制作日期：2025 年 8 月 7 日 【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 盘面偏强震荡 今日盘面高开高走，偏强震荡。特朗普拟对芯片产品征 100%关税，苹果等在美建厂 企业可豁免。基本面来看，智利铜矿事件扰动铜市场的供应预期，且伦铜库存大幅累 库，供应双重扰动博弈，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修 计划，冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏损，目前淡季下需求疲软，终端需求萎缩， 抢出口的情况下，需求有前置，透支后期需求，市场交投情绪不温不火。铜半成品后续 被征收关税，可能将影响出口需求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面 价格。综合来看，下游铜材需求疲弱，铜价承压运行，但目前库存压力依然不大，显性 库存环比有去化，美联储降息预期依然在博弈，近日降息预期不断地增强，下方支撑行 情关注 78000 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面高开高走，偏强震荡。报收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The global visible copper inventory has increased, and downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. The short - term macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,280 yuan/ton, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, spot copper holders lowered the premium. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources had a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment indexes increased. Spot merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to take profits [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy, providing macro - level support for copper prices. Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which may clear geopolitical risks and boost copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: FireFly Metals acquired the Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada in 2023 for 65 million Australian dollars. After the acquisition, it increased drilling, expanding the resource by 20 million tons to 60 million tons with a copper equivalent of about 3% [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The copper market needs to digest the impact of US tariff policies. LME copper prices declined due to inventory increases. High tariffs reduce the expected increase in copper supply outside the US, providing support for prices. Supply disruptions in Chile, such as the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, also affect production. Chile's copper exports to China rebounded in July [4] - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. Resource nationalism poses risks to new supply, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity is needed by 2035 to meet demand [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 14,275 tons to 156,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,579 tons to 20,346 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 135,900 tons, a change of 16,600 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed a slight increase, opening at $9,665 per ton and currently trading at $9,689 per ton, with a peak of $9,700 per ton and a low of $9,665 per ton, reflecting a 0.16% increase [1] - On August 6, LME copper futures opened at $9,625 per ton, reached a high of $9,708 per ton, and closed at $9,681 per ton, marking a 0.50% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import loss of -141.8 yuan per ton, improving from a previous loss of -262.02 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - As of August 6, LME registered copper warrants totaled 145,200 tons, with canceled warrants at 10,925 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons; total copper inventory increased by 2,275 tons to 156,125 tons [2] - A survey of 74 domestic recycled copper rod production enterprises, covering a capacity of 8.19 million tons, indicated that the actual production of recycled copper rods in July 2025 was 216,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.74% [2] - The capacity utilization rate for domestic recycled copper rods in July 2025 was 26.73%, down 5.29% month-on-month and 3.44% year-on-year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: Zinc, lead, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal are expected to oscillate upwards; industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester chip have potential for positive movement; palm oil is recommended for long - position building at low levels [2][9][12][37][50] - **Negative Trends**: Para - xylene, LLDPE, LPG, propylene are trending weakly; the container shipping index (European line) has a weak fundamental outlook [2][5] - **Oscillating Trends**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, iron ore, log, synthetic rubber, asphalt, methanol, urea, etc. are in an oscillating phase [2][6][15][17] - **Other Situations**: PTA has a rebound in monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the recovery of coal prices; caustic soda's peak - season contracts are treated with a long - position bias [2] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. For example, the tariffs imposed by Trump on copper products and other commodities have an impact on the copper market; the changes in Chile's lithium carbonate exports affect the lithium carbonate market [6][25] - Different commodities have different trading strategies based on their trends. For instance, for PX, a reverse spread for contracts 9 - 1 is recommended to be held; for PTA, a positive spread for contracts at low levels is advised; for MEG, a long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is proposed [54][55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, but Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation affect the market. The trend intensity is neutral [6][8] - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate upwards. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and there are news about US - Japan trade agreements [9][10] - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price, and macro - economic news about the US affects the market. The trend intensity is neutral [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation. Alumina is in short - term oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all neutral [15][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to intensified long - short competition. Stainless steel's supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are neutral [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is neutral [23][26] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level, the load drops unexpectedly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **MEG**: The rebound is driven by the recovery of coal prices. A long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is recommended. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in short - term oscillation. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has changed, and the market is affected by factors such as speculation funds and policies [56][57] - **Asphalt**: It is in consolidation after a decline [2][60] Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in contract 10 and add short positions at high levels if appropriate [5] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Polyester Chip**: The downside space is limited, and they are in short - term oscillation. A long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]

证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-062 云南铜业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、会议召开情况 （一）召开时间 现场会议召开时间为：2025 年 8 月 6 日下午 14:30 分 网络投票时间为：2025 年 8 月 6 日。通过深圳证券交易 所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为：2025 年 8 月 6 日上 午 9:15－9:25，9:30－11:30，下午 13:00－15:00；通过深圳 证券交易所互联网投票系统投票的具体时间为：2025 年 8 月 （二）现场会议召开地点：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 （三）召开方式：本次股东会采取现场投票与网络投票 相结合的方式。 （四）召集人：云南铜业股份有限公司第十届董事会 （五）主持人：副董事长孙成余先生 （六）会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》《深圳证券交 易所股票上市规则》及《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、会议出席情况 （一）股东出席的总体情况 出席现场的股东及股东代表 3 人， 代表股份 637,479,818 股，占公司有表决权股份总数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - aspect, copper prices declined from a high level this week, with COMEX copper plummeting 24% in a single week, fully closing the nearly $3000 price gap with LME copper in the past six months. Overseas non - farm data was worse than expected, and previous data was significantly revised down, increasing market expectations of US economic pressure. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Powell's slightly hawkish stance responded to Trump's administration's pressure for rate cuts. Tariffs are gradually affecting demand. In China, the "anti - involution" movement - driven price increase has ended, but policy continuity will continue, and more implemented policies need attention. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, COMEX copper's pricing of a 50% tariff in its price is unsustainable. The US domestic and export copper trade attractiveness has decreased, affecting COMEX copper positions. After the 50% tariff on downstream primary copper products and exemption for refined copper, the $3000 price gap between US and international copper prices has rapidly converged. The flow of the US's 20 - year high copper inventory and the resulting demand shock will put pressure on international copper prices, and weak demand will be reflected in LME inventory accumulation [5][89]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US and Europe declined. The euro - zone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, with Germany at 49.2% and France at 48.4%. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders both declined, and demand sub - indicators dropped faster [14]. - **Price Performance**: During the "anti - involution" movement in July, domestic commodities generally rose, but copper prices were subdued. If the 50% copper tariff is implemented, price pressure will increase. Domestic macro - policies are driving, but overseas expectations are still insufficient, with rate - cut expectations priced in for September. The Fed's independence has been repeatedly challenged, and the market is still tracking US economic data, with the latest manufacturing PMI significantly dropping below the boom - bust line [15]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply** - **Global Production**: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, up 4.96% year - on - year, and 22.835 million tons for the whole year, up 2.54%. In 2025 May, it was 2.006 million tons, up 6.14% year - on - year, and 9.524 million tons from January to May, up 3.27%. In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons [23]. - **China's Imports**: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate, up 12.3% month - on - month and 1.7% year - on - year, and 28.114 million tons for the whole year, up 2.1%. In June 2025, imports continued to decline. In May, imports were about 2.3497 million tons, up only 1.77% year - on - year, and 14.7543 million tons from January to May, up 6.4% [27]. - **TC**: On August 1, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - $42.09 per dry ton, up $0.54 from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 physical tons, down 39,300 physical tons from the previous period. The 2025 long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, up 3.47% and 14.21% year - on - year. From January to July, cumulative production increased by 820,800 tons, up 11.82%. In August, due to supply shortages, production is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons month - on - month, down 0.51%, but increase by 154,800 tons year - on - year, up 15.27% [37]. - **Refined Copper Imports and Exports**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, up 6.49% year - on - year, and exported 457,500 tons, up 63.86%. In 2025 from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons, down 8.6%, and exports were 307,900 tons, up 1.97% [43]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap, up 25% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year, and 2.25 million tons for the whole year, up 13.26%. In June 2025, imports were 183,200 physical tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.06% year - on - year. From January to June, imports were 1.1454 million tons, down 0.5% [48]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rods was 29.96%, up 0.67 percentage points from last week and 11.52 percentage points year - on - year. The average price spread between scrap and refined copper rods was $654 per ton this week, narrowing by $321. Due to weak terminal consumption, the inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises increased by 700 tons to 5,950 tons [51]. - **Consumption - end** - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, up 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, up 15.26%. In 2025 from January to June, power investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data on wire and cable consumption was provided, only related charts. - **Air - conditioners**: In 2024 from January to December, air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, up 9.7%. In 2025 from January to June, production was 163.2961 million units, up 5.5%, with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in year - on - year growth as the industry entered the off - season [57]. - **Automobiles**: In 2025 from January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units, up 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, up 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, accounting for 44.3% of total vehicle sales [62]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024 from January to December, real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, down 27.7%, and new construction area was down 23%. In June 2025, the completion area was 226 million square meters, down 14.3%, and new construction area was down 20%, with the "guaranteeing housing delivery" policy showing initial results [65]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 474,000 tons, an increase of 82,900 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 48,500 tons to 141,800 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 72,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 46,500 tons to 259,700 tons. As of July 31, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 81,100 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [71]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of July 29, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 37,347 contracts, an increase of 3,657 contracts. Non - commercial long positions were 74,650 contracts, with only a 25 - contract increase, and non - commercial short positions were 37,303 contracts, a decrease of 3,632 contracts [73]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 1, LME copper was at a spot discount of - $49.25 per ton, returning to a large - discount pattern. The domestic spot maintained a premium, but the term structure flattened, indicating weak demand. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern, with transactions mainly for rigid demand [83]. - **Basis**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper average price and the continuous third - month contract was 310 yuan per ton [85]. Strategy - Domestic copper positions remain low, and after the sharp decline of COMEX copper, most positions have left. The multi - empty game at the current price level is not intense. More attention should be paid to LME copper variables. After taking profit on the near - month short call options, it is recommended to increase far - month put option positions at low prices. In the important time window of August - September, copper prices will face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory and capital flow changes [6][90].

（编辑 楚丽君） 证券日报网讯 8月6日晚间，云南铜业发布公告称，公司2025年第三次临时股东会于2025年8月6日召 开，审议通过了《关于本次发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易符合相关法律、法规规定的议 案》等多项议案。 ...

Group 1 - Institutions ranked 28 stocks today, with net purchases of 14 stocks and net sales of 14 stocks [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional purchases were Tongling Nonferrous Metals (CNY 101 million), Jiayuan Technology (CNY 9.375 million), and Chengyi Pharmaceutical (CNY 88.38 million) [1][3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a price increase of 10.11% [2] Group 2 - A recent collapse at Chile's El Teniente mine, operated by Codelco, resulted in 6 fatalities and has halted production, affecting over 25% of Codelco's total output [3] - Codelco produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with an annual production capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons [3] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation announced plans to absorb China Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. through an A-share stock issuance [3] Group 3 - At the Ascend Computing Industry Development Summit on August 5, CANN announced it will fully open-source its platform [4] - Financial securities believe that building an ecosystem is an inevitable trend, and China needs to accelerate the improvement of underlying architectures like CANN to enhance compatibility with CUDA [4] - Dongfang Guoxin's AI deep learning application products have achieved compatibility certification with Huawei's Ascend and Harmony, further enhancing performance to meet customer needs [4]

(责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com | 头入金额最大的前5名 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 交易营业部名称 | | 买人金额(万) | 占总成交比例 | 卖出金额(万) | 占总成交比例 | 净额(万)2 | | 1 | 深股通专用 | 539次 45.27% 0 | 15780.34 | 4.89% | 14534.12 | 4.50% | 1246.21 | | 2 | 广发证券股份有限公司深圳深南东路证券营业部 | 360 41.67% 4 | 10930.49 | 3.39% | 61.57 | 0.02% | 10868.92 | | 3 | 国泰安通证券股份有限公司成都北一环路证券营业部 | 159 48.43% | 8130.23 | ...

Group 1 - The stock of Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630.SZ) reached the daily limit, with a turnover rate of 7.75% and a transaction volume of 3.228 billion yuan [1] - The top buying institutions included GF Securities' Shenzhen branch, which net bought 109.3 million yuan, and four institutional investors who collectively net bought 101 million yuan [1] - The "Chengdu system" retail investors ranked third in net buying, with a net purchase of 79.67 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top five buying entities accounted for a total of 542.35 million yuan, representing 16.80% of the total transaction volume [2] - The largest buying entity was the Shenzhen Stock Connect, with a purchase amount of 157.8 million yuan, constituting 4.89% of the total transaction [2] - The second largest buyer was GF Securities' Shenzhen branch, with a purchase amount of 109.3 million yuan, making up 3.39% of the total transaction [2]