Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On September 12, 2025, for silicon iron, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5250 and 5310 respectively, with no daily change but weekly changes of 50 and 90 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 were 5680, 5600, and 5680 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 50, and 0, and weekly changes of 0, 100, and 0 [2]. Supply - There are data on the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in China, including monthly production and weekly production with a 95% capacity - occupancy ratio [4]. - Data on the production of silicon manganese in China on a weekly basis are also provided [7]. Inventory - For silicon iron, there are data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis [6]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis, as well as data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them [8]. Cost and Profit - Information on the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is provided, which affects the production cost of ferroalloys [6]. - There are data on the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [6][8].

Group 1 - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Hongfa Ferroalloy Co., Ltd., will undergo maintenance and repair of its production equipment, with the expected downtime until the end of the current year [2][3] - The subsidiary currently operates four 12,500 KVA semi-closed electric furnaces, producing 80,000 tons of ferrosilicon alloy annually, but the equipment has aged and efficiency has decreased due to severe oxidation and damage [2] - Recent audited financial data for the subsidiary shows a revenue of 546.28 million yuan, accounting for 7.80% of the company's total revenue, and a net loss of 31.46 million yuan, while the unaudited data for the first half of 2025 indicates a revenue of 127.07 million yuan, representing 2.53% of the total, with a net loss of 38.21 million yuan [3] Group 2 - The impact of the maintenance on the company's overall operations is currently uncertain, as the timeline for resuming production is not yet determined [3] - The company assures that normal operations will continue and that the maintenance will not affect its main business [4]

鉴于上述情况，经公司研究，根据全年生产经营安排，同意待消耗完现有库存原料后进入停炉检修，检 修期预计至本年度末，后期将根据实际检修情况决定是否恢复生产。宏发铁合金恢复生产的时间尚不确 定，对公司的影响尚无法准确估计。 智通财经APP讯，西部黄金(601069.SH)发布公告，公司全资子公司新疆宏发铁合金股份有限公司(简 称"宏发铁合金")现有4台12500KVA半密闭式矿热炉，以混合锰矿、焦炭、硅石、电极糊等其他材料为 原料，年产8万吨锰硅合金。公司现有电炉由于运行时间较长，各部位结构氧化破损严重，设备老化运 转效率较低。 ...

西部黄金公告，全资子公司宏发铁合金现有4台12500KVA半密闭式矿热炉，年产8万吨锰硅合金。因设 备老化运转效率较低，同意待消耗完现有库存原料后进入停炉检修，检修期预计至本年度末。宏发铁合 金最近一年经审计的营业收入5.46亿元，净利润-3146.17万元；最近一期未经审计的营业收入1.27亿 元，净利润-3820.91万元。宏发铁合金恢复生产时间尚不确定，对公司影响尚无法准确估计。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-11 市场情绪谨慎，双焦震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：成本支撑下移，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅1.5%。现货方面，产销数据尚可，期货升 水现货。供需与逻辑：当前厂库高位小幅波动，玻璃供需矛盾依旧存在。短期盘面升水持续压制价格，谨慎对待 节前的价格波动，后期关注玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅0.47%。现货方面，采购情绪谨慎，以刚需 成交为主。供需与逻辑：目前纯碱产量维持在高位波动且伴随四季度新增产能落地；纯碱消费存在进一步走弱预 期。叠加目前盘面升水，进一步压制纯碱价格，后期关注新产能投放和下游需求变化。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观政策、玻璃下游需求、纯碱产量和库存变化等。 双硅：产区利润不佳，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日硅锰主力合约收于5854元/吨。现货方面，河钢某大厂9月硅锰首轮询价5800元/吨，市场处于观望 状态。成本端，天津港锰矿市场报价坚挺，半碳酸价格34-34.5元/吨度，南非高铁29.5 ...

仓单 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 品种 项目 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 | 宁夏#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 主力合约 | 5628 | 8 | 108 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5310 | 0 | 60 | 5660 | 01合约 | 5588 | 10 | 104 | | | 青海#72 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5702 | 20 | 90 | | | 陕西#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 09合约 | 5464 | 30 | 120 | | | 陕西#75 | 5950 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -78 | -38 | -58 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | | 1-5月差 | -114 | -10 | 14 | | 贸易商价 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]

昨日有消息称几内亚政府可能要求矿业公司建设本土冶炼厂，此举或影响西芒杜铁矿的发运预期，推动铁矿盘面大幅上涨，但目前事件仍存在较大不确定性。从交 易逻辑看，市场更倾向于解读为阅兵结束后钢厂复产补库，叠加本期巴西矿发运量下降，情绪面助推价格上行，当前铁水产量预计仍将快速回升至高位，而成材端 仍处于超季节性去库阶段，这种状态下应该收缩利润压供给，但旺季需求尚未被证伪，成材价格继续向下有阻碍，在这个维度下原料借机向上挤压利润。目前成材 仍受超季节性累库压制，盘面上行乏力。打破僵局需等待两类信号，一是旺季需求实质性改善，能够承接高供给并带动去库；二是供给端出现实际收缩，形成成本 强支撑。目前两者均未明朗，反内卷情绪也有所降温，预计近期盘面或仍呈现震荡偏弱，等待旺季需求验证。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3109 | 3123 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -47 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and operation suggestions [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Judgment**: Downstream construction restart expectations support raw material valuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][4][5] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 501,397 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 688.0 yuan/ton, while the price of PB (61.5%) decreased by 3.0 yuan to 782.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Judgment**: Affected by market sentiment, both show a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) for rebar and 1 (slightly strong) for hot-rolled coils [2][8][9] - **Fundamental Data**: The rebar futures contract RB2510 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.79%, and the open interest decreased by 51,071 lots. The hot-rolled coil futures contract HC2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 1.39%, and the open interest decreased by 29,686 lots. Spot prices generally increased slightly [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month. The export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative export of steel was 67.983 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Judgment**: Market anti-involution information has heated up again, both showing a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 1 (slightly strong) [2][13][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5,598 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, and the silicomanganese 2511 contract closed at 5,830 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple steel mills have determined ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices and quantities. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi-carbonate lump ore and Australian lump ore in October 2025, both up 0.05 US dollars/ton-degree from the previous month. As of September 5, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.48 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous month [14][17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Judgment**: Expectations are fluctuating, showing a wide-range volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) [2][18][19] - **Fundamental Data**: The coking coal futures contract JM2601 closed at 1,094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan or 1.0%, and the coke futures contract J2601 closed at 1,581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [19] Logs - **Market Judgment**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][21][24] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed different degrees of decline. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [24]