Market Overview - In February, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed a divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap growth and Hong Kong tech stocks experiencing significant adjustments[4] - The geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have led to a rise in international gold and oil prices, impacting the cyclical sectors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, particularly industrial metals like copper, precious metals, and energy metals due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions[4] - Emphasis on technology self-reliance and new productivity sectors, particularly AI computing and military industries, is recommended as the market anticipates policy support[4] Key Stock Recommendations - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 3.37 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 32.66 in 2024 to 11.70 in 2026, indicating strong growth potential[6] - New Fengming (603225.SH) is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with an EPS forecast of 0.99 yuan in 2026 and a PE ratio of 21.44[21] - Baosteel (600019.SH) is highlighted for its significant market share in high-end products, with an EPS of 0.55 yuan in 2026 and a PE ratio of 13.29[30] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for Zijin Mining is expected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 423.24 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 89.51 billion yuan during the same period[19] - New Fengming's revenue is projected to increase from 67.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 73.29 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit growth from 11 billion yuan to 15.16 billion yuan[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting market stability[4]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant developments in the global expansion of various companies, focusing on their growth metrics, market strategies, and challenges faced in international markets [2][3]. Group 1: SHEIN's Growth in the EU - SHEIN reported a monthly active user count of 156 million in the EU, marking an increase of over 10 million users, with a growth rate of 6.9% compared to the previous period [5][6]. - France leads in user distribution with 28.2 million, followed by Spain (27.3 million) and Italy (25 million), while Germany remains the largest revenue contributor [5]. - The overall growth rate has slowed from 11.6% to 6.9%, indicating potential market saturation or increased competition [6]. Group 2: Middle East Tensions Impacting E-commerce - Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, delivery times for e-commerce platforms like Temu and Amazon have significantly increased, with Temu's delivery time extending from 15 to 20 days [7]. - The region's online retail sales have been growing at an annual rate of approximately 11%, with projections estimating the market size to reach $57 billion by 2026 [7]. Group 3: BYD's Success in Brazil - BYD's Dolphin Mini became the best-selling vehicle in Brazil in February 2026, with sales of 4,100 units, marking the first time an electric vehicle topped monthly retail sales [11]. - BYD aims to become the leading brand in Brazil's light passenger vehicle market by 2030, having sold over 170,000 electric and hybrid models since entering the market [12]. Group 4: Tencent Cloud's Expansion in Europe - Tencent Cloud announced the addition of a third availability zone in Frankfurt, Germany, set to open in Q2 2026, enhancing its digital infrastructure in Europe [14][15]. - The company has experienced double-digit growth in international business for three consecutive years, with plans to double its overseas customer base by 2025 [14]. Group 5: Tuya Smart's Developer Growth - Tuya Smart reported a total revenue of $321.8 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8% [16]. - The number of registered developers exceeded 1.8 million, reflecting a growth of 36.8% compared to the previous year [16]. Group 6: CATL and Rio Tinto Collaboration - CATL signed a memorandum of understanding with Rio Tinto to collaborate on electrification strategies, supply chain sustainability, and circular economy practices [19][20]. - The partnership aims to leverage CATL's battery technology to enhance Rio Tinto's mining operations and explore sustainable resource development [20]. Group 7: Jasmine Milk's Expansion in Singapore - Jasmine Milk opened its first store in Singapore, marking its entry into Southeast Asia, with plans for further expansion in the region [21][22]. - The brand focuses on direct sales and high-quality products rather than franchise models, aiming for deep localization in core markets [22]. Group 8: Meta's Privacy Concerns - Meta's smart glasses have been reported to pose privacy risks, as user interactions with AI may be reviewed by third-party data annotators [26]. - The company stated that users are informed about data usage in their service terms, but concerns about user awareness and consent remain [26]. Group 9: Apple's Collaboration with Google - Apple plans to utilize Google's data centers to run a new version of Siri powered by the Gemini model, indicating a deepening partnership in AI [28]. - The new Siri is expected to launch later this year, with Apple relying on Google's infrastructure to handle increased AI usage demands [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the capital market in supporting technological innovation and industrial transformation in China, highlighting a "dual-driven" model between capital markets and new productive forces during the 14th National People's Congress [3]. Group 1: Capital Market Support for Innovation - The capital market provides essential funding for technology research and equipment upgrades, facilitating the integration of technological innovation into high-quality industrial ecosystems [6]. - Companies like iFlytek leverage capital market platforms to overcome core technology bottlenecks, enabling significant investments in AI and smart voice technology [6]. - The capital market acts as a crucial lever for innovation, allowing companies to focus on long-term strategies and sustainable growth through consistent funding [7]. Group 2: R&D Investment and Financial Performance - iFlytek maintains a high R&D investment ratio of around 20% of its revenue, achieving significant sales and cash flow, with total sales exceeding 27 billion yuan and net cash flow from operating activities over 3 billion yuan [7]. - Xiangjia Co. has conducted multiple cash dividends since its listing, totaling over 7.8 billion yuan, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns even amid industry challenges [7]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on R&D and technology upgrades to transform new productive forces into core competitive advantages, as seen in the case of Defang Nano and its innovative production methods [8]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Innovations - MaiPu Medical, as the first company to list on the Growth Enterprise Market under the second set of standards, is pioneering domestic products in neurosurgery, breaking import monopolies [9]. - Ruike Laser is developing a three-tier innovation system to tackle key technologies, including high-power fiber lasers, while integrating AI into its R&D and manufacturing processes [9].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, copper production decreased by 14% year-on-year to 170,000 tons, primarily due to expected lower ore grades at the Quellaveco mine [2] - Iron ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year to 15.1 million tons, driven by improved output from the Kumba mine [3] - Manganese ore production in Q4 2025 rose by 22% year-on-year to 909,000 tons, reflecting a strong operational performance [4] - Diamond production in Q4 2025 fell by 35% year-on-year to 3.8 million carats, mainly due to maintenance shutdowns at the Jwaneng and Orapa mines [5] - Coking coal production in Q4 2025 decreased by 15% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons, impacted by the sale of a minority stake in the Jellinbah project and adverse weather conditions [6] - Nickel production in Q4 2025 increased by 3% year-on-year to 10,300 tons, benefiting from improved grades and recovery rates [6] Production Guidance Summary - For 2026, copper production guidance has been revised to 700,000-760,000 tons from the previous 760,000-820,000 tons, with Chilean production expected to be 390,000-420,000 tons [9] - Iron ore production guidance for 2026 has been raised to 55-59 million tons, reflecting strong operational performance and stable ore supply [13] - Diamond production guidance for 2026 has been adjusted to 21-26 million carats, down from 26-29 million carats due to a challenging trading environment [16] - Coking coal business is being divested, with a transaction expected to be finalized in 2026 [17] - Nickel business is in the process of being sold, with final agreements signed and awaiting regulatory approval [18]

Report Title - Iron Ore Weekly Report [1] Report Date - March 8, 2026 [2] Report Analyst - Li Yafei, Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - The transportation cost has increased, leading to a slight rebound in iron ore prices. The iron ore supply and demand are loose. The previous 05 contract fell to the cost support of around $90/ton, and further decline requires the falsification of steel demand, which has not occurred yet. Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, the energy cost has increased significantly, driving the expected rebound of ore prices [3][5] Summary by Directory Iron Ore Supply - Global shipments reached 33.407 million tons, a 0.6% increase from last week and a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Australian shipments were 18.797 million tons, a 4.5% decrease from last week and a 2.9% decrease from the same period last year. Brazilian shipments were 7.377 million tons, a 7.4% increase from last week and a 7.3% decrease from the same period last year [4] - The arrivals at 45 ports were 21.469 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from last week and a 19.1% increase from the same period last year [4] - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines is at a high level. The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels. Domestic mines have resumed production after the holiday, and the output has increased [15][20][22][33] Iron Ore Demand - The iron water output was 2.2759 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week and a 1.3% decrease from the same period last year. Due to northern production restrictions, low steel mill profits, and slow iron water resumption, the demand expectation is poor, and the replenishment demand trading is completed. The demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4][34][38][39] - The high - medium grade price spread and the lump - powder price spread have widened. The cost - performance of scrap steel is lower than that of iron water [44][45] Iron Ore Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports was 171.1786 million tons, a 0.2% increase from last week and a 17.4% increase from the same period last year. In the context of weak demand expectations, steel mills are expected to purchase on demand, and Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [4][47][50] Iron Ore Price Spread - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 764 (+13) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 772 (+22) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 23 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 25.5 (+6) yuan/ton. The near - month transportation cost has increased, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended [6][10] Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in freight costs [53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a stable outlook based on current conditions and trends observed in the market [11][12]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with an average profit level of 16.5 yuan per ton and a current loss of 21.4 yuan per ton. The profit rate for steel companies is reported at 38.9% [11][12]. - Iron ore prices have rebounded due to high port inventories and geopolitical events, despite the completion of spring restocking by steel mills. The report notes that iron ore port inventories remain high at 178 million tons [4][11]. - The demand for hot-rolled coils is currently weak, with prices slightly decreasing and social inventories increasing. However, a potential recovery in demand is expected as downstream operations resume [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel mills' iron ore inventory has returned to baseline levels, while steel inventory has risen to levels close to those seen after the spring restocking in 2025. The strength of this year's spring restocking is weaker compared to 2025 [11]. - The average profit level in the industry has decreased, indicating a challenging environment for steel producers [11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have seen a slight decline, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coils at 3320 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous week. Social inventory for hot-rolled coils has increased significantly [12]. - The metallurgical coke prices have remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1570 yuan per ton. However, the overall supply remains high, leading to pressure on prices [13]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The report indicates fluctuations in iron ore prices, with the price index for 66% iron concentrate at 955 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase. The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics [4][13]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production and inventory levels are being monitored closely, with expectations of a slight increase in hot-rolled coil prices due to low inventory levels in downstream markets and seasonal supply constraints [12][13]. - Iron ore shipments and port inventories are being tracked, with a noted high level of 178 million tons at ports, indicating a potential for price adjustments in the future [4][11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record quarterly revenue of $320 million, an increase of $143 million compared to the third quarter [17] - Adjusted EBITDA grew to $186.7 million in the fourth quarter and $409.7 million for the full year [18] - Adjusted net income attributable to owners was $108.4 million for the quarter and $220.4 million for the year, translating to $1.04 and $2.12 per share respectively [18] - Liquidity position at quarter end was $150.4 million, including $105.4 million in cash and cash equivalents [19] - Net debt decreased to approximately $502 million at year-end from $545 million at the end of the third quarter, improving the net debt leverage ratio to 1.2x [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - At CaraÃba, Q4 mill throughput reached nearly 1.2 million tons, up 18% compared to Q3, driving copper production 15% higher quarter-on-quarter [9] - At Tucumã, copper production increased more than 22% quarter-on-quarter, achieving another record for the operation [9] - Xavantina saw a 53% increase in production quarter-on-quarter, with total gold production from Xavantina reaching nearly 20,000 ounces in Q4 [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - C1 cash costs per pound were approximately $2.27 at CaraÃba and $1.75 at Tucumã in Q4, with the increase attributed to transportation costs and accelerated amortization of mill liners [10][17] - Gold C1 cash costs per ounce declined by approximately 29% from the third quarter [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing the Furnas project, which is expected to produce over 1.2 million tons of copper, 2 million ounces of gold, and 9 million ounces of silver over an initial 24-year mine life [5] - Capital spending across existing operations is projected to decline as the company exits a multi-year investment phase [8] - The company plans to complete an additional 50,000 meters of exploration drilling in 2026 to target extensions of high-grade mineralization [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning within the current market environment, highlighting the strong economic outcomes of the Furnas project [4][6] - The operational performance gains achieved in Q4 are expected to be sustained through 2026, with guidance reflecting a consolidated copper production of between 67,500 to 77,500 tons [14] - Management acknowledged challenges due to the rainy season impacting production and sales, particularly at Xavantina [26] Other Important Information - The company is advancing a new shaft project at CaraÃba and investing in ventilation circuits at Xavantina to increase mine capacity and output [14] - The company aims to maintain a strong cash position and target a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 1x before commencing a return of capital program [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on gold concentrate stockpiles at Xavantina - Management indicated that while Q1 is expected to have modest sales due to the rainy season, shipments should ramp up aggressively in Q2 and Q3 [25][26] Question: Update on Tucumã's filter press issue - The filter press has been ordered and is expected to be operational in Q4, but it is not included in the 2026 guidance [30][32] Question: C1 cash cost guidance for Tucumã - Management explained that costs are influenced by lower grades and additional maintenance efforts, with expectations for higher costs due to transportation and TCRC factors [42][46] Question: Benefits from mechanization investments at Xavantina - Management highlighted that mechanization reduces workforce exposure and aims to better match mine output with mill capacity over time [44][48] Question: Potential capital return once net debt to EBITDA is below one times - Management outlined a three-step approach to capital return, focusing on reducing net debt, paying down the revolver, and engaging with shareholders [51][53] Question: Timeline for selling down the gold concentrate stockpile - Management indicated that the timeline for selling the stockpile may extend to mid-2027 due to operational considerations [57][61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is maintained as "Buy" [4][6]. Core Insights - The report expresses optimism regarding Zijin Mining's valuation enhancement, driven by an upward cycle in copper and gold prices, and the company's strong growth potential as a leading player in the copper and gold sectors [1][2]. - The company has achieved impressive operational performance from 2023 to 2025, with net profit expected to grow from 20 billion RMB in 2022 to 51-52 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 155-160% [2][3]. - For the period of 2026-2028, Zijin Mining plans to continue its rapid development, aiming to rank among the top three globally in copper and gold production by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%-16% for gold and 11%-14% for copper [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 51.5 billion RMB in 2025, 80.8 billion RMB in 2026, and 99.5 billion RMB in 2027, with respective growth rates of 60.83% and 23.19% [10][15]. - Revenue is expected to increase significantly, with estimates of 381.04 billion RMB in 2025 and 473.77 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 25.49% and 24.34% respectively [10][15]. Production and Resource Growth - By 2025, Zijin Mining's copper production is expected to grow by 20%, while gold production is anticipated to increase by 61% [2]. - The company aims to achieve a lithium carbonate equivalent production of 27-32 thousand tons by 2028, with a staggering growth rate of 121%-134% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target valuation for Zijin Mining is set at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18-23 times for 2026, corresponding to target prices of 62.40 RMB and 66.03 HKD [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4][6]. Core Insights - The report is optimistic about Zijin Mining's valuation increase, driven by an upward cycle in copper and gold prices, and the company's strong growth potential with expected net profit growth rates of +57% in 2026 and +23% in 2027 [1][2]. - Zijin Mining has achieved impressive operational performance from 2023 to 2025, with net profit projected to grow from 20 billion RMB in 2022 to 51-52 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 155-160% [2][3]. - The company plans to continue its rapid development from 2026 to 2028, aiming to rank among the top three globally in copper and gold production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%-16% for gold and 11%-14% for copper [3][4]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Zijin Mining is 51.5 billion RMB in 2025, 80.8 billion RMB in 2026, and 99.5 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.94 RMB, 3.04 RMB, and 3.74 RMB respectively [10][15]. - The report estimates a revenue increase from 303.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 522.9 billion RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 24.34% in 2026 [10][15]. - The company’s target valuation for 2026 is set at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18-23 times, corresponding to target prices of 62.40 RMB for A-shares and 66.03 HKD for H-shares [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in March, and attention should be paid to the strength of demand. If demand recovery falls short of expectations, prices may decline again. Additionally, potential impacts from the Iran situation should be monitored [6]. - The strategy of going long on rebar and short on hot-rolled coils can be considered, with a stop-profit target of over 200 points [5]. - For single-sided trading, a bullish approach can be attempted with appropriate stop-loss settings [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Review 1.2 Market Review - In February 2026, rebar prices fluctuated downward with a small range, reaching a maximum of 3139 and a minimum of 3005 [10]. - In February, iron ore prices trended downward. The main iron ore contract reached a maximum of 797.0 and a minimum of 736.0 [12][13]. Part 2: Current Analysis 2.1 Macro Logic - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.0%. The recent government work report set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5% [17]. - In the first quarter of 2026, advance issuance of special bonds and implementation of "two new" subsidies (equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) took place. Structural monetary tools were used to cut interest rates and increase new re-lending quotas to support private and innovative enterprises. Domestic demand was restored, with consumption moderately recovering and infrastructure investment accelerating, but the real estate sector was still in a bottoming - out phase. External demand remained resilient, with exports maintaining positive growth on a high base, but the Iran situation might affect exports and drag down the first - quarter economic growth [17]. 2.2 Supply - Demand Logic - **Real Estate**: Real estate is the core demand source for construction steel, accounting for over 60% of construction steel demand and 25% - 30% of the country's total steel demand, and its proportion in total steel demand is decreasing. Since 2021, real estate investment and other indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have entered a downward cycle. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 20.4%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area was - 10.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 18.1%. The leading indicator, land transaction area, decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, indicating a continued decline in steel demand for real estate new construction and main construction in 2026 - 2027 [21][24]. - **Special Bonds**: In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached a record high of about 7.68 trillion yuan, including about 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds and about 3.09 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure, which directly drove the demand for construction steel. In 2026, about 4.6 trillion yuan in new special bonds are expected, and the advance issuance and disbursement of special bonds in the first quarter will provide funds for demand recovery in March [27][31]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: In 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth in recent years, showing a quarterly slowdown. In 2026, with the support of fiscal policies, the disbursement of special bond funds in March will drive the start of steel - using projects and may be the core driving force for a rebound [31]. - **Manufacturing**: In 2025, national manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year, a significant decline from 2024, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of steel demand in machinery, equipment, and home appliances. In 2026, the automotive industry showed structural differentiation, with production expected to rebound in March. The shipbuilding industry maintained high - level prosperity, and the output of excavators and home appliances showed seasonal fluctuations [35][36][37]. - **Steel Exports**: In January 2026, China's steel exports decreased significantly. In February, exports continued to decline, and in March, exports are expected to recover but with limited strength. The Iran situation has a significant indirect impact on steel exports [40]. - **Steel Production**: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In February 2026, steel production decreased significantly, and in March, it is expected to rebound significantly but may be restricted by various factors [41]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: In 2025, China's iron ore imports were 1.259 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In March 2026, iron ore supply is expected to remain at a high level, and port inventories reached a two - year high in February [46]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Production**: In 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In February, the operating rate of northern mines declined, and in March, it is expected to gradually recover, but the production increase is limited [50].