Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that despite the postponement of the IMO net-zero framework vote, the trend towards green and low-carbon industries remains unchanged. The opposition mainly comes from the US and oil-producing countries in the Middle East, while the EU and China are aligned in their support for the framework. This indicates that even if the framework is not fully implemented globally, significant markets like the EU and China will still see good development opportunities [7] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in the petrochemical and chemical industries driven by "anti-involution" policies, with key stocks including Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, and Wanhua Chemical being recommended for investment [3] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends investing in Wankai New Materials (301216) for its leading position in the green polyester industry. It also suggests buying stocks in pesticide formulation companies like Runfeng Co. (301035), Guoguang Co. (002749), and Hailier (603639), which are less affected by trade disputes. Additionally, it identifies several petrochemical companies, including Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), as potential beneficiaries of the expected industry recovery [3] Industry Development Trends - The report discusses the impact of the IMO meeting on green methanol expectations, noting that while there are concerns about market development certainty, the overall growth of the green low-carbon industry is expected to continue. The report points out that the development of green aviation fuel (SAF) and recycled plastics will not be affected by the IMO vote delay, as these areas are driven by global decarbonization policies and environmental concerns [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustment is attributed to high valuations of U.S. financial assets relative to GDP, weakening service sector, and emerging contradictions in technology development, indicating that the true bull market for Chinese assets has not yet begun [1][2][5]. Market Adjustment Insights - The adjustment in the A-share market is not primarily driven by trade relations but rather by deeper economic factors, including high U.S. financial asset valuations and a weakening service sector [2]. - Recent communications between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials, along with easing concerns over U.S. regional bank bad debts, have led to a short-term market rebound, reducing the likelihood of a sharp decline [2]. Domestic Economic Indicators - Financial data shows a seasonal increase in new corporate medium-to-long-term loans and an above-seasonal growth in new household loans, indicating a potential recovery in terminal demand that could benefit midstream manufacturing and downstream profits [3]. - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has rebounded, particularly in upstream industries, suggesting a stabilization in prices due to ongoing anti-involution efforts [3]. - China's reliance on U.S. trade has decreased, with a notable recovery in overall export growth despite low year-on-year growth in exports to the U.S. [3]. Long-term Asset Considerations - Factors supporting gold's strength include expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks leading to a weaker dollar, and persistent government deficits abroad [4]. - The rapid increase in gold prices since late August has coincided with volatility in equity markets, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences among investors [4]. Structural Changes in Investment - The high valuations of U.S. financial assets and weakening service sector are exerting pressure on global technology advancements, with adjustments in Chinese assets being a normal part of the transition process [5][6]. - Recommended investment focus includes short-term attention on domestic industries with recovering sentiment, such as food and beverage, aviation, and coal [6]. - Mid-term investment should prioritize physical assets, including upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, power grid equipment) [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant decline in market risk appetite, with the North Exchange 50 index dropping by 4.91%, which is less than the declines of the Sci-Tech 50 (-6.16%) and the Growth Enterprise Board (-5.71%) [9][15][20] - The report highlights that the proportion of strong stocks in the North Exchange has fallen below 10%, suggesting that while the index is still adjusting, the relative weakness has been fully reflected over the past quarter, indicating potential accumulation of rebound momentum [9][10] - The report suggests maintaining focus on core assets in the North Exchange and companies with marginal changes, especially with several significant events expected in late October, including the release of third-quarter economic data and company reports [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw a total trading volume of 39.58 billion shares and a trading value of 925.82 billion yuan, with an average daily trading value of 185.16 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 2.57% week-on-week [21][15] - The report notes that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 77.79 times, with a median of 45.06 times, indicating a decrease in valuation metrics compared to previous weeks [23][24] - The report mentions that there was one new stock listed this week, Changjiang Nengke, which had a first-day price increase of 254.03% and a turnover rate of 67.65% [26][29] Group 3 - The report states that 34 stocks in the North Exchange rose while 244 fell, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.14, with Lituo Technology and Wantong Hydraulic leading the gains [35][38] - The report lists the top five stocks by turnover rate, with Jinhua New Material having a turnover rate of 137.56% despite a slight decline in price [41] - The report provides updates on new three-board listings, with 10 new companies listed and 1 delisted, raising a planned financing amount of 453 million yuan and completing 166 million yuan in financing [44][45]

基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 10 月 19 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《六氟磷酸锂供需面改善，陶氏一工 厂发生火灾影响其 MDI、乙烯等装置 生产—行业周报》-2025.10.12 《《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026 年）》印发，草铵膦、锦 纶行业反内卷有序推进—行业周报》 -2025.9.28 《UCO-SAF 供需持续偏紧，欧盟对美 SAF 征收反侵销税或凸显中国 SAF 竞 争力—行业点评报告》-2025.9.25 《水俣公约》有望加速电石法 PVC 落后产能淘汰， LG 化学计划关闭韩国 HDPE 工厂 ——行业周报 | 金益腾（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | |  本周行业观点：《水俣公约》有望加速电石法 | PVC ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the CANSLIM industry rotation strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors such as steel, banking, chemicals, electric power, and construction for investment opportunities [1][4][14] - The CANSLIM composite score has shown strong performance since 2013, with an average RankIC of 11.6% and a monthly win rate of 64.7%, indicating its effectiveness in distinguishing future industry returns [5][31] Industry Rotation Factor Performance - For the period from October 9 to October 17, 2025, factors such as broker stock changes, net inflow of large orders, and analyst upgrades performed well, while volume-adjusted momentum and price-to-book (PB) ratios lagged [2][16] - Year-to-date performance shows that SUE, analyst recognition, and broker stock changes have been strong, while volume-adjusted momentum and public fund holdings have underperformed [2][16] Last Month's Portfolio Performance Review - The industry rotation portfolio yielded a return of -3.56% from October 9 to October 17, 2025, compared to -2.23% for the CITIC first-level industry equal-weight index, resulting in an excess return of -1.33% [3][21] - Year-to-date, the portfolio has returned 14.70%, while the benchmark index returned 17.59%, leading to an excess return of -2.89% [3][21] Current Portfolio Recommendations - The top five industries based on the CANSLIM composite score are steel, banking, basic chemicals, electric power and new energy, and construction [4][23] - The report provides detailed scoring metrics for each industry, highlighting the importance of various dimensions such as industry crowding, analyst expectations, and fundamental conditions [4][25] CANSLIM Industry Rotation Strategy Construction and Performance - The CANSLIM strategy has demonstrated a robust annualized return of 22.94% since 2013, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 13.80% [5][36] - The strategy's maximum drawdown is 23.75%, with an information ratio of 1.29 and a monthly win rate of 73%, indicating strong risk-adjusted performance [5][36] Strategy Overview - The CANSLIM strategy incorporates multiple dimensions including industry crowding, analyst expectations, fundamental conditions, smart money flows, price momentum, institutional views, and macroeconomic valuation adjustments [26][30] - Each dimension is quantitatively assessed to guide investment decisions, ensuring a comprehensive approach to industry rotation [26][30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.39% and trading volume decreasing by 4.76% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance Summary - **Coal**: Slight increase of 0.12% with a transaction amount of 165.48 billion yuan, led by Antai Group which rose by 10.00% [1] - **Banking**: Minor decrease of 0.04% with a transaction amount of 302.99 billion yuan, led by Shanghai Bank which fell by 0.83% [1] - **Steel**: Decrease of 0.09% with a transaction amount of 133.07 billion yuan, led by Wujin Stainless Steel which dropped by 7.73% [1] - **Transportation**: Decrease of 0.11% with a transaction amount of 258.60 billion yuan, led by Pulutong which fell by 3.36% [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Decrease of 0.25% with a transaction amount of 119.79 billion yuan, led by Yingfeng Shares which dropped by 9.99% [1] - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Decrease of 0.29% with a transaction amount of 83.04 billion yuan, led by Compton which fell by 3.19% [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: Decrease of 0.45% with a transaction amount of 139.82 billion yuan, led by Aonong Biological which dropped by 4.66% [1] - **Real Estate**: Decrease of 0.52% with a transaction amount of 213.60 billion yuan, led by Wolong New Energy which fell by 7.80% [1] - **Utilities**: Decrease of 0.52% with a transaction amount of 302.04 billion yuan, led by *ST Lingda which dropped by 13.20% [1] - **Construction and Decoration**: Decrease of 0.75% with a transaction amount of 278.81 billion yuan, led by Kexin Development which fell by 8.15% [1] - **Home Appliances**: Decrease of 0.79% with a transaction amount of 217.37 billion yuan, led by Greer which dropped by 6.72% [1] - **Food and Beverage**: Decrease of 0.86% with a transaction amount of 194.67 billion yuan, led by Huaiqi Mountain which fell by 6.44% [1] - **Environmental Protection**: Decrease of 0.92% with a transaction amount of 140.79 billion yuan, led by Science which dropped by 6.68% [1] - **Retail**: Decrease of 0.97% with a transaction amount of 173.43 billion yuan, led by Ruoyu Chen which fell by 9.98% [1] - **Social Services**: Decrease of 1.07% with a transaction amount of 89.87 billion yuan, led by Chuangye Heima which dropped by 5.28% [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: Decrease of 1.12% with a transaction amount of 135.66 billion yuan, led by Songyang Resources which fell by 10.02% [1] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biology**: Decrease of 1.16% with a transaction amount of 845.22 billion yuan, led by Warner Pharmaceuticals which dropped by 7.67% [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: Decrease of 1.21% with a transaction amount of 618.91 billion yuan, led by Xinong Shares which fell by 8.88% [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Decrease of 1.24% with a transaction amount of 1149.11 billion yuan, led by Galaxy Magnetics which dropped by 7.14% [1] - **Telecommunications**: Decrease of 1.28% with a transaction amount of 806.90 billion yuan, led by Shijia Photon which fell by 17.59% [1] - **Non-bank Financials**: Decrease of 1.39% with a transaction amount of 491.74 billion yuan, led by Hainan Huatie which dropped by 6.17% [1] - **Building Materials**: Decrease of 1.66% with a transaction amount of 94.02 billion yuan, led by Yaopi Glass which fell by 7.82% [1] - **Media**: Decrease of 1.68% with a transaction amount of 263.96 billion yuan, led by Vision China which dropped by 9.93% [1] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: Decrease of 1.76% with a transaction amount of 33.94 billion yuan, led by Baiya Shares which fell by 4.98% [1] - **Computers**: Decrease of 2.38% with a transaction amount of 1005.18 billion yuan, led by Kaipu Cloud which dropped by 11.94% [1] - **Comprehensive**: Decrease of 2.42% with a transaction amount of 27.84 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang which fell by 4.70% [1] - **Defense and Military Industry**: Decrease of 2.55% with a transaction amount of 387.73 billion yuan, led by Hangyu Technology which dropped by 8.38% [1] - **Machinery and Equipment**: Decrease of 2.68% with a transaction amount of 940.87 billion yuan, led by Yingweike which fell by 10.00% [1] - **Automobiles**: Decrease of 2.69% with a transaction amount of 775.95 billion yuan, led by Tianpu Shares which dropped by 10.00% [1] - **Electronics**: Decrease of 3.19% with a transaction amount of 2631.19 billion yuan, led by Nanya New Materials which fell by 16.26% [1] - **Electric Power Equipment**: Decrease of 3.79% with a transaction amount of 1881.52 billion yuan, led by Shenghong Shares which dropped by 11.80% [1]

Core Insights - The chairman of DaoSheng TianHe, Ji Gang, emphasized that the company's listing marks the beginning of a new journey and is both an honor and a responsibility, thanking various stakeholders for their support [2] - DaoSheng TianHe aims to strengthen corporate governance and focus on technological innovation and global market expansion, aligning with the national "dual carbon" strategy to become a leading global provider of new material solutions [2] - The company has established itself as a leader in the new materials sector, particularly in the wind power industry, with its epoxy resin for wind turbine blades being the largest in global production scale [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 was reported as 3.436 billion, 3.202 billion, 3.238 billion, and 1.785 billion respectively, with net profits of 108 million, 152 million, 155 million, and 85 million respectively [3] - DaoSheng TianHe has been expanding its product offerings in new composite materials and automotive adhesives, becoming one of the few domestic companies to master multiple basic chemical raw material formulations [3] Future Development - DaoSheng TianHe plans to leverage capital market resources for diversified development and to enhance its global presence, aiming to become a comprehensive new materials company [4] - The company is committed to developing high-performance thermosetting resin materials and expanding its product and market development in the photovoltaic and power sectors, while also providing domestic companies with import substitution solutions [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Sino-US relationship is currently in a stage of game, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The market is supported by funds actively propping up heavyweight stocks, leading to a rebound in the broader market index. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Regarding the Sino-US relationship, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. In the spot market, A-share indexes closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10% to 3916.23 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.38%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% to 45952.24 points. In the futures market, the basis of the current-month contract converged upon expiration, and the trading volume and open interest of the IH contract increased [1]. Strategy - The Sino-US relationship is in a game stage, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. In the market, funds are actively supporting heavyweight stocks, driving the broader market index to rebound. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [2]. Macro - Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on October 16, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the margin trading balance [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IH contract increased by 5009, and the open interest increased by 6373. The basis data of different contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are also presented, as well as the inter - period spreads between different contracts [16][38].

Company Overview - N道生 was listed today with an opening price of 24.77 yuan, representing an increase of 314.21% from the issue price [2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-performance thermosetting resin systems based on epoxy resin, polyurethane, acrylic, and organic silicon [2] Financial Highlights - The total number of shares issued was 132 million, with 72.12 million shares offered online at an issue price of 5.98 yuan per share [2] - The issue price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.05, compared to the industry average P/E ratio of 27.90 [2] - The effective subscription number for the online issuance was 13.14 million, with a final winning rate of 0.04220717% [2] - The initial fundraising amount was 789 million yuan, primarily allocated to projects for producing 78,000 tons of high-end adhesives and composite resin systems for new energy and power batteries, repaying bank loans, and supplementing working capital [2] Recent IPO Performance - Recent IPOs have shown significant first-day performance, with N道生 leading at 314.21% increase, followed by other companies like 长江能科 with 294.00% and 奥美森 with 337.70% [2][3] - The table of recent IPOs indicates a trend of high first-day returns across various sectors, including basic chemicals, machinery, electronics, and automotive [2][3]

Core Insights - A total of 126 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with 102 companies expecting profit increases, representing 80.95% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 87.30%, with 8 companies expecting profits and 10 and 3 companies forecasting profit declines and losses, respectively [1] Company Performance - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 48 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 38 companies anticipate growth between 50% and 100% [1] - XianDa Co., Ltd. is projected to have the highest net profit growth at 3009.81%, followed by Chujiang New Materials at 2150.09% and Yinglian Co., Ltd. at 1602.05% [1][2] Industry Analysis - The companies expecting profit growth are primarily concentrated in the basic chemicals, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with 8, 8, and 6 companies respectively [1] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market have 31, 11, and 6 companies respectively among those forecasting profit growth [1] Stock Performance - Since July, stocks of companies expecting profit growth have averaged a 28.31% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Northern Rare Earth has seen the largest increase at 113.45%, followed by Guangku Technology and Changchuan Technology with increases of 111.42% and 89.69% respectively [2] Capital Flow - In the past five days, the stocks with significant net inflows include Feirongda, Yuanda Intelligent, and Luoxin Pharmaceutical, with net inflows of 171.57 million, 113.84 million, and 69.74 million respectively [2] - Conversely, Northern Rare Earth, Changchuan Technology, and Jinli Permanent Magnet experienced significant net outflows of 568.86 million, 250.41 million, and 131.07 million respectively [2]