2025 年 11 月 30 日 渐行渐近：转债到期和时间价值衰 减压力分析 ——转债凸性与定价系列报告之四 ⚫ （1）剩余期限已缩短至 2.5 年附近，金融、消费转债"老龄化"严重 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 - ⚫ 随着时间自然流失，转债市场剩余期限天然存在缩短趋势，而新券发行是改善转债剩余期 限的核心手段，2024 年以来随着转债新发大幅放缓，转债剩余期限明显缩短。截止到 2025/11/21，转债加权剩余期限仅为 2.53 年左右，剩余期限在 2 年以内的转债余额占 比已逼近 40%。参照历史数据来看，如果转债发行短期不明显放量，每自 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20251130 权益 ETF 系列： 反抽还是反弹？多一点时 间上的耐心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 基金配置建议： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《流动性与科技双驱动的资本市场— —2026 年度展望：大类资产》 2025-11-28 《俄乌"28 点"停火协议：和平之路 依旧漫长》 2025-11-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ A 股市场行情概述：（2025.11.24-2025.11.28） ◼ 主要宽基指数涨跌幅：排名前三名的宽基指数分别为：科创 100 （4.48%），创业板指（4.22%），万得微盘股日频等权指数（3.77%）； 排名后三名的宽基指数分别为：北证 50（0.12%），红利指数（0.16%）， 中证红利（0.34%）。 ◼ 风格指数涨跌幅：排名前三名的 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

（1）上周新股次新板块出现反弹；假设以 2024 年以来上市的新股次新板块比较 来看，期间板块平均涨幅 3.5%，实现正收益占比约 91.4%。 2025 年 11 月 30 日 策略类●证券研究报告 （2）在此前交易周新股次新二级交投触及短线冰点之后，上周板块交投意愿回升 或是应有之义；但需要注意的，从涨幅居前的新股次新标的来看，可能主题和行业 线索相对散乱，不排除此前交易周剧烈休整之后资金博弈反弹或占据主因，当前市 场共识可能尚未形成。而回到当前新股周期指标，正如我们上一期周报所述，新股 定价指标和部分情绪指标可能尚未阶段性见底，短线情绪遇冷之后出现的反弹可能 暂时难以驱动本轮休整周期变盘。因此，短期来看，虽然本轮休整周期自 9 月以来 持续时间已经足够，我们依然倾向于认为当前可能仍处于休整周期尾端，新一轮活 跃周期开启或需等待更多的周期指标共振回到阶段性低位、又或是更加强有力的外 部催化形成，总体还是建议保持适度谨慎；但与此同时，考虑到本轮休整周期已经 较长，对于休整相对充分且具备一定稀缺性的局部新股次新标的，或可加大跟踪， 灵活阶段性博弈或适度提前布局。 （3）具体方向上，略微拉长，一方面，资金长期聚 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Index Component Adjustment Impact Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to measure the impact of index component adjustments on stock prices, considering the scale of passive products tracking the index and the average trading volume of the stocks[7][8][9]. - **Detailed Construction Process**: - The model calculates the impact of index adjustments using the following formula: $$ \mathrm{effect}_{s} = \frac{\sum_{i}^{m} wt_{in} * index_{-}scale_{i} - \sum_{i}^{n} wt_{out} * index_{-}scale_{i}}{avg_{-}amt_{s}} $$ where: - \( wt_{in} \) represents the buy weight of the stock in the index - \( wt_{out} \) represents the sell weight of the stock in the index - \( index_{-}scale_{i} \) represents the total scale of passive products tracking the index - \( avg_{-}amt_{s} \) represents the average daily trading volume of the stock over the past two weeks[7][8][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively quantifies the potential trading impact on stocks due to index adjustments, providing valuable insights for identifying trading opportunities[7][8][9]. Model Backtesting Results - **Index Component Adjustment Impact Model**: - **Net Buy Scale**: - Shenghong Technology: 48.65 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision: 47.91 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology: 34.87 billion CNY[10] - **Impact Coefficient**: - Shenghong Technology: 0.57[10] - Dongshan Precision: 1.31[10] - Guangqi Technology: 3.37[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Impact Coefficient - **Factor Construction Idea**: The impact coefficient measures the potential impact on a stock's price due to changes in its index weight, considering the net adjustment scale and the stock's average trading volume[9][10][11]. - **Detailed Construction Process**: - The impact coefficient is calculated using the formula: $$ \text{Impact Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Net Adjustment Scale}}{\text{Average Daily Trading Volume}} $$ where: - Net Adjustment Scale is the net buy or sell scale of the stock due to index adjustments - Average Daily Trading Volume is the stock's average trading volume over the past two weeks[9][10][11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The impact coefficient provides a clear measure of the potential price impact on stocks due to index adjustments, helping investors identify stocks that may experience significant price movements[9][10][11]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Impact Coefficient**: - **Stocks with Impact Coefficient > 2**: - Tower Group: 8.69[12] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical: 8.44[12] - Shanxi Drum Power: 6.99[12] - **Stocks with Impact Coefficient < -2**: - Deep Expressway: -15.65[14] - Wanhe Electric: -13.30[14] - Tianyoude Wine: -10.52[14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The electronic industry index experienced a weekly increase of 6.17%, with consumer electronics rising by 8%, semiconductors by 5.4%, and optical electronics by 3.4% [3] - The release of Google's Gemini 3.0 has strengthened the narrative around TPU, leading to increased market interest in domestic companies like Moer Thread and Muxi, which are set to enter the capital market [5] - The storage sector is entering a "super cycle," with supply shortages and price increases expected to continue until 2026, as indicated by Micron's HBM3E and HBM4 products being fully sold out for next year [6] Market Review - The macroeconomic risks in the U.S. have eased, leading to a recovery in global tech indices, with the Nasdaq index rising by 5% this week [4] - Major tech stocks such as Google and Tesla saw significant gains, with Google up 6.8% and Tesla up 10% [4] Industry Updates - AI glasses are entering a period of intensive new product releases, with several companies, including Quark and Ideal Auto, set to launch their AI glasses soon [4] - The demand for advanced process nodes, particularly 2nm, is outpacing supply, prompting companies like TSMC and Samsung to expand their production capabilities [6] Investment Recommendations - The AI edge and semiconductor equipment sectors are expected to become key themes in the tech industry, with recommended beneficiaries including GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, and Changxin Memory [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for December 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The report identifies several companies within the technology sector that are expected to perform well, including Zhaoyi Innovation, Dongshan Precision, Fourth Paradigm, Tax Friend, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huafeng Technology, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World [12][14][15][16][19]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Zhaoyi Innovation**: The company is in a price increase cycle for storage products, with NOR Flash expanding its market share and SLC NAND Flash improving its process technology. The revenue is expected to continue growing as it captures high-end markets [14]. - **Dongshan Precision**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology, with increased demand for data servers. It has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its position in optical communication and PCB sectors [14]. Computer - **Fourth Paradigm**: The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI across various industries. Its core product, the AI platform, is experiencing rapid revenue growth, and it holds a leading market share in machine learning platforms in China [15]. - **Tax Friend**: As a leader in financial and tax information technology, the company is leveraging AI to enhance its service offerings, which is expected to drive significant growth in high-value business segments [16]. Communication - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: The company is a leader in optical modules, with strong R&D capabilities and a robust overseas production capacity. It is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [16]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI computing power, with expectations of profit growth in the coming years [17]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: The company has a rich product pipeline and is expected to see growth from new game launches and collaborations. Its investments in AI gaming applications are also anticipated to drive future revenue [19]. - **Perfect World**: The company is focusing on developing new games and hosting major esports events, which are expected to contribute to its growth trajectory [19].

2025 年 11 月 30 日 北证指数调整名单出炉,开发科 戈碧迦、万通液压 12 月中旬调 -北交所策略周报（20251124-20251130） 本周策略观点: 本周市场行情: 北交所新股: 制 三板可 3 本周新挂牌 8 家，摘牌 71 家，周新增计划融资 0.70 亿元，完成融资 0.45 亿元。 风险指示: 个股业绩季度波动过大风险,宏观经济下行的风险。 相关研究 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周北证 50 上涨 0.75%，成交额环比下降 25.68%。本周上证指数反弹,但北证相对废 ● 弱。1) 从行业结构来看,本周科技板块回暖, AI、卫星、机器人、固态等均有表现, 但 全市场成交量萎缩。在资金"缩圈"的背景下，北证的联动性减弱；2）北证本周卫星互 联网产业链（天润科技+24.85%、星图测控+10.37%、创远信科 6.98%等）、AI 端侧（则 成电子+10.25%、雷神科技+7.46%）表现较强。 北证 50 指数与北证专精特新指数 12 月调整方案公布。1) 本次成份股调整将于 12 月 ...

AI需求风暴引发的缺货涨价潮蔓延至印刷电路板(PCB)产业链上游。CCL(覆铜板)、电子铜箔、电子布 等高端原材料掀起供不应求声浪，进一步支撑产品价格提涨。 值得关注的是，相关产能扩充速度有被市场需求碾压之势。针对缺货现状，业内某上市公司高管向智通 财经记者表示，高端产品的需求太消耗产能了。AI的需求增长太快，而短期之内产能出不来。 上游的价格及供应情况"变化"使下游成本端承压，鹏鼎控股(002938.SZ)、崇达技术(002815.SZ)等厂商 通过技术革新、优化产品结构等方式降低影响。 AI推升行业景气度 上游高端基材货缺价涨 对于当前PCB市场供需行情，产业链人士告诉智通财经记者，"低端产品还未缺货，AI相关的缺。" 一位电子铜箔从业者称，部分公司产品采用"铜价+加工费"的定价模式，下游需求旺盛会推涨加工费。 智通财经记者从近期举办的第十六届中国电子铜箔技术研讨会上获悉，目前铜箔市场形势开始回暖，企 业的开工率明显增加，大厂基本处于满产状态，铜箔加工费开始缓慢回升。 "行业当前的核心矛盾是'低端过剩、高端不足'。"诺德股份(600110.SH)研究院院长丁瑜在接受智通财经 记者采访时表示，未来竞争将是" ...

2025 年 11 月 30 日 总量研究 量能决定短期反弹高度 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251130 本周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28，下同）A 股市场震荡反弹，创业板指领涨主要 宽基指数。量能表现方面，本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩，当前量能状态与市 场反弹表现不匹配，后续反弹力度或受量能压制收窄。资金面方面，本周融资增 加额转正，股票型 ETF 资金延续净流出，资金方面仍有分歧。 结合本周市场反弹高度、量能表现以及资金分歧状态，后市反弹力度或减弱，市 场再度进入震荡区间。中长线仍看好"红利+科技"主线，红利或在波动方面占 优。 本周上证综指上涨 1.40%，上证 50 上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 1.64%，中证 500 上涨 3.14%，中证 1000 上涨 3.77%，创业板指上涨 4.54%，北证 50 指数 上涨 0.75%。 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估值分 位数"危险"等级，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板指处于估值分位 数"适中"等级。 中信一级行业分类来看，煤炭、钢铁、建材、轻工制 ...