fund industry is expected to see a high-quality development trend, with new regulations aimed at reducing investor costs and promoting long-term holding of funds, potentially saving investors 51 billion yuan annually [12]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

利多出尽，关注价格高位 回落风险 贵金属月报 2025/01/04 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 沪金指数前期在三角收敛末端向上突破，但当前短期上涨趋势已被破坏，在价格下跌的同时持仓量显著回落， 国际金价短期来看仍具备一定的回调空间，关注下方943元/克一线支撑。 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属价格呈现加速上涨后的冲高回落态势，国际银价表现尤为突出，12月1日至30日，COMEX白银主力合约价格上涨 25.5%至76.02美元/盎司，在盘中触及82.67美元/盎司的历史新高。同期沪银主力合约价格上涨25.71%至17074元/千克，并在盘中触及19998 元/千克的历史新高。对比之下，国际金价的涨幅则相对有限，统计期内COMEX黄金主力合约价格上涨2.2%至4352.3美元/盎 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report points out that there is a risk of a swing in policy expectations both at home and abroad. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global instability will be the norm. The supply - side risks of commodities and loose monetary policies are decisive factors for rising commodity prices. It also mentions bifurcations in domestic and overseas economic outlooks and suggests investment strategies for different asset classes [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: There is a risk of a swing in policy expectations after domestic important meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment. Attention should be paid to specific domestic policies and Trump's Fed chair candidate. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year holiday may lead to supply - side risks for commodities and support price increases [1]. - **Meso**: There is a divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized consumption promotion and "anti - involution." Trade supported the December economic outlook, with consumption leading the industry recovery, and the persistence of new orders' resilience needs attention [2]. - **Micro**: Focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and also look for opportunities in low - valued commodity price hikes. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a preferred choice. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical events and future supply expectations. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3]. Strategy - **Commodities and Stock Index Futures**: Allocate more on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, different economic indicators showed various trends. Consumption contributed 66.8% to GDP, investment 26.1%, and fiscal 20.3%. Indicators such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, and consumption had their own fluctuations [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, and credit indicators all had different trends. For example, the inflation rate was around 2% - 2.5% [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, net exports contributed 30.3% to GDP, investment 25.2%, and consumption 44.5%. GDP growth, investment in different sectors, consumption, inflation, and financial indicators showed their own characteristics. For instance, the real estate investment growth rate was negative [9].