宏观层面，今年票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，当前货币政策处于良好区间，美联储或长期维持利 率不变。目前美国通胀仍偏高，今年通胀率或接近3%，需有力证据证明价格持续回落。CME观察工具 显示，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率达80.4%。美国商务部季节性调整数据显示，12月整体零售销售 额环比零增长，远低于市场预期的0.4%，同比仅增2.4%。疲弱的零售销售数据与不及预期的就业成本 指数叠加，进一步强化了市场对美国经济动能放缓的预期。 基本面，供应上，近期电解铝运行产能变化不大，产量小幅增长；需求上，当前处于季节性消费淡季， 且春节临近，铝价波动不定，部分企业提前放假，铝加工企业开工率持续下滑，下游接货意愿低迷，需 求疲软。铝锭社库持续累积，当前库存高于近两年同期，对铝价上行形成压制。不过长期来看，铝供应 增量有限，需求长期向好，供需缺口预期强化，沪铝长期驱动未变。 总体来看，宏观情绪不定，基本面驱动力弱，国内春节休假氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、备库近完成， 且库存累积，今现铝或下跌。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指续跌支撑金属估值但油股表现低迷施压，隔夜伦铝收平；国内春节休假 氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend strategies as a stable investment approach amidst market volatility, highlighting the "Dividend Three Heroes" as a framework for long-term investment planning [1]. Group 1: Dividend Strategy Overview - The "China Securities Dividend Quality ETF" focuses on high-quality companies with solid fundamentals, excluding banks, and aims for a balance between dividend yield and growth potential [3][5]. - The index prioritizes sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals, showcasing a "value growth" characteristic that has historically outperformed mainstream dividend indices [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The "China Securities Dividend Quality Total Return Index" has shown a total return of 588.87% with an annualized return of 17.97% since its inception, indicating strong performance compared to other indices [6]. - The annualized volatility and maximum drawdown of the "China Securities Dividend Quality Total Return Index" are relatively controlled, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile [6][10]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Indices - The "China Securities Dividend Index" includes 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and consistent dividend payments, outperforming benchmark indices for six consecutive years since 2020 [8][10]. - The "Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index" offers a higher dividend yield of 6.83% compared to the "China Securities Dividend Index" at 5.07%, indicating a potentially better value proposition in the current market [14][13]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a diversified approach to dividend investing, combining core defensive positions with growth-oriented and low-volatility options to navigate market fluctuations effectively [19][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

Market Overview - On February 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%[3] - The total trading volume on February 10 was 2.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 150 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The media, home appliance, and coal sectors saw significant gains, while real estate, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced declines[1] - Major inflows of capital were observed in the film and television, IT services, and publishing sectors, while outflows were noted in photovoltaic equipment, military electronics, and batteries[3] Market Sentiment - Market strength weakened compared to Monday, reflected in reduced gains and trading volume[1] - The rise in media and entertainment stocks is attributed to the Seedance 2.0 event and the pre-Spring Festival timing, indicating a short-term speculative nature[1] Investment Strategy - Given the market's recent adjustments, a shift away from short-term thinking is advised, focusing on opportunities post-holiday in sectors like technology, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals[1] - Over 60% of private equity firms prefer to hold significant positions during the holiday, with 70% optimistic about post-holiday market performance[12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The increase in copper inventory restricts price increases [1] - The copper trend strength is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,560, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 101,730, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 13,100, with a daily decline of 0.64% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 207,636, a decrease of 113,998 from the previous day, and the open interest was 565,589, a decrease of 10,639. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,249, a decrease of 2,920, and the open interest was 325,000, a decrease of 1,683 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 165,939, an increase of 8,811. The LME copper inventory was 189,100, an increase of 4,800, and the注销仓单 ratio was 10.30%, a decrease of 0.27% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 77.37, a decrease of 6.42 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 5, a decrease of 30 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: US retail sales in December showed zero growth month - on - month, weaker than market expectations, strengthening market expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - **Industry**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada has suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, and investment in the associated copper refinery will be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease from the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold's newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation [1][3]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillatory adjustment" [1] Key Views - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a daily increase of 3.33%, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a night - session increase of 1.06%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,230 with a decrease of 1.17% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 244,012, a decrease of 35,721 from the previous day, and the open interest was 32,207, a decrease of 1,418. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 460, a decrease of 42, and the open interest was 25,353, an increase of 5 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,385, an increase of 48, and the LME Tin inventory was 7,430, an increase of 400. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 385,700, an increase of 12,200 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 389,800, an increase of 17,200 [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -156, an increase of 1; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 185,830, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,620, a decrease of 9,980 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 371,700, an increase of 12,200. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 375,700, an increase of 12,200 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 255,750, an increase of 8,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 244,750, an increase of 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Shanghai has opened more than 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads and will expand the open range as needed [4] - TSMC's board approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion for the construction and upgrade of advanced process capacity [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global aluminum supply shortage is expected to persist until 2026-2027, leading to an upward adjustment in the profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) and an increase in the target price from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current utilization rate of China's primary aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy limit of 99%, while new overseas production capacity is limited, supporting a sustained global aluminum market shortage [1] - The average aluminum price is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2026, with price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 being raised by 12% and 7%, respectively [1] - Despite an anticipated acceleration in overseas production capacity in 2027, the aluminum shortage is expected to continue, keeping prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Hongqiao's core net profit for 2025 is expected to reach CNY 26.262 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a projected profit growth rate of 34% in 2026 driven primarily by rising aluminum prices [1] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will enhance the company's net profit by 2.3% in 2026, while a 1% decrease in coal prices will boost net profit by 0.3% [1] Group 3: Valuation - Based on a forward P/E ratio of 11 times for 2026, the target price for China Hongqiao has been raised to HKD 45, with future stock price increases expected to rely more on profit growth rather than valuation expansion [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is likely to experience a decline from its high level. Copper's price increase is restricted by rising inventory. Zinc lacks upward momentum. Lead's price is under pressure due to increased domestic inventory. Tin is in an oscillating adjustment phase. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, and alumina is predicted to experience a slight decline. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and palladium will trade in a narrow range. Nickel is affected by news from Indonesia, and the departure of pre - holiday funds limits its upward potential. Stainless steel is experiencing frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and cost support is shifting upwards [2]. Summary According to the Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,125.94 with a daily increase of 3.29%, and the night - session closing price was 1127.00 with a 1.00% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 20873 with a 10.24% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20934.00 with a 5.24% increase. The trading volume and positions of both gold and silver futures decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kg, while the Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces) decreased by 121,403. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31354 kg, and the Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces) decreased by 3,498,075 [4]. - **Macroeconomic News**: Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", suggesting that employment growth may be lower than expected. The UK Prime Minister's political crisis was temporarily alleviated. The US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. Japan's Prime Minister stated that deficit bonds would not be issued to fund consumption tax cuts. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized the refinancing review for high - quality listed companies. Alphabet's US dollar bond issuance is expected to raise $20 billion, and it also plans to issue 100 - year pound bonds [4][6][7][8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,560 with a - 0.27% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 101730 with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Copper decreased compared to the previous day [9]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 8,811 to 165,939, and the London Copper inventory increased by 4,800 to 189,100 [9]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in a smelter, and Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year. Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile, and Harmony Gold's newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24505 with a - 0.24% daily decrease, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3382 with a - 0.03% decrease. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while the positions increased. The trading volume of London Zinc decreased, and the positions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2971 to 34235 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 106750 tons [12]. - **Macroeconomic News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations. Ray Dalio warned that the US is on the verge of order collapse and civil war, and gold is the only safe - haven asset [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16690 with a 0.63% daily increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1974.5 with a 0.46% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the positions increased. The trading volume of London Lead increased, and the positions increased [15]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 4687 to 45460 tons, and the London Lead inventory remained unchanged at 232750 tons [15]. - **Macroeconomic News**: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a 3.33% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a 1.06% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 49,230 with a - 1.17% decrease. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the positions decreased. The trading volume of London Tin decreased, and the positions increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 6,385, and the London Tin inventory increased by 400 to 7,430 [18]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Shanghai has opened over 5200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads. TSMC approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion of artificial intelligence in the tendering and bidding field [18][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23515 with a - 25 decrease. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2835 with a - 33 decrease. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22120 with a - 45 decrease. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed different degrees of change [21]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 26.80 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 16.65 tons, and the London Aluminum ingot inventory was 48.70 tons. The prices of various aluminum - related products and the profits of enterprises also changed [21]. - **Macroeconomic News**: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, and TSMC's January sales increased by 36.8% year - on - year [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 537.50 with a - 1.39% decrease, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 429.05 with a - 2.08% decrease. The trading volume and positions of both platinum and palladium decreased compared to the previous day [25]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump proposed that the US interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials had different views on interest rate policies. In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month. Alphabet plans to issue pound and Swiss franc bonds. Li Qiang called for the rational development of rare earth resources [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 133,350 with a - 1,170 decrease, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,740 with a 5 increase. The trading volume of both Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel decreased [29]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses. China implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production quota and price formula. There were various incidents in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as potential fines for illegal land use, monopoly investigations in a port, and a shipwreck [29][30][32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - **Glass**: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - **Apples**: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - **Oils and Fats**: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance and growing popularity of the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157), which has seen significant trading activity and inflows, indicating a bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 10, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) recorded a turnover of 16.21% with a transaction volume of 239 million yuan, reflecting active market trading [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.664 billion yuan, with a total of 1.715 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [2]. - Over the past three days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 614 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 269 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The nonferrous metals industry is projected to see significant economic benefits, with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reporting that by 2025, the number of large nonferrous metal enterprises will exceed 12,000, a 39.2% increase from the end of 2020 [3]. - By 2025, the total assets of these enterprises are expected to surpass 6.6 trillion yuan, representing an 8.2% growth from 2024, while operating revenue is anticipated to reach 10.2 trillion yuan, a 13.9% increase [3]. - The industry is expected to achieve a record profit total of 528.45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 25.6% increase from 2024 [3]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Dongwu Securities indicates that copper prices may face downward pressure due to increased inventories in major markets and a low-risk environment, with expectations of fluctuating prices leading up to the holiday season [4]. - For aluminum, a decrease in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises is anticipated, which may lead to further growth in domestic inventories and a potential decline in prices [4]. - The gold market remains volatile, influenced by weak labor market data in the U.S. and ongoing cross-asset sell-offs, with expectations for gold to maintain upward momentum in a dual expansion environment [4].