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宏观点评报告:春节错月影响CPI同比负增长-2025-03-12
British Securities· 2025-03-12 06:36
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since January 2024. This decline is attributed to various factors, including a high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% in February, with production material prices dropping by 2.5%. The report suggests that the PPI decline may continue to narrow as industrial demand recovers [2]. - The report anticipates that with the implementation of consumption promotion policies, the CPI is expected to rebound, despite the current negative growth [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Research - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1%. The CPI also fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, with significant drops in production material prices [2]. - The report notes that the industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI's year-on-year decline may continue to narrow [2]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into various price trends, including a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 3.8% month-on-month due to warmer weather and a drop in pork prices by 1.9% [2]. - The report also mentions that prices in the new energy and artificial intelligence sectors are experiencing upward trends, with certain metal prices increasing [2].
通胀延续惯性-宏观经济专题报告
格林大华期货· 2025-03-10 04:40
Inflation Trends - In February, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.4% decline, following a 0.5% increase in January[1] - The average CPI for January-February showed a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the same period last year, while December's CPI had a 0.1% increase[5] - Food prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year in January-February, compared to a 0.5% decline in December[5] Core CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI for January-February increased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly down from a 0.4% increase in December[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in February dropped by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected 2.1% decline and an improvement from a 2.3% drop in the previous month[9] - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1.86 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[9] Price Movements and Policy Implications - February's PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, following a 0.2% decline in January[10] - The government has set a CPI growth target of around 2% for 2025, down from 3% in 2024, indicating a shift in monetary policy focus[13] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price expectations[13]
中金 • 全球研究 | 国别研究系列之非洲篇:那一片“热土”
中金点睛· 2025-03-06 23:31
Core Viewpoint - Africa is poised for significant growth opportunities driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to enhance regional integration and boost demand for consumer goods, industrial products, and infrastructure [4][6]. Economic Overview - Africa's GDP growth from 2018 to 2023 has been stagnant at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, matching global growth rates [5]. - The economic structure remains largely unchanged, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing 15%, 39%, and 46% to GDP respectively in 2023 [5]. - Africa's integration into the global value chain is low, with merchandise trade accounting for only 2.8% of global trade in 2022, down from 3.5% in 2012 [5]. Trade and Industry - AfCFTA has led to a CAGR of 11.8% in intra-African trade from 2021 to 2023, but intra-African trade still only accounts for 15% of total trade, significantly lower than Europe and Asia [6]. - The internal trade of Africa is characterized by a high proportion of intermediate and manufactured goods, which could foster industrial development and regional capacity integration [6]. - Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in 2023 was only 4.0% of global FDI, indicating a need for improvement in attracting investment [20]. Resource Potential - Africa possesses vast mineral resources, holding approximately 8% of the world's oil reserves and over 90% of platinum group metals [7][41]. - The reliance on resource extraction can lead to economic vulnerabilities, as seen in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has become overly dependent on mining [49][50]. - Botswana serves as a positive example, successfully utilizing diamond revenues to diversify its economy and improve social welfare [52]. Infrastructure Challenges - Africa faces significant infrastructure deficits, with an estimated investment gap of $1.7 trillion by 2040, representing 1.2% of cumulative GDP [8][59]. - Transportation costs in Africa are high, accounting for about 40% of final goods prices, due to inadequate road networks and high logistics costs [8][63]. - The energy infrastructure is also lacking, with nearly half of the population lacking access to electricity, despite Africa having 60% of the world's solar resources [8][60]. China-Africa Relations - China's direct investment in Africa reached approximately $4 billion in 2023, accounting for 2.2% of China's total outbound investment and 7.6% of Africa's FDI [9][10]. - China is Africa's largest trading partner, with trade volume expected to reach about $295.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a growing economic relationship [10][37]. - The trade pattern continues to be characterized by Africa exporting primary products in exchange for manufactured goods from China [39].
供应端、出口等受政策扰动,钴、锑价格走高
Huachuang Securities· 2025-03-03 00:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting price increases in cobalt and antimony due to policy disruptions affecting supply and exports [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the basic metals sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and strong fundamentals. It recommends specific stocks such as Shenhuo Co., Zijin Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while suggesting attention to China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [3][6]. - The suspension of cobalt exports by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to alleviate the current oversupply situation in the short term, although long-term solutions are necessary to address ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][6]. - Domestic antimony prices are projected to remain strong due to tight raw material supplies and increased demand from downstream customers, despite a narrowing price gap with international markets [3][6]. Industry Overview Basic Metals - The report notes an increase in copper inventories, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper stock at 268,300 tons, up 8,246 tons week-on-week. COMEX inventory decreased to 93,481 tons, down 3,460 tons week-on-week [3][6]. - The report highlights the positive performance of basic metals in the medium to long term, with specific recommendations for stocks with growth potential in metal prices and production [3][6]. Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months is expected to impact approximately 70,000 to 80,000 tons of supply, which is about 25% of the annual total, providing temporary relief to the oversupply situation [3][6]. - The report indicates that while this suspension may help in the short term, a long-term mechanism is needed to address the structural oversupply in the cobalt market [3][6]. Antimony Market - As of February 27, domestic antimony ingot prices reached 158,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.8% and a month-on-month increase of 11.3%. The report anticipates that domestic prices will continue to rise due to tight supply and increased demand [3][6]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with clear growth potential in tin and silver production, such as Xingye Silver Tin, and suggests attention to antimony sector stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold [3][6].
绿科科技国际(00195) - 二零二四年十月至十二月季度之生產数量
2025-01-23 08:31
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並表明不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 GREENTECH TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 綠科科技國際有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司) (股份代號:00195) 承董事會命 綠科科技國際有限公司 主席 丹斯里皇室拿督古潤金 P.S.M., D.P.T.J.J.P 附註:回收率表示為總體回收率,其中考慮了計算選礦機及選礦廠的錫損失。 1 本季度錫產量為 3,329 噸,比上一季度的錫產量上升 14.8%。礦石開採品位為 2.10%,較上一 季度上升 0.19 個百分點。季度平均回收率為 81.16%,比上一季度上升 2.2 個百分點。 請注意,本公告中的信息是摘錄自 BMTJV 內部管理記錄,並未經本公司之核數師審核或審 閱。 本公告乃承董事會之命而刊發,各董事願對本公告所載資料之準確性個別及共同承擔責任。 二零二四年十月至十二月季度之生產數量 本公告乃由綠科科技國際有限公司(「本公司」) 自願刊發。 本 ...
锑 | 行业动态:中国海关恢复氧化锑出口编码,内外盘价差有望收窄推升国内锑价
中金有色研究· 2024-11-04 15:37
锑:相对稀缺的战略性中国优势矿种。 "工业味精"锑由于稀缺、难回收等特性被多国列入关键矿产目录。 作为中国的优势矿种,我国在锑矿储量、矿产量、冶炼及回收产量占比上均居全球第一位,2023年占比分 别为34%、47%、89%,其中冶炼及回收产量的30%用于出口。 摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网报道[1],10月30日,中国海关恢复氧化锑出口编码,国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续开始申请 出口许可证,目前出口许可证发放正常。 评论 氧化锑出口许可证发放有望推动出口量好转 。 8月15日[2]我国发布锑出口管制公告以来,8、9月我国锑出 口量环比显著提升。据海关数据,8、9月我国出口锑产品折金属量环比分别+25%/+61%。考虑到锑出口量 自9月15日出口管制正式实施后降为0,而过去三年氧化锑出口占比超75%,我们认为伴随氧化锑出口许可 证的逐步发放,我国锑出口量有望逐步好转。 传统领域需求回暖及光伏玻璃减产速度放缓有望改善整体需求。 据我们测算,2023年锑下游消费结构中, 阻燃剂占比52%,光伏玻璃占比22%。一是我们认为以旧换新政策的逐步落地及家电季节性需求回升有望 带动阻燃剂用锑量增长。二是据隆众石化网,10月31 ...
锚定目标乘势向上 改革奋进再启新程——锡业股份2024年报业绩说明会暨投资者交流会【全景路演】
2024-10-31 00:57
期间费用中财务费用管理费用和销售费用同比均大幅下降同时公司加强地质找矿和冶炼方面关键技术研究力度研发费用同比增长2024年末公司规模净资产208.48亿元同比增长17.19%资产负债率进一步下降至40.19%资本结构进一步优化 受益于公司经营业绩持续增长债务规模不断下降资产债务结构持续优化偿债能力进一步提升2024年公司经营活动产生的现金流量金额34.05亿元同比增长55.25%盈利质量和现金流持续向好 4月2日晚间 西叶股份发布了年度报告2024年公司主动把控经营节奏 抢抓市场机遇财旋也协同联动 不断增强发展动力经营滞效持续稳健向好 西冶股份在不断努力取得业绩增长及高质量可持续发展的同时高度重视对投资者持续稳定合理的投资回报以实际行动回馈广大股东2024年度利润分配预案为美石股派现金红利1.9元含税已派发现金股利3.13亿元 2024年 公司生产有色金属总量36.1万吨其中 新8.48万吨 同13.03万吨 新14.40万吨总产量及新 新产品均创历史新高公司新产品国内市场占有率47.98%较2023年上升0.06个百分点 全球市场占有率25.03%较2023年上升2.11个百分点实现营业收入419.73亿元 ...
感受非洲铜的心跳——刚果(金)-赞比亚铜矿产业链调研报告
中金有色研究· 2024-10-28 09:19
观点聚焦 我们于9月3日至14日组织了前往刚果(金)、赞比亚为期约两周的铜矿产业链深度调研,涵盖了刚-赞铜钴矿带上的主流中资和外资矿企,包括7家上市公 司、12座矿山、3家单体冶炼厂和2家承包商单位,调研时间长、样本多、业态范围广,样本企业均具备较强的代表性和产量成长性。我们认为,短期看,铜 市正迎来国内外宏观经济政策共振向上及供给侧趋紧等积极变化;长期看,铜的新一轮超级周期正在大幕开启。 理由 宏观维度看,非洲虽资源禀赋得天独厚,但其营商环境具有天然的负外部性,使得非洲矿业开发进入壁垒高,运营难度大。 中观维度看,非洲矿业基础设 施改善空间大,非洲铜矿开发大有可为。一是资源侧,刚果(金)利卡西-科卢韦齐一带及赞比亚西北省仍具备较大找矿潜力。二是工艺侧,随着刚果 (金)氧化矿逐渐向混合矿及硫化矿转变,冶炼工艺和硫酸供应格局正在发生变化。三是电力侧,刚果金水电占比超98%,电力不足问题严峻,布局光伏大 势所趋。四是物流侧,当地物流费用贵、耗时长、效率低,未来具备较大优化空间。五是成本侧,基础设施和矿山资源禀赋对成本的影响此消彼长。六是中 资矿企跨文化管理百花齐放。七是中资矿企ESG建设渐入佳境。 铜供给超预期, ...
四川黄金:首次公开发行股票上市公告书
2023-03-01 12:36
四川容大黄金股份有限公司 上市公告书 股票简称:四川黄金 股票代码:001337 四川容大黄金股份有限公司 Sichuan Rongda Gold Co. , Ltd. (住所:木里县乔瓦镇龙钦街26号) 首次公开发行A股股票上市公告书 保荐机构(主承销商) (北京市朝阳区安立路66号4号楼) 二零二三年三月 四川容大黄金股份有限公司 上市公告书 特别提示 四川容大黄金股份有限公司(以下简称"四川黄金"、"公司"、"本公司" 或"发行人")股票将于2023年3月3日在深圳证券交易所上市。 如无特别说明,本上市公告书中的简称或名词的释义与本公司首次公开发行 股票招股说明书中的相同。 本公司提醒投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素,在新 股上市初期切忌盲目跟风"炒新",应当审慎决策、理性投资。 1 四川容大黄金股份有限公司 上市公告书 第一节 重要声明与提示 一、重要声明与提示 (一)本公司及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员保证上市公告书的真实性、 准确性、完整性,承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏, 并依法承担法律责任; (二)深圳证券交易所、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市及有关事项的 ...