水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 费尽心机 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，沪指日线九连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨0.04%，收报3965.28点； 深证成指跌0.49%，收报13537.10点；创业板指跌0.66%，收报3222.61点。 沪深两市成 交额21393亿，较上一交易日小幅缩量209亿。 老水看盘 上证指数上涨 0.04% ，实现九连阳，创下一项市场记录。 截至最后集合竞价阶段，主力资金仍在积极护盘，即便上证 50 （ IH ）与沪深 300 （ IF ）股指期货同步杀跌，依旧推动指数收红， 的确用心良苦， 护盘意图显著。 午后大盘出现两波跳水行情，因权重指标股的托举作用，上证指数的跳水幅度并不明显，但深 圳市场跳水特征更为突出。尾盘阶段，以农业银行为代表的银行股逆势上涨，持续对冲指数下 行压力，最终助力上证指数守住红盘。全天成交额达 2.14 万亿元，与前一交易日基本持平， 市场换手率维持高位，交易活跃度充足。 北上资金 今天 恢复交易，净流入沪深两市约 2250 亿元，占 今天 成交额的 10% ，处于正 常区间水平。 板块表现呈现明显的利好驱动与利空压制分化： 利好驱动板块：商业航天板 ...

截至收盘，恒生指数报收于25635.23点，下跌183.70点，跌幅0.71%。 12月29日，港股市场早盘一度冲高，恒指最高涨超1%，但午后市场回落，最终主要指数均出现下跌。 热点板块方面，新能源车整体走高。其中，蔚来涨近5%，小鹏涨超3%，理想涨超1%。内银股逆势上涨，农行涨超2%，招行、建行、中行等大型银行均有 不错表现。 每经记者｜曾子建 每经编辑｜袁东 焦点公司方面，阿里巴巴（HK09988）下跌1.85%，拖累大盘；小米集团（HK01810）因副董事长计划减持，最终下跌1.63%。 此外，博彩股悉数走低，美高梅中国（HK02282）大跌超17%。摩根士丹利发布研究报告，自明年起，美高梅中国向母公司美高梅国际支付的牌照费，将从 月度综合收益净额的1.75%提至3.5%。预计美高梅中国明年新牌照费达12亿港元，今年为6亿港元。 该行预计，美高梅中国明年EBITDA或按年降5%，利润 率收窄220个基点。不过，摩根士丹利对博彩股仍持建设性看法。 恒生科技指数早盘一度涨超2%，最终报收于5483.01点，下跌16.29点，跌幅0.30%。 后市展望： 银河证券表示，受假期因素影响，港股市场交投活跃度较低， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's continuous rise last week was due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. The main driving force of the market came from internal structural changes, with cyclical sectors led by non - ferrous metals driving the index up. The repair of risk appetite was also supported by the external environment such as the phased appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the marginal improvement of overseas liquidity expectations [5]. - The Spring Festival - before market still has upward space, and there are short - term opportunities for bottom - fishing. The main risk factors restricting the market have weakened, and risk appetite is expected to remain high. The market is in a stage of preparing for the Spring Festival - before market, and the short - term market is likely to rise gradually with internal structural adjustments [8]. - The technology theme is the most elastic main line in the Spring Festival market, focusing on sub - sectors such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power. Overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors can be configured with a medium - term holding strategy. The non - banking financial sector has certain allocation value. In the consumer sector, it is more appropriate to grasp thematic trading opportunities, focusing on sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 4.07%. Among the major industry indices, the Materials Index and the Information Technology Index performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 5.85% and 4.36% respectively, while the Daily Consumption Index and the Telecommunication Services Index performed weakly, with decreases of - 0.65% and - 0.34% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment having larger increases of 6.43%, 6.00%, and 5.37% respectively, and beauty care, social services, and banks having larger decreases of - 1.08%, - 1.05%, and - 1.01% respectively [9][14][17]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1,965.166 billion yuan (the previous value was 1,760.484 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (87.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [19]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of December 26, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.27, an increase of 0.48 from the previous week, at the 94.00% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [24]. Market Observation - **Reasons for the Market Rise**: The continuous rise of the market last week was mainly due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. There were no new direct positive factors from policies and news, and the driving force came from internal structural changes. The rise of the index was led by cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, and the external environment also supported the repair of risk appetite [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the technology theme, overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors, the non - banking financial sector, and thematic trading opportunities in the consumer sector, especially sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions to pay attention to global economic data, but specific data details are not provided [26].

12月29日，港股科技ETF（513020）涨超0.2%，板块有望回升，港股科技布局窗口开启。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 港股通科技指数相比恒生科技指数超配新能源车、创新药、半导体等行业，从业绩表现来看，从 2014年底基日开始至2025年10月底，港股通科技指数累计收益256.46%，相对恒生科技指数（96.94%） 超额近160%，长期跑赢恒生科技指数、沪港深互联网指数、恒生互联网科技业指数、恒生医疗保健指 数等同类指数。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 12月29日白银上演史诗级过山车行情，盘中突破84美元后闪崩9%，年内170%暴涨背后暗藏多空资本血 腥博弈，市场情绪极端分化。 一、极端行情与波动风险 单日巨震刷新历史：12月29日亚洲早盘，现货白银暴力冲高至84美元/盎司，随后跳水至75美元，日内 振幅超9%。年内累计涨幅达174%，杠杆投资者单日亏损可达47万元，有散户账面浮盈18万后瞬间回 吐。 光伏（占全球需求55%）、新能源车（单车用银量60克以上）及AI服务器推高用银量，2025年供需缺口 达2960吨。 但反对派指出实际工业缺口仅占年产量的4%，库存枯竭实为投机借口。 三、产业与市场连锁冲击 制造业成本危机：马斯克预警白银暴涨冲击特斯拉及SpaceX供应链，光伏银浆成本占比升至17%超越硅 料，中国企业加速研发铜浆替代技术。 地缘博弈升温：传闻俄罗斯推进银本位、印度大额采购白银交换原油，多国将其列为战略资源。中国削 减白银出口85%仅为市场传闻，无官方文件证实。 杠杆风险集中爆发：国投白银LOF因溢价率超68%紧急限购，COMEX期银与现货比例高达120:1，交易 所库存仅覆盖1.2个月需求，加剧流动性危机。 二、暴涨动 ...

恒生指数高开0.43%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%。新能源车概念股普涨，小鹏汽车涨逾5%，零跑汽车涨逾 4%，比亚迪股份、理想汽车、蔚来涨逾3%。 来源：第一财经 (本文来自第一财经) ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：云观经济 文：董忠云 刘庆东 王警仪 李博伦 庞晨 杨子萌 摘要 本周海外迎来圣诞假期，美股"圣诞行情"或已开启，虽然全球市场交投清淡但市场情绪较为良好。A股 方面，本轮经济转型牛为慢牛，春季躁动相比与以往，中枢抬升或更加稳健，且持续时间更长。一方 面， 12月中旬全球市场对于AI泡沫和日央行加息的双重担忧下，A股震荡区间的下沿已被进一步夯 实，同时海外双重担忧已逐渐被市场消化，因此本轮春季躁动行情起点或已基本明确，此后如有调整则 应更积极处理。另一方面，当前国内基本面稳增长的效果仍需进一步确认，本轮慢牛行情下，春季躁动 或为震荡抬升，因此不宜过于激进，后续等待新的催化出现后，A股中枢有望再创新高，并开启新一轮 行情。 回顾历史上A股两轮较大的科技景气度投资行情——移动互联网行情和新能源车行情。具体复盘发现， 这两轮景气度投资行情均可分为三个阶段。首先，资本开支底部回升确认产业趋势，估值上升；进一 步，业绩得到验证，为行情接力；最后，业绩增速见顶后，行情进入尾声。 自2022年11月ChatGPT发布以来，近两年AI产业链多个环节 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current economic transition is characterized as a "slow bull" market, with the upcoming spring rally expected to be more stable and prolonged compared to previous years [4][6] - The report highlights that the A-share market has solidified its lower trading range amidst global concerns over AI bubbles and interest rate hikes, suggesting a clear starting point for the spring rally [4][6] - Historical analysis of major tech investment cycles in A-shares, such as the mobile internet and new energy vehicle trends, reveals that these cycles typically unfold in three phases: capital expenditure recovery, performance validation, and peak performance leading to market decline [4][8] Industry Analysis - The AI industry has seen a significant increase in capital expenditure since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with major Chinese internet companies committing to AI strategies [27][28] - Currently, only the optical module segment appears to be in the performance validation phase, while other segments of the AI industry are still in the initial phase of capital expenditure driving valuation increases [27][28] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the stock market as the AI technology revolution gains full momentum [27][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors with marginal catalysts, as the current market phase is characterized by a gradual upward trend rather than aggressive speculation [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of waiting for new catalysts to emerge before making significant investments, as the A-share market is expected to reach new highs in the future [4][5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.43%, the National Index up by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.88% [1] - New energy vehicle stocks saw a broad increase, while copper and other non-ferrous metal stocks led the rise in the sector [1] - Semiconductor stocks showed strong performance, while the consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a small decline [1] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - In the first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure, policy benefits have stimulated market activity, with impressive data in duty-free shopping and foreign trade [1] - Duty-free shopping figures for the first week reached 1.1 billion yuan, with 775,000 items purchased and 165,000 shoppers, representing year-on-year increases of 54.9%, 11.8%, and 34.1% respectively [1] - The number of newly registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan increased by 1972, a year-on-year growth of 230%, with over 30,000 new registered customs declaration units for the year, up over 40% [1] - The passenger throughput at Meilan Airport during the first week post-closure increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in ticket bookings for the New Year holiday [1] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to significantly boost consumption in the coming year, implementing special actions to support consumer spending [2] - The government will continue to allocate funds for consumer goods trade-in programs and adjust subsidy ranges and standards [2] Group 4: Related ETFs - Tourism ETF (562510) is positioned to benefit from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy [3] - Food and Beverage ETF (515170) is seen as undervalued in the context of boosting domestic demand [3] - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) is linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of carbon fiber products, driven by a price increase announcement from Japan's Toray Industries, which will take effect in January 2026, with a price hike range of 10% to 20% for its TORAYCA brand products [3]. Group 1: Carbon Fiber Industry - The carbon fiber concept stocks saw an initial rise, with companies like Guangwei Composites and Jilin Carbon Valley increasing by over 10%, and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit [3]. - The price increase by Toray Industries is expected to impact the market dynamics and pricing strategies of carbon fiber manufacturers globally [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 1%, with companies like Li Auto and Xpeng Motors showing significant gains, while Xiaomi experienced a decline of over 2% [5]. - The A-share market opened with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.02% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.19%, indicating varied investor sentiment across sectors [6]. - The energy metal sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in copper and silver futures, reflecting a bullish trend in commodity markets [9][10].