Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report On November 4, the ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, the supply remained high while the demand faced downward pressure, and the inventory had been rising recently. For silicomanganese, the supply also maintained a high level, the demand was weakening, and the inventory was accelerating to climb. The strategy was to continue to short on rallies. For single - side trading, due to the increasing steel mill overhauls and high demand pressure, short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5510, down 16 from the previous day and 54 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 148,202 (up 29,682 from the previous day) and an open interest of 158,005 (up 2,702 from the previous day). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5754, down 40 from the previous day and 36 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 170,208 (up 8,798 from the previous day) and an open interest of 359,195 (up 8,981 from the previous day) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For ferrosilicon, the spot prices in different regions showed a stable - to - weak trend, with some areas seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. For silicomanganese, the spot prices dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the manganese ore spot in Tianjin was also stable - to - weak, with the Australian lump in Tianjin dropping 0.2 yuan/ton - degree [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week. The SF - SM spread was - 244, up 24 from the previous day and down 18 from the previous week [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin showed different changes, with the Australian lump down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The prices of semi - coke small materials in different regions remained stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side**: Short on rallies due to increasing steel mill overhauls and high demand pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. - **Important Information**: On the 4th, the quotes of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided. South32's quotes for the December 2025 shipment of South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps to China were flat [7]. Relevant Attachments - **Price Trend Charts**: The report provided the trend charts of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, etc., showing the price changes over different time periods [8][9]. - **Cost and Profit Tables**: The cost and profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were presented. For example, in the ferrosilicon cost and profit table, the production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton [14][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The overall view of the black series futures market on November 4, 2025, is that different varieties have different trends. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level; rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, showing wide - range fluctuations; coke is expected to fluctuate strongly; coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes; and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Variety Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.19%. The position decreased by 5,350 hands to 534,930 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic ore prices in Handan and Laiwu increased by 25 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601 to super - special) increasing by 16.4 yuan/ton [4] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The RB2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,079 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.96%, with an increase in position of 39,567 hands. The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.60%, with a decrease in position of 47,384 hands. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [8] - **News**: In mid - October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises showed different trends. The weekly data on October 30 showed an increase in production and a decrease in inventory for both rebar and hot - rolled coil. Policies supported commercial real estate REITs, and the 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Spread Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Various spreads such as the basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread changed [12] - **News**: On November 3, the prices of ferrosilicon in different regions showed different degrees of decline. In October, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Qinghai increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total output of silicomanganese was about 9.0396 million tons, and the output of silicomanganese 6517 was expected to continue to increase in November and December [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions increased, and most coke prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [17] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [18] Logs - **Price, Volume, and Position Data**: The prices of different contracts of logs showed a downward trend, with different changes in trading volume and position. The spread between spot and futures also changed significantly [20] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]

锰硅周报10.27-10.31 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每周观点 本周观点： 近期硅锰市场震荡偏弱运行，市场观望情绪浓厚。 从成本端来看，本周焦炭二轮提涨落地，焦炭市场短期偏强运 行，锰矿市场暂稳运行。整体成本支撑加强。 从供应端来看，北方5600-5700元/吨，南方5645-5705元/吨，南北方零 售价格均贴近成本线，合金厂仅维持排单生产，生产积极性不高。有个别合金厂由于硅锰行情没有达到预期水平，10 月开始高炉检修，10月份整体开工率相较9月份有小幅下降。进入11月，南北市场表现可能不尽相同。据了解，北方 市场11月份有新增硅锰合金产能，开工率可能存在一定涨幅；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，11月份电价即将上涨， 硅锰生产总成本将显著抬升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China-US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. Although demand remains weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro environment [2] - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The macro situation is a more important factor affecting prices than the weak fundamentals [11] - For industrial silicon, its price is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and is subject to the influence of coking coal futures prices. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [14] - For polysilicon, its supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production cuts, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 123,040 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.919017 million lots, an increase of 39,567 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.422835 million lots, a decrease of 47,384 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - Rebar shows both increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory de - stocking, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remains at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.19% (-17.50). The open interest changed by -5350 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 918,400 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.34 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.61% [4] Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG showing a significant decrease. Shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrivals rebounded rapidly to the highest level of the year after rhythm fluctuations [5] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The profitability of steel mills hit a new low for the year, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to increase, while steel mill inventories decreased. The terminal data was neutral. Fundamentally, pig iron output continued to decline, iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% during the day, closing at 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.47% during the day, closing at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 26 yuan/ton to the futures [9] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [11] - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's market, with relatively low operability [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9140 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+40). The weighted contract open interest changed by -8769 lots to 399,774 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -240 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [13] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,065 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-345). The weighted contract open interest changed by -13 lots to 258,086 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -3815 yuan/ton for the main contract [16] Strategy Views - The supply pressure of industrial silicon persists. Although production cuts continue in the southwest during the dry season, production in the northwest continues to rise, and weekly production has not reached its peak. On the demand side, some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of silicone DMC has decreased and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The cost of electricity in the southwest during the dry season and coking coal prices provide support for the industrial silicon futures price [14] - Some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1083 yuan/ton, down 0.73% (-8). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, a decrease of 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). Among the top 20 long - position holders, 37,089 long positions were reduced today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 36,309 short positions were reduced today [19] - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, down 0.81% (-10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1162 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 48,000 tons. Among the top 20 long - position holders, 64,210 long positions were increased today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 84,522 short positions were increased today [21] Strategy Views - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement due to the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]

Report Title - Iron Alloy Morning Report [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [2] Price Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Spot prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5150 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of -20 yuan; Tianjin 72 export price is 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2] - Futures prices also show different trends for different contracts, such as the main contract at 5526 yuan, up 26 yuan daily and down 38 yuan weekly [2] - Basis, spreads between different contracts, and the spread between silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese are provided [2] Silicon Manganese - Spot prices vary by region, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5650 yuan, down 10 yuan daily and 30 yuan weekly; the main futures contract is 5794 yuan, up 22 yuan daily and down 8 yuan weekly [2] - Similar to silicon ferrosilicon, basis, spreads between different contracts are presented [2] Historical Price Trends - Multiple charts show the historical price trends of silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese in different regions, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis, from 2021 to 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Production data includes monthly and weekly production volumes of 136 sample enterprises in China, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - Export prices at Tianjin Port for different grades are shown over the years [4] Silicon Manganese - Production data includes weekly production volumes in China and purchasing volumes and prices from HeSteel Group [6] - The opening rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China is also provided [6] Demand - Related Information - Demand - related data includes estimated and actual production volumes of crude steel in China, production volumes of stainless - steel crude steel, production and price data of metal magnesium, and the opening rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China [4] - The demand volume of silicon manganese in China is presented [4][7] Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Inventory data includes weekly inventories of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5] - Average available inventory days in different regions of China are provided [5] Silicon Manganese - Inventory data includes daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as weekly inventories of 63 sample enterprises in China [7] - Average available inventory days in China are presented [7] Cost and Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal and silica dioxide [5] - Profit data includes production costs, profits from converting to the main futures contract, and spot profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] Silicon Manganese - Cost - related data includes prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore [6] - Profit data includes profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, as well as profits from converting to the main futures contract [7]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5526, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -38. The trading volume was 118,520, with a daily change of -33,382, and the open interest was 163,466, with a daily change of -5,461 [3]. - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5794, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -8. The trading volume was 161,410, with a daily change of -56,913, and the open interest was 350,214, with a daily change of -2,225 [3]. - The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30. The spot price of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -30 [3]. - The manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with the Australian lump at 39 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), South African semi - carbonate at 34.2 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), and Gabon lump at 39.8 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.1) [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On November 3, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 0.47%, and the SM main contract rose 0.38% [5]. - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak on the 3rd, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. Supply remained at a high level, and demand had a downward pressure due to potential environmental restrictions. The strategy was to short on rallies [5]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 10 - yuan/ton decline. Supply pressure was high, and demand was affected by low profits and environmental production cuts. The strategy was also to short on rallies [5]. - Unilateral strategy: Short on rallies due to increased steel mill maintenance and high demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Important Information - In September 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 2,287,959 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total exports were 20,763,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25% [7]. - The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in October 2025 was 50, in line with expectations and the previous value [7]. Group 4: Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton [14]. - The production cost of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5809 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 149 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5840 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 250 yuan/ton [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年11月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块情绪扰动叠加基本面矛盾，价格宽幅震荡 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 11.32 | -0.70% | -2.41% | 20.77 | 0.15% | 11.08% | | | 进口数量（8月） | 1.03 | 39.52% | 13.21% | 0.17 | -27.67% | -68.47% | | 需求 | 出口数量（8月） | 4.01 | 14.57% | 6.02% | 0.44 | -3.63% | -11.51% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors, including the public consultation on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [6]. - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and raw material port inventory has increased by 6.3 tons. The profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state, and the mainstream steel procurement price in October decreased month - on - month [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - It is expected that the supply pressure will increase in November, and the manganese - silicon inventory will continue to rise. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on capacity replacement in the iron and steel industry, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released. The Fed cut interest rates, and Sino - US leaders met, enhancing market expectations [6]. - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Inventory has rebounded for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly at a high level, raw material port inventory has increased, and demand for hot metal has decreased. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The industry plans to reduce energy consumption by 40%, but supply has not decreased significantly. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 524,000 lots, a decrease of 19,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 44, an increase of 2 points compared to the previous period. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 9,784, a decrease of 35,082 compared to the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron January contracts was 272, an increase of 42 points compared to the previous period [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The basis was - 192 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous period [23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national average daily output of silicon - manganese was 29,675 tons, an increase of 45 tons. The demand for the five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 124,492 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The national silicon - manganese production was 207,725 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and the supply is at a relatively high level [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the national silicon - manganese inventory was 314,500 tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory has rebounded significantly for 5 consecutive weeks [30]. - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the price of Australian manganese ore and South African manganese ore remained unchanged. As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of October 24, the total manganese ore port inventory was 442.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different regions showed different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained in a loss state, but the loss decreased [37][43][47]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons compared to the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in October was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the latest market data and industry news of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and consumption information, but does not provide a clear core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of SiFe2601, SiFe2605, MnSi2601, and MnSi2605 are 5550, 5648, 5842, and 5890 respectively, with changes of -44, -34, -10, and 0 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 151,336, 1,358, 178,345, and 9,340, and the open interests are 166,241, 7,078, 339,837, and 34,714 respectively [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of SiFe:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of SiMn:FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 01 futures spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are - 300 and - 162 yuan/ton respectively; the 2601 - 2605 spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are - 98 and - 48 yuan/ton respectively; the cross - variety spreads of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 and MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 are 292 and 242 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On October 30, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 is 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1][2]. - **Production Information**: In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu is 61.39%, 62.39%, and 41.33% respectively, with different changes compared to September. The expected production in these three regions is 7.04, 15.14, and 5.62 million tons respectively, also showing different changes compared to September. In January, Yunnan will enter the dry season, and some silicomanganese factories will reduce or stop production. The silicomanganese production in Yunnan in October is 6.52 million tons, and the production in Hunan is about 0.66 million tons [2]. - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Zhejiang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5780 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton from the end of September, with a quantity of 1300 tons. Zhongnan Co., Ltd. set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5800 yuan/ton in cash, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].