1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Overall Black Market - The black market is expected to experience low - level consolidation. The market has weak drivers, and weak demand exerts pressure on prices. The impact of winter storage on prices has significantly decreased, and the macro - market provides no trend guidance [12]. 2.2 Coal and Coke - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month - on - month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing completion. The upward drive for coal prices is weak. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [14]. 2.3 Ferroalloys - Currently, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the market sentiment is cautious. The ferroalloys continue to have a supply - demand pattern with a slight surplus. The high inventory pressure of ferromanganese and the increasing inventory pressure of ferrosilicon suppress alloy prices. The cost support for ferromanganese has weakened, while that for ferrosilicon is still acceptable. Overall, the alloy fundamentals lack effective drivers, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From January 16th to January 23rd, the futures prices of most varieties, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., decreased. The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and ferromanganese also decreased. The futures price of coke increased slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price decreased. The futures price of ferrosilicon increased, and the spot price also increased slightly. The price of scrap steel decreased slightly [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market is in the winter storage period, but traders' willingness to store is low. The market has weak drivers and weak demand, and prices will be in a low - level consolidation [12]. - **Coal and Coke**: The supply is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is nearing completion. The upward drive for prices is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand pattern is slightly in surplus, inventory pressure is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 199.55 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. The apparent demand was 185.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. The total inventory was 452.10 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing showed different changes [20][28][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the production was 305.41 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.23 tons. The apparent demand was 309.96 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.40 tons. The total inventory was 357.78 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.55 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.27 tons. The basis in Shanghai showed different changes [33][39][49]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory last week was 939.16 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.99 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 71.34 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 2867.88 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 26.38 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 399.77 tons [59][68]. - **Production and Utilization Rate**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 66 yuan last week. The capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, and the daily coke output was 63.3 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.0 tons, and the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons [77][78]. - **Price Ratio and Basis**: The price ratios of coke to coking coal in different months showed different changes. The basis of coke and coking coal in different months also showed different trends [81][84][88]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: On January 23rd, the price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased, the price of ferromanganese decreased, and the price of ferrosilicon increased [101]. - **Inventory**: On January 23rd, the total port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises increased [104][114]. - **Production and Demand**: The production of ferromanganese increased slightly, while the production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly. The demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week [107][109][111].

| | | | | | 铁合金早报 | | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | | 盘面 | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5300 | 50 | -20 | 5600 | 主力合约 | 5652 | 42 | 82 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5330 | 30 | 10 | 5680 | 01合约 | 5776 | 32 | #N/A | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5300 | 50 | 0 | 5630 | 05合约 | 5626 | 40 | 60 | | | 陕西#72 | 5300 | 0 | 0 | 5600 | 09合约 | 5690 | 34 | 54 | | | 陕西#75 | 5850 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -52 | 8 | -102 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The valuation of ferroalloys is low and there is a need for repair. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [1][5] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to shrink, the demand has support, and the cost has an upward adjustment expectation. For silicomanganese, the supply is stable, the demand has support, and the cost of manganese ore and electricity price has support [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: The start - up rate and output of sample enterprises continue to decline. Due to the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of future supply contraction. Steel production is stable, and future hot metal production is expected to rise slightly, supporting raw material demand. Some regions' electricity prices have an upward adjustment expectation. Short - term supply - demand improves marginally, and the valuation is not high, so it is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] - **Silicomanganese**: The start - up rate and output have a slight rebound, but the profit is not good, and the upward trend is difficult to form. There are some new production capacities put into operation, and the supply is generally stable. Similar to ferrosilicon, the demand has support, the port manganese ore inventory is at a low level, the spot price is firm, and the overseas mining company's February manganese ore US dollar quotation continues to rise slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, and the alloy valuation is not high. It is expected to be volatile and bullish this week. Hold the previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell put options on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the report 3. Weekly Data Tracking Supply - demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types is 1.87 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 11.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons [11] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 9.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 36.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; the weekly supply of silicomanganese (99%) is 19.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 16th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 6.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 37.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [13] Spot Price - Basis - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferroalloy Enterprise Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Steel Mill Production Situation - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Silicomanganese Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of silicomanganese vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5868 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 188 yuan/ton [35] Cost Manganese Ore Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Cost - Profit - The production cost and profit of ferrosilicon vary by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5452 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 152 yuan/ton [45] Cost Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Hebei Representative Steel Mill's Bidding Price for Double Silicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Monthly Output of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Ferrosilicon Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Not summarized due to only graphical information provided

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 9.25 thousand tons to 1.9955 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 254.2 thousand tons [2] - Social inventory rose by 77.1 thousand tons to 3.0312 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 433.7 thousand tons [2] - The overall rebar demand is strong externally but weak internally, with significant growth in overseas demand compensating for domestic shortfalls [2] Hot Rolled Steel - National hot rolled steel production decreased by 2.95 thousand tons to 3.0541 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 172.3 thousand tons [3] - Social inventory fell by 4.66 thousand tons to 2.8114 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 241.8 thousand tons [3] - Domestic demand for hot rolled steel is average, and overseas demand has declined [4] Iron Ore - Iron water production slightly increased by 0.09 thousand tons to 228.1 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability rising by 0.86% to 40.69% [5][18] - Global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, with Australian shipments at 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port and steel mill inventories continue to accumulate, with increases of 2.08 million tons and 1.27 million tons respectively [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for low-sulfur coal, while medium-sulfur coal prices increased by 100 yuan/ton [21] - Coking enterprises are experiencing production losses, with an average loss of 70 yuan/ton, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [20] - The overall demand for coke remains weak, with a slight increase in steel mill utilization rates [20] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index rose by 0.6 yuan/ton to 2198.6 yuan/ton [22] - Scrap steel demand has decreased, with daily consumption falling by 0.47 thousand tons to 50.8 thousand tons [22][23] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, with electricity costs turning from profit to loss [22][23] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production slightly increased by 0.29% to 191.1 thousand tons, with demand supported by steel mills' final bidding before the holiday [24] - Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3% to 98.4 thousand tons, remaining at a five-year low [25] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 22 thousand tons [24]

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：成本预期上移，价格重心震荡抬升 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | | 锰硅 | | （内蒙古） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量 | （周） | 9 . | 84 | -0 . | 30% | -8 . | 80% | | 19 . | 32 | | 0 . | 29% | -4 . | 05% | | | 进口数量 | ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron lack a clear trend and will continue to fluctuate. The market is waiting for a driving force to move upwards [1][77]. - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to continue in a bullish direction, but the current market focus is on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black metal sector currently lacks capital interest [16][95]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese - silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is generally balanced and has marginal improvement [16][95]. - The future market trends of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron will be influenced by the direction of the black metal sector and market sentiment, as well as cost increases from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and supply contractions (or contraction expectations) due to losses or the "dual carbon" policy in the silicon - iron segment [16][95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the manganese - silicon futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton or - 0.07%. Technically, it lacks a clear trend and is in a consolidation phase. Pay attention to the resistance at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support at 5800 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton [13]. - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [15][21]. - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [15][26]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [15][31]. - The weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year [15][45]. - The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [15][59]. - The estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [15][70]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [21]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25][26]. - As of January 23, 2026, South African ore was reported at 36.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Australian ore at 41.6 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.4 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Gabonese ore at 42.7 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.6 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [28]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [31]. - In December, the manganese ore import volume was 327.4 tons, up 58 tons month - on - month and up 72.3 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 3284.2 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 356 tons or 12.17% [34]. - As of January 16, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reporting 421.8 tons, up 4.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total Australian manganese ore port inventory was 71.1 tons, up 2.0 tons week - on - week, and the total high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 129.2 tons, up 5.1 tons week - on - week [37][40]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, the output of manganese - silicon was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [45]. - The Hebei Steel Group's manganese - silicon tender volume in January 2026 was 17000 tons, up 2300 tons month - on - month; the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese - silicon was 11.68 tons, up 0.11 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [59][62]. - In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [62]. - As of January 23, 2026, the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.86 pct week - on - week to 40.69%, showing a recovery [63]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises in the Steel Union's statistics was 37.3 tons, up 0.02 tons week - on - week [73]. - In December, the average available days of manganese - silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [76]. 3.2 Silicon - Iron Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the silicon - iron futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan/ton or + 1.37%. Technically, it lacks a clear short - term trend. Pay attention to the resistance at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5500 yuan/ton and 5450 yuan/ton [91]. - The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41% [92]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50% [92]. - The estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [93][139]. - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [94][100]. - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][104]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][111]. - The weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period [94][116]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [104]. - As of January 23, 2026, the silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the semi - coke small material price was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [108]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output of silicon - iron was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [116]. - The Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon - iron alloy tender volume in January 2026 was 3313 tons, up 563 tons month - on - month and up 1130 tons year - on - year. The tender price in January was 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - As of January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [125]. - The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41%. As of January 23, 2026, the magnesium metal price in Fugu area was 16250 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [128]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50%. As of January 23, 2026, the estimated export profit of silicon - iron was - 91 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period [131]. - The cumulative overseas crude steel output from January to November 2025 was 767 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 170 tons or 0.22% [132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [139]. - In December, the average available days of silicon - iron in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month. The raw material inventory of steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Spot demand weakens seasonally, focus on basis opportunities. Steel prices are expected to have support at low levels, and hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can be rolled. Trade with a unilateral range-bound mindset, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Prices rebound with market sentiment. Supply is high and demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a decline is high. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][4][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The sector fluctuates. Spot prices are weak, and the market trades for a reasonable valuation. Wait for a rally to short on the futures market, and cash in on the spot market when appropriate [5][7] - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly volatile. The accident at the steel mill may affect iron ore demand, and there is pressure on the upside. Wait for a rebound to enter short positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 22, for far-month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.25%); HC2610 closed at 3302.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan (0.15%); J2609 closed at 1758.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 10.00 yuan (0.57%); JM2609 closed at 1203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 9.00 yuan (0.75%). For near-month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3124.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.35%); HC2605 closed at 3287.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.24%); J2605 closed at 1688.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 14.00 yuan (0.84%); JM2605 closed at 1131.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (1.07%) [1] - **Inter-month Spreads**: On January 22, RB2605 - 2610 was -45.00 yuan/ton with no change; HC2605 - 2610 was -15.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 4.00 yuan; 12605 - 2609 was 17.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 0.50 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was -70.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was -71.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.50 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On January 22, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread was 163.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 6.00 yuan; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.97 with no change; the coal - coke ratio was 1.49 with no change; the rebar paper profit was -75.48 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.63 yuan; the coking paper profit was 183.11 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.18 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On January 22, Shanghai rebar was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tianjin rebar was 3140.00 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 103.45 with a gain of 0.25. Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3340.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; the billet - steel product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with no change; Rizhao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Other Products**: On January 22, Qingdao Port Super Special Powder was 668.00 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimaodu Coking Coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On January 22, the HC main contract basis was 3.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 39.00 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 136.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 7.00 yuan; the main contract basis was 20.00 yuan/ton with no change; the J main contract basis was -115.37 yuan/ton with a loss of 4.50 yuan; the JM main contract basis was 133.50 yuan/ton with a loss of 2.50 yuan [1]

黑色建材组 黑色建材日报 2026-01-23 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3124 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.224%）。当日注册仓单 28244 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.73 万手，环比增加 5016 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 179427 吨, 环比减少 10475 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 145.33 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closing at 3,124 yuan and 3,288 yuan respectively. The iron - water production is expected to decline slightly this week, rebar production will increase, and hot - rolled coil production will decrease. The industry is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Rebar demand has a significant seasonal decline, while hot - rolled coil demand has a relatively small decline. Recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. Consider taking profits on long positions of the steel - ore ratio when the price is high and continue to hold long positions of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3,050 - 3,250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,200 - 3,350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron - ore contract oscillated, with weak price rebound. Support factors for iron ore are reversing. Iron - water复产 falls short of expectations, the negotiation deadlock may change, and steel - mill restocking is gradually being realized. The supply side shows a decline in the global shipment volume of iron ore, and the shipment center has dropped. The demand side indicates that iron - water production remains flat this week, and the port clearance volume has started to decline seasonally, suppressing the pre - holiday iron - water复产 height. Steel - mill profitability has dropped significantly, and the subsequent iron - water复产 space is restricted. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel - mill inventory is increasing at a slower pace. Iron ore is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand, and its price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot market is currently stable. After the price adjustment, coke production is affected by coking coal, and coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. Steel mills are gradually resuming production after the New Year's Day, iron - water production has slightly increased, and steel prices have rebounded at a low level. Overall inventory has slightly increased, and coke supply - demand has improved. Some coke enterprises are starting to resist price cuts and initiate price increases, but the post - holiday market will be loose again, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,600 - 1,800 yuan. Coking coal futures oscillated at a low level. The spot auction price in Shanxi mostly increased, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. The supply side is in the复产 stage, and the demand side is at a low level. With downstream restocking, overall inventory has slightly increased. The post - holiday market supply - demand is expected to be loose, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,000 - 1,200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, but the absolute value is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand side indicates that iron - water复产 may fall short of expectations, and non - steel demand has weakened. The inventory is still at a high level but is declining month - on - month. The cost side shows that alloy manufacturers are starting to replenish manganese ore, which supports the manganese ore price. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5,300 - 5,800 yuan. Ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, and the demand side also shows weakness. The high inventory still exerts pressure on the price, and the price is expected to fall, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, while futures prices had slight increases or decreases. The spreads between different contracts also changed slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was stable, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, rebar production increased by 4.9%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.8%, rebar inventory increased by 3.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material transaction volume decreased by 6.3%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.5%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron - ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron - ore varieties at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 0.4% [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9%, the global shipment volume decreased by 7.9%, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 1.0%, the national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.7%, the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases or decreases. The coking profit decreased by 16 [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions remained unchanged [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 2.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7%, and the port inventory increased by 4.2% [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 3.84 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal CIF price increased by 0.8%, and the Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 3.9% [5]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 2.6%, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.04%, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.24% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 1.04%, and the spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of change. The spreads between different regions and the main contract also changed [6]. Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 0.54%, and the spot prices in different regions remained unchanged [6]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in different origins showed little change or slight decreases. The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.0%, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 4.4% [6]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 35.6%, the arrival volume increased by 38.84%, and the port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.34%, and the ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.34% [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand increased by 1.2%, the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.94%, the daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.6%, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.04% [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 5.44%, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises remained unchanged [6].

黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 22 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 5610 | | 54 | 0 | 108864 | -21998 | 244000 | -11689 | | SM主力合约 5814 | | 28 | -56 | 141601 | 6241 | 356074 | 23782 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | 20 | -80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -70 | ...