Core Insights - The establishment of the "Qian Dama & Xinrongmao New Plum Standard Planting Demonstration Base" in Kashgar, Xinjiang, marks a significant step in the "Jiangpin Southbound" strategy, facilitating the entry of high-quality Xinjiang plums into the national market [2][3][30]. Group 1 - The new base aims to strengthen the supply chain for Xinjiang's premium plums, leveraging the region's unique high-altitude climate and natural environment, which are ideal for cultivating high-quality plums [11][12][18]. - The collaboration between Qian Dama and Xinrongmao is part of a broader initiative to enhance the agricultural value chain in Xinjiang, focusing on the standardization and industrialization of local agricultural products [16][28]. - A comprehensive and traceable quality supply system for plums has been established, covering all stages from planting to delivery, ensuring the freshness and quality of the plums [21][24]. Group 2 - This initiative aligns with national rural revitalization strategies and aims to promote the efficient southward movement of Xinjiang products, thereby increasing agricultural efficiency and farmers' income [30][32]. - The partnership builds on previous successful collaborations in high-end fruit categories, indicating a strong foundation for future joint ventures [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market inventory of apples is low, and the market demand is in the off - season, with general spot sales. The production of new - season apples is expected to change little compared to this season. The recent weakening of early - maturing apple prices puts pressure on the market, but the prices of high - quality Gala apples are performing well. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 6.86, up 0.04 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8054, up 36; AP05 at 8029, up 24; AP10 at 8141, up 47. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increasing by 12 and AP05 - AP10 decreasing by 23 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts changed. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 36, and Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 decreased by 47 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 46.01 tons, a decrease of 7.58 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4]. - **Customs Data**: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73% and a year - on - year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.76% [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The apple market in the producing areas was stable last Friday. The cold - storage shipping speed in Shandong was slow, while the early - maturing apple market in the northwest was generally good. The prices of high - quality goods were stable, while the prices of low - quality and small fruits declined. The overall market arrival volume was okay, and the profit margin of Gala apples was average [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream prices of apples in Qixia, Shandong were stable. The prices of different grades and types of apples varied, and the procurement enthusiasm of merchants was average, with low trading volume [7]. Trading Logic - The spot market has low inventory and is in the off - season, with general sales. The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season. The weakening of early - maturing apple prices pressures the market, but high - quality Gala apple prices are good, so the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including the prices of different apple varieties, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the whole country, and the cold - storage outbound volume of apples in the whole country [14][17][21][23][28].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in the prices of imported fruits in China, which were once considered luxury items, due to advancements in domestic fruit cultivation, improved supply chain efficiency, and a more rational consumer mindset [1] Supply Side - The primary reason for the decline in imported fruit prices is the dramatic changes on the supply side, with countries like Chile and the USA expanding cherry cultivation, leading to a projected 30% increase in cherry exports to China by 2025 [3] - The transportation time for cherries has been reduced to 26 hours, resulting in a surge in market supply, where distributors now need to actively promote sales [3] - In the blueberry sector, countries like Peru and Chile have utilized frozen fruit technology to provide year-round supply, while China's Yunnan province has increased its blueberry planting area to 249,000 acres, accounting for one-third of the national output, with a projected 30% increase in total production by 2024 [3] Demand Side - Consumer preferences for imported fruits are becoming more rational, with a rise in low-sugar health demands, as evidenced by a 23% increase in online blueberry sales in 2024, while high-sugar fruits like lychee and mango see slowed growth [3] - Over-packaging has faced backlash, with a specific brand's grapes criticized for high packaging costs, leading to a 50% price drop due to poor sales [3] Technological Empowerment - The quality improvement of domestic fruits is attributed to technological innovations, such as precision cultivation techniques in Yunnan's blueberry industry, which enhance fruit size and sweetness [4] - An agricultural company in Shandong has utilized AI technology for strawberry cultivation, increasing prices by 50% and achieving annual sales exceeding 30 million yuan [4] - A modern industrial park in Xinjiang has established a standardized supply chain, allowing domestic plums to reach retail outlets within 48 hours at half the price of imported plums [4] Scale of Cultivation - The shift from smallholder farming to large-scale cultivation has significantly reduced costs, exemplified by the expansion of sunshine rose grape cultivation from 100,000 acres in 2016 to 1.2 million acres in 2023, resulting in a price drop from the "hundred yuan range" to the "ten yuan range" [5] - The Yunnan blueberry industry has also seen a clustering effect, with foreign and domestic companies collaborating on standardized cultivation, leading to a return on investment period of just 8 months [5] Channel Innovation - The rise of fresh e-commerce and community group buying has compressed the premium space for imported fruits, with platforms like Pinduoduo and Hema attracting middle-class consumers through competitive pricing and fresh offerings [6] - A company is set to launch bulk shipments of Hainan durians in 2025, leveraging direct supply from Malaysian plantations to reduce intermediary costs [6] High-End Market Shift - In response to competition from domestic alternatives, imported fruits are pivoting towards high-end niche markets, with products like Thai durians and Japanese grapes targeting premium consumers [7] - Imported fruits are also innovating with new products, such as frozen avocado pulp from Peru and off-season stone fruits from South Africa, to fill market gaps [7] Brand Development Challenges - Despite the advantages in production and pricing, domestic fruits face challenges in brand development, with inconsistent quality leading to price drops for certain products [8] - Brands like "Jiawo Blueberry" and "Yantai Apple" have successfully established premium images through geographic certification and quality control [8] Supply Chain Integration - The competition between imported and domestic fruits has evolved into a contest of supply chain efficiency, with Cambodian durians achieving 48-hour delivery and Yunnan blueberries utilizing logistics to cover the entire country [9] - Future competition in the fruit industry will focus on cost reduction through technology, channel efficiency, and quality enhancement, with successful companies needing to build strong brand identities [9] Overcapacity and Quality Risks - The expansion of domestic fruit production carries risks of overcapacity, with growers expressing concerns about potential price drops below cost due to oversupply [10] - The 30% production drop of Guangdong lychees in 2024 due to cold weather highlights the vulnerabilities of single production areas [10] Deep Processing Opportunities - In a highly competitive fresh fruit market, deep processing is emerging as a new growth area, with increasing demand for products like dried fruits and fruit wines [11] - An enterprise focusing on durian deep processing has reported a 40% increase in annual profits [11] Global and Local Balance - The Chinese fruit market is increasingly integrated into the global trade system, with new varieties from South Africa and Colombia entering the market, while domestic fruits are also being exported to Southeast Asia [12] - Companies need to balance local demands with global resource integration, such as adapting blueberry varieties to Chinese tastes while promoting Hainan durians internationally [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in China's fruit market, highlighting the rise of domestic fruit production and the decline in prices of imported fruits, driven by increased supply and changing consumer preferences [4][5][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - China's per capita fresh fruit consumption increased from 40.5 kg in 2014 to 61.6 kg in 2024, a growth of over 50% in ten years [3]. - The recent viral topic of "earning 20,000 yuan a month but unable to afford fruits" reflects the rising prices in the fruit market, particularly for popular varieties [4]. - Key imported fruits like cherries and blueberries have seen price drops of 20-30% due to increased supply from both domestic and international sources [7][19]. Group 2: Domestic Production Growth - Domestic alternatives to imported fruits are emerging, with local varieties of cherries, kiwis, blueberries, and dragon fruits gaining market share [10][11]. - The market share of domestic fruits has risen to approximately 64.1% in 2022, with a stable trend of around 60% in recent years [11]. - The production of blueberries in China has reached over 1.4 million acres, making it the largest producer globally, with Yunnan contributing one-third of the total output [13]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The price of imported cherries has decreased by 20-30% compared to the previous year, while domestic cherries are capturing market share during their peak season [8][10]. - The price of blueberries has dropped significantly, with wholesale prices falling from 170-180 yuan per box to 60-70 yuan [8][19]. - The price of domestic sunshine roses has also decreased from 7-8 yuan per pound to around 2 yuan due to increased planting and market saturation [17][18]. Group 4: Supply Chain Improvements - The traditional multi-layered supply chain for fruits is being streamlined through new retail and e-commerce models, reducing costs and improving efficiency [21][22]. - Direct partnerships between producers and retailers are emerging, allowing for better alignment of supply with consumer demand [23]. - The optimization of the supply chain is a key factor in the transformation of the fruit market, alongside advancements in cultivation techniques and logistics [23].

Core Insights - China is a major consumer of fruits, with per capita fresh fruit consumption increasing from 40.5 kg a decade ago to 61.6 kg in 2024, representing over a 50% growth [1] - The recent discussion around "earning 20,000 yuan a month but unable to afford Baiguoyuan" has sparked significant public interest [1] - The pricing of fruits varies significantly based on type, with key popular varieties experiencing market-driven pricing influenced by transportation and cold chain costs [1] - Many key fruit varieties are primarily imported, but the rise of domestic alternatives is leading to a decrease in prices for some imported high-end fruits [1] Group 1: Price Trends of Imported Fruits - Imported fruit prices have significantly decreased, with cherries dropping by 20-30% compared to last year, and blueberries and plums also entering a "affordable era" [3] - The increase in supply from major fruit-producing countries has led to a substantial rise in the volume of imported fruits available in the Chinese market [3] - The price of imported blueberries has fallen from 170-180 yuan per box to 60-70 yuan per box [3] Group 2: Rise of Domestic Alternatives - Domestic fruits are increasingly replacing imported varieties, with cherries, kiwis, blueberries, and dragon fruits seeing significant domestic production growth [5] - The market share of domestic fruits has risen, with domestic grapes, apples, and plums experiencing notable declines in imported fruit sales [6] - The production of domestic blueberries has surged, with Yunnan contributing one-third of the national output, and the planting area reaching over 140,000 acres [8][12] Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The traditional multi-layered supply chain for fruits has led to inflated retail prices, but new retail models are emerging to shorten this chain and reduce costs [16][18] - The collaboration between retail platforms and producers is improving efficiency and aligning production with market demand [18] - The overall trend indicates a significant transformation in the Chinese fruit market, with high-end fruit prices declining due to advancements in cultivation techniques, scale production, and improved logistics [18]

Group 1 - The trend of domestic fruits replacing imported high-end fruits is rising in China, leading to a decrease in prices for some imported fruits [1][4][10] - The per capita consumption of fresh fruits in China has increased significantly, from 40.5 kg a decade ago to 61.6 kg in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 50% [1] - The price of imported cherries has dropped by 20-30% compared to last year, with blueberries and plums also entering a "affordable era" [4][13] Group 2 - Domestic fruits are increasingly taking market share from imported varieties, with key categories like cherries, kiwis, blueberries, and dragon fruits being replaced by local counterparts [7][8] - The market share of domestic fruits has risen to around 64.1% in 2022, maintaining a stable share of about 60% in recent years [8] - The production of blueberries in China has reached over 140,000 acres, making it the largest producer globally, with Yunnan contributing one-third of the total output [10][16] Group 3 - The supply chain for fruits is evolving, with new retail models reducing the number of intermediaries, thus lowering costs for consumers [18][20] - The traditional model involved multiple layers of intermediaries, leading to inflated retail prices, but new partnerships between producers and retailers are streamlining this process [19][20] - The price of domestic blueberries has significantly decreased, with current prices dropping below 100 yuan per kilogram, compared to over 100 yuan previously [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid sales success of Kashi New Plums, with 1200 pounds sold out in just two days, highlights the growing popularity and market demand for this unique fruit from Kashi County [2][3][12]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The first batch of Kashi New Plums, totaling 1200 pounds, sold out within two days [2][3]. - In a single day, 36,000 pounds of Kashi New Plums were sold through a promotional event on Taobao [12][13]. - The fruit has gained significant traction in major markets such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan, becoming a seasonal favorite [4][21]. Group 2: Product Quality - Kashi New Plums are characterized by their large size, with individual fruits weighing over 25 grams, and a high sugar content of 24% [8][9]. - The plums have received positive feedback for their smooth texture and rich flavor, with a color grading of 80% [7][8]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Strategy - Kashi County is actively promoting its agricultural products through initiatives like "Xinjiang Products Southbound, Guangdong Products Northbound," which has led to the establishment of a national modern agricultural industrial park [21][22]. - By 2025, Kashi County aims to cultivate 570,000 acres of New Plums, accounting for 50% of the national planting area and 70% of the production volume, positioning itself as the largest production and sales base for New Plums in China [24][25]. Group 4: Brand Promotion - Kashi New Plums have been featured in promotional events and advertisements in major cities, including Guangzhou and Foshan, enhancing brand visibility [27][29]. - The brand is set to expand its presence in public transport advertising, further solidifying its market position in the Bay Area [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the arrival of early - maturing apples has impacted the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed has slightly slowed down. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the transaction price has slightly declined. Overall, the low inventory of old apples still supports the price, but the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support level for the Apple 2510 contract is around 7,900 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is around 8,200 yuan/ton [7]. - It is recommended to trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should pay attention to the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted this week, with a weekly drop of 1.15% [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase. Cold - storage inventory is decreasing, but the arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic and has slightly declined. The low inventory of old apples supports the price, but the increase in Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support and resistance levels for the Apple 2510 contract are 7,900 yuan/ton and 8,200 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should focus on the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 fluctuated and declined, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. As of the end of the week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 0 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan/jin [20]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. The arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have all decreased [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin. As of August 15, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.48 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the average wholesale price of apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. In July 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [29][33][37][40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [41]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [43].

Company Overview - Meishan Hongle Fruit Packaging Co., Ltd. has been recently established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Yang Chengtao [1] Business Scope - The company operates in various sectors including packaging services, fruit cultivation, fresh fruit retail and wholesale, edible agricultural product wholesale, and initial processing of edible agricultural products [1] - Additional activities include low-temperature storage (excluding hazardous chemicals), fertilizer sales, plastic products sales, manufacturing of plastic packaging boxes and containers, non-residential real estate leasing, paper products manufacturing, and sales of paper products [1] - The company is authorized to conduct business activities independently based on its business license, except for projects that require approval by law [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 08 月 21 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 110.29 | 110.23 | 0.06 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 6.93 | 6.88 | 0.05 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...