Core Insights - The 2025 China Medical Insurance negotiation has concluded, with the new commercial insurance innovative drug directory set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, featuring 24 out of 121 submitted innovative drugs [3][4]. - The launch of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory marks a significant milestone for China's innovative drug sector, accelerating clinical applications and laying a solid policy foundation for future national plans [3][4]. - The new round of major national projects aims to establish China as a global center for new drug creation and a hub for the biopharmaceutical industry by 2035 [4]. Industry Trends - 2025 is anticipated to be a landmark year for China's innovative drugs, with 50 innovative drugs approved in the first three quarters alone, surpassing the total for 2024 [5]. - Major licensing deals have been signed, including a $1.97 billion agreement between Heng Rui Medicine and Merck, and a $12.5 billion deal with GlaxoSmithKline [5]. - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have seen a surge in innovative drug listings and stock price increases, setting new records [5]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" explicitly supports innovative drugs and medical devices, indicating a strong governmental push for the sector [5]. - The upcoming implementation of stricter regulations for traditional Chinese medicine is expected to drive high-quality development and improve the supply chain [13]. Market Dynamics - The medical device sector has not experienced the anticipated market performance despite new policies aimed at supporting high-end medical devices [11][14]. - The medical device market is under pressure due to factors such as inventory levels and centralized procurement policies, which have affected performance [11][14]. Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to remain at the forefront globally for the next 5-10 years, driven by strong R&D capabilities and competitive advantages [7][20]. - Emerging technologies, such as non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, are nearing commercialization, with significant developments expected in 2026 [18][19]. - High-value consumables are projected to see accelerated growth in 2026, benefiting from easing centralized procurement policies [16][17]. Investment Considerations - For innovative drug companies, key indicators to monitor include R&D progress, clinical data, and licensing agreements, which reflect global competitiveness [21][22]. - In the medical device sector, performance metrics such as sales revenue and procurement data will be crucial for assessing future growth potential [22].

Market Overview - The A-share market has regained upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new recent highs, indicating a strong performance with more stocks rising than falling [1] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for further upward movement [1] - The recent breakthrough of the 3900-point resistance since late October suggests that the market has the potential for further upward expansion [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with key focus areas in November including the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution [1] - The anticipated return of bullish sentiment is likely as the index breaks previous highs [1] Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point for November, with orderly rotation and high-low switching expected within the sector [2] - Underperforming segments such as robotics, military industry, and smart vehicles are anticipated to see a rebound, while leading sectors like computing hardware, domestic semiconductors, and new energy may present buying opportunities upon adjustment [2] - The anti-involution trend is showing results in sectors like photovoltaics, cement, coal, and express delivery, which are experiencing price increases and potential for further gains [2] Specific Sector Opportunities - Robotics is projected to expand from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, creating opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue [2] - The banking sector is witnessing a rebound in mid-year performance growth, attracting interest from long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the acceleration of innovation in the pharmaceutical and medical device industries in China, driven by supportive policies and a shift from generic to innovative drug development, which is expected to enhance the industry's quality and global competitiveness [2][3][5]. Policy Support for Innovation - Since 2020, numerous favorable policies have been introduced to improve the ecosystem for innovative drugs, focusing on research standards, review and approval systems, patent protection, and reimbursement mechanisms [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of supporting innovative drugs and medical devices, indicating their critical role in national health and economic development [3][5]. Clinical Trials and Market Dynamics - The number of clinical trials for innovative drugs in China has surpassed 1,900, outpacing the US, Europe, and Japan, reflecting a significant increase in research quality and efficiency [3][8]. - By 2024, 39 innovative drugs approved for the first time in China were domestically developed, increasing from 31% in 2020 to 42% in 2024, indicating a strong trend towards domestic innovation [3][5]. Medical Insurance and Payment Systems - The narrowing surplus of the national medical insurance fund has created a mismatch between the commercialization of innovative drugs and their approval timelines, necessitating improvements in the commercial insurance system [8][27]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to establish a multi-tiered medical insurance system, which is expected to enhance the role of commercial health insurance in providing payment support for innovative drugs [27][32]. Medical Devices and Technological Innovation - The approval of innovative medical devices has increased by 43% from 2016-2020 to 2021-2024, driven by improved regulatory mechanisms and support for high-end medical device innovation [10][13]. - The article notes that while domestic brands are gaining global competitiveness, the industry still faces challenges in achieving systematic original innovation and key technology breakthroughs [13][19]. Emerging Technologies - The application of AI and brain-machine interfaces in healthcare is progressing towards industrialization, with the establishment of preliminary frameworks for clinical applications and payment rules [14][18]. - The integration of high-quality data flow in healthcare is anticipated to enhance the clinical benefits of new technologies, improving resource utilization and patient outcomes [18][19]. Biomanufacturing Developments - The biomanufacturing sector in China is transitioning from a "follower" to a "runner" stage, with significant advancements in technology and policy support, laying a solid foundation for future growth [19][20]. - The article highlights the importance of focusing on high-value, environmentally friendly products, such as biodegradable materials, to expand market opportunities [22][26].

11月12日，在2025年野村中国投资年会现场，21世纪经济报道记者专访野村中国首席经济学家陆挺，陆挺表示，中国强大的制 造业是支撑过去五年出口高速增长的关键，尤其是AI、新能源汽车等领域，未来中国向中等发达国家目标迈进时，需要关注养 老社保体系的改革，这将使中国经济走向健康平衡的一面。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）全文公布。《建议》明 确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展指导方针，为做好未来五年经济社会发展工作指明了前进方向。 如何看待"十四五"时期我国积累的经济优势？如何看待"十五五"时期我国面临的机遇和挑战？如何持续高质量发展？如何大力 提振消费？如何优化投资结构？如何综合整治"内卷式"竞争？ （野村中国首席经济学家陆挺，李金萍摄） 新老经济并重高质量发展 《21世纪》：《建议》提出"人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平"，你如何看待这一目标？实现目标需要哪些核心条件？ 陆挺：要实现这一目标，中国需要完成的任务很多，具体来看，实现中等发达国家目标，中国需满足三大核心条件。 一是提升产业附加值，必须通过提高生产效率、强化科研研发与自主创新，推动经济 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in investment, with significant inflows from southbound funds and public funds, indicating strong market interest despite recent volatility [2][4][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a slight increase of 0.81% as of November 13, with a maximum drawdown of -8.17% and a maximum increase of 8.89% in the fourth quarter [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a decline of 7.49% with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15% [3] - Both indices have outperformed major global markets with annual gains exceeding 33% [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Southbound funds have recorded a net inflow of 1.31 trillion HKD year-to-date, marking a historical high and a 60% increase compared to last year's total inflow of 807.87 billion HKD [4] - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, reaching a market value of 1.36 trillion HKD by the end of Q3, a more than 40% increase from the previous quarter and a doubling from the same period last year [4][5] - Over half of the active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with some funds raising their positions by over 20% in a single quarter [4] Group 3: ETF Trends - The trend of investing in Hong Kong stocks through ETFs has intensified, with 79 Hong Kong Stock Connect-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of nearly 300 million HKD in the fourth quarter, totaling 2.184 billion HKD for the year [5] - The total size of these ETFs has surged to 352.87 billion HKD, a 3.4-fold increase from the end of last year [5] Group 4: Investment Preferences - Dividend-paying assets are gaining popularity, with significant net subscriptions to various dividend-focused ETFs [5] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with previous high-growth sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals experiencing a slowdown in inflows [5][9] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The alternating activity between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is attributed to industry cycle rotations rather than significant capital shifts between the two markets [6] - The Hong Kong market is seen as attractive due to its valuation advantages, structural benefits, and the ongoing appeal of Chinese assets [6][7] Group 6: Growth and Value Considerations - The Hong Kong market offers a dual appeal for defensive and growth-oriented investments, with blue-chip stocks providing stable dividends and innovative sectors presenting growth opportunities [7][8] - Concerns about potential bubbles in growth assets are countered by the argument that recent price increases are corrections of previous undervaluations rather than speculative bubbles [8]

阿里巴巴：有消息称，阿里巴巴正准备对旗舰AI应用进行重大改版；据悉，阿里巴巴已秘密启动"千 问"项目，基于Qwen最强模型打造一款同名个人AI助手——千问APP，全面对标ChatGPT，加入全球AI 应用的顶级竞赛。 腾讯控股：2025年第三季度收入1928.69亿元，同比增长15%，环比增长5%；毛利1087.98亿元，同比增 22%，环比增长4%；毛利率由去年同期的53%提升至56%；本公司权益持有人应占盈利631.33亿元，同 比增长19%，环比增长13%，预期558.8亿元；非国际财务报告准则本公司权益持有人应占盈利为705.51 亿元，同比增长18%，环比增长12%，预期659.7亿元。 11月13日，南下资金今日净卖出港股35.21亿港元。 其中：净买入阿里巴巴-W 13.75亿、小米集团-W 7.79亿；净卖出盈富基金62.27亿、恒生中国企业22.89 亿、腾讯控股8.75亿、信达生物4.19亿、赣锋锂业2.61亿。 据统计，南下资金已连续12日净买入小米，共计89.1582亿港元。 北水关注个股 信达生物：中国银河证券称，医药板块估值经历较长时间调整，近期已呈现显著结构性修复趋势，下半 年创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant influx of capital, with southbound funds and public funds increasing their investments, indicating a strong interest in the market despite recent volatility [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a "first decline then rise" pattern in Q4, with a cumulative increase of 0.81% as of November 13, and a maximum drawdown of -8.17% [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a decline of 7.49% during the same period, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15% [3]. - Both indices have outperformed major global markets this year, with annual increases exceeding 33% [3]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - Southbound funds have net purchased 1.31 trillion HKD this year, a historical high, representing a more than 60% increase compared to last year's total inflow of approximately 807.87 billion HKD [3][4]. - The cumulative net purchase of southbound funds has surpassed 5 trillion HKD [3]. - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, reaching an investment value of 1.36 trillion HKD by the end of Q3, a more than 40% increase from the previous quarter and a doubling from the same period last year [4]. Group 3: Fund Strategies - Over half of the active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with notable increases in positions for several funds [5]. - The trend of using ETFs to invest in Hong Kong stocks has surged, with 79 Hong Kong Stock Connect-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of nearly 300 million HKD in Q4 alone, and a total of 218.4 billion HKD for the year [5]. - The total scale of these ETFs has increased 3.4 times from 799.57 billion HKD at the end of last year to 3.5287 trillion HKD [5]. Group 4: Investment Preferences - Dividend-paying assets are increasingly favored, with specific ETFs attracting significant net subscriptions [6]. - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with reduced interest in previously popular sectors like technology and innovation drugs, indicating a rebalancing of investment styles [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The alternating activity between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is attributed to industry cycle rotations rather than significant capital shifts between the two markets [8]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as attractive due to its dual appeal for defensive and growth-oriented investments, with high dividend yields and innovative sectors [9]. - Concerns about potential bubbles in growth assets are tempered by the view that recent price increases are corrections of previously low valuations rather than speculative bubbles [10].

21世纪经济报道记者 李金萍 深圳报道 二是推进包容性增长，不能只看平均数据而忽视贫富差距，内需（尤其是消费内需）不稳定也难以支撑 持续增长，未来十年要在过往脱贫成就基础上，让更多人共享发展成果，才能实现可持续增长。 三是完善社会保障，未来十年需推进与经济发展水平匹配的社保改革，重点是稳定提高占比55%的城乡 居民养老收入，确保这部分群体的收入能随国家发展同步提升，避免"中等发达国家"目标与民生福祉脱 节。 《21世纪》：你提到，"十五五"期间政府不再设定具体五年增长目标，而是更强调高质量发展。如何理 解中国经济的高质量发展？哪些领域会成为关键支撑？ 陆挺：在我看来，高质量发展不是"只重新经济、忽视老经济"，而是要兼顾"问题化解、产业自强与包 容性增长"，具体有三个关键支撑点。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 全文公布。《建议》明确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展指导方针，为做好未来五年经济社会发展工 作指明了前进方向。 如何看待"十四五"时期我国积累的经济优势？如何看待"十五五"时期我国面临的机遇和挑战？如何持续 高质量发展？如何大力提振消费？ ...

11月13日晚，随着中芯国际（688981.SH，00981.HK）、诺诚健华（688428.SH，09969.HK）2家多地上 市的红筹公司完成三季报业绩披露，科创板592家公司的三季度"成绩单"正式揭晓。 前三季度，科创板公司实现营业收入1.105万亿元，同比增长7.9%；实现净利润492.68亿元，同比增长 8.9%；扣非后净利润319.74亿元，同比增长5.5%。其中，第三季度单季净利润同比大幅增长75%。 其中，超七成公司实现营收增长，近六成公司净利润增长。158家公司净利润增幅超过50%，46家公司 扭亏为盈。科创50指数成分公司营收和净利润占板块整体比重，分别保持在46%和50%的高位。科创 100指数成分公司营收和净利润同比分别增长12%和134%。 今年6月，科创板"1+6"改革启动，设立科创成长层，精准支持未盈利科技型企业发展。从三季度业绩表 现看，35家公司前三季度营收同比增长39%，净利润同比大幅减亏65%；在增收缩亏的同时，研发强度 中位数高达44.3%。 新能源行业"反内卷"持续推进。光伏领域，17家相关企业净亏损幅度收窄，环比缩亏28%。部分环节产 品均价有所回升，硅料龙头大全能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent National Medical Insurance negotiation introduced a dual-directory system for innovative drugs, which is expected to reshape the ecosystem for innovative pharmaceuticals in China, enhancing accessibility and affordability for high-value drugs [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of the Dual-Directory System - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory aims to include high-value innovative drugs that cannot be covered by the basic medical insurance, thus promoting a multi-tiered medical security system [3]. - This dual-directory system is expected to optimize payment capabilities for innovative products, balancing basic coverage and support for innovation, which could lead to a significant expansion of the domestic market for pharmaceuticals [3][4]. - The policy is anticipated to open market opportunities for high-priced or rare disease medications, addressing accessibility and affordability issues [4]. Group 2: Growth Catalysts for Innovative Drugs - The ongoing support from medical insurance policies is expected to continue benefiting innovative drugs, with nearly 90% of successful negotiations from 2021 to 2024 resulting in these drugs entering the insurance directory within two years of approval, a significant increase from previous years [4]. - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with a record number of licensing deals and transaction values, enhancing the certainty of overseas listings and valuations [6]. - The integration of AI in pharmaceutical research is projected to drive rapid growth in the smart pharmaceutical industry, with market size expected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [7]. - Improved external financing conditions, driven by lower global funding costs, are crucial for the high-investment, long-cycle nature of the pharmaceutical industry, particularly for innovative drugs [7].