文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 特朗普关税后的股汇表现有无规律？ 特朗普公布超预期关税之后，以股市和汇率为典型代表的风险资产明显回调。 选择美国前50个贸易伙伴 （不含墨、加）加上墨西哥和加拿大，观察其汇率和股指表现与几组经济指标的关系 。 1、去掉缺失值和部分盯住美元的汇率，汇率的有效样本为38个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有13个，下跌的有 25个。发达经济体的汇率（-0.8%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-0.3%）。 2、去掉缺失值，股指的有效样本为34个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有3个，下跌的有31个。发达经济体股指 （-5.2%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-3.9%）。 3、美国贸易伙伴的股汇表现，与其在美国进口中的份额占比、经济体量、人均GDP水平、出口依赖度之 间，没有明显的相关性 。 4、各经济体的汇率表现，似乎与美国对其加征的对等关税税率呈现一定的正相关性，对等关税税率越高， 汇率的表现反而相对较好。 股指表现与对等关税税率没有明显相关性。进一步观察，各经济体汇率表现， 与对等关税 ...

本报记者 孟珂 3月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，3月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.5%、50.8%和51.4%，比2月份上升0.3个百分点、0.4 个百分点和0.3个百分点。 文韬认为，大型企业供需继续保持较快增长。随着一揽子存量政策和增量政策以及各项助力中小企业政策持续发力，加上 众多项目开工，中小企业回稳运行。 值得关注的是，三大重点行业PMI稳中有升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为52.0%、52.3%和 50.0%，比2月份上升1.2个百分点、1.4个百分点和0.1个百分点，景气水平连续两个月回升；高耗能行业PMI为49.3%，比2月份 下降0.5个百分点。 展望二季度，文韬预计，叠加前期实施的一揽子存量政策和增量政策继续落地显效，二季度宏观经济预计继续取得"量的 稳定增长"和"质的较快提升"。企业对后市预期也较为乐观，3月份制造业生产经营活动预期指数为53.8%，连续6个月运行在 54%左右的较好水平。 数据显示，3月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.8%，比上月上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between PMI and EPMI is primarily due to the differentiation in the economic conditions of emerging and traditional industries, with the former showing stronger performance in March [1][8]. Manufacturing Sector - In March, the manufacturing PMI increased moderately by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, which is below market expectations [1][8]. - The EPMI for strategic emerging industries rose significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 59.6%, indicating a strong recovery in these sectors [1][8]. - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw substantial PMI increases of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points, reaching 52.3% and 52% respectively, while traditional sectors like consumer goods manufacturing only saw a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points to 50% [2][13]. - The production index for EPMI surged by 21.6 percentage points, contrasting with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in the manufacturing PMI production index, which reached 52.6% [2][17]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.8%, with the construction sector's PMI increasing by 0.7 percentage points to 53.4%, although this was weaker than seasonal expectations [3][5]. - The service sector's PMI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%, but this was also below the same period in previous years [3][5]. - The construction sector remains constrained by weak real estate investment, while the service sector is limited by the performance of life services [3][22]. Future Outlook - There are increasing risks to exports, but potential improvements in the economy may arise from accelerated import substitution and recovery in the service sector and real estate sales [3][31]. - The manufacturing sector may receive support from accelerated import substitution in industries like electrical and mechanical equipment, while the construction and service sectors show signs of recovery [3][31]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI continues to show a mild recovery, with production and new order indices slightly increasing [4][37]. - The non-manufacturing PMI reflects a general improvement, with both construction and service sectors showing slight increases [5][46].

Group 1 - The core idea is that Xi'an is actively developing its "first store economy," significantly diversifying and internationalizing its consumer market, with a projected addition of 436 new brand first stores in 2024, representing a 24.5% increase from 2023 [1][3] - Among the new first stores, 367 are domestic brands (84.1%) and 69 are international brands (15.8%), indicating a strong focus on local brand development [1] - In terms of store levels, Xi'an will see 13 national first stores, 168 Northwest first stores, 10 Shaanxi first stores, and 245 Xi'an first stores in 2024, with the Northwest first stores accounting for 38% of the total new first stores, showing a significant increase of 76.8% from 95 stores in 2023 [1] Group 2 - The Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Commerce aims to leverage the city's resource advantages and cultural heritage to stimulate large-scale consumption, expand service consumption, and develop new consumption models, including the first store economy, silver economy, night economy, and holiday economy [2] - The focus will also be on promoting digital, green, health, and service consumption, indicating a comprehensive approach to enhancing the consumer landscape in Xi'an [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recovery in U.S. business activity in March, while highlighting concerns over import tariffs and significant government spending cuts that may impact market sentiment and economic outlook for the remainder of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global survey indicates that the new orders index rose from 51.9 in February to 53.3 in March, while the employment index increased slightly from 49.4 in January to 50.6 [3]. - The composite PMI output index for the U.S. rose from 51.6 in February to 53.5 in March, indicating expansion in the private sector [4]. - The annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy in March was reported at 1.9%, with a quarterly annualized growth rate of only 1.5%, suggesting a slowdown compared to the end of 2024 [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Pricing - The input prices index surged from 58.4 in February to 60.9 in March, marking the highest level since April 2023, driven by tariffs and rising labor costs [5]. - The prices charged index for goods and services increased from 52.3 to 53.6, indicating that manufacturers are passing higher costs onto consumers, although service sector firms face challenges in raising prices due to slowing demand [6]. - The core PCE inflation rate is projected to rise by 2.8% this year, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [5].

Group 1 - Germany's President Steinmeier signed a constitutional amendment to relax the "debt brake" restrictions, allowing the federal government to establish a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure projects without being constrained by debt limits [1] - The reform is viewed as a fiscal cornerstone for the new German government, with expectations that large-scale fiscal spending will stimulate economic growth and create more jobs, enhancing Germany's economic competitiveness [1] - Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities predict that this move will boost Germany's economic growth, positively impacting other European countries as well [1] Group 2 - Germany's economy has faced challenges, with GDP contracting by 0.2% in Q4 2024 and a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive year of negative growth [2] - Key sectors such as manufacturing saw a 3% decline in output, particularly in machinery and automotive industries, while service sectors experienced a modest growth of 0.8% [2] - Domestic household consumption increased slightly by 0.3%, with notable growth in health and transportation sectors, rising by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Forecasts indicate a gradual recovery for the German economy starting this year, with the Munich Institute for Economic Research reporting an increase in the business climate index from 85.3 to 86.7 in March [3] - The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth in Germany's GDP for 2025, while the European Commission expects domestic demand to rebound, projecting GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 [3] - Germany's inflation rate has been declining, dropping from a peak of 11.6% in October 2022 to 2.4% in October 2024, contributing to positive economic outlooks [3] Group 4 - The German central bank's president, Nagel, expressed concerns about increased uncertainty for the German economy due to U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports, suggesting a potential for recession in 2025 [4]

25日，根据费城联储最新公布的数据，服务业部门当前活动指数从-13.1急剧下跌至-32.5，跌至2020年5月以来的最低水平。 通常，"软数据"主要是指基于调查、情绪和预期的经济指标，而"硬数据"是具有明确、客观的数值和统计基础的数据。分析认为，至 少在软数据方面，这些数据似乎表明，美国大选后的"蜜月期"已经结束，服务业增长前景黯淡。 未来预期指数四连跌，首次转为负值 费城联储报告显示，企业层面的未来活动扩散指数暴跌了34点至-19.8，这是该指数连续第四次下降，也是自2020年4月以来的首次负 值读数。 "软数据"继续恶化，美国费城联储服务业调查指数跌至疫情来最低 美国费城联储服务业调查数据降至疫情以来最低点，服务部门衰退警报拉响。 一般活动指数、新订单指数和销售/收入指数均保持在负值区间，其中前两项进一步下滑。不过，价格指数有所上升，表明整体价格 仍在上涨。 更令人担忧的是，未来活动预期指标的表现甚至更为糟糕。这与近期多项"软数据"恶化趋势一致，尽管"硬数据"仍相对稳健。 全职就业指数下降了10点至-7.5，这是自去年8月以来的首次负值。服务业就业前景正在恶化。 这种软数据与硬数据之间的分化值得投资者密切 ...

以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ，作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里，追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员 罗志恒 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，1- 2月 经济数据"开门红"，工业和服务业、消费和投资同比增速均高于去年全年 增速。一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右，为实现全年" 5%左右"的增速目标 奠定良好基础。 经济数据"开门红"的三大动能 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，生产供给稳定增长、消费投资稳中有 升，为一季度经济开局奠定良好基础。1-2月经济数据"开门红"，一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右。生产 方面，1-2月规模以上工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比分别增长5.9%和5.6%，较去年全年分别加快0.1 和0.4个百分点；需求方面，社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资完成额同比分别增长4%和4.1%，较去 年全年分别加快0.5和0.9个百分点。 值得注意的是，今年1-2月经济数据受到两大不利因素拖累，在这样的背景下，当前成绩更显不易。一 是工作日减少带来的不可比因素，受闰年和平年、元旦和春 ...

如何看待 1-2 月经济数据？ 事件：2025 年 1-2 月工业增加值同比 5.9%（前值 6.2%），社零同比 4.0%（前值 3.7%）；1-2 月固投同比 4.1%（前值 3.2%），地产投资同 比-9.8%（前值-10.6%），广义基建投资同比 10.0%（前值 9.2%），制 造业投资同比 9.0%（前值 9.2%）。 核心观点：1-2 月经济开局平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，最大亮点可谓 地产销售跌幅明显收窄、属于"小阳春"。往后看，经济走势的不确定 性较大，一是地产销售的持续性有待进一步观察；二是两会政策将逐 步落地，有望对经济基本面构成有利支撑；三是特朗普关税的扰动大， 对我国出口的冲击可能进一步显现。 宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 03 17 年 月 日 1、整体看，1-2 月经济基本平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，结构上延续 "供给偏强、需求偏弱"，其中：偏强的是，1-2 月工业生产、基建投 资、制造业投资增速维持高位，消费、地产投资环比改善，地产销售跌 幅明显收窄则可谓最大的亮点；偏弱的是，1-2 月 CPI、PPI 整体延续 低位，进口增速大幅走低， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting an "increase" rating based on expected returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the upcoming period [30]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy has shown a recovery trend since the 926 Politburo meeting, with January-February economic data indicating a strong start to the year, with GDP growth expected to reach around 5.5% year-on-year in Q1 [7][14]. - The recovery is supported by stable production and increasing consumption and investment, with industrial output and service sector growth rates improving compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policies in sustaining this recovery, emphasizing the need for continued policy support to enhance internal growth momentum and establish a virtuous cycle of economic improvement [19][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Data "Opening Red" Dynamics - The report identifies three main drivers for the positive economic data in early 2025: stable production growth, steady consumption, and investment increases [7]. - Industrial value-added and service production indices grew by 5.9% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, while retail sales and fixed asset investment increased by 4% and 4.1% [7][8]. Current Economic Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive data, the report warns of external challenges, including intensified global trade tensions and insufficient domestic demand, which could hinder sustained economic recovery [14][15]. - The real estate market remains a concern, with ongoing credit risks for real estate companies and a need for stabilization in housing prices [15][16]. Annual Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report forecasts that consumption and infrastructure investment will be the main drivers of economic growth in 2025, while exports may act as a drag on growth [18][19]. - It recommends that fiscal policies should focus on enhancing consumer purchasing power and improving the overall economic environment to stimulate demand [20][21].