证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

Group 1 - The "Technology Board" in the bond market has been launched, with Beijing's state-owned enterprises leading the way in issuing innovative bonds at low interest rates and high subscription rates, showcasing financial support for the national innovation-driven development strategy [1] - In June, Beijing's state-owned enterprises successfully issued a total of 115 billion yuan in technology bonds, with notable issuances including 10 billion yuan from Jingneng Group at a record low interest rate of 1.70% and a subscription multiple of 4.77 times [1] - The bond market's technology board is seen as an important innovation for deepening the structural reform of financial supply, reshaping the financing ecosystem for technology enterprises [1] Group 2 - Beijing's state-owned capital management is implementing the city's strategic development plans by building a complete ecosystem for technology finance, integrating various financial platforms to create a multi-level service system covering the entire cycle of technological innovation [2] - The management platform is focusing on key industries such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, and green energy, establishing eight municipal government investment funds with a total scale of 100 billion yuan to support stable funding for state-owned enterprises and promote industrial transformation [2] - The platform aims to enhance the capital market system, linking and integrating innovative resources to improve service capabilities across the entire chain, while promoting collaboration between financial enterprises and industrial groups [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to repurchase and cancel a total of 27,847,000 restricted shares from 444 incentive targets due to job changes and unmet performance targets in the 2023 stock incentive plan, with a repurchase price adjusted to 1.98 yuan per share [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Repurchase and Cancellation - The repurchase and cancellation of shares involve 14 incentive targets whose job positions have changed, leading to the cancellation of 2,800,000 shares [1][2]. - Additionally, 430 incentive targets did not meet the performance criteria for the second release period, resulting in the cancellation of 25,047,000 shares [1][2]. Group 2: Repurchase and Cancellation Details - The total number of shares to be repurchased and canceled is 27,847,000, affecting 444 individuals [4]. - The repurchase process has been initiated with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, and the cancellation is expected to be completed by June 30, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Changes in Share Structure - Following the repurchase and cancellation, the number of restricted shares will decrease from 61,843,000 to 33,996,000, while the total shares will reduce from 3,767,582,286 to 3,739,735,286 [4]. Group 4: Legal Compliance and Commitments - The company has confirmed that the decision-making process and information disclosure comply with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the rights of incentive targets or creditors [4][5]. - A legal opinion has been obtained confirming that the repurchase and cancellation process has the necessary authorizations and approvals [5].

Core Insights - The report by Ernst & Young highlights a decline in revenue and net profit for listed construction companies in China for the year 2024, with total revenue of approximately 8.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.39% compared to 2023, and a net profit of 209.98 billion yuan, down 15.31% from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue of 34 listed construction companies for 2024 is approximately 8.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.39% from 2023 [1] - The net profit for these companies is 209.98 billion yuan, which represents a decrease of 15.31% compared to 2023 [1] - The average net profit margin for the companies is 2.42%, showing a slight decline from 2023 and 2022 [1] Group 2: Asset and Taxation Overview - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of the 34 listed construction companies amount to approximately 16.21 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.07% [1] - The total asset turnover rate for 2024 is 0.56, indicating a decrease from 2023, suggesting a decline in overall operational efficiency [1] - The total tax amount for the 34 companies is 262.19 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.88% year-on-year, while the overall tax burden rate increased by 0.11 percentage points [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report indicates that various government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, such as optimizing purchase restrictions and providing housing subsidies, will support the construction industry [2] - The introduction of policies related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for modern energy systems and renewable energy development is expected to provide strong momentum for the construction sector [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating innovative technologies like AI, big data, BIM, robotics, and IoT for construction companies to enhance project quality, management efficiency, safety, and environmental sustainability [2]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have dropped below 1000 yuan per gram, with notable reductions from major brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao [1] - The first domestic REITs project for rental housing has been successfully expanded and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating a growing trend in public REITs issuance [1] - The global smart camera market saw a shipment of 33.87 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 4.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] Group 2 - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by nearly 300 yuan within a month, with current prices reported at 1830 yuan per box and 1780 yuan per bottle [2] - Shanghai Lianjia is trialing a new "single agency" model to improve service quality in real estate transactions, separating the roles of agents for buyers and sellers [2] Group 3 - McDonald's and Krispy Kreme have decided to terminate their partnership in the U.S., effective July 2, 2025, due to challenges in matching costs with store demand [3] - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued a warning letter to Chenguang Electric Machine and related personnel for failing to disclose related party transactions properly [4] Group 4 - Shanghai Shimao Construction has been executed for over 16.4 billion yuan due to various financial disputes, highlighting significant legal and financial challenges [4] - Barclays has downgraded ratings for several advertising companies due to concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence, while maintaining a positive outlook for Publicis [5] Group 5 - Guangdong Construction's subsidiary has received approval for a 5.479 billion yuan renewable energy project, indicating ongoing investment in sustainable energy [7] - Demar Technology has signed a sales contract worth 43.39 million USD with MercadoLibre, focusing on smart logistics systems [9] - Boshi Co. has entered into a business contract with Rongsheng Petrochemical valued at 116 million yuan, expected to positively impact future performance [10] Group 6 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, reaching a new high for the year, with significant trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, driven by strong performances in financial and military sectors [11]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing is prioritizing energy conservation and carbon reduction, focusing on a green and low-carbon development path, achieving significant progress in energy efficiency and economic growth since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3] Group 1: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth - Energy consumption intensity in Chongqing decreased by 3.5%, 2.7%, 3.0%, and 3.2% in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a cumulative decline of 11.8% since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The average annual energy consumption growth rate is 2.4%, supporting an average annual economic growth rate of 5.6% [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Organizational Leadership - The Chongqing municipal government has actively implemented national strategies for green development, holding multiple meetings to align with Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thoughts and carbon neutrality goals [2] - Key performance indicators related to energy conservation are monitored monthly, with quarterly assessments to ensure effective policy implementation [2] Group 3: Industrial and Structural Optimization - Chongqing is enhancing its industrial structure by developing key industries such as intelligent connected vehicles and advanced materials, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 34.6% of the industrial added value [2] - The city has launched various energy-saving action plans for major industries, including steel and cement, to optimize energy efficiency [2] Group 4: Energy Transition and Renewable Energy Development - The city is accelerating the construction of cross-provincial energy channels and increasing local renewable energy utilization, with renewable energy installed capacity now accounting for 15.5% of total power generation [2] - New energy projects, such as wind and solar power, have been developed, achieving a 100% renewable energy consumption rate [2] Group 5: Energy Management and Efficiency Improvement - Chongqing has supported 266 projects for reasonable energy use since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on energy consumption dual control and energy-saving audits [3] - The city has implemented a model combining energy efficiency diagnosis, upgrades, and monitoring, providing services to 758 enterprises and conducting energy audits for 1,056 enterprises [3] Group 6: Sector-Specific Energy Efficiency Initiatives - The city is promoting industrial energy efficiency through circular production methods and has established 170 national green factories and 16 green parks [4] - In the construction sector, 99.68% of new buildings are expected to meet green building standards by 2024, with significant progress in prefabricated buildings [4] - Transportation energy efficiency is being enhanced with the expansion of low-carbon transport systems, including the construction of standardized shore power facilities [5]

Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The Guangdong Province has officially issued a work plan to promote sustained economic improvement, focusing on precise support for enterprises, stabilizing employment, boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and ensuring the safety of industrial and supply chains [1][2][3] - Specific measures include supporting e-commerce companies to establish export-to-domestic sales zones and facilitating the participation of new export enterprises in trade fairs [2][3] Group 2: Employment Stabilization - The plan emphasizes stabilizing the workforce through various methods such as salary negotiations, job rotation, and on-the-job training, with specific support for businesses hiring recent graduates and unemployed youth [4][5] - It encourages local governments to provide housing subsidies and increase housing fund loan limits to support first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [4] Group 3: Investment Expansion - The plan aims to enhance effective investment by leveraging a coordinated project management mechanism to accelerate investment in ongoing projects and expedite the commencement of new projects [5][6] - It includes initiatives to promote the issuance and utilization of special bonds, focusing on projects with high investment efficiency and potential [6] Group 4: Resource Allocation and Innovation - The plan proposes the implementation of the "Million Talents Gather in South Guangdong" initiative to improve the market-oriented allocation of resources, enhancing the efficiency of talent, capital, technology, and data [7] - It also emphasizes the need for technological and industrial innovation, aiming to create new economic growth points through major technology projects and brand innovation [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - CIMC Group is focusing on the Middle East as a key area for overseas business expansion and is actively seeking strategic cooperation opportunities with the six Gulf countries [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - The company has established a regional headquarters in the Middle East to facilitate its business development [1] - CIMC Group is pursuing multiple orders in the region, including the delivery of concrete mixer trucks and powder tankers [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Opportunities - The advancement of natural gas supply facility construction in Middle Eastern countries presents new growth opportunities for CIMC's gas storage and transportation equipment [1] - There is significant potential for green hydrogen and energy storage driven by the large-scale renewable power installations in the region [1] Group 3: Recent Contracts - CIMC Anrui signed multiple orders for 4,750 cubic meter butadiene ball tanks with Saudi Arabian chemical giant SABIC, totaling over 60 million yuan [1] - The company successfully secured a contract for the Earth Boutique Hotel project in Saudi Arabia, which will cover a total construction area of 11,000 square meters and consist of 104 modules [1]

Economic Performance - Industrial production shows seasonal weakness, with blast furnace operating rates down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0%[1] - Infrastructure construction remains weak, with cement grinding rates down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6%[1] - Port cargo throughput related to exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices declined, with egg, fruit, and pork prices down by 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively[2] - Industrial product prices rebounded, with the South China Industrial Price Index up 3.1% month-on-month, and the energy and chemical price index up 5.6%[2][57] Market Demand - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities fell significantly, down 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 5.1%[30] - Daily average new home transaction area in first-tier cities dropped sharply, down 38.3% year-on-year to 14.2%[30] - Shipping prices increased significantly, with the CCFI composite index rising by 8% month-on-month, and the West America route rates up 14.8%[45]