Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][3] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2: Price Index Trends - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index rose to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market price levels [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum and coal industries, while the black metal smelting and processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Industry Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the overall manufacturing sector, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, showing improved sentiment [4] - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, with equipment manufacturing showing particularly strong activity with production and new orders indices above 53.0 [4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.1%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index increased to 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this increase, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core viewpoint indicates that the economy remains resilient, with signs of improvement in core CPI stability and marginal PMI recovery due to ongoing "stabilization growth" measures [2] - In May, the CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -2.7% to -3.3%. The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.0% to 49.5% [5][6] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from the previous month, while M2 growth slowed to 7.9% [2][17][20] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The May CPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [5] - The decline in energy prices negatively impacted non-food items, but travel service prices saw a significant rebound, supporting the core CPI [5] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 3.3% was below market expectations, with traditional industry prices mostly declining while new momentum industries saw price increases [6] - Factors affecting PPI include falling international oil prices, seasonal declines in energy and raw material prices, and the impact of consumption and equipment renewal policies [6] Group 4: PMI Developments - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment, driven by tariff delays and proactive macro policies [9] - The production index rose to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [9] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in May decreased to 3.7%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [13] - High-tech industry investments showed strong growth, particularly in information services and aerospace manufacturing [13] Group 6: Credit and M2 Analysis - In May, new credit issuance was 620 billion, reflecting a decrease in consumer loans and a recovery in corporate short-term loans [17] - M2 growth slowed to 7.9%, influenced by a decrease in deposit attractiveness and slower fiscal fund release [20]

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's economic indicators are operating within a reasonable range despite external shocks and internal challenges, supported by proactive macro policies [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release May's macroeconomic data on June 16, indicating stable economic growth with manufacturing playing a crucial role [1] Manufacturing Sector - In May, manufacturing sales accounted for 30.1% of total sales by enterprises, with equipment manufacturing sales increasing by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Specific sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication equipment saw sales growth of 15.1%, 13.1%, and 8.6% respectively [1] High-Tech Industry - The high-tech industry experienced a year-on-year sales increase of 15% in May, continuing its rapid growth trend [1] - The core digital economy sector's sales rose by 11.2%, with digital technology procurement increasing by 10.9% [1] - Sales of industrial robots and special operation robots grew by 13.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] Private Sector Performance - Policies supporting the private economy have led to improved performance, with private enterprise sales growth outpacing the national average by 0.9 percentage points, reaching 72.3% of total sales [2] - Private manufacturing and high-tech enterprises also showed sales growth rates higher than their national counterparts by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively [2] Economic Sentiment and Forecasts - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Research institutions predict an overall improvement in domestic economic sentiment due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The economic recovery is expected to continue, with fixed asset investment growth remaining stable, particularly in manufacturing and broad infrastructure [3][4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite improvements, the real estate sector continues to decline, and uncertainties remain regarding future trade negotiations [4] - The overall economic growth is projected to maintain around 5% for the second quarter, but further policy measures may be necessary to achieve annual development goals [4]

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 5月份"CPI-PPI"同比剪刀差扩大，反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧，但企业数据也反映部分行业供需关系有所改善，结构性特征更加明显，如宾馆住宿价 格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为，5月CPI环比由涨转降，持平于历史同期平均水平，而从PPI来看，输入性价格下行压力依然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来，CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%，环比看，5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累CPI同比和环比表现的主要因素。从同比看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分 点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点。从环比看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 而对CPI形成支撑的因素则是提振消费相关政策持续显效。同比看，扣除能源的 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May indicates a slight recovery in China's manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, with the composite PMI output index at 50.4%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index rose to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activities, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs are at 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively [3] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.7%, returning to expansion, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 47.5%, and small enterprises at 49.3% [3] Trade and Export - New export orders index and import index improved to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The recent China-US Geneva trade talks have positively impacted manufacturing exports, leading to a slowdown in the decline of new export orders [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, although it decreased by 0.1 percentage points [5] - The construction industry index is at 51%, while the service industry index is at 50.2%, showing mixed performance [5][6] - The information service sector continues to thrive, with business activity indices in various service sectors remaining above 55.0%, indicating strong growth [6][7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the government should enhance economic stabilization policies and promote domestic demand while maintaining high-level openness to external markets [4] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, reflecting optimism among construction enterprises [6]