【市场复盘】 【隔夜美股】 【机构观点】 隔夜美股三大股指涨跌不一，道指跌0.48%，标普500指数涨0.3%，纳指涨0.03%。纳指与标普500指数 再创新高。赛富时、亚马逊、苹果均跌超3%，领跌道指。甲骨文大涨36%，创纪录新高，市值超9200 亿美元。英伟达涨近4%。万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.31%，脸书跌1.79%。中概股方面，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数跌0.95%，蔚来跌超8%，爱奇艺跌超6%。恒生指数ADR下跌，按比例计算，收报25977.35 点，较港股收市下跌222.91点或0.85%。 【热点消息】 1、隔夜美股方面，甲骨文公司股价在美股开盘后涨幅超过40%，创1992年以来最大盘中涨幅，市值增 长超2900亿美元。甲骨文在最新的财报电话会上，披露其剩余履约义务（RPO）飙升至4550亿美元，同 比暴增359%。这一爆炸性增长主要源于甲骨文与OpenAI、xAI、Meta等一系列顶尖AI公司签订了大规 模云合同，使其成为AI模型训练的关键基础设施提供商。 9月10日，港股三大指数集体走强。截至收盘，恒生指数涨1.01%，报26200.26点；恒生科技指数涨 1.27%，报5902.69点；国企 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 当地时间9月10日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指下跌220点，纳指与标普500指数再创新高。甲骨 文公布业绩预报后股价飙升。8月生产者价格意外下降0.1%，使市场预计美联储将启动降息。 道指收盘下跌220.42点，跌幅为0.48%，报45490.92点；纳指涨6.57点，涨幅为0.03%，报21886.06点； 标普500指数涨19.43点，涨幅为0.30%，报6532.04点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 45490.92 | 21886.06 | 6532.04 | | -220.42 -0.48% | 6.57 0.03% | 19.43 0.30% | 周三盘中，标普500指数最高上涨至6555.97点，纳指最高上涨至22000.97点，均创盘中新高。 老牌科技公司甲骨文周三股价飙升36%，此前该公司公布的财报显示：主要受AI服务器需求推动，上季 度来自亚马逊、谷歌和微软的多云数据库收入以惊人的1529%速度增长。 美股AI芯片巨头股价也全线暴涨，费城半导体指数大涨 ...

2025 年 09 月 10 日 策略研究团队 港股补涨契机中的资产掘金机会 ——投资策略专题 weijixing@kysec.cn 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 港股补涨的背景与逻辑 自 2025 年"对等关税"冲击至今，港股呈现"健康的"温和震荡上行行情，但 相较 A 股的相对收益明显趋弱，核心或在于以下三方面原因：（1）8 月金管局持 续收紧资金面，3 个月 HIBOR 由 2025 年 08 月初的 1.62%升至月末的 3.30%，上 行约 168bp，1 个月 HIBOR 则由 0.99%升至 3.30%，上行约 230bp，直接压制部 分杠杆资金的融资成本；（2）海外 7 月降息预期落空，美联储宽松预期推迟至 9 月，6 月非农就业整体仍显韧性，失业率下行强化了"经济尚未显著转弱"的判 断，导致降息交易回撤，美债利率上行，全球流动性改善节奏推迟；（3）以"美 团、阿里和京东"为代表的互联网电商平台内卷式竞争加剧压制盈利预期，而 A 股凭借 AI 等产业链与核心宽基的赚钱效应快速扩散，形成流动性驱动的行情， ...

Summary of Conference Call on Gas Turbine Industry Industry Overview - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI demand and increased capital expenditures from global and domestic cloud service providers [1][2][4][5][6] Key Points Capital Expenditure Growth - Global cloud service providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $330 billion in 2024, a 22% year-over-year increase [1][5] - The four major North American cloud service providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta) will see a combined capital expenditure of $201.9 billion, up 56% year-over-year, with a 73% increase in the first half of the year [1][2][5] - Domestic cloud service providers, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, are expected to increase capital expenditure by 105% to $26.5 billion in 2024 [1][6] Market Dynamics - The global gas turbine market is valued at approximately ¥200 billion, dominated by Siemens, GEV, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which hold around 80-90% market share [1][3] - Global gas turbine sales are expected to reach 55.5 GW in 2024, a 38% increase from 2023 [4] Profitability and Order Backlog - Starting in 2023, the North American gas price index has been rising, leading to improved gross margins and net profits for major gas turbine companies from 2024 onwards [1][7] - GEV's backlog has extended to 2028, with new orders in 2024 expected to grow by 113% to 20.2 GW, indicating a strong demand [7] - Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also report significant order backlogs, with new orders reflecting a 1:2 ratio [7][8] Production Expansion Plans - Major companies are planning to expand production capacity, with Siemens aiming for a 30% increase over the next two years and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries planning to double its capacity [8] Upstream Component Market - The upstream component market, particularly high-temperature alloy blades, is dominated by U.S. companies like Howmet and PCC, which have high barriers to entry and strong profitability [2][9] - Howmet's profitability has significantly improved in Q2 2024, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and rising prices [9] Opportunities for Domestic Companies - Chinese companies, such as Yiniu Co. and Haomai Technology, are positioned to benefit from overseas supply shortages and concentrated competition [10] - Other domestic companies to watch include Lian De Co., Fangya Technology, Dongfang Electric, and others, which are expected to experience rapid growth due to their R&D investments [10]

Core Viewpoint - Larry Ellison's wealth is rapidly approaching Elon Musk, threatening Musk's title as the world's richest person due to Oracle's strong quarterly performance and future growth potential [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Oracle's quarterly earnings report exceeded market expectations, leading to a significant increase in Ellison's wealth by $70 billion in one day [1]. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure business is projected to grow by 77% this fiscal year, reaching $18 billion, with continued strong growth expected [4]. - The stock price of Oracle has increased by 46% this year, building on previous gains of 31% and 60% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the earnings report, several investment banks raised their target prices for Oracle, with Wolfe Research increasing its target from $300 to $400, indicating a potential 67% upside [4]. - If the stock price maintains its gains, it could lead to a historic single-day wealth increase for Ellison [1]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Oracle, along with SoftBank and OpenAI, announced a $500 billion investment to develop AI infrastructure in the U.S., named "Stargate" [1]. - CEO Safra Catz highlighted that recent and upcoming booking orders will drive rapid expansion in the cloud infrastructure business over the next few years [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market is showing a "strong Shanghai, weak Shenzhen, and index differentiation" pattern, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.98 trillion, a decrease of 140.4 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating a lack of trading activity and insufficient capital inflow [1] - The market is experiencing rapid rotation of hotspots, with the number of rising and falling stocks being roughly equal [2] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics released the August CPI data, which presents a mixed picture [3] - In August, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month. Specifically, urban prices fell by 0.3% and rural prices by 0.6%. Food prices dropped by 4.3%, while non-food prices increased by 0.5%. The average CPI from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4] - The decline in food prices, particularly for pork and fresh vegetables, is the main reason for the negative year-on-year CPI, reflecting ample agricultural supply but also indicating weak basic consumer demand [4] Sector Insights - Certain sectors such as seasoning, beer, dairy, and meat products, as well as agriculture and livestock farming, may face negative impacts due to the current economic environment [5] - There is a growing preference for stable, high-dividend assets, akin to "bond-like" investments, as evidenced by the performance of sectors like banking, insurance, coal, electricity, public utilities, and highways, which have risen against the trend [6] - The continuous improvement in core CPI, particularly the rise in service prices, indicates resilient demand in service consumption sectors such as tourism, hospitality, dining, and entertainment, which are closely correlated with core CPI trends [6] Stock Performance - Industrial giant "Industrial Fulian" hit the daily limit, with a collective rebound in computing hardware stocks, including Industrial Fulian, Dongshan Precision, and Jingwang Electronics [7] - Positive news from the AI sector has significantly stimulated related concept stocks, including a 27% post-market surge for Oracle, which anticipates a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue for fiscal year 2026, and OpenAI's projected revenue doubling this year [8] - Nvidia's announcement of a new GPU designed for AI workloads further supports the bullish sentiment in the AI sector, with expectations of policy catalysts enhancing market emotions in the short term, despite potential differentiation in previously high-performing segments [8]

受科技股再度上涨以及对美联储将降息提振，全球股市连续第六个交易日走高。 周三，欧股开盘集体上涨， 日韩股市均创收盘历史新高，美国股指期货同样上扬。甲骨文公司美股盘前大涨超29%，预计2026财年云基础设施营 收将增长77%，至180亿美元。台积电美股盘前涨超2%，8月销售同比增长33.8%。 投资者关注本周即将公布的美国通胀报告，将直接影响下周美联储的利率决策以及2025年的降息路径。与此同时，地缘政治风险也在抬头。据央 视新闻，当地时间9月9日，卡塔尔首都多哈北部的卡塔拉地区发生爆炸事件。以色列国防军证实其对哈马斯高级领导层实施了一次精确打击。推 高了石油价格。 聚焦美联储：就业降温与通胀考验 在下周美联储会议召开前，投资者的目光紧紧锁定本周将公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）。这些数据被视为判断联储下 一步行动的核心依据。货币市场目前的预测是，美联储今年将进行两到三次降息。 墨尔本Capital.com的市场分析师Kyle Rodda表示： "从当前的市场风险偏好看，市场似乎相信（降息）足以保护美国经济免于衰退。但一份火热的通胀报告将使情况复杂化，迫使美联储 在劳动力市场和物价稳定之 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI chip market in China is rapidly developing with significant capital expenditure increases. The new B40 chip from NVIDIA, which does not require HBM licenses, is expected to enhance performance by approximately 30% [2] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers such as Huawei, Haiguang, and Kunlun are supported by Deepfake technology and have been certified. Most domestic AI chips are produced using SMIC's 7nm process, although yield and capacity challenges persist [1][2] - The panel market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the TV segment, where prices have stabilized and may rise if sales are strong in Q4, potentially due to preparations for the 2026 World Cup [1][4] Company-Specific Insights - **Kreedo**: Stock price surged due to Q1 2026 earnings exceeding expectations by 60%, with revenue guidance raised by 15%-20%. The company anticipates a 120% year-over-year revenue growth [1][5][6] - **汇顶科技 (Goodix)**: Increased 2025 ultrasonic fingerprint sensor shipment forecast to 40 million units, driven by demand from mid-range smartphone manufacturers [1][7] - **乐鑫 (Espressif)**: Strong demand for WiFi MCU products in IoT applications, expecting a 30% compound annual growth rate in revenue over the next few years [1][7] - **阿里巴巴 (Alibaba)**: Significant investment in GPU procurement despite H20 restrictions, indicating robust domestic AI demand [1][8] - **Oracle**: Plans to significantly expand its global data center footprint by 2026, relying on NVIDIA and AMD for GPU supply [1][9] Capital Expenditure Trends - **八八 (Baba)**: Noted the highest increase in capital expenditure in Q3, maintaining an annual guidance of 100 billion RMB [2][11] - **腾讯 (Tencent)**: Capital expenditure remains stable at 96 billion RMB for the year, with slower growth in cloud services [2][12] - **百度 (Baidu)**: Smaller capital expenditure but showed a significant increase, with a stable growth rate of around 20% expected [2][12] Market Dynamics - The TV panel market is expected to see price increases if Q4 sales are strong, while the mobile panel market is experiencing slight price declines due to weak domestic demand [4] - The power semiconductor sector is witnessing growth, particularly in automotive applications, with Yangjie reporting a 60% year-over-year growth in related business [1][10] Additional Considerations - The overall AI demand in China has significantly increased this year, particularly in the second half, with cloud service providers showing strong GPU procurement activity [1][8] - Concerns regarding depreciation expenses have diminished as major companies report figures in line with expectations, allowing focus to shift to revenue growth and profit margins [2][15] - Baidu may have opportunities to reduce capital expenditures in the next quarter as it focuses more on internal development [2][16]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.36% to 25,417.98 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.23% to 5,687.45 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.22% to 9,057.22 points [1]. Capital Flow - The net inflow for the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai to Hong Kong) over the past five days was +16.62 billion, while the Shenzhen to Hong Kong net inflow was +16.44 billion. Over the past 20 days, the inflow was +44.23 billion for Shanghai and +67.03 billion for Shenzhen. For the last 60 days, the inflow reached +149.06 billion for Shanghai and +181.86 billion for Shenzhen [5]. Sector and Stock Performance - The technology sector exhibited mixed performance, with Alibaba (9988.HK) surging over 18% on Monday, driven by its announcement of a 380 billion capital expenditure and a robust growth target of 1 trillion GMV over the next three years. The integration of AI-driven e-commerce and cloud services further strengthened its narrative [5]. - The robotics sector remained active, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasizing the strategic importance of the humanoid robot Optimus, increasing industry interest. In China, Yushu Technology is expected to submit its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Q4, boosting related high-end manufacturing and medical device stocks, including MicroPort Robotics (2252.HK), which saw a weekly increase of over 30% [5]. - The energy storage sector continued to rise, supported by policies and demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's action plan aims to improve product quality and industry structure in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors. The demand for energy storage systems is expected to grow significantly, with independent storage shipments projected to increase by nearly 30% year-on-year by 2025. Leading companies like Innovation航 (3931.HK) saw their stock price rise nearly 29% due to strong fundamentals and new partnerships [6]. Gold Market Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released last Friday fell short of expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has strengthened market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of over $3,600 per ounce, with Morgan Stanley raising its year-end target price to $3,800 [7]. AI Application Developments - The AI application sector has become a focal point, with the release of Google's new AI model, Nano Banana, which can generate 3D model images from photos. This has raised concerns about the impact on companies like Meitu (1357.HK), which saw its stock drop over 13% on Monday and a total decline of 17% for the week. However, Meitu's core strengths lie in its deep understanding of consumer needs and its focus on niche markets, which may provide resilience against competition from general models [8]. Upcoming IPOs - Two significant IPOs are worth noting: Hesai Group is launching a global offering and dual primary listing in Hong Kong, with a maximum price of HKD 228 per share, raising approximately $148 million. Zijin Gold International is expected to list in Hong Kong this month, aiming to raise over $3 billion, potentially becoming the second-largest IPO globally this year amid high gold prices [8]. Market Outlook - The quarterly review of the Hang Seng Index will take place on September 5, with changes effective from September 8, including the addition of China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart. This may lead to increased trading volume and stock price volatility. Additionally, Apple's upcoming product launch event on September 9-10 is anticipated to boost confidence in the supply chain, potentially leading to a valuation recovery for related stocks [8].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing significant growth driven by AI-related stocks, with a 32% increase in 2024 and a further 17% rise in 2025, leading to a high expected P/E ratio of 22 for the S&P 500, which is in the 96th percentile historically [1][2] Group 1: Market Valuation and Growth Expectations - Current market prices imply a long-term earnings growth expectation of about 10%, slightly above the historical average of 9%, but well below the 16% during the 2000 tech bubble and 13% at the 2021 peak [2] - The average expected P/E ratio for the top five tech giants (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon) is 28, significantly lower than the 40 at the 2021 peak and 50 during the tech bubble [2] Group 2: AI Investment and Infrastructure - Goldman Sachs categorizes the evolution of AI trading into phases, with the current phase being a "frenzy of infrastructure investment," fueled by substantial capital expenditures from major cloud service providers, which are projected to reach $368 billion by 2025 [3] - This massive investment is translating into increased orders and profits for suppliers of semiconductors, power equipment, and technology hardware, driving their stock prices up [3] Group 3: Risks and Market Sentiment - There is a warning regarding the potential slowdown in capital expenditures, which could lead to a 15-20% correction in stock valuations if spending reverts to 2022 levels, impacting S&P 500 expected sales growth by approximately 30% [4] - Analysts predict a significant deceleration in capital expenditure growth by late 2025 and into 2026, which poses a risk to the valuations of related stocks [4] Group 4: Future Market Phases - As the infrastructure investment phase peaks, the market is looking towards the next phase, where AI-enabled companies are expected to drive revenue growth [5] - Investor interest in the "third phase" companies, particularly in the software sector, is limited due to concerns about AI potentially disrupting existing pricing models and profit margins [6] - The long-term "fourth phase" of AI-driven productivity improvements is still in its early stages, with only 58% of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI in earnings calls, but few can quantify its impact on current profits [6]