Core Viewpoint - Despite increased volatility in the international trade environment, China's industrial enterprises above a designated size reported a profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a continued recovery trend [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with April alone showing a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.4% [2]. - The revenue profit margin for these enterprises rose by 0.17 percentage points to 4.87%, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - A series of stable growth policies have been implemented to support industrial enterprises, particularly in response to external pressures [1][2]. - The State Council's meeting on April 18 emphasized measures to stabilize employment and foreign trade, as well as to promote consumption and domestic demand [1]. - Policies such as increased export tax rebates and financial support for foreign trade enterprises have created a favorable environment for trade development [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the way [3]. - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 11.2%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises remains low, indicating a need for continued monitoring of profit trends [4]. - Expectations suggest that adjustments in tariffs between China and the U.S. may lead to reduced export costs and improved external demand, further supporting profit growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China showed a stable recovery in the first four months of 2023, with a total profit of 21,170.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% and an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first four months, 23 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth coverage of nearly 60% [1]. - In April, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 3% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to March [1]. Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing sector demonstrated significant performance, with profits growing by 11.2% year-on-year in the first four months, accelerating by 4.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - This sector contributed 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises, with seven out of eight sub-sectors achieving double-digit profit growth [2]. - Specific industries within equipment manufacturing, such as instruments, electrical machinery, and general equipment, saw profit increases of 22%, 15.4%, and 11.7% respectively, with notable accelerations in growth rates compared to the first quarter [2]. Group 3: High-Tech Manufacturing Sector - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9% year-on-year in the first four months, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [2]. - Notable growth was observed in sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and aircraft manufacturing, with profits rising by 24.3% and 27% respectively [3]. - The semiconductor and electronic circuit manufacturing sectors experienced extraordinary profit growth, with increases of 105.1%, 43.1%, and 42.2% [3]. Group 4: Policy Impact and Emerging Industries - The "Two New" policy effects are becoming increasingly evident, with significant profit growth in specialized and general equipment manufacturing, driven by large-scale equipment updates [3]. - The household appliance sector also benefited from consumption upgrade policies, with profits in related industries growing by 17.2%, 17.1%, and 15.1% [3]. - Overall, the resilience and anti-shock capability of China's industrial sector are highlighted, with a call for continued technological and industrial innovation to support ongoing recovery [4].

Core Insights - The profit of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 21,170.2 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, the highest cumulative growth rate in nearly eight months [1][16][21] - In April alone, the profit of these enterprises grew by 3.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery trend [1][16] - The total operating revenue for these enterprises in the first four months was 43.44 trillion yuan, setting a historical record for the same period [1][4] Economic Environment - The V-shaped rebound in profit growth suggests a fundamental change in the operating environment for industrial enterprises, driven by a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving external conditions [1][18] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's new round of interest rate cuts since September has also contributed to increased demand from European and American consumers, positively impacting China's exports [1][18] Industry Performance - Among 41 major industrial categories, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with a growth rate of nearly 60% [17] - The agricultural and food processing industry saw a profit increase of 45.6%, while the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry grew by 24.5% [17] - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, demonstrated robust profit growth, with 7 out of 8 sub-sectors achieving double-digit growth [18][20] Company Performance - State-owned enterprises reported negative growth in both revenue and profit, while foreign-invested and private enterprises showed positive performance, with private enterprises' profit increasing by 14.1% [19] - The operating profit margin for enterprises increased to 4.87%, reflecting seasonal fluctuations and a higher growth rate compared to the previous year [19] Future Outlook - The combination of improved external demand and domestic policy support is expected to sustain the growth of industrial profits, with ongoing initiatives likely to enhance internal demand [20][21] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is anticipated to lead to a new cycle of prosperity, with expectations for continued profit growth in the future [21]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates a year-on-year profit growth of 3.0% for industrial enterprises above designated size in April, showing a continuous improvement in profit growth for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4]. - In April alone, profits increased by 3.0%, which is a 0.4 percentage point acceleration from March [4]. - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 23 experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw significant profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 11.2% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% in the first four months [4]. - The growth rates for these sectors exceeded the overall average profit growth rate of 7.6% for all industrial enterprises [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [4]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Several industries related to "Artificial Intelligence+" and smart products experienced profit growth of over 100%, including semiconductor device manufacturing (105.1%), smart vehicle equipment manufacturing (177.4%), and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing (167.9%) [5]. - The "Two New" policy effects are evident, with specialized and general equipment industries achieving double-digit profit growth, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [5]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the international environment and pressures from insufficient demand and price declines, the resilience of the Chinese economy is strong, supported by policy initiatives and industrial upgrades [6]. - The trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is expected to continue, with high-tech and high-value-added industries projected to maintain rapid growth [6]. Group 5: Economic Recovery Indicators - Multiple market institutions have reported a month-on-month recovery in economic sentiment for May [3][7]. - The retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in May are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4% [8]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a decrease in the rate of decline in sales, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [9].

宏观动态报告 F券 CG 利润小幅改善,库存继续去化 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润分析 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 研究助理:铁传奥 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2025 年 5 月 27 日 5 月 27 日国家统计局发布：1—4 月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 ● 21170.2 亿元,同比增长 1.4%(前值 0.8%）; 实现营业收入 43.44 万亿元, 同比增长 3.2%（前值 3.4%）。3 月利润当月同比 3.0%（前值 2.6%）。工业 企业利润连续两个月正增走扩。 利润率改善对利润增速加快有较大贡献。从量、价、利润率三要素模型来看, o 贡献最多的还是量,工业增加值 1-4 月实现同比 6.4%的强劲增长,单月同比 上涨 6.1%,虽然 4 月工业增加值环比较 3 月有所下滑,但仍在"三抢"的带 动下有较高增速。4月转口贸易"抢出口"和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial profits of large-scale enterprises in China showed a year-on-year growth of 3.0% in April, indicating a continuous improvement in profit growth for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first four months of the year, the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4]. - In April alone, the profit growth was 3.0%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points from March [4]. - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 sectors experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw significant profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 11.2% and high-tech manufacturing profits rising by 9.0% in the first four months [4]. - The profit growth in high-tech manufacturing was 7.6 percentage points higher than the average for all large-scale industrial enterprises [4]. - Specific industries related to "artificial intelligence+" and smart products saw profits more than double, such as semiconductor device manufacturing (105.1% growth), smart vehicle equipment manufacturing (177.4% growth), and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing (167.9% growth) [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the international trade environment and pressures from global economic downturns, China's economic resilience is strong, supported by policy initiatives and industrial upgrades [7]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to continue its transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with high-tech and high-value-added industries projected to maintain rapid growth [7].

Economic Overview - Jinan's economy shows a stable and improving trend in the first four months of the year, supported by precise policies and macroeconomic coordination [1] Industrial Production - The city's industrial output increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing sector at 103.0%, and automotive manufacturing at 39.5% [1] - Equipment manufacturing grew by 27.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 18.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a 26.1% increase in output, contributing 4.9 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.4% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a substantial increase of 210.6% and the secondary industry growing by 14.7% [2] - Industrial investment grew by 13.8%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2] - High-tech industry investment increased by 13.8%, while real estate development investment declined by 2.0% [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's revenue reached 1111.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, with nine out of ten major industries reporting revenue growth [3] - The transportation, storage, and postal services sector generated 469.5 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of the service sector's total revenue, and grew by 6.4% [3] - The rental and business services sector also performed well, with a revenue increase of 14.2% [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in Jinan reached 654.2 billion yuan, a 3.0% increase year-on-year, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% [4] - The sales of communication equipment surged by 71.2% due to the "trade-in" policy, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.9% [4] - Online retail sales grew significantly by 32.7%, reaching 172.4 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Overview - Public budget revenue was 452.5 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase, while tax revenue decreased by 1.3% [4] - Financial institutions reported a 4.9% increase in deposits and a 10.6% increase in loans by the end of April [4] Foreign Trade - Jinan's total import and export value reached 793.4 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase, with exports growing by 10.4% and imports by 49.6% [5] - General trade accounted for 92.3% of the total trade volume, growing by 23.3% [5] Price Trends - Consumer prices rose by 0.5% cumulatively, with a 0.6% increase in April, showing a mixed trend across eight categories of goods and services [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Qingdao is stable, continuing a positive development trend in 2023 [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first four months, with 22 out of 35 major industries showing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 62.9% [1] - Key industries such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing saw significant increases in added value, contributing a total of 5.8 percentage points to the industrial growth rate [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value grew by 14.2%, boosting the overall industrial growth rate by 7.3 percentage points, which is higher than the overall industrial added value growth rate of 5.5% [1] Service Sector - The revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew by 7.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, with leasing and business services increasing by 18.8% and scientific research and technical services by 3.8% [2] - Passenger transport volumes for rail, road, and air increased by 2.8%, 9.1%, and 2.5% respectively, while postal business volume grew by 10.4% [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.0% year-on-year in the first four months, with the secondary industry seeing a significant growth of 27.8% [3] - Private investment rose by 8.3%, accounting for 63.7% of total investment, contributing 5.0 percentage points to the overall fixed asset investment growth [3] Online Consumption - Retail sales through public networks increased by 8.5% year-on-year, making up 37.7% of total retail sales [4] - The sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment surged by 48.7% and 23.8% respectively, driven by the policy encouraging the replacement of consumer goods [4] Trade and Exports - The total value of foreign trade imports and exports reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, accounting for 25.8% of the province's total [5] - Exports grew by 8% to 175.64 billion yuan, while imports decreased by 2.2% to 115.46 billion yuan [5] - Private enterprises contributed significantly to trade, with a total of 204.84 billion yuan in imports and exports, marking a 6.4% increase [5] Financial and Employment Situation - The general public budget revenue was 49.49 billion yuan, while expenditure was 50.17 billion yuan, with education and cultural tourism spending increasing by 7.2% and 19.2% respectively [6] - Urban employment increased by 114,700, a growth of 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable rise in employment among migrant workers [7] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, with various categories experiencing different price changes [7]

Economic Performance - In the first four months, Dalian's industrial production accelerated, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 11.9% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from January to March [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 21.1%, maintaining double-digit growth for 24 consecutive months [1] - The added value of state-owned enterprises increased by 18.9%, while private enterprises grew by 7.4% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Dalian rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.3% and infrastructure investment surging by 29.2% [2] - High-tech industry investment saw a significant rise of 23.4%, with high-tech manufacturing investment skyrocketing by 225.7% [3] - The number of industrial technology transformation projects reached 220, up 12.2% year-on-year, with completed investment increasing by 107.5% [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Dalian reached 31.14 billion yuan, marking an 18.5% year-on-year increase [3] - Significant growth was observed in categories such as building materials (2670.9%), furniture (779.1%), and home appliances (495.5%) [3] - Online retail sales through public networks surged by 215.0% year-on-year [3] Service Sector Performance - The total turnover of road, waterway, and air transport increased by 1.8%, -3.9%, and 6.4% respectively [2] - The postal business volume grew by 20.5%, while telecommunications business volume rose by 11.6% [2] - Revenue from various service sectors, including culture, sports, and entertainment, saw significant increases, with a 15.0% rise [2] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Dalian decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with consumer goods prices down by 0.9% [4] - The price of food and tobacco fell by 1.8%, while clothing prices increased by 0.7% [4] - The total electricity consumption reached 16.67 billion kWh, up 2.1% year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, implementing industrial development support policies, and promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the industrial sector [1][7]. Industrial Profit Growth - From January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. - In April, profits grew by 3.0% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from March [1]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 11.2% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% during the same period [4]. Sector Performance - Among 41 major industrial categories, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed significantly, driving a 3.6 percentage point increase in total industrial profits [4]. - High-end manufacturing sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and aircraft manufacturing saw profits increase by 24.3% and 27.0%, respectively [4]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have shown continued effectiveness, with specialized and general equipment sectors experiencing profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7%, respectively [5][6]. - The consumer goods sector benefited from policies promoting the replacement of old products, with profits in related industries growing by 17.2% to 15.1% [6]. Future Outlook - The industrial sector is expected to maintain high growth, supported by macroeconomic policies and the ongoing transformation and upgrading of industries [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing the industrial ecosystem and avoiding homogeneous competition, while promoting innovation and collaboration among enterprises [8]. - Local governments are actively implementing measures to stabilize industrial performance and support small and medium-sized enterprises [9].