资产配置 | 动态跟踪 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转向 ——资产配置模型月报 202512 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights structural opportunities in sectors like commercial aerospace and AI mobile phones, suggesting a positive outlook for these areas [3]. Core Insights - The market experienced a short-term adjustment primarily due to the pullback in previously popular sectors such as the lithium battery industry and CROs. However, there are still structural opportunities present, particularly in specialized and innovative enterprises [3]. - The recent adjustments to the North Exchange 50 Index, which included high-growth companies in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, are expected to enhance the index's representation of innovative sectors [3]. - The establishment of various local bond financing subsidy policies is aimed at supporting technology innovation bonds and green bonds, indicating a favorable policy environment for these sectors [2][17]. - The launch of the drug price registration system is anticipated to resolve the pricing reference issues for innovative drugs, potentially attracting more multinational pharmaceutical companies to invest in China [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On December 2, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 139.4 billion, a decrease of 16.6 billion from the previous trading day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1398.13, down 0.76%, with a PE_TTM of 66.23 times. The specialized and innovative index closed at 2343.26, down 0.84% [7][12]. Stock Performance - Among the 286 companies listed on the North Exchange, 34 saw an increase in stock prices, 5 remained flat, and 247 experienced declines. The top five gainers included Jingchu Electric (330.7%), Kun Gong Technology (7.1%), and Longzhu Technology (6.7%). The top five decliners included Deer Chemical (-6.0%) and Henghe Co. (-5.2%) [14][15]. Important News - Multiple regions have introduced bond financing subsidy policies, with one area offering a subsidy of 400,000 for issuing technology innovation bonds. This reflects a shift towards a multi-faceted support model for local financing initiatives [2]. - The drug price registration system launched on December 2 aims to address the lack of reference pricing for innovative drugs, which could significantly enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceuticals [17]. Company Announcements - Ruihua Technology announced the receipt of a patent for a method of preparing high-impact polystyrene, indicating ongoing innovation within the company [18]. - Gobi Jia disclosed plans for a shareholder to reduce holdings by up to 2.8 million shares, representing 1.94% of total equity, due to operational management needs [19].

17股最新股东户数降逾一成 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，共有703只个股公布了11月30日股东户数，与上期（11月20日）相比，股东 户数下降的有350只。其中股东户数降幅超一成的有17只。 703只股公布截至11月30日最新股东户数，相比上期股东户数下降的有350只，降幅居前的是华英农业、 海马汽车、杭州高新等。 投资者除了在定期报告中获得股东信息数据外，还可以在交易所互动平台上通过提问方式了解部分公司 更及时（每月10日、20日、月末）的股东户数信息。以往3期分别有923家、944家、1037家公司在互动 平台透露了股东户数，截至发稿，共有703家公司公布了截至11月30日股东户数。 上期筹码集中股回测：40%跑赢沪指 证券时报·数据宝对上一期(11月20日)筹码集中股监测显示，这些股11月11日以来平均下跌3.23%，走势 强于同期沪指表现（下跌3.50%），其中，40%的筹码集中股相对大盘获超额收益。 上期股东户数降逾一成个股中，绿岛风涨幅最高，11月11日以来累计上涨48.74%，涨幅居前的还有普 路通、常山药业等。 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新股东户数 | 较上期增减（%） | 筹码集中以来涨跌（% ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission on December 3, launching from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Experimental Zone [3] - A meeting was held by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and other units to accelerate the construction of a space data center, which includes a plan for a space data center innovation consortium [3] - Shunhao Co., Ltd. saw its stock hit the daily limit on December 3 following the announcement of the space data center initiative [3] Group 2: Offshore Wind Power - Dajin Heavy Industry signed a supply contract with Skyborn Renewables for the Gennaker offshore wind project in Germany, with a total contract value of 1.339 billion yuan [5][6] - The contract includes a unit price of 53,000 yuan per ton, significantly exceeding market expectations, marking a shift for Dajin from a basic equipment supplier to a one-stop solution provider [6] - Dajin Heavy Industry's overseas orders exceed 10 billion yuan, with a projected 20% growth in overseas delivery volume by 2026, supporting stable performance growth [6] Group 3: AI Mobile Phones - Nubia's M153, the first phone equipped with the Doubao mobile assistant, sold out quickly, with second-hand prices ranging from 300 to 3,500 yuan [11] - The integration of Doubao's large model into mobile phones is expected to drive the formation of an Agent model, enhancing the operating system's capabilities [11][13] - Daoming Optical experienced a stock surge on December 3, linked to developments in the AI mobile phone sector [11][13] Group 4: Consumer Goods - The "Guangde Three-Piece Set" including Guangde stewing pot, Kawan Kawa milk tea, and Zhanji peach crisp has gained significant popularity, becoming a "internet celebrity" phenomenon [15] - The implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand is expected to accelerate industry upgrades, benefiting companies like Hai Xin Food, which saw a four-day stock increase [15][16] - Anji Food also experienced a stock surge on December 3, following favorable policies in Fujian province [17][18]

Core Points - The 380 Materials Index closed at 5016.02 points, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 17.967 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.39% [1] - Among the index constituents, 22 stocks rose while 27 stocks fell, with Jiangshan Co., Ltd. leading the gainers at a 3.49% increase and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. leading the decliners with a 2.31% drop [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the 380 Materials Index include: - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (7.57% weight, latest price 30.88, -2.31% change, market cap 58.685 billion yuan) [1] - Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (5.62% weight, latest price 30.67, -0.07% change, market cap 55.911 billion yuan) [1] - Western Mining Co., Ltd. (5.45% weight, latest price 24.10, +1.26% change, market cap 57.430 billion yuan) [1] - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (4.66% weight, latest price 35.17, +0.49% change, market cap 55.835 billion yuan) [1] - Dongyangguang (4.53% weight, latest price 20.75, -0.29% change, market cap 62.448 billion yuan) [1] - Western Yao Dao (4.28% weight, latest price 64.69, -1.40% change, market cap 42.027 billion yuan) [1] - Shenghe Resources Holding Co., Ltd. (4.14% weight, latest price 20.90, +0.10% change, market cap 36.634 billion yuan) [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., Ltd. (3.88% weight, latest price 10.63, +0.95% change, market cap 34.583 billion yuan) [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (3.68% weight, latest price 15.27, -0.84% change, market cap 36.721 billion yuan) [1] - Xingfa Group (3.57% weight, latest price 32.13, -0.65% change, market cap 35.448 billion yuan) [1] Capital Flow Summary - The 380 Materials Index constituents experienced a net outflow of 332 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 218 million yuan [3] - Key capital flow details include: - Suotong Development Co., Ltd. had a main fund net inflow of 101 million yuan [3] - Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. saw a main fund net inflow of 54.83 million yuan [3] - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. recorded a main fund net inflow of 50.38 million yuan [3] - Shenghe Resources had a main fund net inflow of 19.69 million yuan [3]

- The report discusses the IPO performance in November 2025, highlighting that 11 new stocks were listed across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, raising a total of 101.88 billion yuan [2][8] - The average first-day increase for the six new stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 209%, with notable variations among individual stocks [2][11] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the IPO performance by market segment, including the main board, STAR Market, and ChiNext, with specific examples such as Daming Electronics and Hengkun New Materials [11][14] - The report also includes a comprehensive analysis of the monthly IPO subscription returns, with A/B class accounts earning 73.17/71.87 million yuan respectively in November 2025 [14][16] - The report suggests that the "inclusion" strategy remains optimal, recommending active participation in low-priced, small-cap new stocks with high first-day increase potential, as well as large-cap stocks with significant offline allocation [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price of 16.50 yuan [6][13]. Core Insights - The controlling shareholder, China Energy Conservation, plans to increase its stake in the company by 365 to 730 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's future development prospects [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.826 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.31% [13]. - The company is actively expanding into the new materials sector, with significant projects underway, including the second phase of the Wanrun Industrial Park, which will produce semiconductor-related materials [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 4.305 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.693 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 4.857 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 13.6% from 2025 to 2027 [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease significantly from 763 million yuan in 2023 to 246 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 577 million yuan by 2027 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 0.63 yuan in 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 13.069 billion yuan, with a 52-week stock price range of 9.79 to 14.39 yuan [7][8]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 7.80 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.8 [8][14]. Industry Context - The company operates within the basic chemicals and raw materials sector, focusing on new materials [5].

中银证券指出，化工板块估值处于历史低位，十二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内 卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能源 材料公司。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%，"反内卷"政策是石化产业核心主 线，行业供需与盈利能力有望持续改善。 每日经济新闻 截至12月3日11:10，石化ETF（159731）涨0.48%，持仓股杭氧股份、亚钾国际、万华化学、藏格矿业 等涨幅居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近8天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"2215万元；份 额方面，石化ETF最新份额达2.38亿份，创近1年新高。 12月1日，中国石油宣布，我国首套百千瓦级油气伴生废水电解制氢系统——100千瓦级油气伴生废水电 解制氢系统，在长庆苏里格气田成功投运，这标志着我国在油气废水"降污—制氢"全链条资源化利用领 域取得实质性突破。油气废水制氢系统的成功投运，是石化行业与新能源技术融合的典型案例。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in valuation and profitability, with signs of recovery in profit margins and a potential upward trend in the economic cycle driven by demand recovery and resource supply contraction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 3, 2025, the chemical sector index rose by 0.87%, with notable gains from stocks such as Hangzhou Oxygen Plant (up 4.48%) and Yara International (up 4.42%) [1]. - The basic chemical sector's net profit increased by 7.45% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a recovery trend despite mixed performance across sub-sectors [1]. - The overall chemical industry remains at a low level of prosperity, but a gradual improvement in profit margins is becoming evident [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to benefit from reduced supply-side pressures and a global monetary easing environment, particularly with the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate downstream demand [1]. - The focus on "anti-involution" policies is crucial as multiple sub-industries face competitive pressures, and the industry is likely to accelerate the release of high-performance new materials driven by AI demand [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors can track the chemical sector through the Jia Shi Chemical ETF (159129), which closely follows the China Securities Index for the chemical industry [2]. - There are also opportunities for off-market investors to engage with the chemical sector via the Chemical ETF Connect Fund (013527) [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The number of shareholders in 279 ChiNext stocks has decreased as of November 30, with 134 stocks experiencing a decline, and 4 stocks seeing a drop of over 10% [1]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - The stock with the largest decrease in shareholder numbers is Hangzhou Gaoxin, which has 10,361 shareholders, down 18.01% from the previous period, with a cumulative drop of 8.02% in stock price since the concentration of shares began [1]. - Allianz Vision has 4,708 shareholders, a decrease of 12.80%, while its stock price has increased by 5.75% during the same period [1]. - *ST Kaixin has 5,107 shareholders, down 12.18%, with a stock price increase of 1.79% since the concentration began [1]. Group 2: Continuous Shareholder Decline - A total of 35 ChiNext stocks have shown a continuous decline in shareholder numbers for more than three consecutive periods, with some stocks experiencing a decline for up to nine periods [1]. - Notable stocks with significant cumulative declines in shareholder numbers include Cooltech Intelligent, which has decreased by 16.05% over nine periods, and Zhukang Design, down 21.92% over the same timeframe [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The average decline for concentrated stocks since November 21 is 1.10%, with notable gainers including Hengbo Co., up 20.89%, and Kaiwang Technology, up 12.64% [2]. - Industries with the most concentrated stocks include machinery, power equipment, and biomedicine, with 19, 16, and 15 stocks respectively [2]. Group 4: Fund Flow - As of December 2, 30 concentrated stocks have attracted leveraged funds, with Hengbo Co. and Kaiwang Technology seeing financing balances increase by 18.07% and 16.63%, respectively [2].